QUESTIONS ABOUT NATIONS' NUCLEAR ABILITY MAKE US POLICYMAKING COMPLEX

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000504480016-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2012
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: May 23, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504480016-7
1
ARTICLE AP! ?RR
011 PAGE_ CHRISTIAN SCIENCE T10NITOR
23 ray 1985
Questions about nations' nuclear ability make US
policymaking complex
By George D. Moffett III man said Israel stands by its policy that it "would not be
staff writer or The Christian Science monitor the first country t o introduce nuclear weapons i n t o the re-
Wastringlo~ gion." In a separate statement, the U S State Departmeu',
said it could not confirm the Aerospace Daily report.
Do Israel and South Africa know 'more about nuclear Some critics have also dismissed the report on South
weapons than they say they do? Africa, saying the new evidence cited - according to one
Two recent reports - both of which have been chal- US'expert on nuclear issues - "may be pretty thin gruel
lenged - say they might: - to make a porridge."
? The trade journal Aerospace Daily last week said it Shortly after the US Air Force "Vela" satellite re
had confirmed an earlier report that Israel has deployed corded a light flash, a special commission of scientists
several intermediate-range Jerico II missiles armed with cappointed by then President Jimmy Carter concluded
nuclear warheads. According to an unnamed US source acited in the article, the missiles - which are mounted on that the ph '-omenon was probably caused by some
erector-launcher trucks and which have a range of -700 "space". event, possibly a collision with a small meteroid.
kilometers - have been deployed in the Negev Desert But the South Africa study says that data obtained
and the Golan Heights. The report says the Jerico mis- from the US Naval Research Laboratory under the Free-
siles are part of a large, growing Israeli nuclear force. dom of Information Act - data it says was disregarded
? The Washington Office on, Africa Educational by the Carter group - confirms that the light flash was
Fund, an anti-apartheid group, says it has new evidence actually evidence of a nuclear test. The report says the
that South Africa and Israel may have collaborated on a Defense Intelligence Agency and the Central Intelligence
nuclear test in 1979. The report; which cites data on seisency "joined the NRL in its determination that a nu
mic disturbances and high levels of radioactivity among clear bomb had been detonated."
Australian sheep, says a double flash of light recorded a report also charges the Carter administration
by a United States Air Force satellite over the South At with a cover-up, saying confirmation of a nuclear test
lantic in September 1979 was probably the "signature" would have adversely affected Carter foreign policies in
of a nuclear explosion. the Middle East and southern Africa and jeopardized the
Neither report has been conclusively confirmed. But support of Jewish voters in an election year.
they illustrate the extent to which policymakers are ,Our report stops short of saying that South Africa
forced to deal in a shadowy world of speculation. , I developed the bomb - but we are saying there's suffi-
"These could be extraordinary historical events," I cient evidence to reopen the case," says Rep. John
says Leonard Spector of the Carnegie Endowment for Conyers Jr. (D) of Michigan, one of the sponsors of the
International Peace. "But at best, we're dealing with ; report.
possibilities, not definitives. The Israeli case is purely Mr. Conyers says he plans to introduce an amend-
speculative. In South Africa, we're not only not sure ment to the pending anti-apartheid act that would pro-
7 whether there was a test, we're not even sure who might hibit the sale of nuclear technology to South Africa.
have conducted it. - Sources interviewed here say that while the South Af-
"It's like the famous Heisenberg principal, in reverse: rica report may cast doubt on the Carter panel's findings,
The more important the event, the harder it is to, know it may not be conclusive.
whether it actually occurred or not." "The technical community most familiar with nuclear
Israel has long been assumed to have the technical ca- weapons believed the most logical explanation [for the
pacity to manufacture and assemble nuclear explosive flash] was a nuclear test," says Rodney Jones, a nonpro-
devices - perhaps within weeks or even days in an liferation specialist at Georgetown Center for Strategic
and International Studies in Washington. "But there just
emergency.
"We've known for years that Israel is within a screw- wasn't enough collateral evidence to prove it. There were
driver's turn of having a nuclear arsenal," says one too many ambiguities in the readings.
knowledgeable arms control specialist. Whether true or not, experts in nuclear nonprolifera-
But according to the Aerospace Daily report, Israel tion say the two reports highlight the difficulty of con-
has already crossed the nuclear threshold, becoming a tanung the spread of nuclear technology. That problem
small but full-fledged member of the nuclear club. was underscored last week, when a California business-
Reports of the Jerico II deployments, says Aerospace man was indicted by a federal grand jury on charges of
Daily's unnamed source, are "only the tip of the illegally exporting to Israel 800 devices used to trigger
iceberg." nuclear weapons.
Reports said the man allegedly purchased the devices,
Many here question the authenticity of the Aerospace known as "krytrons," from 'a Massachusetts firm, then
Daily report, saying the deployment of nuclear forces shipped
them to an Israeli trading company without li-
would be too easily discovered and would be contrary to censing approval from the US government. Such ap-
Israel's own interests. proval is required under the Arms Export Control Act.
"No doubt Israel has the components in hand, but it's "It's incredible," adds one Senate aide. "You can just
unlikely they would deploy a weapon;" says another buy krytrons here, stuff them in your pocket, take a trip
senior arms control specialist. "For one thing, such a to Europe, and never be searched. It raises real questions
move would lend impetus to the development of an about unregulated commercial markets."
Islamic bomb." Israel has denied that the krytrons have been used for
In a statement yesterday, an Israeli Embassy spokes-
nuclear weapons purposes.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504480016-7