WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT FOR EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000300250044-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 6, 2011
• Sequence Number: 44
• Publication Date: February 25, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington. D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC No. 00966-85/1
25 February 1985
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report for Europe
1. Attached is my report to the DCI based on our meeting held 20
February 1985. If there are any significant amendments or additions you
would wish to make, please let me know.
2. Next month's warning meeting will be on 20 March 1985 at 1015 in
room 7-E-62. CIA Headouartars Please have your clearances passed and
call with names of the attendees by noon, 19
Marc 1985.
3. I also encourage you to phone in suggestions for the agenda and
proposals to make opening presentations. It would be helpful to have
your comments for the next meeting by Monday, 11 March 1985.
George Kolt
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National Intelligence Council
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC No. 00966-85
25 February 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: February Warning and Forecast Report
I. The Main Topics
1. Greece-Turkey: The Rising Strains
A. Discussion
Steadily rising tensions are increasing the risk of serious
incidents due to mutual misperceptions. Analysts, nonetheless,
believe that neither side wants a violent confrontation, an
attitude that explains the low-key treatment by both sides of an
alleged shooting scrape between border guards in Thrace in early
February.
The trends, however, are bad. The forthcoming Greek
parliamentary elections campaign could cause new problems if
Papandreou chooses to whip up anti-Turkish sentiment in his
campaign. For their part, the Turks appear to be losing
patience and "feeling wimpish". They believe themselves
ill-used by the West which, by their lights, presses for
pointless concessions to Greece and by the Greeks who appear
unrelenting.
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Another complication for Turkey is Bulgaria's brutal
suppression of its Turkish minority with only minimal protests
from Turkey's allies. Upwards of 400 Turks have probably been
killed for resisting the military-enforced "name change" drive
in rural areas of the southwest and northeast Bulgaria. Sofia's
precise motives are unclear but Soviet approval of the campaign
is presumed likely. Turkey has not complained too loudly as it
depends on surface access to West Europe across Bulgaria,
because its power to influence Sofia is practically nil, and it
does not want to create the appearance of speaking for Turkish
kin in Soviet Central Asia. But internal pressures in Turkey
are increasing and Ozal has recalled the Turkish Ambassador for
consultations and allowed parliament to debate the issue in a
closed session. The issue may also exacerbate civil-military
relations if some Turkish military leaders come to feel that
Ozal has not been forceful enough in upholding the nation's
interests.
2. Portugal: Weaknesses in the Governing Coalition
A. Discussion
The stability of the Socialist-Social Democrat (PSD)
coalition improved recently as the PSD strengthened its
leadership and thus made itself a more stable coalition
partner. Barring an unexpected turn of events, President
Reagan's visit in May should find Lisbon's leaders reasonably
united, although the Presidential elections in December will be
hard-fought.
The resignation of the indecisive PSD leader Mota Pinto as
deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister early this month
paved the way for his replacement by Rui Machete, who has a
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1 SECRET
reputation for avoiding PSD factionalism while dealing as an
equal with the Socialists. His known positions on defense
issues, moreover, suggest continuity in this sector.
The rivalry between President Eanes and Socialist party
leader and Premier Mario Soares remains an open problem. But
Eanes recently has muted both his criticism of Soares and his
threats to call early parliamentary elections. Since President
Eanes cannot call for new elections within six months of the
December Presidential elections and the coalition appears
unlikely to dissolve for other reasons, there could be a period
of calm lasting into the usual summer doldrums.
3. The "Euro-Terrorist Threat": The Official Response
A. Discussion
The recent resurgence of terrorism in Western Europe and
the growing evidence of coordination have led to increased
governmental contacts that are giving higher-level and more
visible approval to previous commitments on working level
cooperation. They show firmness to national audiences and to
the terrorists and may improve existing cooperation. The major
bilateral advances include: the Franco-German summit on
terrorism--which called for a united front, a joint operations
working grou hotline communications and
controls;
and some hints that Paris might extradite some of the 200 to 250
Italian terrorists as a partial response to Italy's persistent
public demarches.
Multilateral cooperation is also improving a bit. Concern
about security for the summit in West Germany has spurred
anti-terrorist coordination. Due to unusually high French
concerns, Paris has approved discussions on terrorism in the
NATO/NAC. And Italy, as head of the EC for this six month
period, is raising the issue in relevant EC political fora.
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Many obstacles remain however. Progress is uneven, as some
countries have weak anti-terrorist programs. And political
restraints--such as reluctance to enforce unpopular border
controls, France's commitment to its reputation as a sanctuary
for political exiles and the West Germans' strong aversion for
new police powers--are likely to inhibit effective actions.
II. Monitoring Items
1. Hungary: Preparing for The Thirteenth Congress.
Rumors that Kadar might step down have receded as the 25-26
March event approaches. Speculation now forecasts a gradual evolution of
a "mechanism for succession". There are new rumors of a cultural
crackdown following the purge of an editor for publishing a poem reviving
the issue of Imre Nagy's execution.
Irecen price es were not handled
smoothly and the complaints suggest continuing tension on market-style
reforms is likely.
2. Poland: Jaruzelski's Post-Trial Crackdown
The arrest of seven Solidarity leaders, rumored charges against
Lech Walesa and continuing criticisms of the Church's political role
have dispelled any notion that the much-publicized trial and the
conviction of Father Popieluszko's murderers could pave the way for a
genuine dialogue between the regime and Society. A 15-minute work
stoppage on 28 February called by Solidarity to protest price rises
may be used by the government as a pretext for a further crackdown.
3. Belgium: The INF Decision
Despite confusion in official statements in Brussels, analysts
believe deployments of the first sixteen INF missiles will take place
by June or July. The next deployment (now scheduled for mid-1986),
however, might become part of a compromise through linkage to
progress in the Geneva talks. The center right coalition moreover
faces a close race in December parliamentary elections and a go ahead
decision on INF deployment will increase its vulnerability.
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4. West Germany: The Prospects for the FDP and Genscher
The Free Democratic party is likely to make a poor showing in
elections in the Saarland, Hesse and Berlin on 10 March. It is,
however, not likely to withdraw from the governing national
coalition. Although the replacement of its long-time leader Hans
Dietrich Genscher by Martin Bangemann at the Saarbrucken congress
went smoothly, tensions are likely as Genscher will probably try to
retain a guiding role in party affairs. Further, Genscher may want
to maintain a high personal profile by undertaking foreign policy
actions not entirely consistent with Chancellor Kohl's wishes.
George Kolt
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