WEST GERMANY: GENERAL ECONOMIC DATA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP02-06156R000101390001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 1, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/01 : CIA-RDP02-06156R000101390001-9
WEST GERMANY: GENERAL ECON MIC DATA
Population (1985): 61.0 Million GDP (Purchaser's Value)/Capita:
$10,192
Total Output (Billion $US - 1985 Exch Rate)
1983 1984
1985
1986*
GDP (Purchaser's Value - Current Prices)
567.1 593.8
621.7
651.5
25X1 GDP (Constant Prices - % Change by Year)
-1.5 2.7
2.4
2.8
Cost-of-Living Index (1980 = 100)
116 118
121
121
Domestic demand, led by private consumption, has replaced the trade balance as the
driving force behind economic expansion, and West Germany will probably record real growth
of nearly 3 percent in 1986. Growth next year was also initially projected to be about 3
percent, but this expectation is now regarded as optimistic because of the effects of a
stronger deutsche mark on trade, and the belief that the current surge in domestic demand
will not last. To avert a slowdown, many experts, including West Germany's five leading
economic institutes, are now pushing Bonn either to speed up scheduled tax cuts or to
accelerate its planned tax reform. Reducing the budget deficit remains Finance Minister
Stoltenberg's top fiscal priority, however, and Bonn is unlikely to accede to these calls
25XlLess markedly slower growth is apparent by the spring.
Unemployment has steadily dropped this year and currently stands below 8
percent. It remains above the politically sensitive 2-million level, however, and Bonn
sees little hope of reducing it much further in the near and medium term. The German
economy is projected to produce only 250,000 jobs in 1987, 50,000 less than this year.
The inflation rate is expected to be slightly negative this year, reflecting the sharp
drop in both oil and food prices, due in part to the appreciation of the deutsche mark.
Christian Democrat Chancellor Kohl is counting on the country's relatively strong
performance on growth and inflation to offset any concern over lingering unemployment when
25X1?ers go to the polls on 25 January to elect a new national government.
Monetary growth will overshoot its 5.5-percent upper target range this year,
largely as a result of the Bundesbank's efforts to slow the decline of the US dollar.
This excessive monetary growth has been used by the Bundesbank in recent months to
rationalize its refusal to lower the West German discount rate, thus exacerbating an
economic dispute with the United States. Washington has argued that lower German interest
rates would-among other things-alleviate West Germany's large bilateral trade surplus
with the US. This surplus reached a peak of $25 billion this year, but is expected to
decline in 1987.
TRADE AND PANT'S (Billion $US, BOP Basis)
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
Balance of Goods and Services
Current Account Balance
Long-Term Capital
Total Reserves Minus Gold (yearend)
1983
1984
1985
1986*
208.9
209.3
223.7
276.0
194.9
192.2
199.3
235.0
14.0
17.1
24.4
41.0
4.2
6.8
13.8
35.0
-3.0
-5.3
-2.2
8.0
42.7
40.1
44.4
48.9**
* Estimated
** September
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/01 : CIA-RDP02-06156R000101390001-9