ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150053-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 53
• Publication Date: December 11, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8232/74
11 December 1974
Copy N2 421
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Giscard's Views on Economic Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
World Oil Surplus Could Reappear by Mid-1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Notes, Publications of Interest, Statisti^s
Evidence of the Widespread Recession under way in the industrialized countries
is mounting. Third-quarter GNP declined or stagnated in four of the five major
countries for which data are available. The slump was led by a drop of 7% (annual
rate) in West Germany. Even if output does not decline further in the current
quarter, GNP in these countries will be down an average 1% (annual rate) in this
half year. Weakness in business demand for investment goods and in net foreign
demand for industrial products have now emerged as key factors. Shrinking demand
in major developed countries has dampened growth in other countries highly
dependent on export markets -- for example, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan.
At the EC Summit Meeting, members backed the French proposal for a
tripartite conference on oil in exchange for agreement by Paris to prior consultations
among industrialized consumers. A lengthy session on the need to cope with
worsening unemployment resulted only in an echoing of earlier calls for reflation
by those countries that can afford to do so. Participants agreed on a $1.3 billion
regional fund to aid depressed regions of Italy, the United Kingdom, and Ireland.
Cabinet Choices by Japanese Prime Minister Miki point to a continuation of
present restrictive economic policies until wage settlements are reached in the spring.
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Socnt
Finance Minister Ohira retains his post, and former Finance Minister Fukuda,
architect of the tough anti-inflation program, will serve as deputy prime minister
and head of the Economic Planning Agency. In foreign economic policy the new
government is expected to court the oil exporters even more assiduously.
Gold Prices recovered after falling sharply on 3-4 December in the wake of
Secretary Simon's gold auction announcement. Gold was fixed at $178 an ounce
in London yesterday afternoon, up $3.75 from the 4 December fixing which
followed the Secretary's announcement. Traders estimate that anticipated US
private demand is buoying the price by as much as $30.
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OPEC INVESTMENT IN UNITED STATES GROWS
Investment by OPEC nations in the United States - largely bank deposits
and short-term government securities -- has doubled since Tune, to at least $16
billion. Another doubling is likely by the end of 1975 if OPEC countries merely
maintain the present geographic distribution of their holdings.
Preference for Investment in United States
OPEC investment in the United States has accelerated since the end of the
Arab oil embargo and the subsequent mushrooming of oil receipts.
? OPEC oil receipts rose from $12 billion in the first quarter of 1974
to $22 billion in the second quarter and to $30 billion in the third
quarter. They are expected to remain at $30 billion in the fourth quarter.
? As OPEC funds flowed into Western financial markets, the share of assets
held directly in the United States rosy from 13% at the start of 1974
to 24% by the end of November.
This sharp growth in investment in the United States reflects the inability
of the OPEC countries to find attractive alternative investment outlets for surplus
petrodollars. Saturated with the short-term deposits preferred by OPEC members,
many of the largest banks in Europe are accepting additional petrodollars only
at a discount from market interest rates. Although small and medium-size banks
in Europe would welcome additional short-term deposits, the oil producers are
only gradually expanding the number of institutions with which they do business.
Sterling assets have also became less attractive because of growing concern
about a further depreciation of the pound. London's recent decision not to extend
sterling guarantees beyond the end of 1974 has heightened doubts about sterling's
future. Although the oil producers would probably like to increase the share of
their investment in the stronger European currencies, they are limited by capital
controls and the small size of the markets for these assets.
The premium placed on .,ccurity and liquidity is clearly reflected in the
composition of OPEC assets in the United States. Short-term bank deposits and
government securities account for nearly 90% of the total.
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OPEC Countries: Estimated Investment
in the United States, by Type of Asset
30 September 1974
Total 11.8
Bank deposits 6.1
Call, demand, overnight 2.2
Other short term 3.8
Medium and long term 0.1
Government securities 4.8
Short term 4.4
Medium and long term 0.5
Other, including real
estate and equities 0.9
OPEC Countries: Estimated Foreign Investment
30 September 1974
Billion US $ Investment in
the United States
Total Foreign Investment hi as a Percent of
Investment the United States Total Investment
Total 53.5 11.8 22
Algeria 2.0 Some Negi.
Ecuador 0.3 0.1 33
Indonesia 1.6 0.8 50
Iran 6.3 1.1 17
Iraq 3.0 0.3 10
Kuwait 8.6 1.9 22
Libya 5.2 0.7 13
Nigeria 4.0 1.6 40
Qatar 0.7 0 0
Saudi Arabia 13.9 2.3 17
United Arab Emirates 3.0 Negl. Negi.
Venezuela 4.9 3.0 61
Major Investors
Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria, and Iran account for nearly 85%
of OPEC investment in the United States. Kuwait has the largest single share of
US investments other than bank deposits and government securities, including
substantial investments in real estate.
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OPEC Countries: Estimated Foreign Investments
Foreign Investments
OPEC Foreign Investments
in the United States
2,
;'
11319
Dec
1975
11196`,.
Mar
1974
Share of OPEC Investments
in the United States
In addition to the $16 billion of direct OPEC holdings, OPEC countries have
apparently channeled additional funds to the United States through Switzerland
and the Bahamas. Swiss and Bahamian holdings in the United States have increased
about $4 billion this year, compared with a normal growth of $500 million. Much
of the difference is believed to be accounted for by OPEC funds.
Prospects
OPEC investment in the United States will probably continue to increase both
absolutely and as a share of total foreign investment. Assuming no substantial
change in oil prices or oil production, OPEC foreign assets should grow by $75
billion in 1975. Even if producers continue to invest only a quarter of their surplus
in the United States, direct OPEC holdings in the United States would reach $35
billion at yearend 1975.
5
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DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: MORE DATA ON THE SLUMP
Evidence on the widespread recession under way in developed countries
continues to mount.
In the third quarter, GNP declined or stagnated in four of the five major
countries for which data are available. Only the United Kingdom showed a rise.
Among the smaller countries, Australia suffered a particularly sharp decline.
Developments in major foreign countries were as follows in the third quarter:
? In West Germany, GNP fell at an estimated annual rate of 7%, pushing
output below the year-earlier level for the first time since 1967.
? In Japan, GNP declined at an annual rate of 0.8% after an 18% drop
in the first quarter and a slight increase in the second.
? In Canada, GNP remained stationary for the second consecutive quarter,
after growing at a 6% annual rate in the first quarter.
? In the United Kingdom, output rose at an annual rate of 4%, recovering
to a level only slightly above the quarterly average of 1973.
Developed Countries: Projected GNP Trend
Second Half of 1974
Percent Change over the First Half 1
OECD Estimate
Assuming No
Change in GNP
from Third to
of Nov 1974
Fourth Quarter
United States
-1.2
-1.5
Japan
3.0
0.1
West Germany
0
-3.6
United Kingdom
5.0
3.8
Canada
2.5
0
Weighted average
of the five
0.2
-1.0
1. At seasonally adjusted annual rates.
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Developed Countries: Trend In GNP
Seasonally Adjusted
Index: 1st Qtr 1973=100
1974
1. Gross domestic product.
Sluggish spending on investment and weakness in net foreign demand are major
factors in the slump in the third quarter. West German investment, for example,
dropped at an annual rate of 8%. A 10% decline in the volume of exports of
goods and services also contributed to the poor West German showing. In the United
Kingdom, a rebound in consumer expenditures provided the impetus for recovery.
These data point to an even worse economic performance in the current half
y;ar than recently projected by the OECD Secretariat. It' no change in output
occurs from the third to the fourth quarter, GNP in the five major countries will
decline at an average annual rate of 1% from the first half of 1974. In November,
OECD estimated a 0.2% gain in the second half of 1974.
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GISCARD'S VIEWS ON ECONOMIC ISSUES
French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing will go to the Martinique meeting
with President Ford as the leader of a country belatedly caught in the world
economic slowdown.
The French economy maintained an acceptable pace through the summer.
then slumped. Real growth in GNP nonetheless should top 4% for 1974 as a whole,
an achievement most Western countries will envy. Like many of his Western
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colleagues, the French leader is bedeviled by simultaneous inflation and recession
at home and high oil prices and unbalanced trade abroad.
Domestic Policy Options
Because of the threat of labo, unrest that could shake his political base, Giscard
probably will case the austerity program launched last June to slow inflation and
balance the trade account. Under that program, political considerations forced
Giscard to aptly restrictions to the business sector rather than to consumers.
Enterprises will also have to foot most of the bill for a new program guaranteeing
up to a year's take-home pay for laid-off workers. Paris similarly is likely to maintain
the corporate tax surcharge imposed last June, although credit restraints probably
will be relaxed soon.
industrial production dropped by 2% in September, and the decline continues.
Foreign and domestic orders are down; inventories are rising; and the key
automotive industry, which had been holding up surprisingly well, is slumping badly.
Surveys of business expectations indicate a downturn in the textile, chemical, and
construction industries.
The number of unemployed increased by 20% from August to October, as
school graduates entered the labor force following the summer vacation. Although
few firms are laying off workers, most are unwilling to hire. Unemployment
probably will reach 3.0% this winter, compared with 2.6% now and 1.9% a year
ago.
Giscard's policy decisions must take into account an inflation that continues
at a politically risky 15% pace - only slightly below the peak rate reached earlier
as a result of spiraling oil costs. Wage increases averaging 20% or better have been
shoving np unit labor costs. The firm stand by the government against the postal
workers' strike last month improves chances for avoiding even larger wage hikes.
The recent decline in wholesale prices and in the costs of imported raw materials
also ate hopeful signs. Nevertheless, double-digit inflation is likely to persist through
most of 1975.
Higher oil costs have caused a shift in the French trade balance from a
moderate surplus to a large but manageable deficit. The trade deficit has stabilized
at an annual level of $4.5 billion, w~*.h the current account deficit running about
$2 billion higher. A good credit rating is permitting the gap to be covered with
little difficulty.
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FRANCE.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Percent
2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5
II III IV 1 II III
1973 74
CONSUMER PRICES TRADE BALANCE 7
Percent change over previous quarter Million US $
at an annual rate
I I I I I I
I II III IV I II III
1973 74
495
362 379
I II III IV I II 111
1973 74
EXPORT VOLUME 7
Percent change over previous quarter
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION/
Percent change over same quarter
of previous year
8.3 8.8
7.7
5.9
4.8
1 I I I I I
I II 111 IV 1 11 III
1973 74
1.8
0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 II III IV I
1973 74
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Although Giscard still has not publicly backed off from balancing the trade
account by the end of 1975, this goal has been made even more unrealistic by
his favoring domestic consumers at the expense of exports. Despite efforts to limit
oil imports and to boost foreign sales of industrial equipment, the trade deficit
in 1975 will approximate $4 billion.
Key International Issues
At the Martinique meeting, President Giscard will emphasize general areas of
agreement with the United States on energy policy without, however, offering
wholehearted cooperation. He also will avant to discuss the responsibility of the
major Western governments for combating international inflation/recession.
Energy - Giscard's call for a conference of oil consumers and producers in
early 1975 has been greeted unenthusiastically by other governments. Foreign
Minister Sauvagnarques and other French spokesmen meanwhile are publicly
stressing the similarities between French and US approaches to the oil-price
problem
Giscard probably will try to persuade Washington to participate by
offering to delay the conference until importing nations can reduce differences
in oil policies.
Giscard may express French willingness to cooperate with the International
Energy Agency, if only through a unified EC representation. This approach would
allow France to save face, obscuring the break with Gaullist policy. Paris will
hesitate to jeopardize the goodwill of oil producers by openly joining a consumer
group.
The French president probably will tout reduced consumption of oil as the
best means of achieving a reduction in prices. Citing French efforts in this regard,
he is likely to urge Washington to adopt conservation measures.
Recycling Oil Money - Giscard distrusts multinational recycling on the grounds
that it would be US-dominated, subjecting borrowers to pressure from Washington.
Iran already has made a hefty advance payment for imports; Iraq has agreed in
principle to lend Paris $1 billion; and negotiations are under way for a large loan
from Saudi Arabia.
World Trade - Paris generally has taken a go-it-alone approach toward balancing
French trade, arousing concern within the EC. Its opposition to trade restrictions
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as a threat to French exports has not convinced major trading partners that Paris
might not impose its own restrictive measures. Giscard presumably will suggest
that Washington adopt expansionary measures to help France and other deficit
countries.
A substantial oil surplus - perhaps as much as 3 million b/d - probably will
emerge by mid-summer 1975 unless production is cut further. Consumption
constraints on consuming countries would tend to enlarge the surplus and hasten
its arrival.
The economic slump, high prices, and conservation measures continue to hold
oil consumption below the 1973 level. A surplus is being avoided in the current
quarter and will continue to be avoided in the next quarter because of the normal
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
ist Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Consumption
47.4
44.4
43.9
49.0
49.9
44.7
44.6
United States
16.9
15.9
16.4
18.0
18.3
16.3
16.4
Japan
5.5
4.9
4.5
5.0
5.2
4.7
4.7
Western Europe
14.8
13.3
12.6
15.7
16.0
13.3
13.0
Other countries
10.3
10.3
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.4
10.5
Supply
48.7
49.7
47.7
47.5
47.6
47.9
48.2
Production
48.0
49.0
47,0
46.7
46.8
47.0
47.3
United Statesl
11.1
11.0
11.0
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.8
Western Europe
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.8
Other countries
36.5
37.6
35.6
35.5
35.6
35.6
35.7
OPEC
30.6
31.7
29.8
29.6
29.6
29.6
29.6
Non?OPEC2
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.1
Net imports from
Communist countries
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
Implied stock change
(including floating
storage)
1.3
5.3
3.8
.1.5
-2.3
3.2
3.7
1. Including a processing gain of 450,000 b/d and production of 1.7 million b/d of natural gas liquids.
2. Including Canadian production of natural gas liquids (300,000 b/d).
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winter surge in consumption and importers' desires to maintain higher than normal
stocks. Barring unusually harsh weather this winter, stock drawdowns will be nearly
I million b/d lower than normal. The drawdown in on-shore stocks thus promises
to be particularly small. Most of the seasonal rise in oil consumption can probably
be met by reducing the amount of oil in floating storage.
If oil output in the OPEC countries stays near the current level as consumption
declines in the spring and summer, all available storage capacity - including floating
storage - should again be filled by mid-summer. OPEC output would then have
to be cut to balance world supply and demand.
A surplus would present OPEC countries with a problem similar to that faced
last summer. They probably would again work off a surplus through production
cuts by individual member states. Some of these production cuts might only be
temporary, since consumption would rise again the next winter.
* This article is reprinted from International Oil Developments of 5 December 1974.
Notes
Venezuela: Foreign Oil Companies After Nationalization
Despite failure of draft legislation on oil nationalization to give them a role,
foreign oil companies almost certainly will be asked to continue participation in
Venezuela's oil industry. Caracas wants them to (a) continue overseas marketing,
(b) assure Venezuelan access to technological advances, and (c) participate in the
development of new oil fields. Meanwhile, the companies will continue to be
involved in management of their properties for at least one year, during the
transition from private to national ownership. President Perez will review the draft
legislation and present a final bill to Congress early next year with nationalizaton
expected by midyear.
Afghanistan May Seek PL-480 Wheat
The combined effects of summer drought, diversion of wheat land to cotton,
and hoarding stimulated by talk of worldwide scarcities have tightened wheat
supplies and raised wheat prices in Afghanistan. Continued drought has heightened
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government apprehension -- probably prematurely - about the winter wheat crop
and possible further price increases. A Normal request for 100,000 tons of PL-480
wheat is likely, since the Soviets have already declined help.
Publications of Interest*
OPEC Countries: Oil Revenues in 1974
(ER IR 74-30. December 1974,
This report presents estimates of the accrued earnings and actual receipts of
OPEC countries from oil exports this year. The 1974 oil receipts of OPEC members
will total about $94 billion. Because of a lag between oil exports and payments,
nior than $60 billion will be received in the second half. A detailed methodology
and supporting material are included.
The Economic Situation in South Vietnam, November 1974
(ER 1R 74-31, November 1974,
This month's report discusses (1) the continued price stability, (2) the increase
in foreign exchange reserves, (3) the favorable rice stock ievels, (4) the results
of Deputy Prime Minister Don's search for new aid and investment, (5) the decline
in the refugee population, (6) the 1975 budget proposal, (7) the promotion of
the garment industry, and (8) new ministerial appointments.
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
INDEX: 1970 Monthly Average-100
11377 Average
United States
102
122
Japan
1104
'
- -
West Germany
~
111
102
125
Prance
109
United Kingdom
100
1.4....
Italy
103
126
Canada
1 10
Semilogarithmic Scale
GNP'
RETAIL SALES'
Constant Market Prices
Average Annual Growth Rate Since
Constant Prices
latest
Quarter
Percent Change
from Previous I Year Previous
Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
United States
74111
I -0.5
3.2 I
-2.2
-2.1
United States
Japan
74111
-0.2
5.3
-3.9
-0.8
Japan
West Germany
7411
- 0.7
3.1
1.1
- 2.9
West Germany
France
73 IV
1.7
5.8
6.0 1
7.0
France
United Kingdom
74111
1.0
2.7
0.6
4.2
United Kingdom
Italy
73 IV
1.9
3.7
5.3
7.7
Italy
Canada
74111
0
5.3
4.1
0
Canada
Office of Economic Research/CIA
11 December 1974
Average Annual Growth Role Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Mouth Month
Oct 74
Aug 74
3.2 -5.2 -17.0
0.4 5.8 5.3 -3.6
Average Annual Growth Ante Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Eno it 2
Oct 74 -1.3 I 2.3 1 -5.7 ?4.7
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Apr74
Jul74
1970
I Year
Ear ho
3 Months
tailor 2
3.8
4.8
1
-1.7
-9.4
-1.6
-16.8
-3.8
-7.9
5.7
-8.7
1.8
-0.4
1.1
1.0
2.8
-0.8
2.6
8.9
5.1
9.4
-7.0
-8.9
-7.0
4.2
6.3
0
-1.0
-0.9
7.1
2.7
Note: US data provided by US government agencies
Footnotes appear on page A-4.
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DOMESTIC PRICES'
INDEX 1970 Monthly Avarage-100
United States
lob
Japan
08
11.0
12.0
711.2
12.2
28.7
20.2
6.8 14.6
6.1 7.1
11.8 21.9
8.5 14.9
66
21.7
1.5 11.5 25.1
Semilogarithmic Scale J
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
183
157
Average Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Oct 74
Oct 74
1!1.11
13.9
Oct 74
Oct 74
Sup 74
Oct 74
Aug 74
Oct 74
Jul 74 2,11
Oct 74 i 0.9
12'2
10.4
WAGES IN MANUFACTUPING 7,+
Average Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
I Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970 Earlier Earlier2
Oct 74
I 0.4
5.8
5.7
2.2
United States
Aug 74
-1.0
16.8
13.1
15.6
Japan
Sep 74
0.9
9.2
9.7
12.6
West Germany
Jun 74
1.4
12.6
8.7
16.2
France
Oct 74
1.5
8.5
5.3
8.5
United Kingdom
Jan 74
1.1
20.6
20.7
17.1
Italy
I Sep 74
--0.7
11.8
6.8
-6.1
Canada
Average Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Period 1970 Earlier Earlier 2
Sep 74 1 1.1 1 7.1 10.0 1 13.4
Aug 74
74 II
74 III
Aug 74
Aug 74
Jun 74
-2.1
3.1
8.0
6.4
3.0
1.4
22 8
11.4
13.8
14,1
17.9
59,8
13.1
26.4
31.4
25.7
17.3
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run uuoi If"16
INDEX 1970 Monthly Average-100
West Germany
128
Frn.nce
127 A
1231
United Kingdom
21
Italy
134
1121,_ ,.,.ws*
Canada
~I!!~?~h 2(33
253
' v - -- - ------------------ -- ----
111 1972 1973 1974
BASIC BALANCE5
Current aid Long-Term-Capital Transactions
United States 1
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdoi;l
Italy
Canada
Latest Month Cumulative IMii:lon US $1
Million US $ 1974 1673
8,605 1
80,240 1
51,012
I63!i
82.f,h/
30
-2,317
552
5,277
44,276
20,16
4,4')2
43,11(17
75,709
854
7,195
73,150
55,688
5.55(1
13.3i133
42,34 5
13,343
3,800
38,106
30,215
4,225
41,623
29,1(43,1
Balance
I
-425
-3,517
1,1721
3
081
29
693
219
23
Oct 74
,
4,105
,
3!1,70!7
,
! 21.672
Balance
2
664
324
1 21
15
774
Sep 74
,
,
3.1311 27.1#1(1
,
1/,r;1 ,
Balance
-474 -5,564
-1,843
799 1 26
916
2
1 20
589
Oct 74
,
,
7,721 2(3.103
,
Ifl,!U
Balance
75 813
1,748
Latest Period Cumulative (Million US $) Latest Month
--------
Million US S 1974 1973 Change End of Billion US S Jun 1970
74 II
-2,740
-954
-2,184
1,210 United States 1
Oct 74
15.9
14.5
Oct 74
438
-8,833
-6,978
-1,855 Japan
Nov 74
13.7
4.1
Oct 74
877
5,935
8,238
-2,301 West Germany
Nov 74
35.4
8.8
73 IV
-475
N.A.
-2,472
N.A. France
Oct74
9.0
4.4
7411
-1,297
-2,951
1
-868
-'.083 United Kingdom
Nov 74
7.8
2.8
74 I
- 2.037
-2,037
-872
-1,164 Italy
Sep 74
7.6
4.7
74 II
-445
-613 I 8
-808 Canada
Nov 74
5.8 1
4.3
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150053-8
Change
40.7%
-2,809
31.4%
26 5':
8,244
26.1%
43.3
-4,689
-5,813
30.1%
31 8'
Billion US $
I Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier
14.4 14.9
13.2 12.9
34.1 33.1
10.1 8.3
6.6 8.8
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150053-8
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Eurodollars
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
us $
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Roprosentalive Rotes
Dealer-placed finance paper
Call money
Interbank loans (3 months)
Call money
Sterling Interbank loans(3 months)
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
26.5
38.8
20.9
28.5
33.2
42.0
38.3
Average Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Oct 74
Oct 74
Sep 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
-0.1
-0.2
3.3
1.6
3.9
1.7
10.7
5.7
11.1
13.a
15.4
12.4
26.5
21.5
10.0
11.5
25.1
28.6
41.5
Average Annual Growth Bale Sincu
Percent Change
latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Oct 74
Oct 74
Sep 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
1.0 12.9
-0.1 15.6
-1.7 14.0
2.5 14.7
1.5 13.5
4.9 14.6
0.7 14.3
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 06
-15.36
12.05
33.23
-16.93
-37.65
-30.68
7.11
Percent Rote of Interest
1 Year 3 Months I Month
Letesl Data Earlier Earlier Earlier
Nov 27 1 8.93 I 8.00 1 11.94 1 8.93
Nov 27
Nov 29
Nov 27
Nev 27
Nov 27
8.58
12.00
12.16
10.28
10.29
9.38 13.75 12.50
13.08 9.53 9.54
11.25 13.38 12.88
15.33 12.45 11.50
9.00 11.88 10.65
10.43 13.74 1 10.21
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
33.9 United States
EXCHANGE RATES
Spot Rate
As of 6 Dec 74
14.9 Japan Oct 74
22.5 West Germany Sep 74
42.5 France Jun 74
29.6 United Kingdom Jul 74
43.4 Italy Jul 74
13.5 Canada Jul 74
33.9
-4.1
0.3
33.5
29.5
35.7
9.4
Japan (yen)
West Germany (Deutsche mark)
France (franc)
United Kingdom (pound sterling)
Italy (lira)
Canada (dollar)
US S
Per Unit
Percent Change from
19 Dec 71 19 Mar 73 29 Nov 74
-6.04 1 0.57 1 -0.13
-1.47
10.08 10.99 -0.44
-3.52 -5.98 0.59
-23.24 -8.72 0.04
-29.25 -22.24 -0.11
0.53 2.17 0.01
Average Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Mcnlir 1970 Earlier Earlier
Oct 74 0.5 19.4 ! 49.7 18.9
0.0033
0.4038
0.2170
2.3290
0.0015
1.0129
0,8 16.7 72.9 12.0
-1.1 7.0 32.6 9.9
0 15.6 61.5 37.0
0.5 21.3 55.9 18.3
-2.4 24.8 68.5 7.3
1.8 11.6 32.5 39.7
Percent Change (nom
Dec 60 18 Dec 71 19 Mar 73 29 Nov 74
21.06 2.86 1 -12.17 i 0.30
60.54 30.07 13.98 -0.20
7.48 10.21 -1.54 0.65
-16.54 1 -10.62 -5.36 0.17
-5.93 1 -12.44 -14.92 0.07
9.81 1.51 1, 1.52 0.05
FOOTNOTES FOR WEEKLY IN04CATORS
1. Seasonally adiusted.
2. Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
3, Wholesale price indexes cover industrial goods.
4. Hourly earnings for the United States, Japan, and Canada;
hourly wage rates for others. West German and French data
are for the beginning of the quarter.
6. Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries
to reflect the competitive rrlpaet of exchange-rate variations among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150053-8