LIBERIA: CRITICAL TIMES FOR THE MILITARY

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CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5
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RIPPUB
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S
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20
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December 22, 2016
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August 19, 2010
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1
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Publication Date: 
August 10, 1984
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MEMO
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE 10 August 1984 LIBERIA: CRITICAL TIMES FOR THE MILITARY Summary I'M The coup led in 1980 by Master Sergeant Samuel Doe thrust the ill-prepared military establishment into the role of governing Liberia for the first time since freed American slaves founded the country 133 years earlier. The regime's self-proclaimed goals have been to eradicate the vestiges of domination by the Americo-Liberian elite, revive the economy hobbled by worldwide recession and government mismznagement. and to restore the country to civilian rule by 1986. Four years of military rule have done little to lay a firm foundation for the return to civilian rule. Doe's decision to lift the lid on political activity comes at a time of continuing economic hardship for most Liberians, and uncertainty over what lies at the end of the transition period. Doe's erratic behavior and indecision over his role during and after the transition--now apparently resolved in favor of his running or president--have added to the political confusion. This memorandum was prepared by West Africa Branch, Africa Division, Office of African and Latin American Analysis. It has been coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Questions and comments are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Africa Division, ALA M 84-10081 i?) 25X1 S E C R E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 J G to It C I We believe the unity of Liberia's military will be severely strained as it attempts to monitor and control the transition process and protect its economic and political interests. In our judgment, the military--divided along ethnic lines and split over its political role and future--is poorly equipped to play the role of a stabilizing force during the next 18 months. Moreover, we expect these divisions to become sharper as political activity picks up pace. Liberia's military will remain political center stage throughout the transition and ultimately will determine the success or failure of the transition. While impossible to predict with certainty, the present weight of evidence suggests that the military may hold together, and permit a civilian government--most likely headed by Doe--to take power. The situation, however, is fragile and volatile and we cannot discount the possibility of a coup that at the very least would Whatever role the military takes in the next 18 months is likely to influence US-Liberian relations. The military's dependence on the US for training and materiel, along with important bilateral communications and access agreements, will continue to make the status of the Armed Forces of Liberia an issue central to relations between Monrovia and Washington. In our judgment, Liberia's military will have difficulty carrying out its self-appointed roles as final arbiter of political disputes and the guarantor of public order during what is likely to be a rocky transition to civilian rule. After four years in power, the military remains divided along ethnic lines, confused about its role in transition, and uncertain of its place in any future civilian government. Moreover, the inability of the military to improve its military capabilities or significantly better the living conditions for soldiers during its tenure in power has further undermined its ability to provide a politically stabilizing L.- _A Profile of the Liberian Armed Forces rule 'by the merico-Liberian elite, the military was deliberately kept v small, poorly equipped, and politically corrupted. From its creation in 1904 as the Liberian Frontier Force until recently, the Army's functions S E C R E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 were limited to frontier defense, internal security, and occasional international deployments such as the UN peacekeeping operation in the early 1960s in Zaire. The April 1980 coup came against the backdrop of the long exclusion of Liberia's tribal majority from political and economic power, and the lack of political and social reform following the 1979 rice riots in Monrovia. Although many rural Liberian tribesmen, particularly the Lomas, saw a military career as a way of getting ahead, lucrative. senior officer positions traditionally had remained the preserve of the coastal settler aristocracy and its coopted tribal allies. The coup transformed the military overnight into the country's single most important political institution. While US Embassy reporting amply documents that Head of State Doe is in effect a one-man government, the military has been drawn into all levels of government, including 22 soldiers who sit on the newly created 58-member Interim National Asembly. In addition, Doe is assisted by a cabinet all of whose civilian members hold military commissions and are subject to military discipline. In addition, military officers also participate in the management of parastatal corporations, county government, and the In our judgment, the army's political activism has undermined its already suspect ability to carry out its military mission. Virtually a equipment is US-made but poorly maintained. The concentration of troops in the Monrovia area--three of six infantry battalions and most support units, for example, are deployed in or near the capital--leaves the hinterland areas only thinly garrisoned. (See Nor do the Liberian Armed Forces constitute a strongly nationalistic or cohesive force. Loyalties are rooted in tribe, rather than pro ession or c support for commanders from other tribes is tenuous at best. We believe the Army probably is capable of handling occasional small scale civil disturbances, but that it would be hardpressed to respond quickly and effectively if called on to put down repeated or widespread demonstrations. Moreover, sources of the US Embassy doubt that troops would be willing to fire at civilians should violent demonstrations SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 occur. Most soldiers, for example, joined in the rioting and looting in Monrovia in 1979 after the government threatened to hike the price of Divisive Issues Liberia's military enters the transition period divided. In our judgment, whoever governs will have no choice but to spend a large portion of Liberia's scarce resources on trying to balance diverse political and ethnic interests in the military and to meet its most basic economic needs. However, in our judgment, there is little likelihood that any government will be able to placate or control all factions within the military, or take the loyalty of the military for granted. Ethnic Rivalries. Although the US Embassy reports that many Liberians take enormous satisfaction in having a "country person" in charge for the first time, the military is still plagued by intense ethnic rivalries. In the view of many tribesmen, Doe's "revolution" has replaced the traditional elitist domination of Liberia and its military with that of his fellow Krahns. Lomas--who along with Kpelles from northwestern Liberia accounted for perhaps three-fourths of all enlisted men prior to 1980--are still the largest group in uniform, but see their dominance being gradually diluted by the increasing numbers of recruits from southeastern Liberia, particularly Krahn and Kru. Several hundred Krahn and Kru tribesmen have been brought into the Army since early 1983 despite an official ban on new recruitment intended to hold down payroll costs. Moreover, Kru and Krahn are disproportionately represented in the officer corps, particularly in the higher ranks, based on their presumed loyalty to to Daher than their military qualifications. (See Table 2) Doe is well aware of the impact of tribalism, but appears to believe that he has no political choice but to rely on his kinsmen. Since coming to power, Doe has nipped in the bud at least 14 alleged milita lots motivated at least in part by personal and tribal grievances. In addition, Doe is protected by a special bodyguard, largely Krahn, whose members are personally selected by him for demonstrated loyalty. Bread and Butter Issues. Although the military is still far better off than most civilians, t e general decline of the economy has affected the armed forces members at all levels, particularly enlisted men. Paychecks are generally two months late Moreover, inflation, food shortages, and rising civilian 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 unemployment all add to the drain on soldiers' paychecks from the sizeable number of extended family members who depend upon them. Deductions for government development projects in their home districts further erode soldiers' income. necessities as uniforms and food. IFor example, troops concentrated in and around Monrovia were barely able to carry out orders to deploy to the border during a temporary spat with Sierra Leone in 1983, arriving largely in rented vehicles and carrying unserviceable weapons. At times, the Army has difficulty in providing even such basic There also is disillusionment in the ranks with what is seen as the widespread corruption of senior officers. Doe himself is not immune from from criticism, partly because of his tolerance for the corrupt activities of his military collea ues. Attitudes toward a Return to Civilian Rule. 25X1 the military is anxious and uncertain 25X1 about the country's scheduled return to civilian rule and split over the type of government best suited for Liberia. 25X1 many in the military doubt that a civi lian regime would be able to 25X1 manage effectively the country's economic and political problems. On the away from direct political activity. We believe the appearance of widespread support for leftist parties would pose a particularly delicate problem for the military. Although a majority of the mi l i to ry reportedly is opposed to the election of a leftist, civilian government, such an event probably would provoke fierce debate in all ranks. In particular, there likely would be strong pressures within the military to step in, void the election, and reimplement military rule. On the other hand, we believe there are those who are commited to returning to the barracks and believe that the military can begin improving its military capabilities only when it steps government would make their economic situation even worse. The US Defense Attache points out that all ranks fear possible retribution for misdeeds commited since 1980 and that budget cuts by a civilian other hand Defense Minister Allison Forces Chief of Staff Dubar, 77= dl believe the military would best be served by returning to the barracks and letting civilians shoulder the burden of administration and take the blame for a failing economy. The Doe Factor. Attitudes toward the return to civilian rule are complicated by iv ded opinion over what role, if any, Doe should play in SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 the new government. Although Doe is the odds-on favorite to win the presidential election, his candidacy will continue to foster considerable debate in the military. Doe's erratic behavior--including his proclivity for making spur of the moment decisions, lashing out at advisors, jailing critics, and provoking confrontations with the US--has raised doubts among some military personnel of all ranks about his fitness to retain office. Many apparently fear that Doe could jeopardize US military and economic aid that Liberia needs to survive. Others, regardless of their misgivings ' over Doe s administrative incompetence, believe he is the only individual with the requisite "toughness" to ensure continued political stability. Finally, Doe's candidacy runs the risk of worsening ethnic tensions in the military. Non-Krahns worry that Krahn domination will increase if Doe is elected Liberia's civilian president On the other hand, Krahns and other tribes from southeastern Liberia that have particularly benefited from Doe's rule fear that their political and economic circumstances will worsen if Doe does not become civilian president. Outlook and Implications for the United States Liberia's political climate during the 18 month transition is likely to remain uncertain and subject to sudden change. In our view, Doe will have difficulty balancing the conflicting expectations and demands within the military and will remain vulnerable to a coup by frustrated soldiers throughout the transition. In particular, Doe will find it difficult to balance pressures to maintain and even increase benefits for the military with pressure from US and international lenders that the government exercise greater fiscal austerity. Paradoxically, if Doe repeats the nationalistic posturing of last spring in hopes of extracting more US aid, he risks antagonizing those military officers who counsel against straining relations with Washington. (See Table 4) Doe also will be closely watched for his handling of the ethnic factor. Continued recruitment of Krahns into the Army almost certainly will further offend non-Krahns who already believe Doe's cronies are preparing for civilian rule by grabbing the choicest assignments. For their part, Krahns may become increasingly intolerant of opposition S E C R E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 V V V .\ V . politicians and any campaign rhetoric they believe threatens Doe's electoral prospects. We also believe senior officers will pay close heed to how open an election campaign Doe permits.- In our judgment, Doe could provoke serious unrest if he gives the appearance of being too blatant in his attempts to rig the elections. In particular, Doe's manipulating election laws to disqualify candidates and parties for ideological reasons may not sit well with senior officers concerned about Liberia's international image. Although impossible to predict with certainty, in our estimation, three basic scenarios are most probable: a grudging toleration of the status quo by the military, a takeover by senior officers, or a coup by junior officers or enlisted men. More of the Same--Muddling Through. Under this scenario--which we believe most likely at present--arms orces' "professionals" who prefer to remain aloof from politics would carry the day. Although displeased with some aspects of Doe's rule, most uniformed personnel would give grudging support to Doe. This scenario, however, requires that Doe be responsive to the needs of the military and seek the safest and least divisive route through the thicket of conflicting political, economic, and military demands that he will face during the coming months. Doe would need to offset potentially unpopular moves intended to advance his own candidacy--such as muzzling the press and selectively harassing rivals and critics--with "presidential" gestures of forceful leadership and magnanimity. In any event, Doe is unlikely to make significant headway in dealing with more fundamental issues such as carrying out structural economic reforms, curbing corruption, and improving government management. A Palace Coup. We believe that over time Doe's senior military and civilian advisors could come to believe that political stability and a restoration of Liberia's international image requires Doe's removal. Such a palace coup could involve Doe's quiet but forceful ouster by senior officers, his assassination--perhaps by one or more disgruntled former military---,council members, or a more widespread and bloody takeover. The stability of such a regime would depend in large measure on the ethnic composition of the new government and the response of Krahn enlisted men, the majority of whom support Doe and have benefitted by his regime. Over the short run, however, we believe senior officers, who reportedly enjoy respect for their professionalism among the rank and file, could rally enough support to restore order and establish an interim government. These officers would have little choice but to turn to 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08 : CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 civilian experts to keep the ?overnment fun C~ 'oning and to plead for US understanding and increased aid. We hold out little hope, however, that senior officers would prove significantly more adept than their predecessors in implementing longer term economic reforms or developing stable political institutions. While remaining commited to a return to civilian rule, the process most likely would be delayed as senior officers attempted to solidify their control. We cannot discount a bloody coup by unknown junior officers or enlisted men modelled along the precedent set by Doe. Tribal animosities and weakened military discipline could usher in prolonged instability as junior officers and enlisted men with little experience grapple to consolidate their position and to find additional sources of external aid. The new government probably would prove difficult for the West to deal with and could threaten US facilities in Liberia in hopes of getting more aid from Washington. Foreign investors, already worried about the risk of doing business in Liberia, would be further unnerved and capital flight would be likely to ensue. The uncertainties in this situation would offer Moscow and Tripoli at least short-term opportunities to meddle at US expense. The United States' close and extensive ties to Liberia are well documented. This "special relationship" makes it inevitable that Washington will be centrally involved in whatever scenario emerges. However, the widely shared pro-American sentiments of most of Liberia's military officials must be balanced against the widespread and currently fashionable prickliness over Liberia's domestic sovereignty. As such, the US is likely to be placed in a delicate position that will make any Washington-inspired initiatives sensitive and difficult. Warning Signs As uncertain and volatile as Liberian politics is likely to be during the next 18 months, we believe certain events or policies bear particularly close watching and could serve as signals of more significant changes ahead. In particular, we will be paying close attention for signs that: -- Doe's behavior is becoming so erratjc and heavy handed that it is alienating senior officers once loyal to the president; -- soldiers are becoming increasingly worried that a new civilian government will be less benevolent and less concerned with their economic well being, or that they have not yet had their share of the spoils; S E C R E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 -- growing numbers of soldiers are expressing the belief that the election is primarily a tribal concern and that it will either perpetuate or end Krahn domination, or bring leftists to power; -- economic hard times are making living conditions for soldiers and their families even more precarious, and fueling perceptions that Doe has forgotten the "little man". 9 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 TABLE 1. Liberian Military Units Unit and Location Personnel Strength* Comment Wish MOD Officers Other List rssf. - Tan 1983 AFL Headquarters 225 300 111 185 Commanded by Chief of Staff Lieutenant Monrovia General H senior Ar officers i Y. Konah, Brigadier Director Morris T. Assistant Works; Ca Minister Captain S. Minister Affairs; C Assistant J. Payne, Operations Assistant Defense fo enry Dubar, a Krahn. Other med Forces of Liberia staff nclude: Major General Kpenkpah Deputy Chief of Staff; General Moses K. Craig, of Staff; Commanding General Zaza; Colonel Stephen Blayee, Minister of Defense for Civil ptain Anthony P. Togba, Deputy of Defense for Administration; Weaka Peters, Assistant of Defense for Coast Guard olonel Thomas Gaye, G-2, Chief of Staff; Colonel Jackson Deputy Minister of Defense for ; Colonel Tommy Raynes, Minister of r Public Affairs Liberian National 406 443 41 402 Commanded by Commandant Coast Guar Patrick Gb a Doe Wallace, a Monrovia, Buchanan, Grebo. Ma jority are Kru; and Greenville has only o of Liberia discipline are not su protecting ne Krahn. One of Armed Forces 's most efficient and d units. Its 7 patrol craft fficient for mission of territorial waters. *First column refers to government's 1984 "wish list" of preferred unit strengths. Second column is based upon estimates made by the Ministry of Defense in March 1984. Third and fourth columns are estimates made in October 1983 by the Armed Forces of Liberia of officers and enlisted personnel, respectively. ~ 25X1 S E C R E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 SECRET Unit and Location Personnel Strength Comment Wish MOD Officers Other List M. - Tank 1983 Air Reconnaissance 137 56 14 32 Commanded by Colonel S. Augustus Jarba, Unit who allegedly uses unit's aircraft for Monrovia Camp Ramrod private gain. Most leaders are Krahn and Springs Payne Airfield Kru. One of Armed Forces of Liberia's most capable units, but not all of its 10 light aircraft, mostly Cessnas, are operational and are insufficient support Engineer Battalion 391 421 Camp Jackson, Bong County 54 371 Tubman Military ca em 258 291 62 219 Camp odee AFL Brigade 143 274 63 200 =aq uarters Monrovia, Barclay Training Center Brigade Special 129 118 11 112 Unit Monrovia, Barclay Training Center for the Coast Guard. Commanded by Colonel Stephen J. Blayee, a Krahn. Military and civilian construction projects are hampered by lack of spare parts. Commanded by Colonel Maxwell Weah, tribal affiliation unknown. Ministry of Defense provides little support. Commander feeds trainees out of his own salary. New recruits are almost all Krahns, semiliterate. Commanded by Colonel Alfred Menyeah, tribal affiliation unknown. Commanded by Lieutenant Colonel Joseph Largo, tribal affiliation unknown. S E C R E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 SECRET Unit and Location Logistics Command Monrovia, Barclay Training Center Military Police Company Monrovia, Barclay Training Center Woman's Arm Corps n1 Monrovia, Barclay Training Center Armored Scout Unit Personnel Strength Comment Wish MOD Officers Other List rs-t- -198 Ranks T9-93- 310 348 65 253 Commanded by Colonel John G. Nuah, tribal affiliation unknown. Inordinate paperwork and low number of people mak unit ineffective. es 129 321 18 317 Commanded by Lieutenant Colonel John T. Bengue, tribal affiliation unknown. 129 101 20 122 Commanded by Major Delisha W. Tugba, tribal affiliation unknown. No WACs have received basic training. 220 71 11 63 Commanded by Captain Joseph D. Jarlee, a Krahn. Also known as Monrovia, Camp 72nd Battalion. Many members are Ramrod detailed to Executive Mansion Guard. Thirty soldiers were trained in Swi tzerland. Has 12 Mowag armored vehicles, 8 operational. Not permitted 50 caliber ammunition. Signal Company 129 53 8 44 Commanded by Major Monrovia, Ministry Joebious Dickson, of Defense tribal affiliation unknown. Infantry 2940 - atB talions-5 S E C R E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 S E C R E T Unit and Location Personnel Strength Comment Wish MOD Officers" Other =Is tsf. -198 ants 983 1st Infantry - 356 36 273 Commanded by Colonel Moses Battalion Wright, a Krahn. Generally Camp Schiefflin, lacks training and equipment, but has Marshall Territory had training in crowd control. Has many Loma officers, many Krahn and Kru; Wright is Doe's brother- in-law. 2nd Infantry - 197 27 171 Commanded by Lieutenant Battalion Colonel Henry M. Camp Todee Worlobah, tribal affiliation unknown. Reportedly will respond to any political campaign violence in Monrovia. Has had training in crowd control, well organized and disciplined, but no one guards ammunition, and unit lacks water supply and medical facilities. 4th Infantry - 204 27 143 Commanded by Colonel Battalion Arthur B. Joloka, a Camp Whisnaut, Krahn. Isolated Zwedru, Cape Palmas, border patrol unit; and Greenville understrength, poorly equipped, ammunition is stored in a soldier's closet. 5th Infantry - 610 76 627 Commanded by Lieutenant a to ion. Colonel Lawrence Tweh, Camp ubman, tribal affiliation Gbarnga, Zwedru, unknown. Isolated Voinjama border patrol unit. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 S E C R E T Unit and Location Personnel Strength Comment Wish MOD Officers Other Liist ES?. - Ranks 198-3 6th Infantry - 259 30 199 Commanded by Colonel Battalion Edward Smith, a Camp Jackson Krahn. Has inoperable Bomi Hills weapons, little ammunition; minimal transportation, yet may be Armed Forces of Liberia's best unit. Has Krahn, Kru, and Grebo officers; all ethnic groups are represented in enlisted ranks. Has had training in crowd control; responsible for security along Sierra Leone border and defense of Monrovia. Field Artillery 179 126 21 97 Battalion o b~Tert Farm Agricultural 600 120 27 136 Battalion Camp o ee Headquarters, 200 386 74 280 3rd Support battalion Monrovia, Barclay Training Center Commanded by Major David Zaza, tribal affiliation unknown. Has 105mm towed howitzer, 50 caliber machine guns, M40 106 recoilless rifles, but none have been fired since 1980. Unit is understrength and does not receive spare parts or maintenance support. Commanded by Colonel Alfred Suah, tribal affiliation unknown. No effective leadership, no equipment, inactive. communications equipment, no vehicles, and Commanded by Colonel Randolph B. Gaye, a Krahn. Provides bodyguards and drivers to senior governmental and military officials. Bondiway detachment has no mission--Firestone provides its own security. B Company in Kakata has no G r n G T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 SECRET Unit and Location Personnel Strength Comment Wish MOD Officers, Other tT. - Tanks 1983 Executive Mansion 522 674 95 660 Commanded by Brigadier Guard General Emmanuel Sayon, T, Zwedru in a Krahn. Has sufficient Grand Gedeh, weapons for everyone Monrovia in its 4 companies; carries Romanian AKM assault rifles; Doe recently inducted 250-280 more Krahns for the unit. Other strength estimates reach 1300. Also performs intelligence functions for Doe; approximately 400 new recruits will guard Doe's mansion in Tuzon. Belle Yellah - 27 3 25 Commanded by Captain Special Detachment Joseph D. Kartuah, Camp Belle Yella-TF tribal affiliation unknown. Prison facility. Service Support - 510 68 280 Commanded by Colonel Battalion Raymond B. Outland, tribal affiliation unknown. Most of its new recruits have been for military bands. Brigade intelligence Security Agency Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 SECRET Table 2: Ethnicity and the Liberian Military Pre-Doe Era The Doe Regime Percent of Percent of Percent of Percent of Percent of Population Indigenous Indigenous ruling Cabinet, of 2.2 Officers, Enlisted military 1984 million 1975* men, 1975 council, 1984 Mande-speaking Tribes of northwestern Liberia Gbandi 3 - - - - G i o 9 - - 14 16 Kpelle 20 8 15 11 - Loma 6 16 60 11 11 Ma ndi ngo 4 - - - 5 Mano 7 - - 11 - Vai 3 - - - 5 Kru-speaking Tribes of southeastern Liberia Bassa 14 14 Grebo 8 12 9 11 Krahn 5 13 27 21 Kru 8 24 18 16 Gola 5 Kissi 3 Other Tribes 2 5 8 Americo-Liberians 3 - - - 16 *No reliable service-wide survey of the military's ethnic composition has been made since 1975. Inflation of personnel rosters to facilitate payroll skimming by officers makes Doe-era statistics suspect. 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Table 4: US Interests in Liberia The US has extensive interests in Liberia, particularly military access rights that would be difficult to duplicate elsewhere in Africa... Replacement costs for what is the largest concentration of US government assets in Africa would exceed $100 million. Facilities and Access Agreements 25X1 25X1 Voice of America Transmitters and Relay Broadcasts to Africa, the Middle Station East, parts of southwest Asia. Access Agreements for Robertsfield International Airport and Port of Monrovia Only ones in West Africa; rent-free; useful for rapid staging of US forces into Africa and the Persian Gulf during military emergencies. The $300 million American private investment in Liberia represents the second largest US investment in black Africa after Nigeria. This investment includes Firestone and Uniroyal rubber plantations, the LAMCO iron ore mine, in which Bethlehem Steel has a 25 percent interest, and affiliates of Chase Manhattan and Citibank. Some 75 percent of US-owned shipping is under Liberian flag-of-convenience registry, the world's largest. T-4-1 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Population Density and Ethnic Composition of Liberia POPULATION DENSITY PER SQUARE MILE under 40 40-90 over 90 ETHNO- LINGUISTIC Kru West Atlantic Mixed, over 90 inhabitants per sq. mile DEY Tribe name Sarpo Subtribe name ETHNIC COMPOSITION (portent of total population) Se(tiers vl ber Kiss, ; 8) (l.?) 0,l (3 4) 1 S) Kpelle (199) 1011111 13.rssa (S9) 14.7) Mand,ngo Mende Gb.3nd, (3?3) (3 9) (06) (2 8) Meno (74) Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5 Subject: LIBERIA: CRITICAL TIMES FOR THE MILITARY 25X1 Distribution: Original -- Frederick L. Wettering, Director, African Affairs, NSC 1 -- Ambassador James K. Bishop, Africa Bureau, Department of State 1 -- Robert Cabelly, Special Assistant Bureau, Department of State 1 -- Princeton Lyman, Africa Bureau, Department of State 1 -- Frank G. Wisner, Africa Bureau, Department of State 4 -- Anthony Dalsimer, Director, Office of Analysis for Africa, INR, Department of State 1 -- Edmund J. Perkins, Director, West African Affairs, AF, Department of State 1 -- Joseph McBride, Liberia Desk Officer, Department of State 1 -- Noel C. Koch, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, International Security Affairs, Department of Defense 1 ---Peter Spicer, Defense Intelligence Officer for Africa, Defense Intelligence Agency 1 -- DDI 1--ADDI 1 -- DDO/Africa 1 -- NIO for Africa 1 -- NIC Action Group 1 -- PDB Staff 1--ILS 1 -- C/DDI/PES 1 -- D/ALA 2 -- ALA/PS 1 -- ALA Research Director 4 -- CPAS/IMD/CB 4 -- ALA/AF 2 -- ALA/AF/W 4 -- ALA/AF/W I 25X1 ALA/AF/W (10 Aug 84) SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP85T00287R000901440001-5