COMMUNIST CHINA: PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS IN THE COAL INDUSTRY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700010010-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2010
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: April 1, 1971
• Content Type: IM

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Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
Communist China: Performance And Prospects
In The Coal Industry
38
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP I
Erdud,d from aulommk
downgtod{ng and
dndmlIGco lon
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
April 1971
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Communist China: Performance
And Prospects In The Coal Industry
Introduction
1. Coal remains the single most important energy
source in Communist China, comprising 90% of all the
energy available in 1970. As demonstrated during
the Cultural Revolution in 1967-68, disruptions in
the production and distribution of coal can lead to
reduced production in such key industries as electric
power, iron and steel, chemicals, and petroleum re-
fining. Although the petroleum industry is vigor-
ously expanding and although hydroelectric stations
are multiplying, coal will continue to play a dom-
inant role in Chinese industrial development through-
out the 1970s.
2. This memorandum reviews recent developments
in the Chinese coal industry and assesses the pros-
pects for the industry during the period of the new
Fourth Five-Year Plan (1971-75). The memorandum
distinguishes between (a) the small local mines,
generally located in areas of thin coal deposits,
which are favored under current economic policy,
and (b) the large mining complexes, generally located
in the coal-rich industrial provinces of the north,
which often rely on foreign equipment and which have
a long lead time from the start of construction to
actual operation. The Appendix reviews the problem
of estimating coal output from the available frag-
mentary data.
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office
of Economic Research.
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Discussion
Million 'Motric Tone
Production
3. In 1970, Communist China's coal production
regained the previous 1959 peak of 300 mmillion
metric tons. After a sharp decline in 1967-68
caused by the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution,
coal production in 1969 increased by 50 million
tons over the level of 1968* and by a further, 50
million tons in 1970 (see Figure 1).
1830
!200
190
19871958 1969 1960,1981 011 11904' 1988 1968`;.1967?. 1968 ', 1989:,' 1970
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4. China's coal industry covers a wide spec-
trum of facilities ranging from small, labor-
intensive mines (Figures 2 and 3) to large, highly
mechanized mines (Figures 4 and 5). In their
discussions, the Chinese generally refer to two
categories of mines -- small and large. In most
cases, a small mine is little more than a small
open pit, or a shaft, producing less than 1,000
tons of coal a year. However, a few "small" mines
may produce as much as 60,000 to 70,000 tons.,
Large mines, which usually include multiple shafts,
produce over 300,000 tons per year. Sometimes the
Chinese refer to mines of "medium size." This
term can be used to describe mines in the range
of 100,000 to 300,000 tons, which frequently are
developed into large mines. "Medium" is also used
to describe sizable small mines. Since the term
is ambiguous, and since mines in China are mostly
either small or large, use of the term "medium"
is avoided in this memorandum.
5. Mining bureaus, generally consisting of
several mines, are classified as large if they
produce over 1 million tons a year. These bureaus
are located for the most part in the coal-rich
northeast which has had years of development.
Some large bureaus are also found in east China
and around the Shensi and Szechwan Basins. In
1970, large mining bureaus accounted for about
76% of total coal production, with small mines
probably accounting for most of the remaining 24%.
6. The large mining bureaus under which the
major mines are grouped have been producing at
less than capacity since 1961. The bulk of the
increase in coal production in 1970-71 has come
from more efficient mining procedures and fuller
exploitation of coal deposits at the large mining
bureaus. Even though the large mining bureaus
were producing at less than capacity during the
middle 1960s, several dozen new large mines were
built as the result of regime policies emphasizing
large-scale mine construction. Output from these
new mines, which are now coming into full produc-
tion, was also a significant component of total
coal production in 1970. The current Chinese
interest in rejuvenating some of the old worked-
out mines, previously closed, suggests that
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Figure 3. Small Strip Mine
County, Chekiang Province
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n Yi-wu
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Figure 4. Large Underground Mine In Peking, Hopeh
Figure 5. Large Strip Mine In Fu-shun,
Liaoning Province
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production is now pushing capacity. Most of the
coal so far obtained from these old mines has been
gained by picking over partly worked faces through
labor-intensive methods; in other cases, new coal
seams have been discovered and exploited.
7. Several longstanding problems continued to
plague the industry in 1970. The lack of timber
for pit props, equipment breakdowns, and backlogged
coal at mines caused by limited transport facil-
ities are the most common reasons for production
slowdowns. The Chinese are trying to solve these
problems through innovation. Steel and sometimes
concrete are being substituted for wood pit props.
Tool shops and foundries are being built on mine
sites to manufacture replacements for wornout
machinery and equipment. More attention is being
given to the minimizing the distances between
mines and consumers.
8. In any case, increases in output of the
magnitude achieved in the past two years almost
certainly will not be repeated within the next
few years. As indicated in the following sections
of this memorandum, there are grounds for believing
that output at the large mines -- which account for
most of Chinese production -- is now pressing the
limits of capacity.
Development Policy
9. Over the years, policy emphasis on the
development of the coal industry has alternated
between small and large mines. Following the
failure of the Great Leap Forward, which had
featured the opening of thousands of small primi-
tive mines, China once more emphasized the develop-
ment of modern mining complexes. These modern com-
plexes usually required foreign equipment and
technology, which, now that Soviet support was
unavailable, had to be obtained elsewhere. During
the early 1960s, therefore, China purchased small
amounts of modern mining equipment from Britain,
France, West Germany, Romania, Sweden, and Japan.
The Chinese appear to have mainly used this im-
ported equipment as the basis for developing the
domestic mining machinery industry. These imports
halted in 1966 with the outbreak of the Cultural
Revolution. The political turmoil of the Cultural
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Revolution slowed down -- but did not completely
stop -- the development of capacity and technology
in the industry.
10. With the waning of the Cultural Revolution
in 1969, the Communists began to expand the use of
small mines. Small mines are found throughout
China, but they are most prevalent in the southern
provinces where reserves of both anthracite and
bituminous coal are less plentiful and of lower
quality.* By early 1969, both provincial and na-
tional press media began reporting the construction
and opening of numerous small coal mines throughout
China. This marked a definite policy change from
the preceding eight years. To meet immediate needs
for greater quantities of coal, the Chinese have
since appeared to be more intensively exploiting
the existing large mines and building small mines.
Increases in the reported number of small mines
sometimes are quite high. For example, in Chekiang
Province during 1970, 800 small. coal mines were
opened in four counties within a six-month period.
Much of this "new" small-mine construction is
simply the reopening of mines that were abandoned
after the collapse of the Great Leap Forward.
11. Those communes or production brigades
which build new small mines need little in the
way of heavy initial infusions of capital, but
they do profit from the-technical assistance from
workers and technicians sent from the large mining
bureaus. Small mines are usually financed and
~iministrated by counties, communes, or production
brigades, and regulated by provincial authorities
who provide inspection teams to evaluate construc-
tion methods and cut costs.
12. The particular advantages of small coal
pits are their low capital requirements, speed of
construction, and low use of transport. Neverthe-
less, the rate of production from r,tany of these
small pits falls rapidly after two or three years
as supplies of coal at shallow depths are exhausted.
* For data on the dominance of the northern coaZ-
producing provinces, notably, Shansi, Hopeh, Shan-
tung, Liaoning, and HeiZungkiang, see the Appendix,
Table 2.
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At this point the operators face a choice between
shutting down or obtaining the mechanical equip-
ment needed for continuing operations at greater
depths. Thus the future of many of these coal
mines will depend upon the ability of the communes
or production brigades to finance the costs of such
equipment and their calculation of the benefits
which could accrue from such outlays. In a more
industrialized economy such mining ventures prob-
ably would not be undertaken, because operating
costs tend to be high and the quality of the coal
tends to be low. In China, the labor cost of the
ventures is minuscule because of the low opportunity
costs for labor. The transport costs also will be
low if the mines are being developed in coordination
with small local industrial plants.
13. Small mines usually take one year or less
to design, build, and put into production. Large
mines normally take about four years to build.
The large mines currently coming into production
have taken six or seven years to complete because
of the work stoppages during the Cultural Revolu-
tion. As_ndicated in Table 1, ten large mines
with a total capacity of at least 4.25 million
tons were completed in 1969. Nine have been re-
ported completed in 1970, but the total capacity
of large mines added in 1970 appears to have been
less than in the previous year. Thus the rateat
which new large mines are being opened may be
slowing down. The Chinese claim that more mines
were completed during the first eight months of
1970 than in all of 1969 seems to reflect the
current emphasis upon small-mine development.
More important, the additions to large-mine capacity
equal only about 1% of total production; even a
modest industrialization program would require
greater additions to capacity.
14. Construction and modernization of large
mines, which are still referred to as "the back-
bone of the coal industry," is not being abandoned
by the regime. However, since the Cultural Revolu-
tion the Chinese have not been reporting new mines
until their completion. Therefore: it is difficult
to estimate how many starts have been made on new
large mines. Modernization is continuing in some
cases, with foreign assistance. Poland is presently
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 Table 1
Communist China: Newly Constructed Large Mines
Anhwei
Hopeh
Hupeh
Inner. Mongolian
Huai-pei
K' ai-luan
Unknown
Autonomous Republic Unknown
Kansu Yao-chieh
Kiangsi Unknown
Kiangsu Unknown
Kiangsu Unknown
Kirin Unknown
Liaoning Chieh-fa
EMNEREffEm
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Capacity
(Thousand
Metric Tons)
Huai-pei
1,000
Tang-shan
Sheng-li
Hai-tai-shan
1,000
"Large "
"Large"
Unknown
900
Tung-shan No.
1
"Large"
cn
Chung-shan
300
C)
Unknown
450
Yen-pien
"Large"
C=J
Hsiao-wing
600
4, 2501
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Communist China:
Table 1
Ne;ily Constructed Large Mines
(Continued)
Capacity
(Thousand
Metric Tons)
Honan
Ping-ting-shan
No. 6
900
Hopeh
Unknown
Cheng-feng
310
Hopeh
Unknown
Unknown
500
Inner Mongolian
Cn
Autonomous Republic
Kirin
Wu-ta
Liao-yuan
Wu-hu-shan
Unknown
"Large"
450
Peking
Peking
Ching-hsing
Ching-hsing
Chia-chuang
No. 1
"Large "
650
Shensi
Unknown
Nan-k'ou
250
Sinkiang
Ha-mi.
Unknown
"Large"
3,060+
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helping China build coal-washing plants and is
supplying drilling machines and other equipment.
15. Although similarities exist between current
policies toward the coal, industry and those of the
Great Leap Forward era, the regime has undertaken
more careful planning {'or the allocation of human
and material resources within the coal industry.
For example, the abandoned workings of small mines
started during the Leap Forward frequently caused
difficulty in the subsequent development of larger
modern mines. Now the Chinese are trying to limit
now small-mine construction to the areas where
coal seams are thin and are apparently reserving
the large coal seams fo--, large-scale development.
In 1958-59, most of these small mines were worked
by peasants; this contributed to labor shortages
which adversely affected the planting and harvest-
ing of grain. Currently, local authorities are
tasked with monitoring the man-hours spent in the
small coal mines. When the communes or production
brigades begin to neglect their primary duty of
farming by spending too much time in coal mining,
county or provincial authorities redirect them to
the primary task of farming.
Consumption
16. From 50% to 60% of China's coal output --
chiefly that portion produced by the large mining
bureaus -- is allocated to industrial uses, in-
cluding the generation of electric power. About
75% of the elect;-ic.ty generated in China comes
from thermal powerplants fueled by coal. The
metallurgical industries also consume large quan-
tities of coal, and most other industries depend
on coal either as a raw material or as a fuel to
provide steam for heat processing. Between 10%
and 15% of China's coal output is consumed by the
transportation sector, principally by the railroads.
More than 90% of the locomotives used on Chinese
railroads are steam-driven. Although diesel loco-
motives are being produced in increasing quantities,
coal will remain the most important source of fuel
for the railroads for many years. The household
sector together with local handicraft industry uses
roughly 30% of total coal output.
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3.7. The development of small mines dovetails
with the current policy of building upsmall,indus-
trial facilities in outlying cities and towns. The
various local producers of iron and steel, machinery,
fertilizer, cement, paper, and br'ck all use .-oal
as a source of heat and power. in the case o~.'
local fertilizer-plants, coal is used also as a
raw material. The bulk of coal produced from small
mines is consumed by this expanding "local indus-
try.
18. At present, China has a shortage of coal,
although it is not critical. The shortage is
mostly felt in the household sector since indus-
trial needs are served first. Comp],a.nts about
shortages are more numerous from coal-deficient
provinces in the south than from the major coal
producing provinces of the north. "Self-
sufficiency" and "stop transporting coal from the
north to the south" are phrases often repeated in
.southern provincial radio broadcasts.
19. The nationwide drive to conserve coal has
led to campaigns for technological improvement
within various consumer industries. For example,
in the fertilizer industry a new coal powder gasi-
fication oven was developed in 1970 for the pro-
duction, of synthetic ammonia. This oven uses
1 ton of coal to produce 1 ton of synthetic
ammonia,-whereas.older ovens use l/ tons of coal.
The gasifter is of such simple construction and
low cost that chemical fertilizer plants at the
county and commune level can easily change over to
its use. In other industrial plants, particularly
those in southern areas where coking grade coal is
scarce, anthracite coal briquettes have been used
to cut down on the amounts of coke consumed. More
generally, boilers at many electric powerplants
and other industrial installations have been ren-
ovated in order to reduce coal consumption.
20. In the winter of 1970-71 the regime devoted
an usual effort to its fuel conservation campaign.
In December 1970 the office in charge of "ware-
house inventory and practicing economy" of the
State Planning Commission held a joint meeting in
Hopeh with the Ministry of Commerce "to exchange
experiences in conserving coal and firewood."
All of the provinces and autonomous regions in
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China were represented. The express purpose of
the meeting was to educate the household sector
in the significance of conserving coal and fire-
wood through the use of improved cookstoves.
Towns and cities located in coal producing areas
were also admonished to use low-grade coal in the
household and leave the high-grade coal for indus-
try. The campaign appears to have succeeded;
shortages were mild during the winter. The regime
seems to be indicating to its people that coal for
households is likely to remain in short supply for
some time to come.`
21. Communist China exports less than 1% of
its annual coal production. China exports coking
coal, to North Korea and North Vietnam, although
little coal has gone to North Vietnam for the past
two yeinrs because North Vietnamese steel produc-
tion has been halted by the war. China exports
anthracite coal to Pakistan and Japan, with small
amounts also going to Cambodia, Hong Kong, and
Malaysia. Chinese credits for coal have been of
importance to Pakistan since 1065 when Pakistan
banned coal imports from India. Coking coal ex-
ports to Japan, which were stopped in 1968, may
again he resumed.
22. Communist China imports c,: gal from only one
country -- anth-acite coal from North Vietnam.
This trade is advantageous for North Vietnam be-
cause it helps to alleviate the unfavorable balance
of trade with China, and it is advantageous for
China because the coal goes to the deficit areas
south of the Yangtze River, thereby saving on
transportation costs incurred in shipping coal
from north China.
Prospects
23. With proven coal reserves of between 70
billion and 80 billion tons and with a huge, in-
dustrious labor force, Communist China would not
seem to face serious; problems in meeting its future
needs for coal. The regime, however, cannot readily
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eliminate the general tightness which now marks
coal supply in China and, over the next five years,
may periodically encounter difficulties in pro-
viding increased amounts of coal for use in the
modern industrial sector. The specific goals of
the new Fourth Five-Year Plan (1971-75) remain un-
known; nevertheless, the regime almost certainly
expects to achieve sizable increases by 1975 in
the production of electric power, iron and steel,
chemicals, nonferrous metals, and industrial ma-
chinery and equipment. Coal production is now at
peak levels in China, Most of the high-quality
coal required to support increased levels of in-
dustr.i 1 production will have to come from new
large mines or further expansion of the existing
mines. Present Chinese policy toward the coal
industry apparently does not place high priority
on large-mine development. Given a construction
time of four years for bringing large mines into
production, some change in policy -- perhaps in-
cluding increased imports of foreign technology
and equipment -- would seem to be required fairly
soon.
24. The small-mine construction program will
contribute little to the flow of coal needed for
the expansion of modern industrial production.
However, there are virtues in the program -- in
particular, in its contribution to the program of
small-plant industrialization currently under way
in China. Furthermore, the small mines may even-
tually provide a means of alleviating the tightness
which marks the supply of coal for the household
sector. Produced from local deposits of coal with
local lar,or power and intended for consumption
by local industry, the output of the small mines
minimizes the requirements for coal which otherwise
could have to come from China's large mines. The
regime appears to be carefully controlling the
scope and pace of its small-plant industrialization
program and attempting to insure that the coal re-
quirements of these small, plants do not exceed the
capabilities of small-mine coal production. Thus
the lessons of the Lop Forward era -- when small
industrial plants became additional claimants on
the supplies of coal normally intended for modern
industrial use -- appear to have been taken into
account in regime planning.
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25. The problems of the coal industry in the
next five years are thus the product of Chinese
ambitions to speed up industrial development, now
that the economy has settled back to regularized
economic planning. They are largely problems of
providing a sensible and orderly balance among
supplies of fuels, raw materials, intermediate
products, and finished goods. The care and
planning that distinguishes current Chinese
decisions on new industrial construction from those
of the Leap Forward era suggests that the regime
will make the necessary adjustments. Squeezes will
be nonetheless inevitable and will hit the house-
hold sector hardest as expected under Communist-
style planning.
Conclusions
26. Coal production in Communist China reached
300 million tons in 1970, regaining the previous
peak level of 1959. Production from large mines,
which operated at less-than-capacity levels in the
late 1960s, was responsible for approximately 75%
of output in 1970, with output from small mines
accounting for the remainder. Production at the
large mines is now pressing capacity, and increases
in total output of the magnitude achieved in the
past two years almost certainly will not be re-
peated within the next few years.
27. The current policy of the regime emphasizes
the construction of small local mines using labor-
intensive methods of coal extraction. This policy
takes advantage of widespread coal deposits and
China's abundant labor power. A similar policy
during the Leap Forward created havoc in the in-
dustry, but the current policies are being more
carefully planned and controlled in implementation
and seem more likely to succeed. Coal from these
small mines supports the operation of the hundreds
of small factories which have proliferated under
the regime's small-plant industrialization policies.
Coal from the large mines, generally of higher
quality, is chiefly consumed by modern industry
and transportation.
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28. Despite its huge reserves of coal, China
could face problems in providing the coal required
for industrial expansion during the now Fourth
Five-Year Plan (1971-75). Current expansion of
the industry is heavily oriented toward the develop-
ment of small mines whose output will support the
growing number of small local industrial plants.
However, if the regime is to provide the increased
amounts of coal needed in the modern industrial
sector, it must also give more attention to the
construction of and expansion of capacity at largo
modern mines. Those mines involve a lead time of
four years and there is little evidence so far
that the regime in facing up to this part of the
coal problem.
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Coal Production 1ntimato
L 1066 an 1560-76
Chinese Communint claims for coal production
usually are in terms of percentage incroanori for
the country an a whole or for various provinces.
Absolute figures are extremely rare. The last
figure for national output -- 190 million tons --
wan given for lb67 Pro- 25X1
vincial figures are - ae pr. mary source
of production estimates in thin memorandum, while
national data are used mainly an a cross-check.
'these reported incroanen are applied to previous
figuron to derive estimates. In caner where no
percentage in given, there often in the ntatoment
that the "production plan" "team completed. In thin
case it in assumed that the plan was ant at leant
an high an the previous year and probably a few
points higher. If the plan is reported an com-
pleted early, then further production in extra-
polated from the time of completion to the and of
the year. Thin extrapolation in modified when
equipment breakdowns or other advorne factors are
reported. In canon where no nubutantivo_ etate-
t ent are given for the province an a whole, pro-
duction has been ar.numed to have increancd very
little it at all during that year. Production
increase n reported for various r mining bureaus and
individual minen in those canoe worn examined to
estimate the Output. in the tare cases Where no
rep to on a province it g mince have been =tivon,
it in eat fnnt'e4 that no increnne :.n production war;
,a htev rd. 7h' .'.tare gate are u :u.all, rnntr'i.cted
to lcti~-proth,.ci..,tt p rc vinc.e and ; ;skc littI- d .z~ r-
once in ~.iae *.''da7tiill to i l .
?w
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Communit t China: Eritimatod Coal Production
by Provinco and Autonomourn iiogion
Million Matric 'font;
1970 Incroano
Ovor 1969
1966
1969
1970
(i'orcont)
Anhw(-,i 2
13.7
14.7
17.5
19
Chekiang
0.2
0.2
0.7
250
Fukion b
/ 0.4
0.4
0.7
75
Iloilune3.
ianr3 22.0
24.3
27.7
14
Ronan
17.9
19.4
23.0
19
Iiopeh an
d Peking 20.4
30.6
34.0
11
Ilun tin b
3.0
3.4
5.2
53
liupo
1.0
1.0
3.6
100
Inner rso
Autronom
ngolian ?
auti legion 4.5
7.0
7.5
7
Kanau an
d I'lingnia 4.6
5.1
7.1
39
Kiang;i
b/ 5.6
5.7
7.0
23
K1angcu
2.0
2.7
3.6
33
Ki.ri 9
10.3
10.0
12.4
24
Kwan~ 11
2.2
2.0
2.4
20
Kwangtun`
J I / 2.2
1.9
3.0
100
Kwc icliow
4.7
6.2
6.6
6
Liaoning
36.6
39.0
51.1
20
Shan i
35.7
331 2
34.9
5
.3h,-ntunI
14.4
19.5
30 . t3
5O
h jft~ n: 1
6.0
4.3
4.4
2
=1n, 1Rn
1.8
1.7
~.0
10
+ `~3 I1 S4*:~n
y +
12.0
J r0
9.1
1
0.0"
Tv-i ighal
1.9
2.2
ww4
9
'U #1
6.6
f:.0
9.7
21
yys .
5 w?? r
~=: y - yu
di TO A 5
X43 'z +i