EASTERN EUROPE'S AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE IN 1969 AND OUTLOOK FOR 1970

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030073-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 25, 2011
• Sequence Number: 73
• Publication Date: May 1, 1970
• Content Type: IM

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- I - .._../-J.+v v I I v-- 7 J
niidenrtial-
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
Eastern Europe's Agricultural Performance In 1969
And Outlook For 1970
-CooidewtiaL
ER IM 70-73
May 1970
Copy. No.
35
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and, 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law,
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CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
May 1970
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Eastern Eurroo ?e' s Agricultural Performance
in 1969 And Outlook For 1970
Introduction
In agriculture, 1969 was a disappointing year
for all the East European* countries but Hungary.
Crop production was down in the northern countries
and up in the southern countries from 1968, but
only in Hungary did output meet planned goals.
Livestock production grew scarcely at all, further
widening the imbalance between the supply and
demand for meat and meat products. Thase setbacks
and mounting consumer pressure for quality foods
have caused several East European leaders in recent
months to criticize agricultural programs and to
propose economic and administrative changes in
order to stimulate higher growth rates for agri-
cultural output, especially in the livestock
sector. The purposes of this memorandum are (1) to
review the 1969 agricultural performance of Eastern
Europe as a region; (2) to determine the economic
effects that 1969 production shortfalls will have
on foreign trade, food supplies, and production of
livestock products -- especially meat -- during
1970; and (3) to assess current prospects for
the 1970 harvest of winter grain.
* The terms East European or Eastern Europe in-
cZude the northern countries of Czechoslovakia,
East Germany, and Poland and the southern countries
of Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.
Note: This memorandum was produced solely by CIA.
It was prepared by the Office of Economic Research.
CONFIDENTIAL
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1968 1969
(pre iminary)
fell to the lowest level in four years. Growth
rates varied considerably from country to country:
a large increase in Hungary and a small one in
Bulgaria, practically no growth in Czechoslovakia
and Romania, and significant declines in East
Germany and Poland (see Table 1). The best per-
formance was turned in by Hungarian agriculture,
which achieved a 5/% rate of growth, thereby setting
a new high and exceeding the planned goal. All the
other countries failed to met plans, which called
for changes ranging from a 2% decline in Poland to
as much as a 20% increase in Romania. Adverse
weather conditions were largely responsible for
the slippage in total farm output for the region.
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CONFIDENTIAL
Production Declines, 1969
1. Total agricultural production in Eastern
Europe declined in 1969 for the second consecutive
year to a level no better than that of 1966 (see
the chart). Similarly, per capita production also
Indexes of net agricultural production for
Eastern Europe are...
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 Milo
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Table 1
Index of Agricultural Production for East European Countries a/
1957-59 = 100
Eastern
Czecho-
East
Year
Europe
Bulgaria
slovakia
Germany
Hungary
Poland
Romania
1960
107
107
106
108
106
107
107
1961
109
106
106
98
109
113
116
1962
103
114
102
91
100
107
108
1963
106
ill
101
100
113
105
109
1964
112
126
105
102
114
112
117
1965
114
128
102
112
108
114
121
1966
125
151
114
115
120
122
141
1967
128
152
120
121
129
123
145
1968
127
135
123
123
125
124
142
1969 b/
125'
137
122
113
132
120
141
a.. The value of crop production less feed (including imported grain),.
seed, and waste; plus the value of livestock products, including
changes in livestock numbers. FAO regional price weights (1952-56) for
Western Europe were used to compute the indexes.
b. Preliminary.
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LIMMUNKMERVAMM
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CONFIDENTIAL
2. The growth of the livestock and crop sec-
tors last year showed sharp differences between
the northern and southern countries within the
region. In the northern countries, livestock pro-
duction showed only slight gains, and the output
of crops dropped as much as 8% to 12% in Poland
and East Germany, respectively. By contrast, the
southern countries all registered sizable increases
in crop production over the drought year 1968,
but livestock production stagnated or declined.
The net effect was a decline in agricultural out-
put for Eastern Europe as a whole. Nevertheless,
the region closed out the decade with 1969 agri-
cultural output nearly 15% above the 1961-65
average.
Crop Production Mediocre
3. Total East European production of most
crops was below the level of 1968 and the annual
average of 1962-66. An important exception was
grain output, which increased by 3% to a new
high of 61 million tons. Sharp reductions of
about 20% occurred in the output of potatoes,
sugar beets, and oilseeds for the region. Total
output of other commodities such as tobacco,
vegetables, fruit, and green fodder was at most
slightly higher than in 1968. An increase in
both the area and yields per hectare of wheat,
barley, and corn contributed to the boost in
total grain output. For most other crops, how-
ever, a late spring combined with summer droughts
adversely affected both the areas harvested and
yields per hectare.
4. Harvest results within the region were
mixed, with crops in the southern countries
faring better than those in the northern group
(see Appendix Table A-i). As a result of
? excellent growing conditions, Hungary had an
outstanding crop year, setting production records
in grain (wheat and corn), sunflower seed, grapes,
and fruit; except for sugar beets, all other crops
showed increases over 1968, but output remained
below the 1962-66 average level. Bulgaria and
Romania, with less favorable growing conditions,
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CONFIDENTIAL
were unable to boost output of wheat above 1968.
Although good harvests of corn more than offset
the lower wheat harvests, the total grain output in
Bulgaria failed to reach the high levels of 1966 or
1967, and that of Romania was no better than in 1968.
Both countries claimed relatively large increases
for most other crops, except early vegetables,
potatoes, tobacco, grapes and, in Romania only,
sugar beets. Yields of green fodder crops and
pastures were much better than a year ago in
Hungary and Romania but only slightly better in
Bulgaria because of below-average soil moisture
for the second successive year.
5. Crop production in the northern countries
was affected by some of the worst growing condi-
tions in several years, ranging from spring frosts
to summer drought.* As a result; output of all
major crops, except for grain in Czechoslovakia
and Poland, registered rather sharp declines from
the high levels of 1968. The higher level of
grain output in Czechoslovakia and Poland reflects
an expansion in areas seeded to higher yielding
varieties of wheat and barley. East Germany, how-
ever, suffered a 12% reduction in grain production
as both the area seeded and yields declined. For
all three countries, output of nearly all spring-
planted crops -- potatoes, sugar beets, oilseed,
and forage -- slipped to the lowest level in sev-
eral years (see Appendix Table A-1). For example,
the East German potato harvest, of which 50% is fed
to livestock, was the smallest since 1961. The
Polish rapeseed harvest was only one-third that of.
1968; nearly one-half of the area seeded had been
lost to winter frosts. The production of forage,
fodder beets, and pastures in the northern region
also was reduced substantially by the late summer
drought. The poor condition of fall pastures caused
some premature feeding of short winter hay stocks
to cattle and horses. In addition, an early onset
of winter and extreme temperatures during the first
quarter of 1970 have further aggravated the live-
stock feed shortage.
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MEM
MEMAIMMIMENNEMEM
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Livestock Production Falters
6. The estimated total value of livestock
production for Eastern?Europe in 1969 showed less
than a 1% gain over 1968 (see Table 2). This was
the second consecutive year of near stagnation of
the livestock sector following an average annual
growth rate of 4% in the 1965-67 period. Increases
in output by two major producers, Czechoslovakia
and Poland, prevented a decline in regional pro-
ducttion; East Germany and Romania showed no signifi-
cant growth, and output declined in Bulgaria and
Hungary. The slowdown in production during the
past two years can be attributed in most countries
to one or more of the following, which may be
interrelated: short feed supplies, unfavorable
feed/livestock price ratios, labor shortages, and
decrease in private holdings of livestock.
7. The numbers of livestock of all major
categories declined and, except for cows, at the
end of 1969 were at the lowest level in several
years (see Appendix Table A-2). Although inven-
tories of cows continued to fall in Czechoslovakia
and Hungary, most other countries maintained or
slightly increased numbers in comparison with the
level in 1968. Feed shortages and government
efforts to meet strong demands for meat have con-
tributed to a high race of slaughter that depleted
hog herds during the past two years in many coun-
tries; a similar situation reduced,beef cattle
herds last year.. All the northern countries had a
bad potato harvest (an important hog feed), and
only Poland successfully prevented excessive
slaughtering of hogs last fall. This was accom-
plished by relatively quick government action last
October in announcing,supple.mental feed aid to
farmers and higher prices for fattened hogs-de-
livered after 1 January 1970. The resultant small
increase in the number of Polish hogs was equaled
only by Romania; declines of 3% to 8% were registered
in Bulgaria, East Germany, and Hungary. Last
year's decline in cattle herds was relatively
small, but the inability of Czechoslovakia and
Hungary to arrest a two- to three-year downtrend,
especially for cows, jeopardizes plans for any
short-run expansion of beef and milk production.
The relatively successful expansion of poultry
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Table 2
Annual Rates of Growth for Livestock Production I/
a. Derived from methodology and values computed for Table 1.
b. Preliminary.
Eastern
Czecho-
East
Year
Europe
Bulgaria
slovakia
Germany
Hun
ary
Poland
R
i
g
oman
a
1965
3.0
6.3
1.9
9.4
-7.9
3.4
2.9
1966
6.4
3.4
4.1
5.0
11.8
4.9
11.5
1967
2.7
8.3
6.0
1.7
4.,8
-1.0
6.3
1968
0.4
1.1
-0.5
4.6
-1.6
-0.7
-0.6
1969
0.6
-4.7
3.2
0.2
-1.0
1.7
0.6
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raising during the 1960s slowed in 1968 and out-
put went down slightly in 1969. Feed shortages
contributed to a drop in poultry f locks in Bulgaria
and Hungary while flocks in the other countries
showed no growth last year.
8. The strong uptrend in 1963-68 in the total
output and procurement of livestock products in
Eastern Europe weakened last year, and the per
capita availability of these products declined.
This situation has worsened in the first quarter
of 1970. The poorest performance was turned in
by Bulgaria and Hungary, whose output of all major
livestock products declined or failed to increase
over the level of 1968 (see Appendix Table A-2).
Eastern Europe's total production of red meat showed
no gain over the record year 1968; only East Germany
and Poland registered increases. Production of
pork, which accounts for more than 50% of red meat,
declined in all the southern countries and Czecho-
slovakia because of the excessive slaughtering of
hogs that occurred in 1968. Increased output of
beef and veal, a result of slaughtering down herds
rather than of improved productivity, was not
enough to offset the lower production of pork and
mutton. Production of poultry meat continued to
fol',!.ow the upward trend of the 1960s, except in
Bulgaria, but at a lower rate of growth. and partly
at the expense of size of flocks. A 1% increase
in milk production represented one of the few bright
spots last year for most countries in an otherwise
unfavorable performance of the livestock sector.,
This increase, which raised milk production to a
new high, was accompl4.shed by gains in productivity
despite poor fall pastures in the northern countries
and Bulgaria. Procurement of milk, however, fell
short of plans or declined in most countries as a
larger share of output was kept on farms for feeding.
As a result, commercial butter production fell
slightly in Poland, East Germany, and Romania. Egg
production showed little change from 1968 as gains
in the northern countries were largely canceled
by declines in the southern area.
Measures to Stimulate Meat Output
9. The unsatisfied demand for livestock products,
especially meat, rose sharply last year as personal
incomes continued to rise faster than per capita
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availability and shortages of potatoes and vegetables
diverted consumer spending to quality food substi-
tutes. It is estimated that per capita consumption
of red meat in Eastern Europe last year showed. no
increase except for a small one in East Germany.
The rising consumer dissatisfaction over chronic
shortages of meat as well as some other quality
foods has prompted officials in most countries
during recent months to announce plans or measures
aimed at boosting output of meat, especially pork,
during the next few years. Most of these measures
will have little impact on output before 1971.
These programs involve improving the profitability
of livestock raising, expanding the number of large-
scale specialized livestock production farms, and
increasing sharply the rate of growth of the mixed
feed industry. The latter two measures require
considerable increase in allocations of capital
resources to agriculture, which more countries now
appear willing to make. Romania, for example, has
unveiled a grandiose national livestock plan which
calls for doubling production in the 1971-75 period
and in support provides for twice the level of
investments to agriculture as compared with those
in the current five-year plan. Romania and other
East European countries also plan to step up Western
purchases over the next two to three years of
industrial-type installations for hog and poultry
raising.
10. Other measures offering prospects for a
somewhat quicker output response have been mostly
concerned with improving incomes of livestock pro-
ducers. These have included increasing producer
prices -- effective 1 January 1970 -- for deliveries
of beef cattle and fattened hogs in Poland and
Hungary; a reduction in land tax to Polish farmers
who contract to sell slaughter cattle above quota;
and a reduction of prices for mixed feed in Czecho-
slovakia and a price freeze on other production
inputs. Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria are believed
to be currently reviewing procurement prices for
all agricultural products with the intention of
raising livestock prices by 1971.
11. In addition to the above programs, offi-
cials in the southern countries and Czechoslovakia
have made recent statements implying or stating,
that more government support will be given to
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boosting livestock output on private plots of col-
lective farm members, which has been declining.
For Czechoslovakia and Romania this represents a
reversal of past policy. Such a change is largely
a recognition of the serious meat shortage and the
temporary contribution that the private sector might
make in providing additional livestock products at
low cost to the, government until such time as output
from proposed large-scale livestock enterprises
can meet demand.
12. Hungary has been the most open about the
need to stimulate livestock production on private
plots and last March introduced significant changes.
In addition to raising producer prices and guar-
anteeing feed supplies to private producers, retro-
active to 1 January 1970, the government has agreed
that the time cooperative members now spend on
raising livestock (beef cattle and pigs) may be
counted toward pensions and other social benefits,
provided that output is contracted for delivery to
the cooperative. How successful this measure will
be in boosting livestock output on private plots
remains to be seen, but this innovation could run
into political flak from officials in other Com-
munist countries, who have complained that collec-
tive members spend too much time on their plots at
the expense of collective farm operations. Bulgaria
has limited support to guaranteeing feed to private
producers who conclude contracts for sale of meat
and to taking the limit off the number of animals
that can be raised on private plots in mountainous
areas.
Agricultural Trade Developments, 1969-70
13. Eastern Europe's imports of grain in the
fiscal year ending 30 June 1970 are expected to
exceed by 0.5 million tons the estimated 5.8 million
tons imported last year (see Appendix Table A-3).
Import requirements of the northern countries are
estimated to be up by at least 1 million tons --
East Germany alone will need another one-half
million tons -- because of 1969 production short-
falls in feed grain and potatoes. The increase
in imports by the northern countries will be partly
offset by expected declines in grain imports by
Bulgaria and Hungary.
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14. In addition to grain, the northern coun-
tries each plan to increase imports of high-protein
feed supplements (oil cake and meals) because of
last year's poor harvests rf oilseed and to stretch
out supplies of feed grain.. The southern countries,
although self-sufficient in grain, also will be in
the import market for high-protein supplements and
barley to expand output of commercial feed mixes
for poultry and hogs.
15. The three northern countries have turned
to the West to meet a larger share of their grain
import requirements in FY 1970. They probably
will receive at most only about 3.8 million tons
from the USSR -- East Germany will get 400,000 tons
more to meet in part its additional requirements,
but Czechoslovakia will get 100,000 tons less.*
Thus at least 2.2 million tons, or 1 million tons
more than in FY 1969, will have to be purchased
elsewhere, largely from Western exporters. The
northern countries reportedly purchased more than
1 million tons of EEC feed wheat and barley in
late 1969. Poland also extended its agreement
with Canada to purchase 400,000 tons of wheat and
barley by mid-1971. US grain exports to Eastern
Europe in the last half of 1969 were running below
a year ago, but sales for FY 1970 are still likely
to exceed somewhat the 770,000 tons exported in
FY 1969. The bright spots in US grain exports
have been the record purchases of US corn by East
Germany, which may total one-half million tons by
mid-1970, and the April sale of 200,000 tons of
barley to Romania on Commodity Credit Corporation
credit. In addition, US sales of soybean meal
could set a record in FY 1970, if sales continue
at the rate of the first nine months.
16. The southern countries' total export avail-
ability of grain from the 1969 harvest is little
different from that of FY 1969, or an estimated
2.1 million tons. The availabilities of the indi-
vidual countries, however, differ sharply from
`-hose in FY 1969, with Hungary claiming a record
* According to calendar year grain trade agree-
ments, which are representative of FY 1970 ship-
ments because the majority of the grain will be
shipped during January-June 1970, or the Zast half
of FY 1970.
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CON IIADLA N'l'IAL
surplus of 700,000 tons of grain (mostly wheat),
Bulgaria a small surplus of corn rather than wheat,
and Romania an estimated 1.0 to 1.2 million tons,
largely 'nst 1.5 million tons in FY
1969. by last
March these countries had found markets for most of
their surplus grain in Europe and the Middle East.
Because of a late spring, any unsold surplus grain
may be withheld from the world market until the
outcome of this year's grain harvest is better
known.
17. Eastern Europe's strong upward thrust in
hard currency earnings during the 1963-67 period
from exports of agricultural products -- especially
livestock products -- came to a halt in 1968 and,
except for Hungary, stagnated or declined in 1969,*
mainly because of the supply problems described
above. Although exports of meat and slaughter
cattle continued to be major hard currency earners
for the region in 1969, total value was down
slightly. This setback further aggravated the
already unfavorable balance-of-payments situation
with West European countries for major agricultural
exporters such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Poland.
Hungary claimed an 11% increase in farm exports
to "capitalist" countries over the reduced level
of 1968 on the strength of larger exports of
wheat, fruit, and slaughter cattle. Hungary had
exceptionally favorable weather and reduced its
herds of beef cattle substantially in order to
take advantage of strong demand in Italy, its
chief market for meat.
18. Czechoslovakia and East Germany, both de-
pendent upon other Communist countries for a major
share of their agricultural imports, were forced
in 1969 to spend more hard currency than they had
planned for potatoes, foodstuffs, and meat.
Shortages in the other Communist countries in 1970
will again boost the hard currency expenditures of
Czechoslovakia and East Germany. East Germany
claims that imports of agricultural products from
Western countries this year will run more than $80
million above the amount originally planned.
Czechoslovakia also has indicated that record
imports of meat -- more than 100,000 tons -- and
* Statistics on the value of agricultural trade
are in terms of calendar years.
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eggs are planned for 1970 in addition to animal
feeds; a larger share must be purchased from
Western countries than in previous years. Czech
officials have already warned that the large
expenditures of hard currency for these imports
may reduce imports of industrial goods. Hungary
and Poland can expect smaller net foreign exchange
earnings from agricultural trade this year because
neither plan an increase in exports, but do plan
higher imports of some agricultural products, par-
ticularly pork and high-protein feeds. Thus the
southern countries and Poland will be unable to
improve their balance-of-payment position with
Western Europe in 1970 by expanding net agricul-
tural exports.
Production Plans and Prospects for 1970
19. In spite of the inevitable plans for in-
creased agricultural output from 12% to 16% in
Bulgaria and Romania, to 3% in the northern coun-
tries and 1% in Hungary -- prospects are hardly
encouraging. Little increase in livestock output
seems likely in Hungary or Bulgaria. Feed supplies
are somewhat better than a year ago, but the number
of productive livestock is down, and gains in pro-
ductivity are unlikely to offset this loss.
Attempts to rebuild herds also will restrict meat
output until late 1970 or early 1971, especially
in the northern countries, where a long, severe
winter has reduced productivity of livestock and
depleted already short fodder supplies. Even with
larger harvests of potato and fodder crops than
the exceptionally poor one of last year, the impact
of more feed on boosting livestock productivity,
especially meat and milk, will not be felt much
before early 1971. Procurement of slaughter
animals and eggs in most countries fell in the
first quarter of 1970 compared with a year ago.
This trend may continue into the third quarter
before being reversed.
20. Prospects for crop production in most
countries are currently no brighter than for live-
stock production, although more favorable weather
over the next several months can substantially
improve prospects. As of 1 May, the outlook for
the important winter grains (wheat, rye, and
barley) was less favorable than a year ago. The
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(.X)N F'I I .VN'L'J A),
area seeded to winter grain last fall was reduced
and germination delayed because of dry soil condi-
tions. Winter wheat plantings, especially in the
southern countries, entered the winter poorly
developed, making them very susceptible to winter-
kill. In early December, a long severe winter not
in throughout the region with snows occurring an
late an early April. Floods followed from the
thawing snow and above-normal precipitation. The
full extant of damage to winter grain is not yet
known, but reports of winterkill, snow mold, and
wator-loggcd grain fields point to above-normal
losses of winter grain arean.* It is unlikely that
all the damaged areas of wheat can be replanted
to spring wheat because of the late spring.
21. Bad weather also has seriously delayed
spring planting operations for the second succes-
sive year, with the greatest setback to the northern
countries, especially Last Germany. Those countries,
fwd with relatively short growing seasons, were
unable to start field work in many areas until
early April, some four to six weeks behind schedule.
By mid-April, farmers in the northern provinces of
East Germany and Poland had barely started the
seeding of spring grain, normally completed by this
time. The shortened period for spring planting in
the northern countries threatens plans for expanded
acreages of root, forage, and vegetable crops.
Based on preliminary reports of fewer signings of
grower contracts, shortages of need potatoes, and
the acreage reductions experienced last year under
a protracted planting period, a decrease rather
than an increase may occur in plantings of potatoes,
sugar beets, and spring grain. Moreover, the later
these crops are planted, the less chance there in
for maximizing yields.
22. in the southern countries, excessive
moisture and cold temperatures have delayed spring
planting, but an of 1 May the outlook was slightly
better for spring crops than a year ago in Bulgaria
and Romania,** although not in Hungary. Early
144 Unknown amagcr va ine d to crops by la .i hay floodo
in Romania may reduce: cfarlivr prcupecte. in of
25 May an estimated oral-half' million oar oo of
agricultural land had barn flooded with r;oro ex-
pected when the Danube crusts n the Delta.
- 15 -
CONFIDENTIAL
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(;UN I"I I )F;N'L'I AL,
Vegetable crops, an important foreign exchange
earner for Bulgaria and ilomania, are expected to
be below normal for the second successive year.
For other crops, however, warm sunny weather dur-
ing the May-June period could speed up plant growth
and overcome moat of the delay in vegetation. The
area planted to corn and late vegetables could be
the largest in several years: officials are pushing
those crops to replace lamagod winter wheat areas
or to compensate for smaller acreages of spring
barley and oats. An oft May, soil mointuro was
adequate throughout the area for the germination of
spring crops and uustainod development of winter
grains.
Conclunionrs
23. Agricultural production in Eastern Europe
declined last year for the second consecutive year,
and the outlook for 1970 in not bright. The area's
aggregate production of most crops dropped below
the levels of both 1960 and the 1962-66 annual
average, with the important exception of grain out-
put, which not a new high of 61 million tons.
Sharp reductions of 20% or more occurred in output
of root crops, oilccedn, and forage, reflecting
shortfalls in the large producing countricu of East
Germany and Poland. Thu value of livestock produc-
tion, unlike crop production, increased, but by
lean than It for the second connr+cutivo year.
Gains in livestock production in the northern
countries offnct dnclinor. in thn unuthernn couunn-
trieu .
24. Shortages of livestock product`, especially
pork, eggn j and butter, worsened during 1969, and
no significant improvement is expected before late
1970, if then, in most countries. Unnatinfied
demand for moat continued to grow as personal
incomes rose and as Shortage-s- of vegetables= and
potatoes put added pressure on retail nunpliec of
livestock products, especially in Czecho nlovakia,
East Germany, and Poland. febuilding of horde
and attempts to maintain livestock exports are
likely to exclude any increano in meat supplies
through most of this year.
25. The large shortfall in output of important
livestock feed., such an potatoes, fodder beets,
CON I:II)I N`I'IAL
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030073-8
CONV1I)1?N'1'IA1,
green forage, and -- in East Germany -- grain, han
forced all the northern countrion to increase
imports of grain and high-protein tiupplementn
during 1'Y 170 in an effort to prevent a signifi-
cant drop in liveutock herds and meat production.
Total East, European imports of grain this fiscal
year may exceed by 0.5 million tone the estimated
5.0 million tones imported last year. 11otai avail-
able grain for export by the southern countries
approximates that of last year, or about 2 million
tons. Uecreaaed exports by Bulgaria and Romania
will be offset by export of 700,000 tons (montly
wheat) by Hungary, which had exceptionally good
weather and a record harvent. 'Inc ?strong prefer-
ence of Hungary and Romania for exporting r;rain to
the Wont and soviet reluet:ance to incretan;c exports;
to Eastern Europe have forced northern countriclu
to p''rchane more Wortern grain thin year. The
United States sham of this larger market shown no
sign of increasing. 11wever, Us Hale of soybean
meal to Eastern Europa could net a record thin
fiscal year, if sales for the balance of the year
continue at the name rite an during the first nine
months.
26. The outlook for any n igni f icant qa i sass in
agricultural production thin year by any 1.a nt
Iuropean country In dim. Growth of livostc)ck
production in the southern countries: will be,
limited by the smaller numbers of productive live-
stock at the beginning of 1970 eonpared with a year
ago, and in the northern countries by s hor; aness
of fodder and rna1Icr herein. Also at, of 1 May
crop prospects, wer?? not no rood an a year a o in
the northern county ica and Hungary, and no belt ter
in Bulgaria and Romania. Ai fall drou,.;ht, -a ionq
severe winter, excennive nprin(i precipitation, and
floods have caue'?:1 cite nni vo d.11-Inge to F 3. i. ". r
grains, delayed the planting of port: nprinri crops
beyond the optimum, and reduced acre 3rsen of s;o;--.e
crops. ravorable weather durin(i the ronthn
can of course i -.pravo the current 1trKs;}?C] to , but 'A"
ncct?'3 unlikely that Lnc nl;it'~ {I lsi7! }t[iri,s~a i ivi. .+,.
196) can be repeated or that more than save: afte
harvcntn. of r ont other crop?; can be e>:1 c-ctcd.
(ON FI I)ENTI Al.
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(X)NFlI)EN'i.'TAl
:;tat Inticnl
CONFIDENTIAL
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 [IMMEWAM11
ININIMNAM
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A-1. !.water: ::c rcpe. Pro~cct.io a of Selected Croy s
Million metric TOMS
~rww
+. V}74~1. is
czec"ho-
s 1o'i aEia
Est
G'rL'ma.r
"` rga^.
LP' olaz d
R
=
wnia
.
.
T o t 11.
1962-6:6 a0vc r13:;,
5.17
5.54
6.06
6.85
15.02
11.49
50.13
1967
6.42
6.53
7.35
7.43
16.44
13.44
57
66
1968
5. 2
7.36
7.33
7.80
18.20
12.70
.
59
11
1969
5.93
7.89
6.89
9.00
18.55
12.74
.
61.00
z
3reAd q;;ai l Cl
1952-65 .7,t~t,;w
7.50
2.75
3.22
2.26
10.52
4.63
25.89
z
1967
3.25
3.20
4.00
2.94
11.63
5.39
30
95
1968
2.57
3.92
4.31
3.07
13.19
4.90
.
31
96
z
:1969 b/
2.54
3.95
1.79
3.32
13.34
4.40
.
31.34
E
Coarse gran d/
1962-66 ave.-age
2.67
2.79
2.84
4.59
4.50
6.86
24.25
1967
3.13
3.33
3.35
4.54
4.81
7.55
26.71
1968
2.65
3.44
3.52
4.74
5.03
7.80
27.16
1969 /
3.3)
3.94
3.10
5.68
5.21
8.34
29.66
?'O tatc.e_-
1962-65 a,:,,cra7e
0.4D
5.74
12.94
1.90
44.14
2.67
67.76
1967
0.3
6.04
14.07
1.51
48.62
3.10
73.72
1968
0.37
6.53
12.64
1.34
50.32
3.717
75.41
1969
0.33
5.02
9.14
1.53
44.35
2.23
63.13
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030073-8
Table ? -1. rEa;ites:: Europe: Production 0_ Selected Crops
(Contir?ued)
Mill .0n metric ions
Czec o- E3St
Co=a ditV and Years Bus'