PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET MILITARY TECHNOLOGY AND R&D VOLUME I-THE ESTIMATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP00B00369R000100060002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 50
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 12, 2011
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 31, 1980
• Content Type: NIE

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Prospects for Soviet Military
Technology and R & D
National Intelligence Estimate
Volume I-The Estimate
NIE 11-12-80
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Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
NOCONTRACT- Not Releasable to Contractors or
Contractor /Consultants
PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Involved
NFIBONLY- NFIB Departments Only
ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
REL ...- This Information Has Been Authorized for
Release to .. .
Foreign Government Information
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NIE 11-12-80
PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET MILITARY
TECHNOLOGY AND R8~D
Volume I-The Estimate
[nformation available as of 31 July 1980 was
used in the preparation of this Estimate.
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THIS ESTIMATE IS ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE.
THE NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD CONCURS,
EXCEPT AS NOTED IN THE TEXT.
The fol%wing intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of the
Estimate:
The Central Intelligence Agency, the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State and Energy, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the National Security
Agency.
Also Participating:
The Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
The Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
The Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
The Director of Intelligence, Headquarters, Marine Corps
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SCOPE NOTE
This National Intelligence Estimate was prepared in response to a
recxuest from the Under Secretary of Defense, Research and Engineer-
ing, for an assessment of Soviet prospects for military technology and
R&D and of the relative US and Soviet standings in key military tech-
nologies. The Estimate addresses:
- The status and prospects of key Soviet technologies for the
1980x.
- The ability of Soviet military research and development to
meet future military requirements.
- The resources allocated to R & D for the 1980x.
- Projected new military systems in significant mission areas for
the 1990x.
The Estimate does not describe systems that will reach operational
status in the 1980s and form part of the total Soviet military capabilities
for the 1990x. Soviet requirements and programs for the deployment: of
military forces, as well as projected Soviet military capabilities for the
1980x, are described in other NIEs. The findings of those NIEs have
been taken into account in our projections of Soviet systems for the
1990x. The. projections do not deal with the effectiveness of the individ-
ual systems or with the contributions they will make to overall Soviet
military capabilities.
Sixteen technology areas have been identified as key to Soviet mili-
tary weapons development and are addressed in this Estimate. Some
important areas, such as electronic warfare and command and control,
are not addressed, although communications for command and control
systems are discussed. When we have not been able to see a direct
connection between basic research and development of a key technol-
ogy we have not related that research to projected future systems.
Comparisons with US technology are used to provide benchmarks
for the description of Soviet capabilities in key technologies and to show
relative technological standings. Technology is only one input to mili-
tary effectiveness, and no conclusion should be drawn from the
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comparisons of technology in this Estimate as to comparative military
capabilities. The relative status of US-Soviet technology is consistent
with that used in the fiscal year 1981 posture statement of the Under
Secretary of Defense, Research and Engineering.
~~
Top Secret
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CONTENTS
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SCOI'1~: NOTE ........................................................................................................... iii
1'N1~;E:~CF. .................................................................................................................. 1
kEl' JIiDGMF.NTS ................................................................................................... 3
DISCLSSION ............................................................................................................. 15
L 'IHF. SOVIET MILITARY R&D PROCESS ............................................... l5
A. The Soviet Organization for Military R&D ............................................. 15
R. Weapon Design Philosophy and Plan and Program Management ........ 17
C. Critical Aspects of Soviet R&D Organization and Management ........... 19
D. Prospects for Change in the 1980s ........................................................... 20
IL ~tII.ITARY R&D RESOURCES .................................................................. 21
A Past Trends ................................................................................................ 21
R Prospects for the 1980s ............................................................................. 22
III. hF,Y SOVIET TECIINOLOGIF.S ................................................................ 23
A The Soviet Technology Ralance ................................................................ 23
R Soviet Ac