TRADE IN PETROLEUM BETWEEN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC AND THE FREE WORLD 1950-56

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CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2
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RIPPUB
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S
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49
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December 23, 2016
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May 31, 2013
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2
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Publication Date: 
July 22, 1957
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 50X1 TRADE IN PETROLEUM BETWEEN THE SINO - SOVIET BLOC AND THE FREE WORLD 1950-56 CIA/RR 93 22 July 1957 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : 'CIA-R DP79R01141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79RO1 141A000800080002-2 - WARNING This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79ROl 141 A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 TRADE IN PETROLEUM BETWEEN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC AND THE FREE WORLD 1950-56 CIA/RR 93 (ORR Project 25.1576) Office of Research and Reports S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 The purpose of this report is to examine the trade in petroleum between the Sino-Soviet Bloc and the Free World. An attempt has been made to show the degree to which petroleum from the Bloc has entered the markets of the Free World and the extent to which some of the countries of the Free World are dependent on petroleum from 50X1 the, Bloc. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79R01141A000800080002-2 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 I. Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 A. Total Sino-Soviet Bloc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 B. USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 C. Rumania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 D. East Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 E. Hungary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 F. Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland . . 5 II. Destination of Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 III. Impact on the Free World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IV. Means of Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 V. Imports from the Free World . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 VI. Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 VII. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Country of Origin, 1950-56 . . 12 2. Value of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Country of Origin, 1950-56 . . 13 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79R01141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 3. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product, 1950-56 . . . 14 4. Percentage Distribution of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product, 1950-56 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 5. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product and by Country of Origin, 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 6. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product and by Country of Origin, 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 7. Value of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product and by Country of Origin, 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 8. Value of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product and by Country of Origin, 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 9. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the USSR to the Free World, by Type of Product, 1950-56 . . . . . . . 20 10. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from Rumania to the Free World, by Type of Product, 1950-56 . . . . . . . 21 11. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from East Germany to the Free World, by Type of Product, 1950-56 . . . . . 22 12. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from Hungary to the Free World, by Typ9f Product, 1950-56 . . . . . . . 23 13. Weight of Exports of Petroleum Prom Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland to the Free World, by Type of,-Product, 1950-56 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 14. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Country of Destina- tion, 1955 and 1956 . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 25 15. Imports of Petroleum by the Free World from the Soviet Bloc, as a Percentage of Domestic Con- sumption, 1955 and 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 16. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Principal Means of Transport, 1954-56 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 17. Weight of Imports of Petroleum by the Soviet Bloc from Austria, 1955 and 1956 . . . . . . . 28 Figure 1. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Country of Origin, 1950-56 . . . . . . . 12 Figure 2. Figure 3. Value of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Coun- try of Origin, 1950-56 . . . . . . . . . 14 Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product, 1950-56 . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 4. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product and by Country of Origin, 1955 and 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Figure 5. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Principal Means of Transport, 1954-56 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 CIA/RR 93 S-E-C-R-E-T (ORR Project 25.1576) TRADE IN PETROLEUM BETWEEN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC AND THE FREE WORLD* 1950-56 Trade in petroleum between the Sino-Soviet Bloc** and the Free World*** increased steadily from about 240,000 metric tons*'** with a value of US $7.3 million/ in 1950 to a high of 6.4 million tons with a value of more than $140 million in 1956. Such trade was in- significant by Free World standards, however, representing less than 2 percent of total world trade in petroleum. The bulk of the trade in petroleum between the Sino-Soviet Bloc and the Free World has consisted of exports of crude oil and petro- leum products from the Soviet Bloc// to countries of Western Europe and the Middle East. The only significant imports of petroleum from the Free World have been those received by the USSR as reparations from Austria. Communist China and the Far Eastern Satellites/// have not traded in petroleum with the Free World and are not expected to do so in the near future. As recently as 1953 the European Satellites,//// chiefly Rumania, provided more than 70 percent of the 1.9 million tons of petroleum exported by the Soviet Bloc to the Free World. By 1956 the share of the European Satellites was reduced to less than 35 percent of the total of 6.4 million tons, and the USSR provided more than 65 percent. * The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best judgment of ORR as of 1 June 1957. *-* The USSR, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hun- gary, Poland, Rumania, Communist China, the Mongolian Peoples Republic, North Korea, and North Vietnam. *-** All countries not included in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. ** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report. / Dollar values are given in US dollars throughout this report. The USSR, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania. /f/ The Mongolian Peoples Republic, North Korea, and North Vietnam. //// Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Nearly 75 percent of the exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World in 1956 were destined for Western Europe, and nearly 25 percent were exported to the Middle East. Finland, Italy, and Sweden constituted more than 50 percent of the European market. Egypt received more than 70 percent of the exports to the Middle East. Only three countries -- Afghanistan, Finland, and Iceland -- received nearly all of their petroleum from the Soviet Bloc. More than 75 percent of the exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World have been in the form of petroleum products, although exports of crude oil are becoming increasingly important. Egypt and Italy are the primary recipients of crude oil, which is exported almost exclusively by the USSR. Since 1954, exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World have been equivalent to approximately 6.5 percent of the crude oil produced in the Bloc. If this ratio of 6.5 percent is maintained and if the Bloc achieves its goal for production of 152 million tons of crude oil in 1960, exports of petroleum to the Free World in 1960 will be about 10 million tons. The European Satellites appear to be relegated to ,a secondary position in exporting petroleum to the Free World, and approximately 75 percent of such exports in 1960 are expected to come from the USSR. Although the quantity of petroleum exported by the European Satellites to the Free World may increase slightly during the next few years, the European Satellites are not expected to supply more than 25 per- cent of such exports from the Bloc by 1960. Before 1956, about 89 percent of the exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World were carried in Free World tankers, and less than 3 percent were carried in Soviet tankers. The remain- ing 8 percent of such exports were carried by rail, river barge, small tankers on the Baltic Sea, or tank truck. In 1956, Soviet tankers carried more than 17 percent of such exports, and this percentage is expected to increase as the USSR increases the size of its tanker fleet. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 I. Exports. A. Total Sino-Soviet Bloc. Exports of petroleum from the Sino-Soviet Bloc to the Free World rose from less than 240,000 tons in 1950 to 6.4 million tons in 1956.* In 1954, exports of petroleum from the Bloc were more than 20 times those in 1950, and in 1956 they were almost 27 times those in 1950. The greatest increase in any one year, 162 percent, occurred in 1954. The annual increase dropped to 12 percent in 1955 and rose to 16 percent in 1956. The value of exports of petroleum from the Sino-Soviet Bloc to the Free World increased from $7.3 million in 1950 to $141.3 million in 1956.** Except in 1950, when the average value per ton exceeded $30 as a result of an unusually high percentage of gasoline in the exports, these exports have had an average value of $21 per ton. Communist China and the Far Eastern Satellites have not traded in petroleum with the Free World and are not likely to do so in the near future. Residual fuel oil was the principal petroleum product exported by the Soviet Bloc to the Free World during the period 1951-56,*** although its relative importance decreased from two-thirds of the total in 1951 to one-third in 1956 as exports of crude oil and gas oil increased.**X* Crude oil has become increasingly important in the exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World. Whereas all of such exports had consisted of petroleum products in 1950, crude oil had become a major item by 1956.**** The USSR supplied almost all of the crude oil,/ which accounted for almost 14 percent in 1955 and almost 17 percent in 1956 of the total value of petroleum exported by the Bloc to the Free World.ff The USSR also supplied about 61 per- cent by weight of the gasoline, 74 percent of the gas oil, and 58 per- cent of the residual fuel oil exported in 1956.fff * See Table 1, Appendix A, p. 12, below. ** See Table 2, Appendix A, p. 13, below. *** See Table 3, Appendix A, p. 14, below. ** See Table 4, Appendix A, p. 15, below. f See Tables 5 and 6, Appendix A, pp. 16 and fff See Tables 7 and 8, Appendix A, pp. 18 and See Table 5, Appendix A, p. 16, below. 17, 19, respectively, below. respectively, below. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Since 1950 the USSR has become increasingly important as an exporter of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, and since 1954 it has been the leading exporter.* The USSR, which had supplied less than 30 percent of such exports during 1950-53, pro- vided 54 percent.in 1954 and more than 67 percent in 1956. Soviet exports increased from 69,000 tons in 1950 to nearly 3.1 million tons in 1955 and to 4.3 million tons in 1956.** The value of Soviet exports increased from $2.5 million in 1950 to almost $61 million in 1955 and to almost $93 million in 1956.*** C. Rumania. Rumania was the leading source.of exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World during 1950-53 but slipped to second place during 1954-56.* In 1956, Rumania supplied about one- quarter of such exports, or 1.6 million tons. The value of these exports from Rumania reached a peak of more than $45 million in 1955 but declined to less than $39 million in 1956.*** Quantitatively, residual fuel oil has been the most important petroleum product exported by Rumania to the Free World since 1951.**** Exports increased from 274,000 tons'in 1951 to more than 1.1 million tons in 1954, but decreased to 688,000 tons in 1956. The relative importance of residual fuel oil has declined since 1954 as the share of the total exports of the lighter products (gasoline, kerosine, and gas oil) increased. In 1955, nearly one-half of the Rumanian exports were in the form of residual fuel oil, and nearly one-fifth consisted of gasoline. In 1956, kerosine replaced gasoline as the second most important export. Since 1951, East Germany has supplied less than 10 percent of the total exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World. * See Table 1, Appendix A, p. 12, below. ** See Tables 1 and 9, Appendix A, pp. 12 and 20, respectively, below. ** See Table 2, Appendix A, p. 13, below. **** See Table 10, Appendix A, p. 21, below. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Such exports from East Germany, which have shown no consistent trend, consisted almost entirely of gasoline and gas oil during 1950-56.* Hungary did not export petroleum to the Free World in appre- ciable quantities until 1955 and 1956.** In both years, virtually all of such exports were in the form of residual fuel oil shipped to Austria, West Germany, and Switzerland. Exports of petroleum from Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland to the Free World increased from 92,000 tons, valued at $1.4 million, in 1955 to 155,000 tons, valued at $3 million, in 1956 and consisted almost entirely of residual fuel oil and gasoline.*-** Poland supplied nearly all of the residual fuel oil in both years, and Czechoslovakia provided all of the gasoline in 1956, when shipments increased sharply and accounted for nearly one-half of the petroleum supplied by these countries. In 1955, exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World amounted to nearly 5.5 million tons, of which 70 percent was shipped to Western Europe, nearly 17 percent to the Middle East, and 13 percent elsewhere.*-*'** Nearly three-quarters of the 6.4 million * See Table 11, Appendix A, p. 22, below. * See Table 12, Appendix A, p. 23, below. See Tables 2 and 13, Appendix A, pp. 13 and 24, respectively, below. *** See Table 14, Appendix A, p. 25, below. The figures shown in this table are estimates of the amount of petroleum that left'the Soviet Bloc in 1955 and 1956 and were compiled from data on shipping. Differences may exist between the quantities shown in the table and the statistics reported by the importing countries because the inter- val of time between the date of shipping and the date of receipt in the. importing countries may be as much as 3 weeks and also because the countries shown in the table are the original destinations reported at the Bosporus and are not necessarily the ultimate recipients. For example, it is known that most or all of the petroleum reported as destined for the Netherlands and Belgium is subsequently transshipped to France, West Germany, and probably Switzerland, but complete data on transshipments are not available. -5- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 tons exported by the Bloc in 1956 went to Western Europe and nearly one-quarter to the Middle East. In 1956, Finland, Egypt, Sweden, and Italy received 60 percent of all the petroleum exported by the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, and more than 55 percent of the crude oil was shipped to Italy and Egypt. III. Impact on the Free World. Most of the exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World go to a group of small countries whose requirements for petro- leum are not large and to whom these imports are important. Afghan- istan, Egypt, Finland, Greece, Iceland, Israel, and Yugoslavia re- ceived nearly 50 percent of the petroleum exported by the Bloc to the Free World in 1955 and more than 55 percent of such exports in 1956.* Of these countries, Afghanistan, Finland, and Iceland re- ceived enough petroleum from the Bloc to satisfy near]-y all of their requirements.** The seven countries listed, however, consumed less than 10 percent of the petroleum consumed by all of the countries of the Free World which imported petroleum from the Bloc. The entire group of these countries received from the Bloc enough petroleum to satisfy only 5 percent of their requirements in 1955 and 6 percent in 1956. For most of the countries of the Free World the importance of the Soviet Bloc as a source of supply for petroleum in 1956 either re- mained the same as in 1955 or increased.* Soviet motives in sharply increasing exports of petroleum to several countries, notably Afghan- istan, Egypt, Greece, Syria, and Yugoslavia, are apparently political as well as economic because of the strategic importance of these coun- tries to the Bloc. In Austria, Iceland, Sweden, and Switzerland, de- creases in imports of petroleum from the Bloc are believed to have been basically economic rather than political. The decrease in exports of petroleum from the Bloc to Israel was political in nature and oc- curred as the result of an embargo imposed by the USSR in November 1956. Most of the petroleum exported by the Soviet Bloc to the Free World has been carried by tanker from the Black Sea. During 1954-56, about 92 percent of the petroleum was shipped by sea, primarily in Free World * See Table 14, Appendix A, p. 25, below. ** See Table 15, Appendix A, p. 27, below. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 tankers.* The amount carried by the Soviet tankers increased from less than 135,000 tons in 1954 and 1955 to more than 1 million tons in 1956, or 17 percent of all the petroleum exported to the Free World in that year. During 1954-56, about 8 percent of all such exports were shipped by other means such as rail, river barge, small tankers on the Baltic Sea, and tank truck. The most significant of these other shipments are those by rail. V. Imports from the Free World. Austria is the only country in the Free World which has exported important quantities of petroleum to the Soviet Bloc.** Before the conclusion of the peace treaty with Austria, the Austrian oil indus- try was under the control of the Soviet Mineral Oil Administration (SMV), and the USSR met the deficits in petroleum of the European Satellites primarily with imports from Austria. Under the terms of the armistice agreement the shipments were made against the Soviet account, although this was actually Austrian petroleum. A similar situation exists under provisions for reparations con- tained in the peace treaty. V**-* Under the treaty the oil industry was returned to Austria, but Austria is obliged to pay reparations to the USSR in the form of 1 million tons of crude oil a year for 10 years. Moreover, as a part of the payments for the return of the industries which had been under the Administration of Soviet Enter- prises in Austria (USIA), Austria is required to supply to the USSR an additional 200,000 tons of crude oil a year for 6 years. Imports of petroleum from Austria amounted to about 1.4 million tons in 1955 and about 1.5 million tons in 1956,** all of which were delivered to the European Satellites. The important difference be- tween 1955 and 1956 in the imports from Austria was in the product mix. Crude oil, which had accounted for about 81 percent of the total im- ports of petroleum in 1955, accounted for 93 percent of the total in 1956. West Germany is known to have exported small quantities of petro- leum products to Poland in 1955, but there is no record of any such shipments in 1956. Negligible quantities of petroleum from various countries of the Free World are known to have been smuggled into Com- munist China. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 VI. Potential. Since 1954 the Soviet Bloc has maintained its exports of petroleum to the Free World at about 6.5 percent of production by the Bloc. The same ratio of exports to production probably can be continued for several years, and in 1960 exports of petroleum will probably still equal 6.5 percent of production by the Bloc. The current Five Year Plans of the various countries of the Bloc establish goals for produc- tion totaling 152 million tons in 1960, and, therefore, exports of petroleum from the Bloc to the Free World in 1960 may amount to 10 million tons. The USSR plans to increase the production of crude oil from 83.8 million tons in 1956 to 135 million tons in 1960, an increase of approximately 50 million tons. If 6.5 percent of this increase of 50 million tons is exported, Soviet exports of petroleum to the Free World will increase by 3.3 million tons in 1960 over the 4.3 million tons exported in 1956. Consequently, Soviet exports of petroleum to the Free World may be about 7.6 million tons, or approximately 75 per- cent of the estimated 10 million tons to be exported by the Bloc in 1960. The remaining 2.4 million.tons, or approximately 25 percent of the estimated exports from the Bloc in 1960, probably will be supplied by the European Satellites. VII. Conclusions. One of the outstanding recent developments in trade in petroleum between the Soviet Bloc and the Free World has been the decrease in the share of the trade handled by the European Satellites. As recently as 1953, the European Satellites provided more than 70 percent of the exports of petroleum from the Bloc to the Free World. In 1954 and 1955 the share of the Satellites in this market was about 45 percent of the total, and by 1956 their share was further reduced to less than 33 per- cent of the total of 6.4 million tons. In 1956, exports of petroleum from the European Satellites to the Free World declined 320,000 tons below the level of 1955, principally because of the, failure to increase production of domestic crude oil as planned. Production of crude oil in the Satellites in 1956 amounted to 12.9 million tons, the same as in 1955. In Hungary there was actually a decrease in production which amounted to about 400,000 tons. Another factor which reduced the amount of petroleum available for ex- port to the Free World was the increased domestic demand for 300,000 tons Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 over and above the additional quantity imported in 1956, which is estimated at 180,000 tons. The European Satellites appear to be relegated to a secondary position in the trade in petroleum between the Soviet Bloc and the Free World. Although the quantity of petroleum exported by the Satellites may increase slightly during the next few years, the Satellites are not expected to supply more than 25 percent of the exports of petroleum from the Bloc to the Free World by 1960. A considerable readjustment of shipments of petroleum within the Soviet Bloc, and possibly of exports from the Bloc, will be necessary when the payments of reparations by Austria are terminated. Austria will be able to reduce exports to the Bloc by 200,000 tons in 1961 and. by an additional 1 million tons in 1965, when payments of repara- tions will be completed. It is expected that Austria will direct all of its exports of petroleum to the Free World at the earliest oppor- tunity. Free World tankers carried more than 90 percent of the petroleum exported by the Soviet Bloc to the Free World before 1956.E Additional Soviet tankers, put into service during 1956, made it possible for the USSR to increase the percentage of exports hauled by Soviet tankers to 17 percent. Further additions to the Soviet tanker fleet should enable the USSR to increase the percentage of exports hauled in Soviet tankers. The recent disruption of supplies from the Middle East resulting from the closure of the Suez Canal has increased the interest of Western Europe in importing from the Soviet Bloc petroleum which can be shipped from the Black Sea. Because petroleum represents a readily acceptable commodity in trade between the Bloc and the Free World, it is probable that the Bloc will continue to export petroleum as an item of foreign trade as well as an instrument of penetration. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T APPENDIX A STATISPICAL DATA Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Country of Origin a/ 1950-56 Thousand Metric Tons Origin 1950 J 1951 122LI)i 12 1954 .J 12aJ 122L L USSR 69 128 269 518 2,647 3,074 4,295 Rumania 81 386 614 1,229 1,951 2,013 1,630 East Germany 75 8 38 119 265 151 184 Hungary 11 Negligible 0 0 14 137 105 Other E/ 1 Negligible 0 0 9 92 155 Total J 238 522 221 1,866 4,886 5,468 6,369 a. For a graphic presentation of the data in this table, see Figure 1, following p. 12. b. C. d. Data are taken from Table 6, p. 17, below. e. Data are. taken from Table 5, p. 16, below. f. Aggregate of data contained in source ~/. g. Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. h. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79R01141A000800080002-2 WEIGHT OF EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM FROM THE SOVIET BLOC TO THE FREE WORLD By Country of Origin, 1950-56 Other' Hungary East Germany Rumania U.S.S.R. Includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. Bl -` 69 . 1950 386 1951 1866 a~7a~ 7 V29 ;5\8 \I \. 1953 1954 5468 i3 F21-- Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sum of rounded components shown. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Value of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Country of Origin 1950-56 Origin 1950 J 1951 J 1952 J 1953 J 1224.1 1955 J 122L J USSR 2.5 2.3 5.2 12.0 55.8 60.7 92.6 Rumania 2.6 7.5 13.1 22.4 41.8 45.3 38.6 East Germany 2.0 0.3 1.3 3.7 8.2 4.4 5.6 Hungary 0.3 Negligible 0 0 0.2 1.9 1.5 Other d Negligible Negligible 0 0 0.3 1.4 3.0 Total e/ 7-3 Average (us $ per ton) J 30.67 19.16 21.28 20.42 21.76 20.79 22.18 a. . For a graphic presentation of the data in this table, see Figure 2, following p. 14. b. Data are taken from Table 8, p. 19, below. c. Data are taken from Table 7, p. 18, below. d. Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. e. Totals and averages are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums and averages of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Type of Product a/ 1950-56 Product l o b 1951 b 12a .J 1953 Y 1954 1 1 d 1956 e Crude oil -0 29 Gasoline 134 114 Kerosine 14 15 Gas oil 71 9 Residual fuel oil 6 348 Lubricants 13 7 184 152 418 923 1,383 238 262 . 705 721 706 12 76 350 437 694 73 430 1,146 917 1,404 411 943 2,239 2,436 2,170 2 3 27 33 13 a. For a graphic presentation of the data in this table, see Figure 3, fol- lowing p. 14. b. 6J . Data on exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria are excluded., c. :7/. Data on exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria are excluded. d. Data are taken from Table 6, p. 17, below. e. Data are taken from Table 5, p. 16, below. f. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 SECRET VALUE OF EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM FROM THE SOVIET BLOC TO THE FREE WORLD By Country of Origin, 1950-56 ' Includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sum of rounded components shown. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79R01141A000800080002-2 WEIGHT OF EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM FROM THE SOVIET BLOC TO THE FREE WORLD By Type of Product, 1950-56 1955 Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sum of rounded components shown. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79R01141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 4 Percentage Distribution of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Type of Product ra 1950-56 Product 1950) 1951 J 1952 12/ 1953 V 1954 , 12a 1956 Crude oil 0 6 20 8 8 17 22 Gasoline 56 22 26 14 14 13 11 Kerosine 6 3 1 4 7 8 u Gas oil 30 2 8 23 23 17 22 Residual fuel oil 3 67 45 51 46 45 34 Lubricants 5 1 Negligible Negligible 1 1 Negligible a. Data are derived from Table 3, p. 14, above. b. Data on exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria are excluded. c. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 5 - Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Type of Product and by Country of Origin a/ 1956 East Product USSR J Rumania 1 Germany V Hungary / Other J Total Crude oil 1,345 28 0 0 10 1,383 Gasoline 428 162 79 0 37 706 Kerosine 211 483 0 0 0 694 Gas oil 1,036 269 99 0 0 1,404 Residual fuel oil 1,262 688 6 105 108 2,170 Lubricants 13 0 0 0 0 13 Total / 4,295 1,630 184 L~ 155 6,369 _ a. For a graphic presentation of the data in this table, see Figure , follow- ing p. 18. For methodology1 see Appendix B. b. Except for 49,000 tons (see Appendix B), the figures are aggregates of data contained in source c. Except for 10,000 tons see appendix , the figures are aggregates of shipping data. J d. The figures for gasoline and gas oil are taken from source l0 . For the remaining exports, see Appendix B. e. Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. f. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Type of Product and by Country of Origin a/ 1955 - East Product USSR J " Rumania J/ Germany Hungary Other J Total J Crude oil 915 8 0 0 0 923 Gasoline 255 390 71 Negligible 5 721 Kerosine 103 334 0 0 0 437 Gas oil 562 291 64 0 Negligible 917 Residual fuel oi]. 1,208 989 16 137 86 2,436 Lubricants 31 0 0 1 1 33 Total j 074 3 2,013 i5 1 137 Q? 4Lb8 , - - a. For a graphic presentation of the data in this table, see Figure 4, following p. 18. For methodology , see Appendix B. Appendix B), the figures are aggregates of b. Except for 12,300 tons 11 p(see '~ shipping data contained in source l c. The figures '~' ~are aggregates of reported shipping data, u except for 50,300 tons. J d. The figures are aggregates of data contained in source L5J. e. Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. The figures are aggregates of data contained in source L6/- f. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. - 17 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 7 Value of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Type of Product and by Country of Origin a/ 1956 Product USSR Rumania East Germany Hungary Other J Total 2/ Crude oil 23.1 0.5 0 0 0.2 23.8 Gasoline 14.6 5.5 2.7 0 1.3 24.1 Kerosine 6.6 15.0 0 0 0 21.6 Gas oil 29.8 7.7 2.8 0 0 40.3 Residual fuel oil 18.0 9.8 0.1 1.5 1.5 30.9 Lubricants 0.6 0 0 0 0 o.6 a. For methodology, see Appendix B. b. Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. c. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 WEIGHT OF EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM FROM THE SOVIET BLOC TO THE FREE WORLD By Type of Product, and by Country of Origin, 1955 and 1956 USSR Total-4295 1956 EXPORTS (Thousands of Metric Tons) RUMANIA Total -1630 C Crude Oil 0 Gas Oil C Gasoline E Residual Fuel Oil O Kerosine O Lubricants USSR Total-3074 1955 EXPORTS (Thousands of Metric Tons) RUMANIA Total-2013 Totals are de,hed From unrounded hgmes and do noe o(..an agree ..Bh A. sam o1 rounded componana sho..n. OTHER" Total-444 OTHER* Total-379 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 8 Value of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Type of Product and by Country of Origin a/ 1955 Product USSR Rumania East Germany Hungary Other Total J Crude oil. 15.4 0.1 0 0 0 15.5 Gasoline 8.7 13.4 2.4 Negligible 0.2 24.7 -Kerosine 3.1 10.2 0 0 0 13.3 Gas oil 15.8 .8.2 1.8 0 Negligible 25.7 Residual fuel oil 16.4 13.4 0.2 1.8 1.2 33.1 Lubricants 1.3 0 0 Negligible Negligible 1.4 Total J 60-7 45-3 a. For methodology, see Appendix B. b. Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. c. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. -19- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the USSR to the Free World by Type of Product 1950-56 Product 1950 , 1951 a 1952 a. !M 9 / 1954 of 122L b 1956 c Crude oil 0 29 184 - - 142 418 915 1,345 Gasoline 53 13 8 65 197 255 428 Kerosine 7 7 9 3 169 103 211 'Gas oil 4 0 35 212 744 562 1,036 Residual fuel oil 0 74 31 92 1,094 1,208 1,262 Lubricants 5 5 2 3 25 31 13 Total J 62. 128 262 518 2,647 3,074 4,295 a. b. Data are taken from Table 6, p. 17, above. c. Data are taken from Table 5, p. 16, above. d. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 10 Weight of Exports of Petroleum from Rumania to the Free World by Type of Product 1950-56 Product 1950 a 122L1 !22L9-/ 1953 J 1954 J 1955 J 1 6 0 Crude oil 0 0 0 10 0 8 28 Gasoline 42 95 207 151 395 390 162 Kerosine 7 8 4 73 .180 334 483 Gas oil 32 6 23 143 241 291 269 Residual fuel oil Negligible 274 380 851 1,133 . 989 688 Lubricants Negligible 2 0 0 0 0 0 Total /. 81 386 614 1,229 1,951 2,013 1,630 a. 1_T- b. Data are taken from Table 6, p. 17, above. c. Data are taken from Table 5, p. 16, above. d. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Weight of Exports of Petroleum from East Germany to the Free World by Type of Product 1950-56 Product 1950 J l 221 J 122L J J !M -J J 1954 1 122L 1956 J . Crude oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gasoline 34 6 23 45 113 71 79 Kerosine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas oil 34 2 15 74 152 64 99 Residual fuel oil 0 0 0 0 0 16 6 Lubricants 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total e/ 75 38 119 265 184 a. L91. b. 20 c. Data are taken from Table 6, p. 17, above. d. Data are taken from Table 5, p. 16, above. e. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 12 Weight of Exports of Petroleum from Hungary to the Free World by Type of Product 1950-56 Product 1950 _l 1951 J 12,r2 J 1953 J 1954 J 1955 J 122LJ Crude oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gasoline 4 Negligible 0 0 0 Negligible 0 Kerosine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas oil Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 0 Residual fuel oil 6 0 0 0 12 137 105 Lubricants Negligible Negligible 0 0 2 1 0 Total 2 i Negligible 0 0 14 1La a. 21 b. c. Data are taken from Table 6, p. 17, above. d. Data are taken from Table 5, p. 16, above. e. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. - 23 -. S -E-C -R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Weight of Exports of Petroleum from Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland to the Free World, by Type of Product 1950-56 Product 1950 J 1951 J 1952 J 1 3 91 1954 J 1955 J 1956 J Crude oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Gasoline 1 Negligible 0 0 0 5 37 Kerosine Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas oil 0 0 0 0 9 Negligible 0 Residual fuel oil 0 0 0 0 0 86 108 Lubricants Negligible 0 0 0 0 1 0 a. 2 b c. Data are taken from Table 6, p. 17, above. d. Data are taken from Table 5, p. 16, above. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Country of Destination a/* 1955 and 1956 Austria 149 65 Belgium-Luxembourg J 209 252 Finland 991 1,212 France 147 178 Greece 200 238 Iceland 274 257 Italy 347 655 Netherlands J 172 269 Norway 35 90 Sweden 836 774 Switzerland 33 21 UK 19 18 West Germany 164 323 Yugoslavia 258 347 Afghanistan 12 20 Egypt 464 1,181 Israel 451 338 Syria 0 22 Total J Other Algeria 45 110 Argentina 658 0 India 3 0 Total J 306 110 Grand total J 5,168 6,369 * Footnotes for Table 14 follow on p. 26. - 25 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World by Country of Destination a/ 1955 and 1956 (Continued) a. The figures shown are estimates of the amount of petroleum that left the Soviet Bloc in 1955 and 1956 and were compiled from the same data on shipping used as sources for Tables 5 and 6, pp. 16 and 17, respectively, above. Differences may exist between the quantities shown in this table and the statistics reported by the importing coun- tries because the interval of time between the date of shipping and the date of receipt in the importing countries may be as much as 3 weeks and also because the countries shown in this table are the original destinations reported at the Bosporus and are not necessarily the ultimate recipients. For example, it is known that most or all of the petroleum reported as destined for the Netherlands and Belgium is subsequently transshipped to France, West Germany, and Probably Switzer- land; but complete data on transshipment are not available. b. Most or all of these cargoes were transshipped to France, West Germany, and Switzerland. c. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sums of the rounded components. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Imports of Petroleum by the Free World from the Soviet Bloc as a Percentage of Domestic Consumption a 1955 and 1956 Afghanistan 70 95 Egypt 9 24 Finland 84 93 Greece 13 15 Iceland 98 84 Israel 30 21 Yugoslavia 27 33 Western European countries J 2 3 Other J ` 4 6 All Free World 5 6 a. For methodology, see Appendix B. b. Austria, Belgium-Luxembourg, France, Italy, the Nether- lands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and West Germany. c. Algeria, Argentina (1955 only), India (1955 only), and Syria (1956 only). Weight of Exports of Petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Free World, by Principal Means of Transport a/ 1954-56 Thousand Metric Tons Means of Transport 1954 J 122L J 122L 2t Free World tanker 4,369 4,878 4,788 Soviet tanker 130 134 1,097 Rail 299 198 300 Danube River 28 172 100 Other 60 86 84 Total 4,886 5,468 6,369 a. For a graphic presentation of the data in this table, see Figure 5, following p. 28. b. ?51 c. For methodology, see Appendix B. -27- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Weight of Imports of Petroleum by the Soviet Bloc from Austria a/ 1955 and 1956 1955 J 1956 c/ Crude oil 1,123 1,375 Gasoline 124 10 Kerosine 31 0 Gas oil 110 90 Residual fuel oil 0 0 Lubricants 2 0 a. The only other known imports from the Free World in either year consisted of 3,000 tons of gas oil and 32,000 tons of resid- ual fuel oil received from West Germany in 1955. (For methodology, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 WEIGHT OF EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM FROM THE SOVIET BLOC TO THE FREE WORLD By Principal Means of Transport, 1954-56 Soviet Tanker-2.7% 130 1954 Total-4886 Soviet Tanker- 2.5% 134 1955 Total-5468 Free World Tanker 74.9% 4788 1956 Total - 6402 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 S-E-C-R-E-T APPENDIX B METHODOLOGY a. Estimates of the exports of petroleum from the USSR and Rumania to the Free World in 1956 were developed from the following: (2) Estimates of shipments not hauled by tanker, which were derived as follows: Afghanistan contracted for the following imports from the USSR for the Afghan year 1335 (21 March 1956-20 March 1957)': vehicle gasoline, 14,000 tons; aviation gasoline, 150,000 gallons; diesel oil, 274,000 gallons; mazut, 822,000 gallons; lubricants, 139,200 gallons. ?J/ It was assumed that these amounts were equivalent to the Soviet exports for the calendar, year 1956. Aviation gasoline 150000 gallons = 401 tons 374 gallons per ton Diesel oil 274,000 gallons = 875 tons 313 gallons per ton Mazut 822,000 gallons = 936 tons 2 2 0 gallons per ton , Lubricants 139,200 gallons _ 473 tons 29 gallons per ton Total (rounded) Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 The calculated tonnage, rounded to the nearest hundred, was added to the 14,000 tons of vehicle gasoline, resulting in a total of 18,700 tons. The exports were carried by rail to the Soviet-Afghan border. (c) Rumanian Exports to Austria. No fuel oil was exported to Austria by Rumania before October 1956. 30After the resumption of Danube River traffic fol- lowing the revolution in Hungary, about 10,000 tons of fuel oil was exported by Rumania to Austria. 31 b. Exports from the other European Satellites in 1956 were esti- mated as follows: (1) East German Exports to Switzerland. In January and February 1956, shipments of residual fuel oil by rail to Switzerland totaled 6,224 tons. 32 There are no reports * The figure for 7 months divided by 7. The monthly average multiplied by 12. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 of additional exports during the remainder of 1956, and this quantity is considered to represent the total for the year. (2) Hungarian Exports. (a) To Austria. Hungarian exports to Austria are the aggregate of shipments up the Danube River through August 1956. 33/. Austria was advised that no deliveries of fuel oil from Hungary could be expected after 1 September 1956. It is assumed, therefore, that the aggregate of 55,000 tons exported in the first 8 months constituted the total for 1956. (b) To West Germany. Hungarian shipments of residual fuel oil up the Danube River to West Germany in 82 days of 1956 totaled 11,810 tons, / an average of 144 tons per day. Because no further exports were to be made to Austria after 1 September 1956, it is assumed that none were made to West Germany after that date. It is therefore estimated that exports to West Germany in 1956 amounted to 144 tons of residual fuel oil per day for 244 days, a total of 35,136 tons. Hungarian exports of residual fuel oil to Switzerland Switzerland during the first 11 months of 1956 totaled 15,000 tons, / which were carried by rail. It was assumed that no additional shipments were made in December. (3) Bulgarian Exports to West Germany, Italy, and Greece. During the first 10 months of 1956, Bulgaria exported 8,000 tons of crude oil to West Germany, 5,000 tons of residual fuel oil to Italy, and 3,000 tons of residual fuel oil to Greece, all by tanker out of the Black Sea. These quantities were expanded to give the following estimates for 1956: 10,000 tons of crude oil to West Germany, 6,000 tons of residual fuel oil to Italy, and 4,000 tons of residual fuel oil to Greece. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 (4) Czechoslovak Exports to West Germany. West Germany imported 2,331 tons of gasoline from Czecho- slovakia and 920 tons from Rumania in the first quarter of 1956 38 and 22,548 tons from both countries in the second quarter of that year. 39 On the assumption that in the second quarter, as in the first, 71.7 percent of the gasoline originated in Czechoslovakia, it was estimated that West Germany imported 18,498 tons of gasoline from Czechoslovakia in the first half of 1956, or 37,000 tons dur- ing the entire year. Czechoslovak exports of gasoline to West Germany were carried by rail, and those from Rumania were shipped by tanker. (5) Polish Exports. (a) To West Germany. In 1955, West Germany received 5,877 tons of residual fuel oil and 346 tons of bitumen from Poland. ~JO Residual fuel oil thus constituted 94.4 percent of the petroleum products exported by Poland to West Germany. In the first 8 months of 1956, Poland ex- ported 10,390 tons of petroleum products to West Germany. 41 By assuming the same product mix in 1956 as in 1955 and by expanding the figure to an annual basis, exports of residual fuel oil to West Germany in 1956 were estimated at 14,700 tons, presumably carried by rail. (b) To Sweden. In 1955, Poland exported to Sweden nearly 80,000 tons of residual fuel oil, valued at 7.6 million Swedish crowns.* 42 ShipmentsI1 'during the first 8 months of 1956 were valued at 5.3 million crowns. J At the unit value prevailing in 1955, 95 crowns per ton, Swedish imports of Polish residual fuel oil in the first 8 months of 1956 amounted to 55,689 tons. This figure was expanded to 12 months, resulting in an estimate of 83,684 tons for 1956. Polish exports to Sweden were shipped by small tanker across the Baltic. * The official rate of exchange in 1955, 5.18 Swedish crowns to US $1, is not necessarily an accurate reflection of the dollar value. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 2. Table 6.* a. Soviet Exports to Afghanistan. In the Afghan year 1334 (21 March 1955-20 March 1956), the USSR exported to Afghanistan 11,752 tons of gasoline, 100 tons of mazut, and 436 tons of lubricants. 44 It was assumed that these amounts, totaling 12,288 tons, were equivalent to the exports to Afghanistan for the calendar year 1955. b. East German Exports. (1) To West Germany. East German exports to West Germany in 1955 amounted to 54,612 tons of gasoline, 59,321 tons of diesel fuel, and 10,156 tons of residual fuel oil. / (2) To Sweden. The diesel fuel exported by East Germany to Sweden was valued at 158.6 Swedish crowns per ton. 46 Total East German ex- ports ports of diesel fuel to Sweden in 1955 were valued at $142,000. ~ At the official rate of exchange, East German exports to Sweden in 1955 had a value of 735,751 crowns. By dividing 735,751 crowns by the value of 158.6 crowns per ton, an estimate of 4,639 tons of diesel fuel was derived. (3) To Switzerland. In 1955, East Germany exported 6,581 tons of gasoline and 6,049 tons of fuel oil to Switzerland. 48 1 3. Tables 7 and 8.-(- Some scattered information is available on actual prices paid by the Free World for petroleum from the Soviet Bloc; but for pur- poses of comparison and uniformity, it was believed better to use average world prices. Prices for 1955 and 1956 were calculated on the basis of prices per US barrel and US gallon. / The prices per barrel and gallon were converted to prices per ton by means of the following conversion factors LJ : * P. 17, above. ** Pp. 18 and 19, above. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Item Barrels per Metric Ton Gallons per Metric Ton Crude oil 7.3 307 Motor gasoline 8.5 357 Kerosine 7.75 325 Gas oil 7.46 313 Residual fuel oil 6.66 280 Lubricants 7.0 294 On the basis of these figures the prices, in US dollars per ton, were as follows: Item 1955 1956 Crude oil 16.785 17.166 Motor gasoline 34.303 34.169 Kerosine 30.452 31.157 Gas oil 28.070 28.718 Residual fuel oil 13.576 14.239 Lubricants 41.542 48.321 4. Table 15.* The figures in this table were calculated by determining the per- centage of total consumption represented by imports from the Soviet Bloc. Before this comparison could be made, the tonnage of crude oil exported to the Free World from the Bloc was reduced to the equivalent tonnage of products on the basis of a yield of 91 percent from the crude oil. Figures for consumption in 1955 were taken from source 51/ except for the figure for Austria. S2/ The consumption of petroleum in Western Europe i`n~~ 1956 was esti- mated to have been 9 percent greater than in 1955, 24/ and a similar increase may have taken place in the non-European countries receiving petroleum from the Soviet Bloc. Therefore, with two exceptions, the estimate of consumption in 1956 was obtained by increasing the esti- mates of consumption in 1955 by 9 percent. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 The two exceptions to.this procedure were Syria, which is esti- mated to have consumed 700,000 tons in 1956, 22/ and Egypt. Total domestic sales in Egypt were estimated in terms of barrels of 42 US gallons for the first half of 1956. 56 These estimates were converted to tons by using the factors shown in 3, above, and mul- tiplied by 2 to derive the estimate of total consumption in 1956. In October and November 1955, West Germany issued export licenses for the shipment of 6,700 tons of diesel `fuel oil and 212,230 tons of residual fuel oil to Poland in 1955. 1-U Export licenses covering 4,000 tons of diesel fuel and 180,000 tons of residual fuel were re- turned and cancelled. / It was assumed, therefore, that the re- maining export licenses were used and that 2,700 tons of diesel fuel and 32,230 tons of residual fuel were exported by West Germany to Poland in 1955. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/31 : CIA-R DP79RO1141A000800080002-2