THE ISLAMIC SUMMIT: A PREVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00114R000600760001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 14, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 21, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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(- 25X1
SUBJECT: The Islamic Summit: A Preview
NESA M 87-20010
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(21Jan87)
DATE T/G
DOC NO XIC,5 I Al /oooO
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Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
21 January 1987
The Islamic Summit: A Preview
Spmmary
Sharp disagreements over important issues on the agenda make
it unlikely the fifth summit of the Organization of Islamic
Conference (OIC) will,take any decisive actions. In the face of
Iran's current military offensive and efforts to delay the
summit, a solution to the Gulf War is not likely. The summit
will reaffirm support for an international conference to deal
with the Arab-Israeli conflict but is unlikely to make progress
toward convening one. The resolution on Afghanistan probably
will avoid direct condemnation of the Soviets, reflecting
Pakistan's preference not to jeopardize prospects for a peace
settlement with Moscow. Kuwaiti hopes of hosting an Arab League
summit on the heels of the OIC meeting are unlikely to
materialize, although consensus might be reached on the date and
a
enda f
f
g
or a
uture League summit in Riyadh.
Washington will receive considerable criticism in the OIC
summit's communique, a reflection mainly of Arab frustration over
US support for Israel and recent revelations of US arms sales to
Iran. Moscow probably will be treated less harshly. The Arab
press has already given prominent, favorable attention to
well-timed Soviet statements calling for an international peace
conference on the Middle East and supporting Iraqi calls for a
negotiated
t
1e__
_
_
se
t
n
f t
This memorandum was prepared by Office of Near
Eastern and South Asian Analysis. In orma on as of 21 January 1987 was
used in its pre
aration
Q
p
.
uestions and comments should be addressed to
Chief. Issues and A
, i
Et
T, __J
pp
ca
ons
NESA M 87-20010
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Most of the member nations of the the Islamic Conference plan to send
delegations to the summit, which is to open 26 January in Kuwait (See Annex
A). Since its creation in 1969, the OIC has provided a forum not only to
foster Islamic solidarity and the rights of Muslim minorities but also to
address intra-Muslim.disputes. Conflicting interests have weakened many
OIC resolutions and impeded forceful political and economic action. In
addition, the organization is experiencing a severe funding crisis which
could limit the scope of its activities (See Annex B). Nonetheless, the
OIC offers Muslim leaders a neutral ground for testing major political
initiatives and a safe forum to register discontent with superpower
OIC foreign ministers plan this week to complete an agenda that we
believe will give priority to the Iran-Iraq war, the Arab-Israeli conflict
and Palestinian problem, and the war in Afghanistan. The stress on Middle
Eastern issues is likely to fuel criticism from the more numerous African
and Asian members of the OIC, who believe the organization gives
insufficient attention to their concerns.
fi
Kuwait has instituted tight security measures in response to several
terrorist threats. Tehran has made a series of veiled threats to the
Kuwaitis
Several Arab terrorist groups
also have threatened attacks at the summit (See Annex C).
Prospective Developments on Priority Issues
The Iran-Iraq War. The OIC Peace Committee will be unable to find a
formula to settle the war that would satisfy both sides. Iraqi
disillusionment with the lack of progress by the Peace Committee could lead
Baghdad to demand the Committee be disbanded or reconstituted.*
Iranian Foreign Minister Velayati's recent announcement that Tehran will
not attend the summit makes the prospects for negotiating a ceasefire and
facilitating dialogue even more remote. Iranian efforts to seek a
postponement and a new venue for the summit probably reflect concern for
loss of face over military setbacks in December and anger over continuing
Kuwaiti logistic and economic support to Iraq. Tehran may also fear
embarrassment over revelations about its dealings with Israel.
We expect the Saudis, who have made tentative steps to balance their
relations with Iraq and Iran, probably will try to insure that the OIC
resolution on the Gulf War is equitable. The summit resolution probably
*The OIC Peace Committee was formed in 1981 to try to mediate an end
to the war. Its members are Gambia, Guinea, Senegal, the Palestine
Liberation Organization, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan, Turkey, and the
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OIC SUMMIT AGENDA
IRAN-IRAQ
weapons.
OIC Peace Committee almost certainly will be unable to find
a formula to satisfy both sides ... Iran plans to boycott
summit ... OIC resolution probably will call for a ceasefire
and appeal to both sides to observe international agreements
!on treatment of prisoners of war and non-use of chemical
AFGHANISTAN
THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT
AND PALESTINIAN PROBLEM
The OIC will reaffirm commitment
to an international peace conference
,with full PLO participation ..
;condemnation of Israeli and US policies
can be expected.
I TERRORISM
Pakistan is unlikely to push for direct
condemnation of the Soviets ... Afghan
Mujahadeen representatives will attend
as observers and plan to address summit.
Suggested by Kuwait ... a compromise resolution probably Will be
adopted that will condemn all types of terrorism out
acknowledge the legitimacy of popular liberation struggles.
US AIRSTRIKES AGAINST LIBYA
Libya wants the OIC to declare US airetrikes a terrorist act .
some sort of anti-US resolution is possible.
ISLAMIC COURT OF JUSTICE
Proposal to establish an Islamic Court is likely to pass
but will take at least two or three years to ratify ...
Court will focus on reconciling intra-Muslim disputes
through Islamic precepts.
ALSO INCLUDED.
The Israeli nuclear threat
Muslim minorities in Bulgaria and the Philippines
Refugees
Apartheid in South Africa
Namibian independence
Economic, scientific, and technical agreements
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will resemble past ones, calling for a ceasefire while appealing to both
sides to observe international agreements on the treatment of prisoners of
war and non-use of chemical weapons.
The Kuwaitis believe that Iraqi President Saddam Husayn will lead his
delegation to the summit, according to the US Embassy in Kuwait. The
Iraqis could reap a propaganda victory over Iran if, as is likely, they
focus on Iranian hypocrisy in dealing covertly with Israel and the United
States. Iraqi news media have been pressing this point for weeks.
Arab-Israeli Conflict and Palestinians. As in the past, the OIC
probably will adopt resolutions reaffirming the commitment of Muslim
countries to the liberation of occupied Arab territories, including
Jerusalem. The summit will continue;-to endorse the Fez Peace Plan proposed
by the Arab League in 1982 and again call for a UN-sponsored peace
conference on the Middle East that would ensure full participation for the
PLO. OIC Secretary General Pirzada told the Kuwaiti press late last year
that he
make a strong ap*eal for holding such a conference in 1987.
wi~
Standard resolutions condemning Israeli and US policies in the Middle
East can be expected. Syria will press for condemnation of the US-Israeli
strategic alliance and Israel's decision to annex the Golan Heights.
Strong criticism of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and
violations of Islamic holy places in Jerusalem will probably emanate from
the special report being presented by the OIC committee on Jerusalem.
Although Syria will be in the majority on these traditional
Arab-Israeli issues, we believe that its support for Lebanese Shia militias
in the "camps war" against Palestinians, as well as its widely publicized
connections to terrorists, have furthered Damascus' isolation and weakened
its bargaining position at the summit. As a result, we expect the PLO and
moderate Arab states will be able to derail any Syrian challenge to Egypt's
OIC membership and to ward off any Syrian calls for sanctions against
Morocco for King Hassan's meeting with then Israeli Prime Minister Peres
last July.
Afghanistan. We believe the summit will follow the standard OIC line
by stressing deep concern over military intervention in Afghanistan but
without condemning Moscow directly. Pakistan, the member with the most
influence over OIC policy toward Afghanistan, is unlikely to push for
stronger anti-Soviet language. Islamabad's position has been that a more
explicit condemnation, similar to the resolution the OIC passed in 1980,
would jeopardize chances for a political settlement and that a more
strongly worded resolution would not pass in any case. We expect recent
peace overtures by Kabul and Moscow to the Afghan resistance and
UN-mediated peace talks scheduled for Geneva next month will give Pakistan
an additional incentive to take a moderate line at the summit.
Saudi Arabia, another strong supporter of the Afghan resistance,
probably will take an approach similar to Pakistan's. Saudi intelligence
chief Turki al-Faisal recently told visiting US officials that Afghan
resistance leaders had not even asked for stronger language in the
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prospective OIC resolution. Nonetheless, representatives of the resistance
will attend the summit as guests of the Secretary General and will address
th t'
e
mee ing, according to the US Consulate in Jeddah.
The OIC suspended Afghanistan's membership in 1980. The US Embassy
in Kuwait reports there is no current push by OIC members to let
representatives of the Afghan resistance fill this seat.
Other Topics
International Terrorism. A Kuwaiti initiative to place international
terrorism on the agenda will, in our opinion, result in a compromise
resolution that strongly condemns violent acts such as plane hijackings but
acknowledges the legitimacy of popular liberation struggles. A well-placed
source of the US Embassy in Kuwait reports that such a compromise
resolution is being circulated in draft to OIC members. Syria probably
will attempt to deflect Western criticism of its links to terrorism by
pressing for OIC support for-~a UN-sppnsored international conference that
would define terrorism and make distinctions between terrorists and freedom
fighters.
US Airstrike Against Libya. A well-placed source of the US Embassy in
Kuwait says that the Libyans want the OIC to declare the US airstrike
against Libya last April a terrorist act. We believe that Tripoli and its
Syrian and Iranian allies are less well positioned than they were last year
when they pressured the OIC to condemn US sanctions against Libya. Libyan
activities in Chad have alienated many African and Arab member states,
although Tripoli may be able to rally enough support for some sort of
anti-US resolution in light of the fallout over US arms sales to Iran.
Tripoli probably will send a delegation to lobby for a resolution, but
Qadhafi -- who has called the summit "reactionary" and is unwilling to face
dire
t
i
c
cr
ticism over Chad -- probably will not come.
Islamic Court of Justice. The OIC summit is likely to approve a
proposal to establish an Islamic Court of Justice. Secretary General
Pirzada, who strongly supports the measure, has told US officials in Jeddah
that the Islamic Court would focus on disputes between Muslim nations and
would apply Islamic precepts to reconcile differences. He said that both
Iran and Iraq support formation of a Court and asserted that such a
tribunal, had it existed earlier, might have played a role in ending the
Gulf War. OIC sources of the US Consulate in Jeddah believe that at least
two or three years will elapse after summit approval of the Court proposal
before ratificati
b
on
y member states.
An Arab League Summit?
We believe that the Kuwaitis have slim prospects for hosting an Arab
League summit on the heels of the OIC meeting. They probably will,
however, be able to arrange a series of bilateral meetings with visiting
Arab leaders that might help reach a consensus for the date and agenda for
an Arab Lea
ue
it
g
summ
in the near future.
A regular Arab League summit is overdue; the last one took place at
Fez in 1982, when Riyadh was officially chosen as the venue for the next
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one. The US Embassy in Tunis reports there is widespread Arab agreement on
the need for a summit in the face of intensified intra-Arab disputes and
regional problems. A reliable source of the US Embassy in Riyadh reports
that a summit is now possible because Syrian President Assad has agreed to
attend and Tunisia is willing to host the.,meeting if the Saudis are
unwilling.
Implications for the United States
. The OIC is almost certain to take its usual tough stand against US
Middle East policies in its final communique. US friends and allies,
particularly moderate Arabs, probably will acquiesce to anti-US language as
a demonstration of their frustration with consistent US support to Israel
and the revelations of US arms sales:to Iran. Meanwhile,' Baghdad may
repeat the allegation, recently voiced by Deputy Prime Minister Ramadan in
the US press, that Washin aulty intelligence to Iraq in order to
prolong the Gulf War.
In contrast, we expect the Soviets will fare reasonably well at the
summit, taking advantage of US vulnerabilities over the Iran arms sales
controversy. Moscow's recent official statements that called for an
international peace conference on the Arab-Israeli conflict and backed
Baghdad's call for a negotiated settlement of the Gulf War were well-timed
to influence OIC members and cap a Soviet effort to woo the Muslim world
that began in early 1986. The Arab press has given prominent, favorable
attention to Soviet statements on the peace process while Assistant
Secretary of State Murphy's recent round of talks has drawn few positive
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Membership of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC)
Algeria
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Benin
Brunei
Burkina Faso (formerly
Upper Volta)
Cameroon
Chad
Comoros
Djibouti
Egypt
Gabon
The Gambia
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Mauritania
Morocco
Niger
Oman
Pakistan
Palestine Liberation Organization
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
Yemen Arab Republic
Yemen, People's Democratic
Republic of
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The OIC Faces Financial Squeeze
Secretary General Pirzada will press delinquent members to pay their
contributions during the summit. Arrears now total almost $20 million.
only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia
and
,
Bahrain have paid their contributions for the current budget year
which
,
began in July 1986. The OIC owes over $3 million for housing, medical
bills, maintenance charges, and travel expenses. It probably will not have
enough money for the remainder of the fiscal year to meet staff salaries
and expenses unless members pay their fees.
The continuing soft world oil market and depressed oil prices will
work against any substantial.-increase in funding for OIC subsidiaries
during the year. The Islamic Development Bank (IDB), the OIC's most
important financial organization, faces hard times. Several countries,
including Libya and Syria, are not honoring their commitments. The IDB
needs to replenish its capital base to be able to maintain recent levels of
trade and project financing, but the IDB's prospects for raising new funds
are uncertain because contributors have their own revenue shortfalls. If
the IDB reduces its lending operations, poorer members such as Oman and
Bangladesh may be forced to turn to the United States or other Western
donors to help make up the shortfall.
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Kuwaiti Security Concerns for the Summit
Kuwait has been the target of terrorist attacks since late 1983 (See
chart). At least three groups are reportedly planning terrorist operations
to disrupt the summit. The Abu Nidal group, which oses the most serious
threat
'The -
as well-positioned as Abu Nidal, has threatenedatoalauncheanIattack ifhad,
Kuwait goes ahead with the summit. The Popular Struggle Front has never
conducted operations outside Lebanon
Concern for the safety of summit attendees has spurred Kuwait to
undertake a number of measures to strengthen its counterterrorism
capabilities. They have included:
--The establishment of a National Guard bomb disposal squad.
--The purchase of new security equipment, including x-ray
devices, metal and explosive detectors, and new armored
personnel carriers.
--A restriction since last November on visas issued to
foreigners, particularly Palestinians, as part of an effort to
keep out potential subversives.
--Upgraded airport security procedures, including temporarily
removin Shi
a security personnel from airport posts.
--Selection of Special Army personnel over the less competent
National Guard and police to provide security inside the
Nonetheless, we believe the intensive counterterrorist procedures
Kuwaiti security officials have set in place for the summit will be
inadequate to stop a determined terrorist or a random attack.
services almost certainly will send their best protectiverforcesutotguard
their leaders..
Given these security measures, we believe terrorist groups may resort
to attacks on soft targets such as local restaurants or oil facilities.
The principal goals of such attacks would be to create tensions at the
summit and embarrass the Kuwaiti Government for its hardline policy toward
terrorists. Western missions and facilities, including those of the United
States, may also be at risk, although we have no information that terrorist
to . h
groups are plannin
th___ ..
g
ack
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SELECTED TERRORIST INCIDENTS AGAINST KUWAIT
EVENT COMMENT
0
Bombing of US/
French Embassies and
Kuwaiti installations.
Seventeen supporters of Dawa Party convicted
still in Kuwaiti jails,
F Failed attempt by Dawa.-sympathizers to get Dawa
NO- 4 prisoners released.
Hijacking-of Kuwaiti -7
airliner to Iran; two
US AID officials murdered. 11
23 APRIL 85 I Prominent Kuwaiti
journalist shot
Assasination attempt
anAmir by Suicide
car bomber,
Five
convicted; one sentenced to life.
.?.. i
27 MAY 85. Firebombing of power
I station.
V
M%0;+ KAAA411WUT
Kuwaiti police official.
Ii JULY 65 I Two outdoor cafes AJL~ bombed; 10 killed.
Three explosions at
oil facilities caused
extensive damage.
Im-
Shins arres e
Arab devolutionary Brigades (an Abu Nidal
alias) takes credit,
LiiiEoEEbEEaEEfi
three Iraqi I 25X1
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SUBJECT: The Islamic Summit: A Preview
NESA M
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