WEEKLY REPORT

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CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2
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RIPPUB
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T
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24
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December 27, 2016
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May 11, 2010
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34
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Publication Date: 
July 25, 1975
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 Weekly Review Top Secret Top Secret July 25, 1975 Copy N2 661 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 !EDeclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 The WEEKLY REVIEW, Issued ev3ry Friday morning by the Office of Current Intelligence, reports and analyzes significant developments of the week ttirough noon on Thursday. It fre- quently includes material coordinated with or prepared by the Office of Economic Research, the Office of Strategic Research, the Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research, and the Directorate of Science and Technology. Topics requiring more comprehensive treatment and therefore published separately as Special Reports acre listed in the contents. CONTENTS (July 25, 1975) MIDDLE EAST AFRICA India: Parliamentary Approval 4 Angola: New Cease-fire; Soviets 7 Portugal: Goncalves at Issue 8 Italy: Fanfani Falls 9 Spain: New Political Groups 10 CSCE: On to the Summit 10 EC: Leaders Meet 12 MBFR: Dead!ock Continues 13 Multilateral Trade Negotiations WESTERN HEMISPHERE 14 Argentina: More Cabinet Changes 14 Cuba Focuses on the Caribbean 16 Ecuador: Payments Problems 17 Peru: Strikes in Arequipa 17 Brazil: Liberalization Attacked 18 Panama: Options on the Canal EAST ASIA PACIFIC 25X1 25X1 19 Laos: Plodding Forward 20 South Korea: Naval Improvements Comments and queries on the contents of this publication are welcome. They may be Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 u, EGYPT-USSR: BREATHING SPELL The Soviets are probably breathing a little easier after Egyptian President Sadat failed to announce new steps against the USSR in his speech of July 22, but they almost certainly anticipate more troubles. Prior to the speech, Soviet concerns centered on three possibilities: ? Restrictions on Soviet naval use of Egyptian ports would be increased. ? The remaining Soviet military advisers would be expelled. ? Sadat would abrogate the Soviet- Egyptian treaty. A major Pravda article on July 15 summed up the defense of Soviet policy toward Egypt and indirectly accused Sadat of undermining Soviet-Egyptian relations. In an attempt to head off any further moves by Cairo, the Soviets early last week implied they might be more flexible on Egyptian debt payments. Sadat has been demanding that the USSR postpc:ie payments due in 1975 on Cairo's military debt, which is at least $1.5 million. The Egyptian finance min- ister arrived in Moscow on July 22 to discuss the question: according to the Egyptians, he went at the invitation of Moscow. Moscow may also be using its new proposal on the Abu Tartur phosphates project to placate Sadat. The Soviets had refused to provide financing for the port development and railroad construction necessary to develop the deposits, but are now saying they are willing to lend over $500 million at commercial terms. The outcome of the finance minister's visit will provide one clue as to how far the Soviets are prepared to go in order to prevent a further erosion of relations with Cairo. Some conces- sions on economic issues may be in order, but the Soviets are so dissatisfied with Sadat's for- eign and domestic policies that they are unlikely to consider major conciliatory moves such as resumption of substantial shipments of arms. Page 2 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 2F, 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 INDIA: PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL Parliament reconvened this week and the large Congress Party majorities in both houses overwhelmingly approved the month-old state of emergency amid new signs that Prime Minis- ter Gandhi does not intend to allow India's political system to become again as free as it was before her crackdown. The government has taken additional steps to tighten its control over foreign correspondents and to discourage de- fiance of the recent authoritarian move. The parliamentary session-expected to last one to two weeks-is limited to transaction of government business. The agenda includes bills that would approve recent executive ordinances that have curbed civil liberties, granted the gov- ernment powers to confiscate the property of persons evading arrest, and precluded resort to the courts to challenge the state of emergency. In her parliamentary presentation, Gandhi re- fused to speculate on how long the emergency would remain in force. She stated bluntly, how- ever, that under no circumstances would there be a "return to the pre-emergency days of total license and political permissiveness." Opposition members-with the exception of key leaders who were jailed last month- attended the session only long enough to vote against the emergency and to denounce Gandhi's authoritarian moves, including the sus- pension of parliament's normal rules of pro- cedure. There are rumors that Gandhi may ask parliam. A for constitutional amendments that would institutionalize some of the emergency powers she now exercises temporarily. Such a move may be foreshadowed in statements by Indian officials who claim the British parlia- mentary system has not worked well for India. A frequently mentioned alternative is a strcng presidential system like France's. On July 21, the government imposed new censorship rules that could result in the expul- sion of most foreign journalists. While the cen- soring of news before it is transmitted from the country has been dropped, the government now ^ Panes I 1AIPIrW1 V Dc%ll A/ i..i. -sr Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 requires journalists to sign a pledge that they will abide by extremely restrictive press "guide- lines." Forbidden subjects include opposition activities, references to the 6,000-10,000 pris- oners jailed in the past month, and anything that falls within the range of "unauthorized, irresponsible, or demoralizing news items, re- ports, conjectures, or rumors." There are some 50 foreign reporters in India; four, including two Americans, have already been expelled. Public opposition to the emergency pro- visions has been slight. In some areas, under- ground presses are beginning to publish papers and handouts, but with little apparent impact. Various opposition parties reportedly are plan- ning anti-government demonstrations, and there is the possibility of occasionL.l sabotage and other acts of violence. Governments in the states where political opposition is strongest-Gujarat, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu-appear to be avoiding direct confrontations with New Delhi that might give the center a pretext for imposing "Presi- dent's rule"-direct control from New Delhi- over those states. School officials have been ordered to pre- vent anti-government activities by students re- turning from summer vacation. In some univer- sities, student elections have been postponed indefinitely. The government has also delayed, for at least six months, the state elections in Kerala that were due in September. The Con- gress Party lost a state election in Gujarat in June and would have faced a serious challenge in Kerala. The Supreme Court will begin hearing oral arguments against Gandhi's appeal on August 11, but the decision may not be announced until tall. Even if the court rules against her, it seems increasingly likely that the Prime Minister will insist on remaining in office. She could do this legally by amending the election law to change, ex post facto, either the basis for her recent conviction for election violations in 1971, or the penalty-her rPmnyal frnn, office. New Cease-fire After almost two weeks of fighting in Luanda and the couritiyside, the National Front for the Liberation of Angola and the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola agreed this week to another cease-fire. The new agree- ment will probably be no more effective than earlier ones as the two groups struggle to be in control of Angola when it gains independence next November. The Popular Movement now enjoys mili- tary dominance in the capital. The Front has only several hundred troops barricaded in an industrial complex just north of the city. Under the terms of the cease-fire, these troops will be allowed to remain there. The National Front apparently has not abandoned the idea of fighting its way back into the city. A relief force that moved down from the Front's tribal stronghold in the north has skirmished with Popular Movement troops at Caxito, some 40 miles northeast o` Luanda. The Portuguese made only half-hearted at- tempts to stop the latest round of fighting, but apparently have now decided to take a firmer stand, ostensibly to avert further bloodshed. The Portuguese commander in the territory has ordered his troops to establish a defense perimeter around Luanda to protect it if the National Front moves in from Caxito. The Por- tuguese action will in effect help protect the Popular Movement's gains and convince the Na- tional Front that the Portuguese want the Popu- lar Movement to win. Front Regroups The setbacks suffered by the Front prompted its leader, Holden Roberto, to make a quick tour recently of its facilities in northern Angola. His visit-his first inside Angola since the insurgency against the Portuguese broke out more than a decade ago-was obviously designed to boost sagging morale. Roberto is apparently now back in Zaire, but may return to Angola in 25X1 the near future. Page 4 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 95 79; Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 The Front's defeats in recent months have been partly because of its inability to match the arms and equipment being supplied to its ad- versary by the Soviet Union. Belatedly, the Front is now receiving some additional Chinese and other equipment from stocks held by the Zairian army. Peking recently authorized Zair;; to release the equipment. So far, however, Zaire apparently has passed on only modest quantities of small arms and ammunition, and perhaps ;ome transport vehicles. An Open Soviet Role Recent substantial Soviet arms deliveries to the Popular Movement and harsher press treat- ment of the rival National Front indicate that Moscow is playing a more open role in its sup- port of the Popular Movement. Military shipments since May have report- edly included trucks, various armored vehicles, artillery, grenades, machine guns, and small arms. The Soviets are also continuing to train substantial numbers of officers and trcvps of the Popular Movement in the USSR and the Congo. A few Angolans have been sent to F;i,;t German to be trained Moscow and its Eas. European allies are rumored to have made some direct arms ship- ments to the Popular Movement in Angola, but the Congo is the main conduit for Soviet arms. Early this month, Popular Mnvement leader Neto reportedly flew to Brazzaville to urge the Congolese to speed up the flow of Soviet weap- ons. The Congolese had apparently been slowing down shipments because they were uneasy about the possibility of civil war in Angola. The Soviet press has consistently accorded special praise to the Popular Movement, but until recently it avoided direct attacks on the National Front and Angola's smallest group, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola. In the wake of the recent fighting in Luanda, however, the press has charged that the National Front is a client of China and the US, and has labeled it a "reactionary organization" whose members are responsible for Cie death of hundreds of people. 25X1 Moscow probably still has not written off the prospect of a coalition government in An- gola. With the Pupular Movement now having a clear military advantage, however, the Soviets appear to expect that the Movement will have the dominant role following independence. No Solution in Sight The transitional government has virt;!ally ceased to function. The Front has not yet an- nounced a replacement for Johnny Eduardo Pinnock, its chief represent?tive to the transi- tional government, who resigned last week and fled to Zaire. Portuguese officials apparently hope that fighting can be averted long enough to get at least the semblance of a transitional gov- ernment structure functioning again. In the long run, however, this solution i simply a return to a formula that has already proven fn hp ~in Page 5 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Foreign Ministry alleged that it was not any difference of opinion on Gulf security matters, but rather certain intra-Arab problems, such as the dispute between Kuwait and Iraq, that made a summit inappropriate at this time. Riyadh earlier had taken this line. PERSIAN GULF: FAILURE AT JIDDA The foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf states failed to agree on new steps to strengthen cooperation on regional security when they met in Jidda on July 16 during the Islamic confer- ence. The outcome was surely disappointing to ,the Shah of Iran, who has long been pushing for an alliance of Gulf states against outside inter- ference and local threats to the status quo. The Shah had been encouraged by political developments in recent months to believe the time was ripe to resume his search.-begun in 1968-for a formula under which Iran could play a greater peace-keeping role on the Gulf's western shore. He believes the political systems there archaic and susceptible to subversion. Resulting politkal instability, he fears, could provide an opening for interference by outside powers in Gulf affairs. Tehran looked to the Jidda meeting to produce a staicinent in which the participants would take a ccmmon position on the desirability of limiting foreign interference in the Gulf. The Shah had afro hoped the ministers would take steps toward an early Gulf summit conference on the security question. Neither goal was realized, although the ministers did agree to consult further. The iranians are nevertheless portraying the Jidda meeting in the best possible light, claiming as progress the fact that representatives from all Gulf states met for the first time to discuss common problems. An official in Iran's There are, in fact, substantial differences among the states. Saudi Arabia was probably the main obstacle to rapid movement toward formal security cooperation. The smaller Gulf states probably followed its lead. The mistrustful Saudis do not believe there are threats sufficient to warrant a regional security arrangement and prefer to rely on bilateral ties. They certainly do not share the Shah's perception of a power vacuum on the western side of the Guff that Iran should help fill. Iraq reportedly supported the idea of a formal declaration, but one restricted to assuring freedom of navigation in the Gulf. Baghdad does not favor the more comprehensive a roach bein pushed the Iranians. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 PORTUGAL: GONCALVES AT ISSUE The military regime in Lisbon is continuing its efforts to put a government together, despite a power struggle between moderates and radicals in its own ranks and the open opposition of moderate political parties. The military may try to compromise by offering to reorganize the government, but this would be only an expedient and would not solve the country's worsening problems. the proposed reorganization would entail restructuring the government to form an 11-man directorate drawn from the present all-military Revolutionary Council. The Revolutionary Council-whose consensus rule has weakened its decision-making capability--would be reduced to playing a pro forma role. Power would be further concentrated in a three-man executive composed of President Costa Gomes, Prime Minister Goncalves, and security chief Otelo de Carvalho, presumably representing the moderate, pro-Communist, and left-nationalist factions within the council. The executive would be assisted by two deputy prime ministers-one military and one civilian- to handle day-to-day administration problems. Both nominees suggested for the two positions are acceptable to the moderates; this may be the quid pro quo for retaining the present prime minister-whom the moderates want to oust- and accepting his cabinet nominees. Such an arrangement might settle surface differences within the military, but the lull would be temporary at best. The moderates are unhappy about Goncalves' pro-Communist policies and have been trying to bring about his ouster by frustrating his efforts to form a new cabinet. They have been counting on the back- ing of a majority of the Revolutionary Council in a vote, but the continuing stalemate and the delay caused by Goncalves' difficulty in forming a new cabinet may lead to an erosion of the' moderates' support. Many officers would prob- ably favor putting a quick end to the present uncertainty by revamping the governmental structure. The 240-member Armed Forces General Assembly on July 25 will consider the reorgan- ization and possibly other proposals to restruc- ture the government-some perhaps designed to alter the balance of power-but Goncalves' chances for political survival appear strong. An attempt by moderates in the assembly to oust Goncalves at this late date may well end in failure. 25X1 The moderate political parties are unlikely to be pleased with the proposed reorganization. The Socialists, in particular, buoyed by the massive turnouts at party rallies in Lisbon and Oporto over the weekend, will be confronted by the need to resipond decisively if it appears that the propcsed reorganization means that Goncalves will remain in office. The Socialists used the rallies to protest the Armed Forces Movement's new policy of establishing "direct links" between the military and the people and bypassing political parties. They also con- centrated on criticism of the prime minister in an effort to encourage mod( ates in the military to reverse the government's continuing trend to the left. The Communists, on the other hand, will welcome any solution that retains Goncalves- the Communists' key to power-in the govern- ment. They responded to the Socialist demon- strations by taking advantage of their dominant position in the mass media to publicize support for Goncalves, while playing down the Social- ists' success in organizing massive popular dem- onstrations of strength. The Communist-dom- inated propaganda division of the armed forces general staff has also expressed its support for the prime minister and his attempt to form a new government. The Communists are concerned, however, about the wave of violence directed at their offices and property in northern Portugal. Never popular in the conservative north, the Commu.? nists have been tolerated until recently, but incidents of attacks on party offices by angry citizens are increasing daily. Although no single liti l po ca group has claimed credit for organizing the attacks, they are becoming too numerous to be dismissed as random outbreaks of anfi.rnm. Page 7 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25. 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 S 2bAl ITALY: FANFANI FALLS . Amintore Fanfani was forced out of Italy's .most powerful. political position-secretary of .the Christian, Democratic Party-when he lost a vote of confidence at the party's national coun- cil.meeting this week. Fanfani's ouster amounts to a first step by the Christian Democrats to- ward changing their conservative image and -improving relations with the Socialist Party. Fanfani's power base came apart quickly in the five weeks between the council meeting and the regional and local elections last month. By late last week, center and leftist factions repre- senting about 70 percent of the party had re- signiA from Fanfani's executive directorate. Prime, Minister Moro and his faction did not go that far, -but Moro kept his distance from Fan- fani by proposing a temporary "collegial" lead- ership to guide the party until its congress in the fall. Despite his isolation, Fanfani resisted pres- sure to resign until close to 60 percent of those attending this week's meeting voted not to accept his report to the council. In his report, De Martino(c) with other Socialist leaders Fanfani' blamed Christian Democratic losses on long-term political trends rather than his policies. The Christian Democrats are still discussing how to replace Fanfani. If they rule out IJloro's plan, Fanfani's successor will almost certainly be a moderate who has reached an accommodation with the Christian Democratic left-wing. The left has consistently opposed Fanfani's policies. Attention will now shift to the Socialists, whose central committee is currently evaluating the results of the Christian Democratic meeting. By ousting Fanfani, the Christian Democrats have met one of the conditions recently listed by Socialist chief De Martino for his party's return to full participation in another center-left coalition, still the only workable alternative to Communist participation at the national level. The Socialists are now limiting their role to "case by case" parliamentary support for Moro's cabinet of Christian Democrats and Re- publicans. In addition, the Socialists want program- matic concessions from the Christian Democrats that would give any new government a more leftist cast. Even those Christian Democrats in- clined to move in that direction, however, will have trouble with De Martino's idea of bringing the Communists directly into the government's policy-making process. De Martino, although ruling out government posts for the Communists in an interview last week, called for formalized consultations with them on the government's program. De Martino said he could not see how his party could agree to participate in a govern- ment that leaves the Communists in opposition. The Socialists evidently believe their party will suffer electorally if it remains associated exclusively with the Christian Democrats. At the same time, the Socialists fear they would be dominated politically in any partnership with the stronger and better-organized Communists. De Martino's idea of getting all three parties ^ Page 8 WEEKLY REVIEW Juf 25.75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 lassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 committed to the same program is an attempt to solve both problems. The Communists are still preoccupied with consolidating their gains at the regional and local levels, but they regard Fanfani's fall as a victory. The Communist electoral campaign was a highly personalized one and directed against Fanfani, whose political line was more explicitly anti-communist than most other Christian Democratic leaders. Fanfani's nomination of the Christian Democrats was seen by Communist chief Berlinguer as a major obstacle to his "his- toric compromise" strategy, aimed at an even- tual rapprochement between the two parties. SPAIN: NEW POLITICAL GROUPS Prime Minister Arias' plan to permit con- trolled political associations is being undermined by opposition groups who are forming their own organizations without the regime's sanction. Last month, 16 center-left opposition par- ties formed an alliance known as the Democratic Convergence. The organization is reportedly unwilling to apply for legal status, apparently out of concern that to do so might tarnish its opposition image. N The Democratic Convergence has the po- tential to become a major political force if the various parties within the alliance maintain their cohesiveness and if partisan activity is permitted in the post-Franco era. It will serve as a counter- weight to the Communist-dominated Demo- cratic Junta formed in Paris last year. The new organization made its first public move last week when it issued a manifesto calling for the "re-establishment of popular sovereignty through an essential break with the regime and the beginning of a constitutional period." Earlier this month a group of moderates- most of whom had been associated with the Franco regime at one time or another-formally constituted a political action group under the guise of a research corporation. By organizing as a research corporation instead of appiying for status as a political association, the founders-- whose political credentials are impressive-have signaied their disapproval of the limitations on associations while maintaining a political voice through their new organization. The founders of the new corporation, to be known as the Independent Studies Federation- FEDISA-stated that its purpose is to study political, social, and economic problems con- fronting Spain. While admitting that they sub- scribe to different political ideologies, all the members believe that public liberties and co?n- mitment to a democratic system are essential. FEDISA should become an important pres- sure group. The most prominent member is Manuel Fraga Iribarne, currently ambassador to London, who earlier this year decided not to form a political association after the government failed to provide sufficient guarantees of free- dom of action. A number of other members still occupy official positions, and many have oc- cupied important government posts. The Franco government reportedly is angered over the organization of FEDISA out- side the framework of the political associations. The newly appointed minister of the National Movement called the device of incorporation "a fraud against the nation." General Franco himself criticized dis1 dent political groups in widely publicized remarks last week to a conservative organization of Civil War veterans. His reference to the dissident groups as "dogs who bark" seems certain to hinder further Arias' efforts to encourage appli- cations for political association status. In the period since last January, when the statute for political associations took effect, only five, pre- dominantly rightist, political associations have been approved by the government. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 25X1 Negotiators at the European security con- ference reached agreement on military-related confidence-building measures -rid several other issues last weekend follov ing the longest negotiating s'ssion in the histo-,- of the confer- ence. The acjreements clearec' the way for acceptance o' July 30 as the opening date for a three-day summit in Helsinki. Agreement on confidence-building meas- ure; was made possible when Turkey, under increasing pressure from its NATO Allies, dropped most of its demands. Compromises were worked out that give Turkey partial exemption from notification of maneuvers along its southern and eastern borders. Turkish con- cerns were also recognized by the inclusion of a provision for separate notification of amphibious and airborne maneuvers. Th.- Soviets held out until the last hour for a mention of the "irreversibility of detente" in the final declaration, but agreed finally on a slightly less pointed formulation. The Soviets also tacitly agreed to allow Italian Prime Min- ister Moro to sign the final declaration twice- acting on behalf of the EC as well as Italy. Attention has now shifted to Helsinki, where 35 heads of government meet next week to sign the declaration adopted by the confer- ence. Each speaker is supposed to limit himself to 20 minutes. In an order determined by !ot, British Prime Minister Wilson will be the first to address the conference; General Secretary Brezhnev will be thirteenth, and President Ford is twenty-sixth. West European leaders are generally on the defensive as the Helsinki summit approaches. They hope to counter initial public skepticism by focusing in Helsinki on the more positive aspects of the agreement, stressing the potential for expanded human contacts and increased cooperation with the East. The UK, France, and the CIS will elso make coordinated statements noting the applicability of the conference documents to Berlin. The Western allies now believe that Mos- cow may follow up the CSCE with renewed emphasis on disarmament negotiations, possibly including a new push for a world disarmament conference. A high-ranking French Foreign Ministry official said his government also expects Moscow to begin a drive to broaden the scope of the force reductions talks in Vienna to The meeting in Brusseis on July 16-17 of the European Council fulfilled the aim of the nine EC leaders to conduct an informal ex- change of views on major issues without giving rise to public anticipation of dramatic decisions. Ilie largely unstructured format was not without its limitations, despite the keen satisfac- tion expressed by French President Giscard and German Chancellor Schmidt. The perennial complaint of the "Small Six" EC countries that the "Bid Three" dominate such proceedings was implicitly reflected in comments to the US embassy by a Dutch foreign office official. The Hague was also exasperated by what it regards as the lack of focus to the discussions, which the Dutch blame on inadequate staft preparations. EC Commissioner Soames has privately admitted that the Council was confused and had made only limited pro,ress, but he attributed this largely to a poor performance by the chair- man, Italian Prime Minister Moro. Economic issues relating to the v'iorld-wide recession dominated the talks. As expected, no 25X1 lox] Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 __ _. major common policies were agreed upon, although the discussions probably helped clear the way for eventual decisions. A consensus was reached that all members, except Britain, Italy, and Ireland, would implement further reflationary measures, par- ticularly increased public spending, early this fall. This topic headed the agenda of the Wilson- Schmidt and the Schmidt-Giscard meetings in Germany on July 24 and 25-26 respectively. As a result, Schmidt is expected to express a Com- munity viewpoint when he urges President Ford to pursue a similar policy when they meet in Bonn on July 26. It was agreed that Paris-which reported Washington's agreement-would take steps to call a second preparatory conference of oil producers and consumers early this fall. If all goes well, and the differences which led to the breakdown of the first meeting are resolved, the full conference would be scheduled for late November or early December. Giscard did not ask the other EC members to support his proposal for an economic and monetary summit of the US, the UK, France, West Germany, and Japan. The nine reportedly were in full agreement that consultations with the US and Japan were necessary, but the timing, level, and modalities were not discussed in detail. Moreover, some of the smaller mem- bers are insisting that the Community as an entity should be represented to ensure that their interests are protected. Official sources in Bonn understand that an agenda would focus prirna- rily on coordination of demand management policies designed to restore economic growth, and that a discussion of international monetary questions-and the French effort to restore a fixed exchange rate system-would be sec- ondary. Discussion on raw material policy, and on an EC strategy for this fall's special session of the UN General Assembly, apparently facilitated the compromise reflected in an agreement reached at this week's foreign ministers council. At the ministerial, the Nine agreed on broad guidelines which will serve as the basis of the EC presentation at the UN meeting. The paper represents a balance between those in the Community-notably France-who wanted to emphasize commodity agreements and those who preferred a policy aimed at stabilizing the export earnings of developing countries. Developments in Portugal and the outlook for a large loan to the Lisbon government were carefully scrutinized. It was agreed that aid to Lisbon-French objections notwithstanding- would be contingent upon evidence that it intends to adopt a democratic form of govern- ment. Portuguese Foreign Minister Antunes, however, decided at the last moment not to keep his appointment with the EC foreign min- isters. The Council issued a declaration on the UN which, while not specifically mentioning Israel, Summit participants congregate in front of the Royal Palace in Brussels Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 was intended to reflect EC concern over recent Arab moves to exclude that country from the UN. The leaders also agreed upon a declaration to be made in connection with the CSCE summit meeting. The leaders devoted scant time to EC institutional questions, although Prime Minister Wilson took advantage of this first summit meet- ing since the UK referendum on EC membership to discuss Britain's new commitment to Europe. Britain withdrew its reservation on giving the European Parliament significantly increased authority over the EC budget, thus enabling the foreign ministers this week to sign the necessary documentation and pass it to the member gov- ernments for ratification. In another move involving the Parliament, the leaders set up a committee to prepare a report for the next European Council in November on the prospec- tives for direct elections of national representa- tives to Parliament by 1978. The foreign min- isters were also charged with providing reports, by year's end, on the prospects for an EC passport union and on formulating community- MBFR: DEADLOCK CONTINUES The force reduction talks in Vienna have adjourned until September, with the 22-month deadlock still unbroken. Western representatives hope that once the European security confer- ence is out of the way, some progress can be made in the next round by introducing Option I I l--the West's nuclear proposal. The nuclear proposal calls for the reduc- tion in Western Europe of some US nuclear warheads and delivery systems in return for a withdrawal of a Soviet tank army and as firm a Soviet commi+ment as possible to a common ceiling for both Warsaw Pact and NATO forces in Central Europe. The West continued unsuccessfully to press for a Soviet reduction in ground forces and a common ceiling. Although pressed by Western negotiators to exchange data concerning its forces, the Eastern side continued to regard such an exchange as "premature." The Soviets continued to criticize the asymmetrical approach advo-ated by the West and demanded that the scope of the negotia- tions be broadened to include reduction of air and nuclear forces. They also continued to insist that all West European participants-not just the US-accept limitations on their forces from the outset of the agreement. The only new development came when the East agreed to discuss how to distinguish ground from air forces, but no agreement was reached on definitions. The subject will come up again in September. The real focus of Western activity was at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where the Allies are still engaged in detailed discussions- expected to continue into August-of the nuclear option. Two particularly sensitive issues were raised: possible limitations on West Euro- pean armaments, and the issue of restraining Soviet nuclear systems in the area. Other issues under discussion included: ? The nature of a Soviet commitment to a common ceiling for manpower. ? The possible inclusion of air as well as ground force manpower in the common ceiling. ? The extent to which these proposals should be linked together and the appro- priate time to introduce them at Vienna. Some of the allies, particularly West Germany, are extremely sensitive to any pro- oosals involving limitations on Allied weapons. Bonn might accept some restraints on man- power, but virtually rules out any limitations on West German armaments. The UK insists that the West require a Soviet commitment to a specifically enumerated rnmmnn piling. Page 12 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS A meeting of the trade negotiations com- mittee in Geneva on July 15-16 set the stage for substantive talks in the multilateral trade nego- tiations now under way. Most of the indus- trialized countries that are participating in the talks were generally satisfied with their pace. Tne developing countries, however, complained that little has been done for them. Developed and 'developing countries alike agree that early progress in the talks is most likely in the area of tropical products, of principal interest to the developing countries. As the emphasis in the negotiations shifts from generalities to specifics, however, progress in other areas will be more difficult. The aim of the meeting last week was to review the work since last February of six nego- tiating groups and to give it impetus before the main committee meets again in December. To a large extent, the tone was set by a US proposal to identify those areas in which, short of an overall agreement, accords on "interim concrete results" might be reached. The developing states, looking for preferential treatment, gen- erally favored the proposal. Japan and the EC, who with the US are the major participants in the talks, did not reject the propo,-31, but neither did they endorse it. Japan and the EC have long had reservations over an early agreement, but both apparently felt that the US proposal caused them fewer problems than an earlier US suggestion that participants attempt to establish interim deadlines for talks in selected areas. Both feel that reaching a final balanced agreement will be difficult in any case and that failure to reach agreements on interim goals could deal the talks a serious blow. In talks with US officials in Brussels after the committee meeting, EC Commission Vice President Soames expressed only guarded ap- proval of the US proposal in Geneva. Soames did say that, although he could not agree to set specific target dates for early achievements, early progress could and should be made to satisfy the demands of the developing countries on tropical products. Another EC official said he was satisfied that the Geneva meeting had been able to end without the EC having been forced to take a position on interim agreements. In Brussels, the US and EC agreed to maintain close bilateral consultations. Working groups in Geneva conducting negotiations on specific items will resume their meetings in September. The groups will con- tinue to seek a tariff-cutting formula and meth- ods to remove non-tariff barriers to trade. Agriculture will remain the mos+. difficult topic, because the US and the EC still have fundamentally different approaches. The US wants to assure that negotiations on agriculture are not isolated from talks in other groups so that EC farm protectionism in fact becomes subject to bargaining. The EC, fearful of attacks on its agricultural policy, wants farm trade iso- lated as much as possible from the negotiations on industrial tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Notwithstanding an agreement in May between the US and the EC, which allowed negotiations in the agriculture group finally to get under way, fundamental differences are far from resolved, and another impasse could de- velop at any time. The EC has also seized upon recent Soviet grain purchases to promote their efforts to incorporate into the trade negotiations the talks on grain reserves now being held in London. Commission Vice President Soames recently questioned whether the large purchases, by greatly reducing the amount of grain available for stockpiling, do not vitiate US arguments for 25X1 25X1 2bAl Page 13 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 ARGENTINA: MORE CABINET CHANGES President Peron, whose own days in office may be numbered, was obliged to make further cabinet changes this week. She accepted the resignation, of embattled Economy Minister Rodrigo, reviled for his support of economic austerity and for his ties to the ousted Lopez Rega. She also was forced to . r! ce her new press secretary and the man whom only two weeks 'ago sho had appointed to succeed Lopez Rega as welfare minister. Both had been linked to Lopez Rega. Still more cabinet changes are rumored, particularly in the ministries of labor and foreign relations. The latest changes, the second major shuf- fle in two weeks, were prompted by continuing pressure from organized labor, backed by the military. The officers also moved to eliminate the residual influence of Lopez Rega by insisting on his departure from Argentina; he quickly left for Spain. national assistance for its serious balance-of- payments situation. Labor has refused to accept that there is any need for decreased spending and sacrifice. This week, labor leaders called for further periodic wage increases, as well as price controls and the nationalization of foreign trade activities and the banking system. Despite the changes at the top, the admin- istration's woes continue. Critics have already begun to charge that the newest welfare minis- ter, Rodolfo Roballos, is also linked to Lopez Rega. Moreover, work stoppages continue in Buenos Aires and elsewhere. Striking doctors were dispersed bS security forces; airline pilots staged walkouts. in addition, the left-wing Peronist youth group has calied for the resigna- tion of Mrs. Peron, charging that her govern- ment is not truly Peronist. Right-wing youth replied by threatening with death anyone who Named to take over the top economic policy post is Pedro Jose Bonanni, a lawyer and moderate Peronist who 20 years ago headed Juan Peron's Finance Ministry. He should be generally accepted. It would be difficult to at- tack him politically, given his Peronist creden- tials. He has given no indication of his policy intentions, but further attempts at economic austerity are high/ unlikely. The repudiation of Rodv Igo and austerity is another political victory for labor, but further undercuts the country's ability to secure inter- Lopez Rego 25X1 Page 14 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 CUBA FOCUSES ON THE CARIBBEAN The Central Committee of the Cuban Com- munist Party has reportedly decided to con- centrate Cuba's attention in Latin America on the Caribbean basin and de-emphasize attempts to establish influence in South America. The one key exception to the new policy is Peru, where Havana will continue its efforts to de- velop closer relations. The decision probably stems partially from Havana's desire to take advantage of the growing sense of ideological compatibility with Cuba on the part of some Caribbean leaders and of their appreciation of the Castro regime's increased respectability in the hemisphere. Since April, the heads of government of Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica have visited Cuba and been personally squired around the island by Fidel Castro. Mexican President Echeverria will travel to Cuba in August, and Prime Minister Errol Barrow of Barbados may do so later this year. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 GNAT 11o-5 61S COS RICA'1 ~-;ANA ~1r() JAMAICA` HAITI} CA U IIt/t/:',1 N At the same time, the Cuban leadership doubtless sees little prospect for inroads in much of South America, either through conven- tional diplomacy or subversion, given the presence of entrenched governments hostile to the Castro regime. In specializing its focus on the Caribbean, the Cuban leadership is undoubtedly in step with Soviet advice to be more pragmatic in its foreign policy. Earlier indications that the Cu- bans arc: accepting Soviet guidance in Latin America were the Cuban decision to eschew the armed struggle, revealed publicly last October, and the reported move to seek a reconciliation with the Latin American Communist parties at last month's Latin American Communist Party meeting in Havana. In the Caribbean, Havana's first priority is those countries whose governments have demon- strated an eagerness to move leftward and whose smallness seems to make them more susceptible to Cuban influence. Havana places its greatest hopes in Jamaica and Guyana. Their leaders have talked socialism but could use help in developingica mass base, organized for social and econom objectives, that would back a move to the left. Havana I The Caribbean Basin REPUBLIC Puorlo Rico SEA VENEZUELA! F*t'.cp SUHlM1A 4Uv C As de,r,r try C.1, undoubtedly is urging them to create mass or- ganizations and may even help them whenever possible. Prime Ministers Manley of Jamaica and Burnham of Guyana both returned from Cuba with glowing praise for the Cuban model, and plans are afoot for expanding Havana's ties with both governments. The Cuban leadership probably has greater reservations about Trinidad and Tobago because of the rivalry between Castro and Prime Minister Eric Williams. Their competitive relationship was reflected most recently when Castro re- portedly rebuked Williams for negotiating eco- nomic agreements with the European Common Market at the expense of what Castro con- sidered Caribbean unity. The Cubans are probably increasingly opti- mistic about their prospects for influence in Honduras as a result of the rise to power of the young turks in the Honduran military. Havana will continue to work with Mexico and Venezuela on Third World issues, but it almost certainly realizes that the competition for regional leadership among Castro and Presi- den-l`s Perez and Echeverria limits the extent of potential Cuban influence in either of these Page 15 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 ECUADOR: PAYMEN IS PROBLEMS Quito's long-standing dispute with the Tex- aco-Gulf consortium that produces practically all of Ecuador's oil will cause lower export revenues this year. Progress is now being made toward ending the dispute, but a continuing boom in imports is likely to result in a large current account deficit. effect until last week-made it noncompetitive with most crude oil from the Middle East. De- clining tanker rates have reduced the short-haul advantage Ecuador had for its crude, much of which goes to Caribbean refineries via the Panama Canal. Oil shipments began to decline in May 1974, when the government slapped on con- servation ceilings that forced Texaco-Gulf to reduce output from 240,000 to 210,000 barrels a day. Technical difficulties with the Trans- Andean pipeline and consortium shutdowns aimed at forcing policy changes led to further cuts in production. Consequently, oil shipments dipped 18 percent in 1974 and an additional 29 percent in the first half of 1975. Total export earnings, which soared to $1.1 billion in 1974, will slip to $1 billion this year even if oil ship- ments soon regain their earlier peak level. The dispute centers on Quito's oil tax policy. Company officials maintain that the tax- paid cost of $11 a barrel for Ecuador's crude-in OAS: CUBA SANCTIONS The sanctions against Cuba will prob- ably be addressed by the OAS delegates now in conference in San Jose, Costa Rica. Amendments to the Rio Treaty-the official business of the conference-snould be com- pleted within a few days. Mexico then hopes to present a resolution designed to allow OAS members "freedom of action" on rela- tions with Cuba-a proposal that most of the delegates favor. The final decision to deal with the Cuba problem at San Jose has not been made, but Mexico appears to have the votes to push it through. The conference as constituted now is not empowered to act or, this matter, but the delegates can "reconvene" as an Organ of Consultation immediately after the ;.:,ir- rent session ends. A few governments prefer favors rapid movement. Page 16 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 Texaco-Gulf also has become increasingly disturbed because the government has failed to pay both the remaining $3 million due on a 25-percent equity purchased in the consortium and a fair share of operating costs. Faced with this as well as the tax and production-ceiling disputes, the consortium abandoned explora- tion, postponed plans for opening new fields, and delayed expansion of the 250,000 - barrel per day Trans Andean pipeline. The govern- ment's oil policy also discouraged a consortium of American firms from constructing a pipeline spur to its concession this year. To force Quito to come to terms, Texaco- Gulf shut down production for two weeks in May and suspended operations indefinitely in early June. At the same time, it offered to make new investments totaling $165 million in ex- change for more conciliatory pc;0icies. On July 9, the government agreed to cut taxes by 43 cents per barrel; the consortium demanded a cut of at least 60 cents. Quito probably will make additional concessions soon because it cannot afford a prolonged loss of oil revenues. Increased expenditures on economic de- velopment and welfare will bring an estimated 38-percent jump in imports this year. Although Quito has temporarily banned automobile im- ports and has restricted credit financing of other purchases abroad, it has avoided severe curbs for fear of hurting development programs and aggra- vating inflation. Even if oil exports are promptly resumed, a current account deficit of nearly $400 million is likely. Because foreign reserves totaled only $274 million at the end of May, Quito will seek for- eign capital to cover the deficit. It probably will be forced to rely mainly on commercial sources. A request for $1 billion in credits from Middle Eastern governments has been ignored. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 PERU: STRIKES IN AREQUIPA A general strike in the southern city of Arequipa this past week ed to several clashes with the police and caused the government to decree a state of emergency in Arequipa, Moquegua, Tacna, and Puno provinces and to suspend constitutional guarantees. Four cabinet ministers flew to Arequipa-a long-time center of anti-goverment opposition- to seek an accommodation with the workers. Although they made a number of concessions, the talks broke down. The press reports 50,000 workers went on strike. The government's show of force, however, caused the strike to end shortly after the emergency decrees were ini- tiated. The basic issue-inadequate wage in- creases to compensate for price hikes resulting from the termination of government subsidies for important items-does not appear near resolution, however, and tabor unrest may spread to other parts of Peru. Worker dissatisfaction with the economic decrees issued by Prime Minister Morales Ber- mudez on June 30 is widespread. These meas- ures were designed to combat spiraling inflation and a growing budgetary deficit. The plan calls for the reduction-and in some cases the re- moval-of government subsidies on essential agricultural and petroleum products, and for wage increases to help offset the price hikes. Labor groups, however, argue that the wage increases are not commensurate with the price hikes. It is also quite probable that the commu- nist General Confederation of the Peruvian Workers was using the strike to warn against anti-communist tendencies in the government. The confederation has long supported the gov- ernment's policies, but the shifting of power from Velasco to the more moderate Morales Bermudez has caused it considerable concern. Morales Bermudez' economic policy has been a matter of controversy since he suspended Velasco's use of economic subsidies to help Peru's lower classes. If it provokes increased opposition, Morales Bermudez' present strength, together with his prospects for succeeding '/elasco as president, will eventually be weak- ened. The government's flexibility in last week's negotiations may indicate that he recognizes that he must seek some compromise with the workers to avoid a confrontation that would play into the radical opposition's hand. 25X1 BRAZIL: LIBERALIZATION ATTACKED Conservative military opponents of Presi- dent Geisel are exerting strong pressure to force him to abandon his program of political liberal- ization. No direct confrontations have occurred, but during the past month security forces on their own authority have accelerated their ar- rests of communists and leftists, and a new series of anonymous pamphlets attacking Geisel personally has been circulated among high- ranking officers. About 100 leftist opponents of the regime have been taken into custody in several states. Despite the President's strict orders against torture and illegal detention, some of those ar- rested in Sao Paulo reportedly were initially mistreated and held without the required notifi- cation being given within 48 hours after arrest. Meanwhile, right-wing publications linking gov- ernment leaders to international communism have appeared for the second time this year. The reasons for the resurgence of concern at this particular time are not clear. Geisel has not made any major political changes recently, nor has he indicated that he plans to do so. It may all be an effort to block the appointment of a strong liberal to replace General Golbery, 25X1 25X1 25X1 Page 17 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Dec assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2G 5X1 There is no firm evidence. that opposition to Geisel is well organized or widespread enough to pose a serious threat to the stability of his government. The attacks apparently are in- tended to warn him that he may already have gone too far in promoting liberalization. By initiating a controlled dialogue with politicians, Geisel departed substantially from the attitudes of his predecessors. Fresh indications of con- tinuing strong opposition to these moves make further significant liberalization unlikely in the PANAMA: OPTIONS ON THE CANAL Senior Panamanian officials, pessimistic about the canal treaty negotiations with the US, are discussing possible courses of action. General Torrijos and his advisers are concentrating on three options: The first involves compromising on some treaty issues in order to reach an agreement this year, with the understanding that US ratifi- cation would probably be delayed until 1977. The Panamanians believe this course would retain the confidence of foreign investors, but by forcing the government to yield somewhat on key issues would incur opposition from cer- tain student and other nationalist groups. The second alternative, to draw out nego- tiations until 1977, would involve taking a tough stance on key issues in the belief that the US position would become even more vul- nerable as a result of intensified world-wide criticism. It is felt that this international pres- sure would force Washington to grant more extensive concessions prior to the conclusion of any treaty. The third option would be to admit that the negotiations had broken down and to move toward a possibly violer,!. confrontation with the US. The authorities would allow students to make incursions into the Canal Zone, take the issue before the UN, and begin a vitriolic anti- US propaganda campaign. This approach would entail serious drawbacks. Disorders would ag- gravate existing economic problems, and the government might have difficulty maintaining control once anti-US activities had begun. Torrijos seems to be trying to gauge the mood of the public before deciding on a course of action. Thus far, he has mixed moderation with pressure, but may decide later to use some parts of each option. The general appears to want to continue to negotiate. The pro-government press stresses that Torrijos is convinced this is the best path to achieve Panama's aspirations. The US embassy has been told that Vice President Arturo Sucre was removed because he opposed compromise in the negotiations. At the same time, however, Torrijos has muddied the water by declaring he no longer feels bound to protect the confiden- tiality of the talks. Panamanian officials have begun making public the details of the nego- tiations. These statements could make it diffi- cult for the Panamanian negotiators to retain flexib;lity on certain key issues. Torrijos may have decided that the possi- bility of a new treaty in effect before 1977 is very remote. He almost certainly believes, how- ever, that considerably before that time he must have a major accomplishment, such as the sign- ing of a draft, to show the people. If he is unable to produce such an accomplishment through negotiation, he will more than likely give serious thought to the possible benefits-as well as hazards-of using violence. F_ ~cvi 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Page 18 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 classified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 ;Yl Communist efforts to assert more author- ity-at least on the national level-have slowed down since the end of the communist central co:, mittee meeting in Sam Neua in late June. Communist Deputy Prime Minister Phoune Sipraseuth told a Western military attache on July 17 that leaders in Sam Neua had decided that the revolutionary process had been pushed too rapidly and had caused an unacceptable amount of popular discontent. He estimated that the "revolution" at its present pace would not be completed for two years. In Vientiane, the communists are still chipping away at the coalition facade, but there have been few dramatic chances in recent weeks. The Joint Commission to Implement the Agree- ment, which had been active in negotiating thorny cease-fire issues and enjoyed equal status with the cabinet, has been declared "unneces- sary" and dissolved. The Joint National Political Council, which supposedly sets policy guidelines for the cabinet, has postponed its summer ses- sion until October. Non-communist cabinet ministers are virtually powerless. Defense Mi-i- ister Pheng Phongsavan, at one time a force in his own right, cannot even sign chits authorizing use of gasoline. Deference continues to he paid Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma, however, and his presence in the country may serve to inhibit those communists who would like to push the revolution with more vigor. Reports from the countryside suggest that the communists are moving more rapidly toward setting up a traditional communist administra- tive system in the provinces-particularly in the south. Non-communist police and military units have been disarmed, communist officials installed in local government posts, hair and dress regulations promulgated, and in some areas the Lao flag discarded. In the city of Thakhek in the central panhandle, several reports indicate that earlier this month several students and Pathet Lao troops Page 19 WEEKLY REVIEW Jul 25, 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 other young people were seriously injured when Pathet Lao troops used gunfire to enforce an order. In response to these measures, former officers and government officials have been slipping across the border to Thailand. No organized resistance has been reported, nor is it likely to develop. The Lao-perhaps in an effort to remove foreign witnesses to their activities in the coun- tryside-are eliminating all non-communist diplomatic presence outside Vientiane. The Thai have closed three consulates because of un- certainty about the safety of their personnel. The French have been asked to close their three small military missions in the provinces, and Japanese and Australian voluntary agencies are bringing their activities outside the capital to an end. Travel by foreigners outside the capital has also been limited. Pressure is building on non-communist diplomatic missions in Vientiane, although they are not being subjected to the kind of intense harassment directed at the US embassy. All are finding it increasingly difficult to transact business with the government. In contrast, the Soviets claim they have no problems. A pro- communist Vientiane daily recently lumped the Australians with the Thai as "obstructors of progress toward national reconciliation." Leftist students, who in the past have been important communist provocateurs, now claim to be "examining the size of foreign diplomatic mis- sions." The South Koreans are taking steps to improve their naval capabilities vis-a-vis North Korea. North Korea has expanded its naval shipbuilding in the last six years, but Seoul has done comparatively little. South Korea's major surface force-ten destroyers and destroyer escorts-was provided by the US, although the South recently began construction of a multi- mission patrol boat. Seoul has been anxious to obtain naval cruise missiles to counter North Korea's Styx missiles. For the past two years, the South has sought the US Harpoon system and would like to begin installing them next summer on their newer generation patrol boats. The Harpoon, however, is only now becoming available for US use and is not scheduled for delivery to South Korea before mid-1977. Seoul reached an agree- ment with Paris earlier this year for the Exocet missile system, but with the understanding that the deal would not go through if delivery of the Harpoon can be expedited. As on interim measure, Seoul is installing US Standard antiship cruise missiles or. three patrol boats; two missile systems will be opera- tional by the middle of August and the third shortly thereafter. A fourth patrol boat will be outfitted with the Standard in the next few months. It probably will be awhile, however, before the ships are fully operational. These are the first South Korean ships to be equipped with naval cruise missiles and will give Seoul's navy greater firepower. The Standard is a match for North Korea's Styx missiles and, if based near the Northern Limit Lines, the patrol boats could quickly respond to naval incidents. In addition, Seoul has approved plans for a 1,200- to 1,500-ton destroyer, South Korea's first attempt to design and build such a ship. it reportedly will be built by the Hyundai Shipbuilding Company at a cost of $78 million. Specifications and possible weapons systems are now being studied, but no date has been set to start construction. The South Koreans estimate the ship will be operational within two years after construction begins. They may eventually place cruise missiles on board the destroyer, probably Harpoons when they are available. 25X1 Page 20 WEEKLY REVIEW Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP85T00875R001000080034-2