THE SOVIET ICBM PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 10, 1957
• Content Type: SNIE

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
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DOC. NO.
SNIE 11-10-57 C....4,4,/ 12 Dec 195?
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20 : CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
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SNIE 11-10-57
10 December 1957
034113
TOP R
SPECIAL
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
NUMBER 11-10-57
THE SOVIET ICBM PROGRAM
CONCLUSIONS
(The full text of this estimate is
being published separately.)
Submitted by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the
preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency
and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, The Joint Staff, and
the Atomic Energy Commission.
Concurred in by the
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
on 10 December 1957. Concurring were The Director of Intelli-
gence and Research, Department of State; the Assistant
Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Army; the
Director of Naval Intelligence; the Assistant Chief of Staff,
Intelligence, USAF; the Deputy Director for Intelligence, The
Joint Staff; and the Atomic Energy Commission Representa-
tive to the IAC. The Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of
Investigation, abstained, the subject being outside of his
jurisdiction.
103
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
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i.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DISSEMINATION NOTICE
1. This estimate was disseminated by the Central Intelligence Agency. This copy
is for the information and use of the recipient indicated on the front cover and of per-
sons under his jurisdiction on a need to know basis. Additional essential dissemination
may be authorized by the following officials within their respective departments:
a. Special Assistant to the Secretary for Intelligence, for the Department of
State
b. Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, for the Department of the Army
c. Director of Naval Intelligence, for the Department of the Navy
d. Director of Intelligence, USAF, for the Department of the Air Force
e. Deputy Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff, for the Joint Staff
f. Director of Intelligence, AEC, for the Atomic Energy Commission
g. Assistant Director, FBI, for the Federal Bureau of Investigation
h. Assistant Director for Central Reference, CIA, for any other Department or
Agency
2. This copy may be retained, or destroyed by burning in accordance with appli-
cable security regulations, or returned to the Central Intelligence Agency by arrange-
ment with the Office of Central Reference, CIA.
3. When an estimate is disseminated overseas, the overseas recipients may retain
it for a period not in excess of one year. At the end of this period, the estimate should
either be destroyed, returned to the forwarding agency, or permission should be
requested of the forwarding agency to retain it in accordance with IAC-D-69/2, 22
June 1953.
4. The title of this estimate, when used separately from the text, should be classified:
SECRET
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
DISTRIBUTION:
White House
National Security Council
Department of State
Department of Defense
Operations Coordinating Board
Atomic Energy Commission
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
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THE SOVIET ICBM PROGRAM
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the probable development timetable and characteristics of the So-
viet intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), including the probable date of first op-
erational capability, and to examine the factors likely to affect Soviet acquisition of
a substantial nuclear delivery capability with the ICBM weapon system.'
CONCLUSIONS
1. ICBM development has an extremely
high priority in the USSR, if indeed it
is not presently on a "crash" basis. We
believe that the USSR will seek to ac-
quire a substantial ICBM capability as
rapidly as possible.
2. We believe the USSR is concentrating
on the development of an ICBM which,
when operational, will probably be capa-
ble of carrying a high-yield nuclear war-
head to a maximum range of about 5,500
nautical miles, with a CEP of five nautical
miles or less at maximum range, and a
system reliability of about 50 percent.
The Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence,
Department of the Army, believes that
the USSR will adopt initially an opera-
'For purposes of this estimate, a "first operational
capability" is arbitrarily defined as a total of 10
prototype ICBMs in the hands of trained units
at completed launching sites; a "substantial
operational capability" is arbitrarily defined as
a total of 500 ICBMs in the hands of trained
units at completed launching sites.
tional ICBM of at least 3,800-4,500 nau-
tical miles maximum range, and that it
will further develop this weapon to the
longer-range system indicated above.
3. The date at which the USSR will have
a first operational capability with the
ICBM will depend on many factors, apart
from the over-all urgency of the program.
These factors include the extent of tech-
nical success in missile testing and the
availability of launching facilities, sup-
porting equipment, and trained perkn-
nel to operate the system. We estimate
that some time during the 0-!I
19.5.8-to_11id4944 the USSR will probably
have a first operational capability with
up to 10 prototype ICBMs, with char-
acteristics approximating those estimated
in the first sentence of Conclusion 2.2
In the belief of the Assistant Chia of Staff,
Intelligence, Department of the Army, this ini-
tial operational capability will be with an ICBM
of at least 3,800-4,500 nautical miles maximum
range.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP98-00979R000400510001-1
4. ICBMs could probably be produced,
launching facilities completed, and op-
erational units trained at a rate sufficient
to give the USSR an operational capabil-
ity with 100 ICBMs about one year after
its first operational capability date, and
with 500 ICBMs about two or at most
three years after first operational capa-
bility date.
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