MBFR WORK PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-451-6-6-8
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 17, 2010
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: August 8, 1972
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/08/17: LOC-HAK-451-6-6-8
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
TOP SECRET
w I>"-- ? `! 6040
MEMORANDUM FOR DR. KISSIN GER
FROM: Phil~Qd en ~h
SUBJECT: MBFR Work Program
INFORMATION
August 8, 1972
As a result of your remarks at the VP/SRG meeting August 3,
we have directed the Agencies to undertake the attached program of
work. It basically consists of three, parts:
-- An overall evaluation report on the options and issues which
have been examined in the MBFR study process over the last two
years.
-- Supporting papers on Warsaw Pact data once.. tainty, on
verification capabilities, mixed package options and collateral
constraints.
-- A longer term study effort to reexamine some of the basic
assumptions and elements of MBFR, such as Pact mobilization and
readiness capabilities, U.S. reinforcement capabilities and possible
improvements, alternative ways to structure optimally a 10-20%
cut in U. S. and Allied forces, and a parametric analysis of the
wargame we have been using. (This will let us test the effect of
different, probably more realistic, assumptions and scenarios. j
We plan to have the Evaluation Report completed by August 25 in
preparation for a Verification Panel meeting at the end of the month
and in order to send the analysis to NATO in early September. The
work program is attached at Tab A.
State Dept. OSD, JCS reviews
completed
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
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7 I Tim r.r
U
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON. D.G. 20506
TOP SECRET
MEMORANDUM FOR
August 7, 1972
Mr. Lawrence Eagleburger
Maj.Gen W...,D... C.r.ittenber.ger
Mr. Raymond Garthoff
Mr. Ralph McGuire
Mr. Bruce Clarke
Mr. J. David Linebaugh
SUBJECT: MBFR Work Program
Evaluation Report
We must begin work on an overall evaluation report
on MBFR -- our objectives, the underlying issues and options.
The options to be considered will include:
-- 10% symmetrical option,
20/107o stationed /indigenous symmetrical option,
--.307o symmetrical option,
-- the common ceiling option,
-- mixed package options,
variants A, B, and C,
We will also want to address some of the underlying issues affect-
ing our evaluation of the options. This should include an evaluation
of:
-- the impact of data uncertainty on the options,
-- our verification capabilities for the options,
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-- the alternative types of cuts (manpower thin out,
units, etc.) and the disposition of reduced equipment in the light of
verification capabilities and in terms of resulting risks to, and
capabilities of NATO,
-- the role of collateral constraints in the options.
This effort will draw upon previous work on the options and issues,
?n'cluding earlier -evalua-tion reports. An -outline of the -new evaluation
report will be developed by the NSC staff. There will be a meeting of
a VPWG drafting group to consider the -outline August 9. The target
for a completed interagency coordinated paper is August 25.
In this connection OJCS should re-run the dynamic analysis
of the Common Ceiling Option (Variants A, B and C) on bases
comparable to the previous analysis of symmetrical options. Addition-
ally, OSD should provide comparable static ratio analyses on the
Common Ceiling and symmetrical options. This work must be
completed by mid-August.
Supporting, Papers
To support the preparation of the evaluation report it will
be necessary to do the following studies and papers:
A. A reassessment of Warsaw Pact order of battle
intelligence which would produce a data base for MBFR planning
purposes. This will be aimed at
-- identifying areas of agreement,
reconciling differences reflected in the estimates,
-- identifying remaining areas of difference and the
reason for the differences,
-- identifying areas of uncertainty and the reasons for
the uncertainty.
-- assessing the impact of the remaining differences
and uncertainties on the options.
-- identifying the differences between resulting data
base and NATO data.
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This paper will be prepared under NSC direction with the participation
of DIA and CIA. A first draft will be due August 18.
B. Net assessment of verification capabilities in regard to
the options and reduction measures. This should include:
range of uncertainty,
method of verifiCa''ion,
-~ degree of Pact cheating before detection,
- effect of cheating on Pact capabilities,
CIA will have the responsibility for developing the initial draft by
August 14.
C. We need to pull together the analysis of mixed package
options. OSD should provide an analysis of the tank/tac nuke option
contained with OSD paper on MBFR issues of July 28. JCS should
provide an analysis of the option proposed by US CINCEUR. AGDA/
OSD should'provide an analysis of any other option that should be
considered. ACDA will be responsible for assembling a first draft
by August 11.
D. Constraints packages to go with the options should be
developed by QSD. They should be, evaluated in terms of their effect
on verification, warning, and Waraw Pact and NATO capabilities
including flexibility for force improvements and restructuring. A
first draft should be available by August 15.
Broadening our MBFR Effort
'In addition we need to work on some broader, in-depth studies
to support our MBFR effort.
A. A re-exaxninatfan of Pact buildup and mobilization rate
and readiness capability. CIA should do the first draft by the end of
September.
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B. An analysis of U.S.. reinforcement, readiness and
mobilization capabilities with a view to identifying problem areas
and providing alternative ways to improve these capabilities in
the context of MBFR. OSD should prepare a first draft by September 5.
C. An examination of alternative ways to take a 10-2076
cut in U. S. and Allied forces in a manner which would optimize NATO
military capabilities in particular its initial combat capability. OSD
should have a first draft prepared by August 26.
D. An analysis of allied order of battle data, areas of
uncertainty, the effect of a 10.20% reduction on their capabilities and
an estimate of the manner in which the allies would be likely to take
such cuts. DIA will be responsible for producing an initial draft by
September 5.
E. A parametric dynamic analysis of the base case and the
options. The changed parameters should include:
-- no buildup scenarios and extended buildup scenarios,
-~ Variations on Pact readiness after buildup.
ACDA will carry out this analysis on a comparable basis to the OJCS
analysis. Runs on the base case, and the options listed above should
be available by early October.
F
Philip A. Odeen
Director, Program Analysis
TOP SECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/08/17: LOC-HAK-451-6-6-8