MEMO TO <SANITIZED> FROM RICHARD J. KERR

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05713012
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-01415
• Publication Date: November 19, 1986

(b)(3) NOTE TO:
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Central Intelligence Agency nvotr. 011,1 11D,Pn wittn +3,v;p5
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence 3 � Ii
Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis
Directorate of Intelligence
19 November 1986
South Asia Division/NESA
I would like to send this, or a version
of it, to General Watrous, CINCPAC J-2. He
(b)(3) raised thi subject with me last week. Please
put it into message form, from me.
so, you might consider sending
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/57
Richard J. Kerr
Deputy Director for Intelligence
ir4
NOTE FOR: Deputy Director of Intelligence
The NIO for warning probably will
bring up the Indian Army Exercise during
your meeting with the DCI this morning.
The attached paper provides background (N(1)
information on the exercise,
South Asia Division/MESA O*3)
Attached:
As stated
20 NOvember 1986
This note is classified-arAN.-
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Indian Army Exercises
The Indian Army will begin its largest ever field maneuvers in January
near the Pakistani border. Although the size of this exercise--codenamed BRASS
TACKS IV--is unprecedented, we believe the exercise fits the Indian Army's
standard annual training cycle, is well designed to meet the new Chief of
Staff's goal of challenging the
and is not a prelude to war.
conservative thinking of his senior officers,
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Despite some Pakistani concern over the exercise, senior Pakistani officials
are downplaying an imminent attack. Instead
Islamabad appears to be using
BRASS TACKS IV to strengthen
its case for increased
US military support.
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The BRASS TACKS Exercises
BRASS TACKS IV will be the
final sequence in a series of four exercises
that began last summer. BRASS TACKS I and II were conducted in July and
November as command post exercises designed
communication, and logistics skills of senior
to test the administrative,
Indian Army commanders,
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We believe that
BRASS TACKS III will consist of
division
level maneuvers held sometime in December
in preparation for BRASS
TACKS
IV in January.
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BRASS TACKS IV will take place in
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the
first three months of 1987 in India's northern
Rajasthan training area.
The exercise will involve two opposing corps level forces--including the Army's
two armored divisions and its single mechanized division--consisting of about
150,000 troops, 1,500 tanks, and 500 artillery pieces. The Indian Air Force
and Navy will be conducting exercises simultaneously with BRASS TACKS IV,
including air support missions
in Rajasthan and an amphibious landing near Goa.
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Indian Intentions
BRASS TACKS IV fits the Indian Army's standard annual training cycle. The
Army normally concludes its training cycle in the months of January and
February with corps or multicorps exercises in Rajasthan. In 1982 and 1984,
these maneuvers involved about 100,000 men, including the Army's newly formed
mechanized division in 1984. The Indians also routinely prioritize rail
traffic in the Punjab, the major transit route between most Army units and the
Rajasthan training area, for military needs in the weeks preceding their
large-scale maneuvers. There was a brief exercise related disruption of Punjab
rail traffic earlier this month, but most of
this traffic already has been resumed. This disruption caused a stir in the
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press, where it was misinterpreted to mean the Indians already had begun
large-scale troop movements in the Punjab. We believe the Army will begin to
use Punjab rail lines on a prolonged basis next month to move military units.
In our judgment, BRASS TACKS IV is designed to meet the new Chief of
Staff's goal of challenging the conservative thinking of his senior officers.
Upon assuming the Chief of Staff's position last February
Gen. Sundarji has begun making major efforts to
develop the skills of his officers, especially division and corps commanders,
to keep pace with the requirements of the expanding and modernizing Indian
Army. We believe involving the mechanized division and both armored divisions
in BRASS TACKS IV is designed primarily to confront its participants,
experienced mainly in infantry operations, with the rigors of armored warfare.
War?
The preponderance of evidence so far indicates the BRASS TACKS exercises
are not a prelude to war. The Rajasthan training area is about 400km south of
the more traditional Indian invasion routes into Pakistan and, in a defensive
scenario, 600km south of the most likely Pakistani area of attack in Kashmir.
An Indian attack on Pakistan from Rajasthan would require Indian forces to
cross the widest stretch of desert between the two countries where few roads
exist. So far, an insufficient number of air defense and field artillery units
are being deployed to support combat operations and no forward consolidation of
ammunition, fuel, or other supplies is being made.
Pakistani Reaction
There is some concern in Islamabad, mainly in military circles, over the
Indian exercises its
size, its high concentration of armor, and the fact that New Delhi has yet to
notify Islamabad officially of its scheduling. Some Pakistani Army units--
including its two armored divisions--are deploying now for their annual
exercises opposite the Rajasthan training area and in Kashmir.
these deployments consistent with the normal
many border observation posts are unmanned.
training cycle and
high level Pakistani officials acknowlege they do
not believe India will launch an attack. Recent press statements by President
Zia downplay the threat to Pakistan, saying that there is no indication of an
attack. Travel plans of senior officials, including the Prime Minister's
scheduled trip to China and the Chief of Staff's present visit to the US, have
not been altered. We believe the concern expressed by some Pakistanis over
BRASS TACKS is for propaganda purposes and to strengthen Islamabad's case for
increased US military assistance. We believe New Delhi will follow previous
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practice and inform Islamabad about BRASS TACKS IV shortly before its beginning
in January.
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