METHODOLOGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01046A000800110002-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 1999
• Sequence Number: 2
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
1 11 pop=
METHODOLOGY
The index of producers equipment derived in this research aid is
based on an aggregation of individual price-weighted time series for
various categories of producers equipment. For the years 1955 through
1958 the index is based on a sample of 27 categories of producers equip-
ment and 1 category of spare parts.* The link between 1958 and 1959 is
based on a sample of 28 categories of equipment, the link between 1959
and 1960 is based on the 21 categories for which estimates are available
for both years, and the 1960-61 link is based on 18 categories of equip-
ment. The 1965 index is based on a link with 1958. In addition to the
18 categories used in the 1959-60 link, 3 additional categories for which
gross production data are available were used in the 1958-65 link. The
three additional categories are textile equipment, food processing equip-
ment,, and foundry equipment.
The methodology used in deriving estimates of value for individual
categories of equipment was as follows.
1. Metalcutting Machine Tools
The category of metalcutting machine tools was derived from physical
production of the following types of machine tools: lathes; turret lathes;
automatic and semiautomatic lathes; milling machines; gear cutting ma-
chines; boring machines; planers; slotters; broaching machines; grinding
machines; tool grinders; vertical drills; radial drills; special, special-
ized, and unit-type machine tools; and other machine tools. Production of
machine tools for each of the above classes for 1955 through 1959 is pub-
lished in Soviet handbooks. J The total production of machine tools for
1960 was reported in an official source, and production by type was
estimated by extrapolation. Production for 1961 was estimated. The esti-
mated physical production of machine tools by type in 1965 is based on
official Soviet data. J
A representative model was selected for each of the types of machine
tools for which production data are available with the exception of the
special, specialized, and unit-type category. The 1955 price of each
representative model was used to value production of the type that it
represented. Because no representative model was available for the
See Tables 3, 11, and 5, pp. 18, 20, and 21, respectively, below.
- 11 -
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
S-E-C-R-E-T
special, specialized, and unit-type category, an arbitrary-average price
of '75,000 rubles* per unit was used.
2. Metalforming Machine Tools
The category of metalforming machines tools includes the following
types of equipment: forging and drop hammers, presses, forging machines,
power shears, straightening and bending machines,-and other metalform-
ing machines. The total physicalproduction for 1955-60 is based on
official Soviet publications, and production by type for 1955 was given
in source J. Physical production for 1961 and 1965 was estimated.
Average prices for each type are taken from source 7/.
3. Metallurgical Equipment
Production data for metallurgical equipmentin metric tons are avail-
able for 1955 through 1960. Data also are available for the same period
on the subcategory of rolling mill equipment. J Production for 1961 and
1965 was estimated. An average price of 5,000 rubles (in 1955 prices)
per ton of rolling mill equipment and 3,600 rubles per ton of other
metallurgical equipment also was estimated.
4. Mining Equipment
The category of mining equipment includes the following types of
equipment: coal combines, coal cutting machines, rock loaders, and elec-
tric mine locomotives. Production data in physical units were taken from
official Soviet statistics. 2/ Weighted average 1955 prices for each type
of equipment were taken from source LO Y.
5. Petroleum Equipment
The category of petroleum equipment includes petroleum refining equip-
ment, deep well pumps, and turbodrills. Data on physical production are
published in official Soviet sources. 11 Average 1955 prices are esti-
mated.
6. Chemical Equipment
The category of chemical equipment is a gross production series that
is reported in official Soviet publications for 1956-60. The estimate
for 1955 is based on officially-reported physical production. The esti-
mates for 1961 and 1965 were made on the basis of recent trends in the
industry. 12
* Ruble values throughout this research aid are given in 1 July 1955
rubles (pre-1961 rate of exchange of 4 rubles to US $1).
- 12 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
7. Turbines
Production of turbines for 1955 through 1960, expressed in kilowatts
of capacity, is from official Soviet statistics. 13 Production for
1961 was estimated. The production plan for 1965 was announced by the
USSR. 14+ The average price per kilowatt of capacity was estimated.
8. Steam Boilers
Production of steam boilers, expressed in tons of steam per hour of
capacity, was published in official sources for 1955-59. 15 No esti-
mates for 1960 or 1965 are available. The average price per ton of
steam per hour capacity was estimated.
9. Turbogenerators, Electric Motors, and Power Transformers
Physical production data covering all types of turbogenerators, elec-
tric motors, and power transformers for 1955 through 1959 and for gener-
ators and large motors in 1960, expressed in kilowatts of capacity, are
available in official Soviet sources. 16 Average prices per kilowatt
of capacity for each type were estimated. The value of production of
small motors in 1960 and 1961 and of turbogenerators, transformers, and
all electric motors in 1961 and 1965 also was estimated.
10. Electric Bulbs
Physical production data for electric bulbs are available from offi-
cial Soviet sources. 17 The average price was estimated.
11. Industrial Electronic Equipment
The value of production of industrial electronic equipment was esti-
mated.
12. Equipment for Light Industry
The category of equipment for light industry includes carding machines
for cotton, spinning machines, reeling machines? looms, circular hosiery
automatics, industrial sewing machines, fleshing machines, tieing machines,
type-setting machines, and flatbed printing machines. Physical production
data for all the above types of equipment are available for 1955 through
1959 in official Soviet sources. 18 Average prices for each type are
estimated.
13. Civil Communications Equipment
The value of production of civil communications equipment was esti-
mated.
- 13 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
S-E-C-R-E-T
14. Construction Equipment
The category of construction equipment includes excavators, bull-
dozers, tractor scrapers, motor graders, towed graders, truck cranes,
pneumatic tire cranes, tower cranes, and motor rollers. Production data
for all of the above types of equipment are available for 1955-59 in of-
fical Soviet publications. 19 Estimates of physical production for 1960
and 1965 were based on Soviet publications. 20 Data for 1961 were esti-
mated. Weighted average prices for each type, net of trucks and tractors,
are from source Li j.
15. Agricultural Machinery
The scope of the category of agricultural machinery was estimated. Re-
ported physical production by type of equipment was taken, for most years,
from Soviet handbooks. Data for the remaining years was estimated. Rep-
resentative prices for each type also were -estimated.
16. 'Tractors
The production of tractors by model was estimated. Average 1955
prices, by model, also were estimated.
17: Motor Vehicles
The category of motor vehicles includes trucks, passenger automobiles,
and buses. Physical production data for the total production in 1955-60
of trucks, passenger automobiles, and buses are from official Soviet
publications. 22 Production by model was based on source-/. Prices
by model were estimated.
18. Mainline Railroad Equipment
The category of mainline railroad equipment consists of individual
subseries for steam locomotives, diesel locomotives, electric locomotives,
freight cars, and passenger cars. The total production data covering the
years 1955 through 1959 for these subseries and for production of locomo-
tives in 1960 are available in official Soviet sources. 4J Prices and
production by model were estimated.
19. Civil Aircraft
Value of -production of civil aircraft was estimated. Valuation was
made by analogy with US experience and on the basis of learning curves.*
The estimates exclude the value of electronic equipment but include the
estimated value of initial spares.
For an explanation of the use of the learning curve, see L5J.
- 14 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
S-E-C-R-E-T
20. Merchant Shipbuilding
The category of merchant shipbuilding is based on estimates of de-
liveries. Estimates were made of the average cost per ton for maritime,
fishing, and non-self-propelled inland vessels and of the cost per horse-
power for self-propelled inland vessels. These unit costs were multiplied
by the physical volumes of deliveries to obtain value estimates. The
estimates also include the value of repairs to maritime vessels. Because
of the erratic pattern of the index, the estimates were smoothed by use
of a 2-year moving average. It is believed that this smoothed index gives
a better approximation to production in each year than does the unadjusted
series based on deliveries.
21. Equipment Component of Capital Investment
The equipment component of capital investment for the years 1955
through 1959 was estimated as follows:
Year
Billion 1955
Rubles
1955
53.6
1956
66.3
1957
73.6
1958
82.8
1959
94.9
22. Instruments (Except Electronic), Textile Equipment, Food Processing
Equipment, and Foundry Equipment
Data on these categories, which were used in the 1958-1965 link, were
taken from Seven Year Plan announcements, except that the 1965 data for
instruments are based on a later estimate of probable production. 26 No
information is available on the scope of the subcategories of food proc-
essing, textile, and foundry equipment. The original data on instruments
include optical-mechanical instruments and apparatus, electrical and
electronic measuring instruments, computer and mathematical machines,
instruments for the control of thermal-energy processes, instruments for
measuring mechanical magnitudes, instruments for navigation and piloting,
and instruments of time (except watches and clocks). Cameras, X-ray
equipment, and medical instruments are excluded. 27 Because industrial
electronic equipment is included in another category, the estimated value
of production of this equipment was deducted from the total for instru-
ments. The extension of the data for instruments to the years 1959 and
1960 is based on the 1960 report on plan fulfillment. 28 The data for
1961 represent a plan figure. 29
- 15 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
S-E-C-R-E-T
If the data on industrial electronic equipment are added to the data
on the remaining types of equipment in the sample for the period 1955-58,
the index for 1959, 1960, 1961, and 1965 is increased slightly, as shown
by the following comparison:
Index (1958 = loo)
1958 1959 1960 1961 1965
Index of producers equipment
(from Table 5, p. 15, above) 100 114+ 12I 138 210
Index of producers equipment,
excluding instruments 100 113 120 -132 206
The addition of the data on food processing', textile, and foundry
equipment to the category of industrial equipment decreases the ratio
between the indexes for 1958 and 1965, as shown in the following tabula-
tion:
Index (1958 = loo)
1958
1965
Index of industrial equipment,
excluding instruments* (from
Table 3, p. 12, above)
100
265
Index of industrial equipment,
excluding instruments, food
processing, textile, and
foundry-equipment
100
278
23. Spare Parts for Motor Vehicles, Tractors, and Agricultural Machinery
Centralized production of spare parts for motor vehicles, tractors,
and agricultural machinery amounted to slightly more than 1 billion rubles
in 1950. By mid-1958, production had risen to an annual rate of more than
5 billion rubies. 30/
Planned production in 1960 was 10.3 billion rubles, / about 1.16
billion greater than in 1959, / which would make production in 1959
* The category of instruments is excluded from the category of industrial
equipment because there is no satisfactory method-for allocating produc-
tion between industrial and nonindustrial equipment.
- 16 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
S-E-C-R-E-T
about 9.14 billion rubles. Production of spare parts for motor vehicles
and tractors in 1959 was about 50 percent greater than in 1958 and for
agricultural machinery was about 30 percent greater. It was esti-
mated, on the basis of the above data, that production of spare parts
for motor vehicles, tractors, and agricultural machinery was about 6.4
billion rubles in 1958.
It is expected that production of spare parts for motor vehicles will
triple between 1958 and 1965. J For the purpose of projection, it is
estimated that production of spare parts for motor vehicles, tractors,
and agricultural machinery combined by 1965 will increase to approxi-
mately 235 percent of production in 1958.
Estimates for 1955, 1956, 1957, and 1961 were derived by graphic
methods.
_ 17 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
111 N O ?d p0 - M 0
OO\ O ONO H
O q U N Uri rd O a) ri U
+~ N ' q 3 b a) Sa ?rl a) a) N A a) m a) a) a)
14 8
-H 0 4b, 10, N P, -ri
+1 LA P,
Approved For Rele~se 1949)b9'/27: CIA-RD '79S 1646,00 8681'1 2-0
I
W
fb
fi
L(1
o 9
ti-I
,~ H y~y O
I U
Lr\
rl
Pi
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
Cl]
U)
-I~
rl
A
00 00 0 ? ? 0 0 0 0
00 0
co t` U
C\j -\ m z t IN co 110 00
CU
O
1 d~ d~4C4~dd~C~d~4 ~Q
z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z 0
O
r-I
H
00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 p 0
O \00 \1O N 111 clm N -Lr\ U-\ u ti cO -0 0 -f 0\ _ 0
N
IMM M L Mr1 N CO M 0
CO N M NU\ UI\ ~
U" -=I- N co H N W ~p N N N H moo co N O\
N H L 0 Lc\ N O\O\OO \O M ON H MH N-
N--1- Irmo 0 MOO. u,OOJ\D LC ()H O
\O M (Y)-:t M r-i N N M H M O\ LIN N
m i M H H
Lr\ \0 0 L/N N-7 0 0 N LIN O\ O\ C- 0 N pO
O cO CC) O\ N \O CO M N H 0 -t H H O\
r1 O\ N N-~' co - \O uN N N M 0 - N
~N mmN M m 0 M N L OJ (y) I
'
N
01\ Iq co
Il N N H N M U 1'`) 0 N r-1 r-I M
O H t- u ~\O -N# Lli M N uON CO M OH
ON H00 N m u\ NN N (NV N-I N
O\ N N ?; c, Y) N-- -- u uN ~ 0 0 ~\\'D N 0 0 OD
N a0 uN m ON\O -t u\ u\ M ROD O\ O \O N O
r-I N r-I N r-I M M H -# N \O
N H H H N
M H
00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O
O 000000000000 0
u\ O ^ m 0 M N N M\O 0
ON 0 u\O H U\m 000 O\NUN N LI\-
M M M.r 0\U H mmm H L-
m N O ri
0a)
1~ 41
m 'd 0 0 c3 H r -H N U 0 02 0
H (1) 1 4-
H P4 4-) 4~
q _ aD__1; .5 +'
(a CO m m Fi ?ri 0 Si Cd
1 c~
rG N O 'H O qNq PI 4t cd q '1 ?~ u rd 1)i o
+cd) 4 Cd H NN #i cd cd o O ri o P, 'd N ?+C~ H
O 0
m \O-P
O a) Si -ri
O
N is cu Ul
O
CON Fa ?rHi
U N U M P N C0
N OD
fi O +++-
rj ~Np O U
-N ct3 rd
U) F G i
cc md^
O s-i 'd 0
O 4i~Q) 4
O OO
'0
O'\ - P
H G\ 3 bD ,-I
~I~do ?r,i
y~{ rl O
4- M
Cd cca d
N N N C N ~j
PI
Pd
N N m m U.)
CQ 4 a) a)
4' 40 ^
L N m ?r N
?~ r-I N O ,O r-I
SAO 11
O F- \O
ui -3 NH A N
U -\,D O m
-11
rd o M \00 ?r1 M
1
?H 4-i H 1 ,91,
0
N m 0 0 uN 0
[0d
t-a'd - N N O-\ M N
-+' CH+
Iwd U cad C) U Ld
N F-i
N N rl I S-i
?r7 N N Fi Fi N
~ P4 11
i-1 d N d
N m 'd rd CO 'd
-p +~ -S+ 0 -N
N - cdO?rii
0 Cdd3rdW,3
s m a) rd
Q
o )
mH
N m crm1r~~ + m m
FTOWdW
cd A U 'd N 4i
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
o6dd~QQ4C O
zzzzzzzz ~?-~
r
ocaaacac?
zzzzzzzz
o?4??
zzzz
Odddd
zzzz
o' 0 0 N r-I H 0 M OM~ 0 0 -l gl 00 01
N M H H dry
OOJOHOOHNO O~ O~ON.-7 I 00 01 N-II
01
O O O O O O O O
rC-
04t-21A I
00I
OC)H000000 1 NOM NH N0 I 00 01 ~II
M
O) OGINOOOOOO OHri0 ~I ~I III
8 N0000000 r~M1I ~O-~'MO W1~0
8-0888888 $ 8 8$
%
N
'~ 1'NNO I rq-~ ~ 8 O r-1 0 0 N M +~ O
41) 0 P%
a n
Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
 Approved For Release 1999/09/27 : CIA-RDP79SO1046A000800110002-0
H
rn
ri
z z z z zzz zzzzzz z z
u,
?o