AIR FORCE CONTRIBUTION TO GMAIC FOR SIC ESTIMATE ON SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00961A000700090006-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 6
• Content Type: REPORT

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Air Force Contribution to GMAIC
for
SIC Estimate on Science Technology
Terms of Reference - Appendix C, 1A. 1 & 5
USAF review(s) completed.
SEC
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Present and Future Capabilities in Military Research and Development as
Related to Offensive Missile and S cscee Systems
General
Science. as are all other aspects of support or potential support to
means of production, Is a tool of the state that is used to further the Soviet
ideological goals.. The tasks set for Soviet science are those that will most
profitably enhance the capabilities of the military and industry. In turn,
the capabilities are the means for expansion of the Soviet sphere of
influence.
The Soviet hierachy has expended sizeable amounts of effort and
resources to form a solid base for the expansion of science, and, for
planning purposes, is relying heavily upon the anticipated results. Many
of the expected results have been isolated, and have been handed to the
scientific community as task assignments.
The attention and resources lavished upon science include the
establishment of a social prestige level second only to that of the Communist
Party itself, and the provision of superior living standards to the members
of the scientific community. Further, many of the members are allowed to
remain semi-aloof from the political demands that normally require repeated
demonstrations and assertions of loyalty.
As an adjunct to the long range support planned for science, the Soviets
have carefully alinged their educational systems toward providing steadily
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increasing numbers of trained scientists and engineers, and have included
new and expanded research facilities as goals of their current Seven Year
Plan. As examples, a 35% increase in the number of trained scientists
and engineers is planned for accomplishment by 1967, as is the construction
of some 190 new research facilities, including two new "science cities"
being established in areas east of the Ural Mountains to undertake
expansion and exploitation of scientific resources throughout the Soviet
land mass.
Physical Sciences in Support of Missile and Space Capabilities
Because of a lack of some types of equipment, much of the Soviet
work appears to lag that of the U. S. The Soviets are, however, believed
to be on a par, or are leading such areas as celestial mechanics, meteoric
research, the study of variable stars and asteroids, and in some areas of
supportive mathematics.
While the U. S. has made significant practical contributions in celestial
mechanics, the Soviets appear to have developed new general principles
pertaining to the motion of bodies with varying mass. Also, the Soviet work
in nonlinear mechanics and general mechanics is considerably ahead of
similar work in the U. S. , and is expected to have increased application
in the investigation of stability of orbits, and in the development of control
s ~atemso
Through radio astronomy, the Soviets have, since 1947, delved
into the investigation of cosmic rays, magnetohydrodynamics, turbulence.
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polarization, and interstellar magnetic fields. Despite considerable
interest in these areas in the U. S, , the Soviets are probably world leaders
in this type of research, and it is believed that some of this Soviet work
is directly aimed at the isolation and ultimate use of new sources of energy.
Competent Soviet work in several other areas has been noted
(geodesy, study of the moon and the planets, general studies in gas dynamics,
and some work in cybernetics and automation).
Soviet Advanced Research
ao General
The broad Soviet national policies and plans are oriented toward,
and will become increasingly dependent upon, technological advancement
for the extension of Soviet influence. The development of contemporary
air weapons undoubtedly continues to be a necessary part of the Soviet
plans. A clear military superiority (not yet attained) is required, however,
before the undertaking of any actions that may require the exercise of the
Soviet long range strike arm.
The Soviets lead the U. S. in the system development of
powerful rocket boosters, and are expected to increase this lead time
insofar as functional applications in space through the use of the boosters
are concerned. The estimates of future Soviet rocket capabilities
represent the probably extensions in engineering that will be attained.
Only limited intelligence is available concerning_ advanced Soviet applied
research that will allow continued growth of Soviet rocketry after the
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the technical growth limits of the present design practices are reached.
This is to say that the rocket design concepts now receiving the Soviets
attentions do have limits of growth potential, and that intelligence has not
yet detected significant research gains associated with more advanced
development of rocket technology. There is, however, some evidence
of Soviet research directed at more distant propulsion systems, such as
electron or plasma engines, etc. The significance of the Soviet position
lies in the fact that new design concepts will require several years of
development before they may be incorporated into the operational. side of
rocket technology, but the expected level of associated research and testing
has not yet been detected.
It is believed that the Soviets have recognized this potential
deficiency, and that the recent organizational realignments and the
establishing of a very powerful committee to insure coordination between
research and hardware development were undertaken to avoid reaching
a status wherein engineering and technological advances must halt to
await progress in research. Further, the desirability or requirement
for a clearly decisive warfare capability will very likely also prove to
ba dependent upon science, through the development to advanced weapon
concepts - weapons not directly related to aircraft or missiles. Indications
have been noted that tend to confirm the existence of such projects. There
is no evidence, however, of the present existence of a superior Soviet
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advanced weapon, nor is there intelligence that has been recognized as
indicative of a significant scientific accomplishment that would predict
the near-future successful development of such a weapon.
b. Advanced Weapon Concepts
Soviet research that will provide necessary background knowledge
for several advanced warfare techniques is being actively supported. Because
of the nature of this research, three new concepts for defense in warfare
appear suspect:
1. The use of high intensity electromagnetic
radiation directed to an aerospace target.
2. The use of beams of particles accelerated to
relativistic speeds and directed to an aerospace target.
3. The use of plasma "bodies", generated and
accelerated to a target, or generated for use as a coupling
mechanism to 'acilitate destruction through concentrated
electromagnetic energy (as in technique 1, above).
The Soviet research efforts associated with the radiated. particle,
and plasma investigations are being conducted in more than a dozen
laboratories, and have attracted scientific contributions from several
Russian scientists internationally recognized as world leaders in science.
The Soviet installation of experimental equipment designed to test one or
more of these weapon concepts under simulated operational conditions
is expected to take place before the end of the period covered by this
estimate.
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One additional advanced technique that is receiving Soviet
attention is experimentation with ionospheric modification. The practical
significance of this Soviet research is the extension and control of
communications, ECM radiation, and possibly eventual selective control
of the intensity and composition of the solar radiation reaching the earth.
Production Techniques
Cybernetics
Cybernetics is of great importance in the Soviet effort toward
automation of industry. In recent years. cybernetic devices have been
developed with increasing rapidity. Extremurn regulators have been
developed to make possible the automation of complicated technological
processes which otherwise would not be practical.
The Soviets are developing "learning machines" for controlling
industrial processes but, evidently, have not yet applied them. It is
expected, however, that controlling machines of this type will be introduced
experimentally in the near future.
in the field of automation of process-type industries (e. g.
petroleum refining) the Soviets will probably solve most of their problems
of control, not by the use of electronic means, but rather by using simple,
inexpensive reliable pneumatic and hydraulic devices, many of which are
already available. The reliance upon these will greatly facilitate Soviet
introduction of cybernetic devices into practical industrial automation and
,:trill aid in creating systems of high reliability.
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The future of the Soviet industrial automation program probably
will rely on the widespread use of cybernetic means, from simple
searching and memory devices to special computing and learning machine a,
Much of the latter equipment will utilize "building block" techniques for
maximum interchangeability of parts.
Space Sciences
The character of the Soviet space program. as evidence by the
number and scope of experiments thus far conducted, reveals an early
interest in manned space flight. It is clear that the Soviet scientists and
technicians systematically set about identifying the problems associated
with space flight. accumulating the necessary pertinent data and applying
the solutions to the problems in a practical program aimed at manned space
flight. The singularity of purpose in accomplishing definite objectives in
an orderly progression also reveals that the space program is well
conceived, exceptionally well directed, and boldly executed. Functionally
the space program can be categorized into five classes of activity:
1. Vertically Fired Rockets
In general, vertical rockets have been one of the most extensively
used research vehicles for investigation of near-earth space. This program
has furthered the development of stabilization control, orientation equipment,
and recovery techniques; the determination of biophysical parameters for
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man-in-space; the testing of scientific instrumentation and orbital vehicle
systems, and the collection of environmental data. No new capabilities
in space craft systems have been recently revealed by vertical firings, and
it is expected that only occasional vertical firings will be made in the future,
as greater use will be made of earth satellites to gather data.
2. Non-Orbiting Surface-to-Surface Systems
While these systems have not been positively identified as having
been used in the Soviet space program. it is believed likely that some of
the firings currently classed as ICBM research and development may have
had as their primary objective the testing of space vehicles (re-entry capsule).
3. Earth Satellite Systems
These vehicles have been used for the scientific study of the
upper atmosphere of the earth and near-earth space. They.have been used
to conduct a broad range of biomedical studies on the affects of cosmic
conditions upon life; and of equal importance. they have provided a
psychological impact upon the world in that they created an image of the
USSR as the foremost nation in space. Prior to the manned conquest of
cis-lunar space, it is expected that the Soviets will need to place satellites
into highly elliptical orbits to determine the detailed composition of the
Van Allen radiation belts. It is expected that they will orbit large
satellites equipped to make spectroscopic examinations of the son, planets,
and other astronomical structures, to determine the extent to which they
influence the space environment.
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4. Lunar ace Craft
It is believed that the Soviets will continue to use and improve
their current Lunar probe capability. Such endeavors may include lunar
satellites, lunar soft landings, lunar soft landings and return with actual
samples of the lunar surface, lunar exploration by unmanned vehicles.
and finally true lunar exploration by manned vehicles.
5. Interplanetary Systems
It is expected that the early interplanetary probbs will be
instrumented for the investigation of the physical parameters of interplanetary
space and the planets Mars and Venus. Included will be studies of the
solar atomosphere and radiations, interplanetary matter, gravitational and
electromagnetic fields, solar system distances, and how the properties of
interplanetary space are affected by the sun, the solar system itself, and
by sources from without the solar system.
The Soviet capability to combine extreme accuracy of optical
observations with, apparently, a minimum loss time in the transmission
of tracking, command and control data to and from the coordinating -
cow-puting - control center is sufficient to accomplish any space mission
=AtUn the cavabilities of their propulsion systems during the 196J:- 1971
Mini period. Evidence is available on the existence of electronic equipment
?hich is suitable for the detection of a "dark" (non-cooperative) satellite*
it is also estimated that the Soviets have the capability of maintaining
surveillance over a fairly large number of space objects.
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The Soviet approach to space communications has been simple and
direct, utilizing existing reliable transmission methods along with off-the-
shelf equipment. Miniaturization has not been a prime requireme nt because
of the large propulsion capability of their rockets. Advanceunts in com-
munication capabilities are likely to be realized by improvement of equip-
ment rather than introduction of new or novel techniques. Such improverants
will include more extensive use of transistors, parametric amplifiers,
improved antenna systems. more snesitive receivers, and power sources
2
with higher capacity and efficiency.
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Space systems which could have potential military applications
include Space Plane (a single-stage-to-orbit, recoverable, aerodynamic
vehicle powered by a hyperjet, malticycle, air breathing prppuision system)
earth satellites and manned glide type vehicles.
It is believed that the USSR is not capable of achieving Space
Plane during the period of this estimate.
The Soviets are presently capable of placing 10, 000 to 12, 000 pounds
into a 300 mile orbit and could develop a workable, orbital bombardment
satellite within the next one to three years, depending upon the degree of
effort put into the development. They are estimated to be capable of
orbiting manned or unmanned. maneuverable earth satellites from 50 to
100 tons on individual launches in the 1967-1970 time periods
By the 1967-1970 time period the Soviets will have the technical
capability to develop manned, advanced performance, winged vehicles,
which could have reconnaissance, support and/or weapon delivery capabilities.
It is important to recognize that any Soviet space development,
manned or unmanned, regardless of the guise under which it is prosecuted,
.has potential military application. For this reason the amount of effort
devoted to any particular system will be determined by the current
military requirements.
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