ESTIMATED POPULATION OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC AND NATO COUNTRIES SELECTED YEARS, 1938-1975

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81S00999R000100180001-5
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• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 29, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 22, 1960
• Content Type: REPORT

Estimated Population of the Sino-Soviet Bloc and NATO Countries,
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Estime.ted lbpulOiok. of the Sino-Soviet Bloc
and NId) Countries
Seleeted Years,
l93G-1975
SoLr,cES Am, NOTES
1938, prover and postwar bo1. n lariesa : US Btareau of the Census %
Eetiz ates & ,ad Projections for Selected Countries 19 5 to 1 ,
~,. -.. -.. no (? teaber 21, 1957.
internaationhl Populatican . eportsi, Series 1'm91r ,
1945: Eatimate3..
1950-1959: Estimated. The census of January 15, 1959, was used w, tte
base. Officially reported birth rates for the period were aee~ptte4,
but reported death rates- were adjusted upward by about 15 perc?-ct..
This adjustment stems from the fact that ege-spi".Ific mortality
rates for 1.953 were so low as to suggest under re latra`siou of d etathe,
particularly at the older ages.
lg60-1975: Eetimated. Projection based on the assumptions that saartality
will deelitae; that fertility will remain at the 1958 level (grono
reproduction rate a 138); and that there will be no net migrat_.io a.
F,t:ropeen Satellites
1.938: United Naiionee Mont l+lY Balletin of Statiaties, January 1958-
1945 sue. 1950-1958: t1nited- Nations, A n~.'?h v Bulletin of Staatletii s,
January 1960.
1959-1975: Estimated. Projection tamed on the eseuuraptiOL that moeta.l..ity
will decline; that fertility will remain constant at the 1950 1? 5
level ( as reproduetion rate : 250); and that there will be re-' net
-migration.
3-938, 1 var boundaries; 19115; 1950.,1956: `reentraln Stati,sticbe 1k,a
avleniye Fri Ministel elLiye Suvet, Statisticheski lzvvveatiyao
(St :tist~].c-al News), vol. 111, nos. 2-3, 1959, p. 5
1938, postwar boundaries: A1f5 lure" of the Census., Population Estimates
and. Projketions for acted Countries 19 Ito x f 1of~1
kbpulation Reports, Se 1.Ce~ P-9 , ate. , October 21, 1957.
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1959-1975: Based on projection (B) given in tS Bureau of the Censua,
Projections oz' the Population of Bu] eria# Bar Abe and Sex: .59.-12766.
.
ros
International Population Reports, Series P-91, no. , may 1-G..-75"59.
Projection series (B) '_e based on the assumptions that mortality
will decline; that fertility will remain constant at the 1956 level
(gross reproduction rate - 115); and that there will be no net
migration,
Czechoslovakia:
1938, prewar boundaries: Based on a figure of 15,263,399 for January 1, 1938,
given in PAblf oration No. 74 of the Social institute of the Czechoslovak
Republic, T enty (ears of Social Welfare in the Czechoslovak he,ublic
(1938), P. 9.
1938, postwar boundaries: Bstimated. The population at the end_of 1937 is dr
reported to have ben 1k,447,000 (see Statnf t?ad Statisticky, Stati'sticka
Rocenka Rep blikceskostlovenskd 1958, (Statistical 'yearbook of the
Czechoslovak Rub lie 195L;), Prague) 195 3, p? 7. The natural. increase
during the period 1935 to 1937 is reported to have been about 50,000
annually. A population of 14,603,000 for 1938 also is reported in
Urite3. Nations, +jonthl rBulletin of Statistics, January 1958.
1945 and 1950-1957: Statni tfi d Statisticky, 22. Cite, PO 56?
1958-1959: Statni Uarad Statistick!y, Statisticke Zdvr, (Statistical
Re rte), no. 11, 1959?
1960-1975: Based on projection (B) given in t Bureau of the Census,
Fro ections of its pozulation of Cr.eehosiovakis, By Age and Sex:
~_1 7b, International Population Reports, Series P-91, no. 9,
December 23, 1959. Projection series (B) is based on the assumptions
that mortality will decline; that fertility will remain constant
at the 1958 level (gross reproduction rate - 125); and that there
will be no net migration.
East Ge'LTUMY
1938, prewar boundaries; and 1950-1958: This figure represents the
population of the present territory of East Germany plus the former
German territory now under Palish and USSR administration. The
number, shown solely for convenience, was derived by subtracting
the 1938 population of the Federal, Republic plus West Berlin from
the 1938 population of prewar Germany.
1938, postwar boundaries Staatliche Zenlralverwaltung f`ur Statistik
Statistisehos ahrbu.ch d4r Deutaehen Demokratischen Republik, 153
'
Statistica.
i.Yearbook for the German Democratic Re blic 1
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1945: Estimated on the basis of a population of 18,057,000 reported:
for midyear 1946 (Ibid., p. 7), on reported birth:, and deathe in
1946, and on an adjustment for unrecorded migration from Poland.
1959-1975: Estimated. Projection based on the assumptions that
mortality will decline; that fertility will remain constant at the
1958 level (gross reproduction rate z 105); and that net migration
will declir.,e. Me assumed numbers of net out-migrants are: 1959,
137,500; 1960, 125,000; 3.961, 112,500; 1962, 100,000; 1963, 87,500;
1964, 75,000; 1965, 62,500; 1966, 50, OO4; 1967, 37,500; 1968, 25,000;
and :.969, 1.2,500. It was assumed that there would be no net migration
in 1970 and later.
~fumar~:
1933, 1945, and. 1950-1957: LYS Bureau of the Census, The Population of
8 , by Jacob S. Siegel, International Population Statistics
Reports, P-90, no. 9, table 6. The figure for 1945 is not an of: ie..ial
figure, but was adjusted to account more carefully then do official
data for the postwar migrations which occurred.
1958-1 , s
959: K~z,pom3ti StatisssCikai Hivs,tal Statisztikazi Havi Ka"zlet) ~en k,
(Moabthly Statistical Eall,etin), no. 1, 196-0, p.
1960-1975: Based on projection (D) given in Us Bureau of the Censvis,
Projections of the Fti sat ion of h'-: , and Sex: jog-_
1~ 76
International Population Reports, Series P-91, no. 7, July 29, 19 .
Projection series (D) is based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline; that fertility will decline from its 1950-1955 level
(gross re;Xoluction rate. = 130) until 1966 (when the gross reproduction
rate will stabilize at 13-0); and that there will be no net mig:?a,%ion.
1938, prewar boundaries: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.
January 1:988. ....._.?.,....~ ..~-.__.~_~...y.~
1938, postwar boundaries: Based on an officially reported population of
32,100,000 for January 1, 1939, and a natural increase rate of 10.7
persons per 1,000 population reported for 1938.
1945: Estimated. It is not known precisely what population movent,a
occurred in Poland between 1945 and the date of the census in February
194C. The population enumerated in 1946 was 23.9 million. The
Statle4ical Yearbook of tolanda 1 , (PP. 28-30), gives sosae d to
on the movement of population from the West into Poland and between
Poland and areas of the USSR. Data on the transfer of Germans from
Poland, on the other hand, begin only in 1946. If only the data
which are available are utilized, the estimate of Poland's maidvear
1945 population is approximately 23 million, This figure should be
higher by the au)ount of 1resttiaerd movement from the Western Territories
of Poland, 'which was probably 2 million persons or more between
July 1, 1945 and February 1946. The figure of 25.0 million used
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3.950--1958: Based on figures reported in alowny Urzad Statyetyezny Poik_j j
Rzeezypospolite3 Iudowej, Rocznik Sta-tyst rcznJ1258, tetist .cal
yesrbook~ 1?586, p. 2.
1959-1976: Based on projection (C) given in US Bureau of the Census,
o actions of thepo ].atioaof Poland, By Age and Sex: 195$- 9 1,
international Population Reports, Series P-91, nos 6, May 1y, 1959.
Projection series (C) is based on the assumptions that mort lity
will decline; that fertility will decline from its 1950-1556 level
(gross reproduction rate 180) until 1966 (when the gross reproduction
rate will stabilize at 160); and that there will be no net migration.
'J
1938, prewar bouuadaries: ingtitutul Central de StatisticsV, "omunicari
statistics (Statistical Reports), no. 8, August 15, 1947, p. 7.
1938, postwar boundaries; 1945; and 1950-1956: Directia Centralsv de
Statistic1, Anuarul Statistic al RFR 195$, (Statistical yearbook
of the g- 19 `; PP. 7
1957-1958: United Rations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, January 1.
1959-1975: Estimated, Projection based on the assumptions that mortality
will decline; that fertility will remain constant at the 1958 leve*l
(gross reproduction rate z 130); and that there will be no net
m.-Lgration.
c omimunist China:
1938, 1945 and 1950-1953: Estimated. The census of June 30, 1953, was
used as the base. Be-cause of inconeisteneies between the officially
announced population totals and officially announced birth and
death rates, the population estimates were based on the following
assumed average annual vital. rates:
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Rate of Increase
19.38-19443
42