TRENDS IN TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE USSR AND THE FREE WORLD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000200350004-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 8, 1998
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: July 16, 1954
• Content Type: IM

Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000200350004-1
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
TRENDS IN TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE USSR
AND THE FREE WORLD
CIA/RR IM-388
16 July 1954
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS,,, TITLE 18, USCG SECS.
793 A 791i, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
II. Consumer Goods Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
III. Trade Agreements and Reported Orders... . . . . . . . . 5
IV. Soviet Gold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
V. Technical Assistance and Loans. . . . . . . . . . . 9
Appendix
1. General Commodity Composition of Soviet Imports
from the Free World, 1950-53 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2. General Commodity Composition of Soviet Exports
to the Free World, 1950-53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
3. Soviet Imports from the Free World, 1952-53 . . . . . . . 7
4. Soviet Exports to the Free World, 1952-53 . . . . . . . . 10
Chart Following Page
Percentage Distribution of Major Soviet Imports
from the Free World, 1950-53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
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CIA/RR IM-388
(ORR Project 42.331)
S-E-C-R-E-T
TRENDS IN TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE USSR
AND THE FREE WORLD
Summary
In its trade with the Free World the USSR has traditionally
exchanged its primary products for capital goods and industrial raw
materials. After 1950 the composition of Soviet imports from the
Free World tended to shift from capital goods to somewhat larger
proportions of food and industrial raw materials. This shift may
be explained by a combination of factors, including an imposition of
trade controls by the West, increased domestic production of capital
goods formerly imported, increased intra-Bloc trade, and, more
recently, the announced emphasis on consumer goods imports.
During the past year the USSR has continually pointed out its
intentions of increasing imports of consumer goods. An analysis of
incomplete data** indicates that the USSR does intend to purchase
increased amounts of consumer goods, mainly food. Trade agreements
and known orders, however, indicate a continuing desire on the part
of the USSR to secure a wide variety of capital goods from the Free
World. In the foreseeable future the USSR apparently does not intend
to increase imports of consumer goods at the expense of the procure-
ment of capital goods abroad. The relative scarcity in the Soviet
import program of both manufactured consumer goods and capital
equipment destined for use in consumer goods industries confirms the
view that the USSR intends to implement its consumer goods program
only marginally through imports from the Free World.
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of 10 June 1954.
** Complete data on commodity composition of trade with the Bloc are
not available for the period after 1 July 1953.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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S-E-C-R-E-T
I. Introduction.
Since 1950 the percentage of value of food products and indus-
trial raw materials imported by the USSR from the Free World has
increased, while the percentage of value of machinery ad transport
equipment has declined. (See the Chart* and Table 1**.) These
figures, however, should be used with caution. First, the value of
total imports increased by 60 percent between 1950 and 1952. Con-
sequently,'although the percentage of total Soviet imports of
machinery and transport equipment dropped from 41 percent to 27 per-
cent from 1950 to 1952, the dollar value of the machinery and
transport equipment impor--led remained about the same during that
period. Second, the price increases between 1950 and 1952,
especially in basic food and industrial raw materials, would mean
that Soviet imports of these categories, although increasing in
dollar value, would not have shown a proportionate increase in
physical terms.
In fact, after allowing for price level increases, it is proobable
that the recent physical level of Soviet food imports is not sub-
stantially in excess of the immediate prewar average. In addition,
the area and population being served today is substantially larger
than the prewar Soviet area and population, so that the present per
capita physical volume of food imports is not likely to be in excess
of prewar levels.
Soviet exports to the West during 1950-52 followed a relatively
constant pattern. Food, wood, and furs, in that order, as shown in
Table 2***, were the mos1 important items in terms of current value
exported by the USSR in his period. Food exports increased each
year, while wood and fur3, though maintaining their positions relative
to each other, claimed a smaller percentage of the total yearly export.
Incomplete data for 1953-54 indicate that although traditional exports
continue at a high level, the exports of mineral fuels -- especially
coal and petroleum products -- have been increasing.
Events subsequent tc the death of Stalin on 5 March 1953 offer no
firm basis for a belief that Soviet foreign trade policy has under-
gone a fundamental change. It appears that the trade policy is geared
Following p? 2.
Table 1 follows on p. 3?
Table 2 follows on p. 4.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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S-E-C-R-E-T
CHART
Percentage Distribution A/of Major Soviet Imports from the Free World
1950-53
1.950 1951
a. Based on current value, Tables 1 and 2.
b. First 6 months only.
Machinery and Transport Equipment -
Rubber, Textiles, and Manufactures -
Food
Wood, Cork, and Manufactures
Complete Information Unavailable
S-E-C-R-E-T
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