REVIEW OF THE SOVIET BLOC COPPER POSITION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01149A000400040006-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: May 18, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

-~ya tir
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US OFFICIALS ONLY
RE IEW OF THE SOVIET BLOC COPPER 1 )SITION
CIA/RR MP U3
18 may 1954
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING
THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF ZIE UNITE) STATES WI HIN
ZIE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18,, USC,,
SECS. 793 AND 791, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION
OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUMiORIZED PERSON
IS PROHIBITED BY LAW0
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ^
^ DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2 .?
DATE: REVIEWER> I1 ! a ..~
2 1 MAY 1980
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Report;
Cory .NOa 22
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CL&' MP-113
(O Pr-:3ect 24-321)
Review of zas soviet J 1oo Comer Position
TAffiE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Suction 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
section I
Section 6
Section 7
Suction 8
Section q
Section 10
Section 11
Section 12
Soo X13
Section '11a
Section 15
Unique Properties of Copper of Strategic Significance
Military Use of Copper
Substitutability for Copper
Sion Plan Goals and Production
Copper Production Problems
Copper Procurement Through Trade With the Free World
In raaOrbit Trade
The General Use Pattern in the Soviet Bloc
Copper 1equireints in the Soviet Bloc
Indications of Copper Shortages
Reasons and Effects of Shortages
Reserves Maintained by the Soviet Bloc
Purpose of Reserves
Adjustments Forced on the Bloc by Present Controls
The Trend of Bloc Imports if Controls an Relaxed
Section 16 Effect on China of Relaxing Import Controls in Respect to
the European satellites and the USSR
Section 17 Contributions of Copper Imports to the Military Potential of
the Bloc
An Estimate of the Magnitude of Soviet Efforts to Obtain
coppers 193 pril 1954.
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REVIEW OF THE SOVIET BLOC OOPPk t POSITION
Among the tonnage metals, copper ranks next to iron and steel as a
critical component of a national ecomzr. It is correspondingly an important
article of trade and particularly so on an international basis where national
deficiencies are involved or can be satisfied. The utilization of copper
is a key factor to both electric and electronic developments in modern
preparations for war and in industry. As such, its availability is both
a limit to and a measure of a military and industrial expansion.
In the Soviet Blocs copper plays an essential part. in the political
and military objectives of the USSR. In a country which has no, history
of substantial secondary accumulation by ultimate consumers of this metal
and which will probably reach not much more than minimum production needs
within the relatively near future, aw timely acquirement of quantities
of this commodity may have a key significance in the turn of international
events.
The likelihood of military action based on realistic planning of
an aggressor nation depends on its confidence in its economy to meet not
only the direct military items essential to a brief campaign but to swain
a fairly prolonged military effort and to recover from serious tactical
retaliations. In this connection, copper is absolutely essential for
continued production of direct military item and their immediate sustaining
industries, for the maintenance of co3flunications, for food production
for military and military support personnel and. for the minimum metal
requirements of an existing civil population. Individual deficiencies
of copper can be tolerated over brief periods of time with only tactical
hindrances to a war effort. Accumulative deficiencies and inadequacies
in times of criticalities or for critical functions can, however, spell
the turn of military events.
In the Soviet Bloc countries there is a recognised deficiency in
the copper supply to meet planned needs. Particularly is this deficiency
felt for use in modern developisehts constituting an advanced technology.
Such limitations are especially significant in efforts of the Bloc.to
attain a war potential sufficiently advanced so that agressive action
may be risked.
In view of the contributory or even critical role that, copper might
Play in the objectives and potentialities of the USSR, the following
analysis is prepared to provide basis for a factual appraisal,
1. Uni Properties of Co er of Strata S c:ance.
.Copper is unique among tonnage metals in its high electrical conductivity,
second only to silvers displaying 95 percent of the latter's conductivity.
Important to efficient heat transfer processes is copper's high thermal
coefficient which again is second among metals only to silver. It is
highly corrosion resistant in most environments and has good strength
and other important service properties. Yet copper and its alloys arts
readily machined, formed, welded and are adapted to complex design or
relative intricacy,
Copper lends itself to a variety of alloys rahi.ch can be selected
to fill a diversity of service requirements. Maur of these alloys have
unique and special properties that have no fully comparable substitutes.
Among these are the followings a large variety of brses; the tin,
beryllium, aluminum and silicon bronses; monel metal; and hard, high-
conductivity coppers. As an addition agent to other than copper-base
alloys, copper has additional important uses.
In many applications, there is no substitute for copper or its alloys
where a combination of properties are necessary. It retains its tensility
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in' sea water and certain important chemicals. It is non-magnetic., hc-.s
non-sparking properties. is non-seizing in contact with saving parts$
and is adapted to easy repairs. It is particularly adapted to fabrication
under field conditions and there emergencies arise. Where non-copp
replacements have been made under conditions of material scarcities, the
services or operations concerned have frequently been halted by premature
failures or by the substitute material reacting unfavorably with othctr
components or with the requirements of a functional design. Sometime
redesign or reconstruction is necessary to utilize other than copper-base
metalso
2. Milits Uses of Capper.
Copper and copper-base alloys have runt uses in a number of
military applications. They are used for `stati`on bandsi and fuse pars
in ammunition and to some antes for cartridge cases, They find use
in the followings armored force and other military -vehi.cless; parts for
artillery and small arms; military communication egaip mentt and military
telephone wiring; fire control equipment; miscellaneous ordnance; electrical
equipment; aircraft frames, aircraft engines and their maintenance item;
and naval and auxilary craft and equipment thereof .
An even greater use is in the military support production both pz aparatory
to warfare and to sustain warfare. These may be exemplified in most
industrial machinery$ of both operative and auxt ary categories, Among
these are motors and electrical controls, internal w ring and power lines,
telephone and other communication equipment, process vesssols, tubing and
connectors, fire-fighting equipments, chemicals, and so forth.
Representative items of military use include wiring and electrical
conductors of mazy kinds in land vehicles, naval and marine vessels end
aircraft, automotive radiators, fatigue-resistant tubing and pressure
connectors, telephone and radio equipment, welding equipment, mine detectors,,
field kitchens, marine and other transport bearings, propellor shafts,
condenser tubing, periscopes, and so forth. / The aggregative quantity
of copper employed in such items is often considbrable bedause of the
great diversity of its use.
3. Zuubbstit for Copper.
Because of the over-all. shortage of capper in the Soviet Bloc, aluminum
is used wherever possible for especially selected electrical plicationsa
In particulars, aluminum can replace copper in high-tension power transmission
lines and for urban power distributions It is also usable in winding
for some types of motors and generators. Because larger sizes of motors
are required where aluminum is. employed, however$ It is not adapted to
established designs, or to new designs, where space is at a premium or
where cooling properties coupled with space limitations are encountered,
Technical problem of manufacture in certain motor equipment also present
difficulties for alb substitutions. In illustration of these problem:,
there are the Ism satisfactory means of welding or soldering aluminum,
as compared to copper, and the relative brittleness of these junctions.
To obtain equal conductive capacity to copper the cross section far
aluminum must be increased in accordance with its 64s5 percent conductivity
of the former. Also, unalloyed aluminum has less mechanical strength
and less resistance to atmospheric or wet corrosion than has coppers
in aluminum transmission lines., structural re-enforcement, such as by
steel cores, is necessarya In other applications where electrical wiring
in subject to repeated cycles of strain involving movement and stress
for critical applications, the use of copper is practically mandatory.
Nor is aluminum coned. dared reliable in underground transmission, where
corrosion is ever presents
The Soviet appreciation of the essentiality of copper is seen in reportss
of its specification of this metal to the exclusion of substitutes in new
electrical equipment being produced in East Germany. Also, in repair
of electrical machinery from the USSR, copper is used extensively despite
its relative scarcity. 2/
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In automotive or aircraft electrical wiring, copper is specifically
necessary to withstand vibration and corrosive attack. The reacr formability,
weldability, and resistance to stress corrosion makes copper necessary
in automotive radiators to the exclusion of substitutes that have bean
experimentally tested.
Special tow-carbon steel is being used generally to replace cartridge
case brass in case guns or small arm ammunition. In rapid-fire guns,# steel
cases are basically more apt to stick or to jamb. 3 Hence, the ste31
casing involves greater technical problems of manufacturing control, More
careful testing and inspection and additional safeguards against corrosion
is necessary, particularly on prolonged storage. These problems could also
introduce complications in Soviet production of wartime quantities where
technological difficulties must,be solved separately by each ?=uring
source, Another economic advantage of brass cases, especially in thci
larger caliber, is that they can be salvaged. Steel in fired cases on
the other hand corrodes too readily for such recovery.
For some marine uses such as 1
no satiefacto substitutes for copper alloys* The consequences of
service failures are too serious to warrant gem
'no with short life and
unrel abl
s
s
e rep
semen
4. Bloc Plan Goals and Production,
Estimates of Bloc production of primary plus BeCOPAL&M copper for 1
1255 - thro and estimates of c ca acit for 1 > are prested *~ laab~ e \
Very little positive information on plan goals for copper production is
available. This is characteristic of Soviet security practice where diffi.
culties are encountered in attaining critical, production objectives Lor
essential commodities. In general, plan goals are set for accomi irk-anent
over a Five Year Plan period rather than by a one year period, but they
are revised so frequently in view of practical realizations that they are
of limited value for comparison with actual performance data.
The following plane for the three largest copper-producing countries
of the bloc are available:
USSR. Production to increase 90 percent over 1950 by :1955. / Eased
on tfiew~l/NF' estimate for 1950 production of 275,000 metric tons, this
would mean planned production of about 520,000 metric tons, which compares
favorably with 510,000 metric tons estimated actual production in 1955.
East Germany. 49,185 metric tons production planned for 1953 / compared
with ted actual production; $/ and 44,000 metric tons planned
production in 1954, 1 compared with 41*00 metric tons of estimated actual
production,
Poland. For 19552, planned production is 25,000 metric bona. It
is esed, as shown in Table 1, that this goal will pzobabno be reached.
Regarding the metallurgical quality of the copper production in tie
Bloc, there is m indication but that all acceptable grades of copper,
including that of highest purity, cannot be produced. A report from Chins, 12
for example, states that copper of high purity (99.99 percent}, comparable
with the highest international standards, is being obtained. The tecznology
of producing high grade fire-refined and electrolytic coppers is well known
to all those in this industrial field. Wile technical problems of efficient
and extensive recovery of copper from its ores as a material for subsequent
refinement appears to offer serious problems to the Soviet, this is not
usually reflected in the quality of the final metal,'
CoPper Production Problems.
In general the roduction of copper in the USSR a s to be se:rious
hindered ttr the relative].Y can ores a e more one.
Table onp,4
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On the basis of a thoughtful study made by that Economic Defense Divis!')n
of the CIA, a minim estimate of diversions completed is 41,500 metric to ,