CIEP'S QUESTIONS ON SOVIET GRAIN STORAGE CAPACITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00825R000300190001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 1, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 3, 1974
• Content Type: MF

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3 July 19 74
MEMORANDUM FOR: Sidney Zabludoff
Council on international Economic Policy
SUBJECT CIEP's Questions on Soviet Grain
Storage Capacity
1. This in response to Dennis Wood's memorandum
on Soviet Grain Storage Capacity, dated 21 May 1974.
As per our telephone conversation, we have recast the
questions.
2. Do we have a rough idea of USSR grain storage
capacity?
Officials of the USSR Ministry of Procurement --
the agency responsible for purchasing and handling grain
crops -- recently told a U.S. delegation that current
storage capacity for grain, held by the Ministry, was 126
million metric tons. in addition there is "more than 100
million metric tons" of capacity on farms. We have a
good idea of the types of state storage; onfarm capacity
undoubtedly varies from open-air platforms to well-ventilated
buildings. The accuracy of the quantity of state storage
capacity could probably be checked, at least roughly, by
aggregating the data regularly published by the USSR on
storage capacity constructed. This, however, would be a
very time consuming project.
3. What has our agricultural exchange agreement with
the USSR produced along these lines?
The US delegation on wheat storage, handling, and
milling was the first US group to visit the USSR under
the US/USSR agricultural exchange agreement. They may be
able to shed considerable light on Soviet storage problems.
We have not yet received detailed information on their
findings. Their favorable reception suggests more infor-
mation may be forthcoming.
4. What does the agricultural attache's office know
on these topics?
The agricultural attache's office participates in
most meetings between U.S. agricultural delegations and
Soviet officials. The office also reads the local press.
However, they do not do any research into problems such
as grain storage or capacity.
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5. What assumptions does USDA use on storage capacity?
We understand that USDA accepts the capacities
expressed above (para. 1.) as accurate.
6. What do we know about the Soviet grain stock
position?
The Soviets made it very clear to the first working
group on the US/USSR agricultural exchange that the quantity
of grain stocks is a state secret, subject to the official
Secrets Act. Nevertheless, one official mentioned that
the USSR feels stocks should "equal a year's needs."
Although ambiguous in coverage, the implication is that these
stocks include both centralized stocks which are primarily
for food, industrial and seed uses; and farm stocks which
consist of feed and some seed. This sort of general state-
ment is corroborated in Soviet technical publications and
by a statement by Khrushchev in 1958. The quantity
desired in so-called "strategic" (untouchable except in an
emergency) or a minimum level of stocks, however, is not
known. As needs for grain increase it can be assumed that
the level of all stocks wanted, and perhaps the minimum
level, also would increase. Our grain balance work,
currently in progress, indicates that while Soviet grain
requirements have been steadily increasing, the fluctuation
in grain production has meant that additions to stocks
were not possible in 5 of the past 12 years. Indeed,
sharp stock drawdowns were necessary in some of those years.
USSR Branch
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COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500
May 21, 1974 25X1A
MEMORANDUM FOR:
SUBJECT:
NSC
25X1A [3.4 (b) (1)]
Centro n e igence Agency
DENNIS H. WOOD
Soviet Grain Storage Capacity
I appreciate having received the recent paper you sent over on
the above subject.
It would be useful if we could know more about some of the things
suggested in the paper. First, however, it's important to understand
what we already know and what other sources there are for obtaining such
s information.
? Do we have even a rough idea of what USSR grain storage capacity
is now? By categories?
2. ? What has our agricultural information exchange with the USSR pro-
duced along these lines? Will it produce anything?
? What do other sources suggest?
What do our agricultural attaches know?
What assumptions is USDA using in these areas?
? What do we already know about the other issues you raise in your
paper? Particularly, what level of stocks does the USSR have
now (or at any time)? What level can it comfortably store as
a reserve? Is this level being increased?
0 What trade-offs are being made in pushing forward in this area?
Are we, for example, cutting down on our concentration on
determining what USSR grain output is likely to be by going
forward with this?
Finally, it's apparent that the level of stocks and storage capacity
of the USSR and other Central Plan countries are .a key factorsin resolving
the stockpiling issues being discussed within the U.S. Government and
international forums. Perhaps, after obtaining answers to the above
questions, the role of the procedures you suggest can be better assessed
in the light of current U.S. needs and its potential contribution.
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Question 1.
You may recalQ, I asked Doug if he had a/ USSR
grain storage capacity value. I remember him saying,
"no." He may, however, have a rQuQh idea.
I have seen capacity statistics cited in JPRS
and FBIS documents for a specific state farm or
collective farm or sometimes a state grain
procurement center. On another occasion, statistics
for grain storage shortages -- not total storage
capacity -- were reported in a JPRS document for
only two oblast. This same JPRS report also gave
a statistic for Kazakhstan: "there were 3,946
grain points with a total capacity of 16.85 million
tons of grain per season." Note, however, they did
not provide a total storage capacity for all seasons;
of course, if they had done so along with tie above
data, this would disclose stockpiling information.
By categories? Again, there are some fragmentary
data in the open literature on capacity by silo and
long-low for a specific state farm or collective farm
or state grain procurement center.
Question 2.
The bilaterals, according to a very recent paper
prepared by State for the President, have not provided
any information on grain reserves. The report notes
that data on grain reserves are closely held secrets.
Question 3.
The other sources, as far as I know, are those
listed below -- agricultural attaches and other USDA
officials.
Question 4.
I don't know.
Question S.
I don't know.
Question 6.
We don't have this information according to
OER -- see OER report "The 1973 Soviet Grain Harvest,"
ER IB 73-16, 25 October 1973, p.9. And, obviously,
if we did have we wouldn't be trying to acquire grain
reserve data through the bilaterals.
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We cannot assess what they can comfortably store
since we don't know more precisely (or probably roughly)
what their storage capability is.
One can only presume the Soviets are increasing
their level of stocks since new storage construction
can be observed throughout many grain growing regions
of the USSR.
Question 7.
There shouldn't be any trade-offs. The grain
stora a work could be done completely removed from
the management structure. Possibly a joint
project -- OBGI, IAS, NPIC, and OER.
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Remarks :
Doug:
The questions raised in this memo by
CIEP's Mr. Wood in reference to the pro-
posed.Soviet Grain Storage inventory are
certainly more in your'baliwick than mine.
I would therefore appreciate your thoughts
on what kinds of answers should be sent
to him, and by whom? Your sho with what-
ever input we can supply (see
comments)? Or perhaps OER's evaluation of
the need for such an inventory--which we
discussed briefly the other day--would
serve to answer Mr. W ' 'es?
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Remarks:
Here's some interesting comments from CIEP on
Grain Storage paper. This ma be
25X1A
what we needed to get some action on
We recommend ou raise this
recommendations. Y
memo with and suggest that as the
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h 1 to
Agency spokesman on Agriculture, e rep y o
CIEP's questions. This will hopefully get OER
to make a decision on the value of this type of
estimative effort. Of course we must, for
planning purposes, decide on what additional
roles we envision for GD on this.
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Title of Report Date
.An Approach to Estimating Soviet Grain Storage 30 April 1974
Capacity 25X1D
Report No. Project No. Classification
69.2709 RP 74-15 TCS-2566/74
Name of Requester Name of Analyst Branch
Self-initiated 25X1A GD/X
INTERNAL
Copy 1 -- DDCI, 7E12 , HQ
2 -- Special Asst. to the DCI, 7E13, HQ (Attn:
3 -- IC Staff, 7E13, HQ (Attn: Lt. Gen. Daniel rGT
4 - George A. Carver, Jr., D%DCI/NIO, 6F19, HQ
5 -- NIO/USSR, 7E62, HQ (Attn:
6 -- NIO/Energy, 7E62, HQ (Att-
-- NIO/Economics, 6F19, HQ, (Attn:
25X1A 8 -- Congressional
~--' 9 -- 0/DDI, 7E44, HQ (Attn: 10 -- CRS/DPSD/Doc, 1E4810, HQ
IT - OD/OPR, 3E58, HQ
12 -- OCh/CD/OBGI
13
14 -- D/NPIC, 25X1A
15 -- NPIC/New Applications Branch, 4S409 (Attn:
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EXTERNAL
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EXTERNAL (Continued)
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28 -- Deputy Assistant Secretary
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International Security Affairs
Department of Defense
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29 -- Mr. William R. Gasser
ERS/FDCD
US Department of Agriculture
Room 348
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30 -- Mr. Dennis H. Wood
Council on International Economic Policy
National Security Council
Old Executive Office Bldg. (Room 208)
Washington, D. C. STOP 28
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? SECRET "" ^ CONFIDENTIAL
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PROJECT PROPOSAL
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RESEARCH ACTIVITY
NOTICE
9
1
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SUBJECT
PROJECT NUMBER
Estimatin Soviet Grain Storage Capacity
69.2709
A Methodological Study
SUBJECT CODE
REQUESTER 25X1 D
REQUESTING OFFICE
Self-initiated
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
TARGET DATE
Grain storage capacities and arain stocks are
guarded secrets in the USSR.
15 March 1974
permits z entl i-
ANALYST/BRANCH
cation of nearly all grain storage facilities and
also makes possible an estimate of their capacity.
inlim GD/X
This research paper will detail procedures and
EST. ANALYST MANHOURS
methods for conducting such an inventory, present
results of an inventory of one Western Siberian
60
oblast--Kustana and briefly discuss the potential
value of monitoring selected facil
ities
through time.
25X1 D 25X1 D
COORDINATION REQUIRED FROM
CD/BI Yes
25X1A
OTHER CIA: OER, IAS, NPIC
NON-CIA : N ne
MEN
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DATE
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PUBLICATION DATE
ANALYST/BRANCH
INITIAL NO. OF COPIES
MANHOURS EXPENDED
CLASSIFICATION
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GEOGRAPHY DIVISION Record of Classification Decision
15 Ma 1974
Date
1. Title of report, study, or map:
An A roach to Estimating Soviet Grain Storage Capacity
2. rojec p. an . eport No. or Map No.: PN 69.2709 RP 74-15
. Classification, control, and exempt category: TKH
4. Name of classifier:
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5. Rationale for classification and ex ik ion:
25X1 D
. Sources used in report, study or map which have a bearing on
classification and exemption:
TOTE: Prepare in triplicate -- one copy
for Branch Project File and two copies
for Division Front Office.
)NTROL or CLASSIFY, according to
)ntent of entries.
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