STAFF NOTES: SOVIET UNION EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400110012-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2004
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: November 18, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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9Th\EE 9?9flm
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Soviet Union
pastern Europe
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Top Secret
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November 18, 1975
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SOVIET UNION ? EASTERN EUROPE
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CONTENTS
November 18, 1975
Sakharov'
s Prize: The Dissidents' View. . .
. .
1
Romania S
Mi'.itar
ends "Observer" to Swiss
y Maueuvers . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
4
Wa.saw Pa
ct Defense Ministers Meet . .
. .
5
Polish Pa
rty Plenum Due Thursday . . . . . .
. .
6
A New Con
stitution. and the 25th
Party C
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ongress
Czechoslo
Tour d'
vak Foreign Minister's
Horizon . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
10
Are the S
oviets Miffed with the Afghans? . .
. .
11
Albanian
Top-Lev
Purges Have Not Affected
el Hierarchy . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
13
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Y
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Sakharov's Prize: The Di8sidents' View
The award of a Nobel Peace Prize to Andrey Sak-
harov appears to be generating a degree of cohesive
activism among members of the Soviet dissident commu-
nity that may give the regime pause, at least over
the short term. In the longer term, however, the
dissidents' prospects remain grim.
Last week, 37 dissidents oL differing philo-
sophical stripes joined in issuing a statement con-
demning the regime's refusal (as yet unpublicized by
Soviet domestic media) to permit Sakharov to travel
to Oslo next month for the award ceremony. The dis-
sidents pledged support for .Sakharov and charged
that the regime's action is proof of its "fear in the
face of the unwavering movement of civil tho%;;y'it and
morality" .n the USSR.
The document is the second public declaration of
st!r~hort for Sakharov and his principles that the dis-
sid nts have: put out in as many weeks. The first,
signed only by a handfu:', of the most prominent names,
was made public on October 30, evidently in response
to the publication by Izvestia of a statement by 72
members of the Academy of sciences condemning Sak-
harov and the Nci0,~-;l Committee.
The declarations, both oj which may have been
drafted and organized by writer Andrey Amalrik,
brought together such figures as reformist, Marxist,
historian Roy Medvedev, sculptor Ernst Neizvestny,
former general Petr Grigorenko, poet Alsksandr Ginz-
burg, members of the official writers union Vladimir
Kornilov and Osip Cherny, and Larisa Bogoraz, wife
of .,vriter Anatoly Marchenko. Also among the signa--
tories were Jewish activist Vitaly Rubin and mathe-
matician Vladimir Albrecht. The letter is the sec-
retary of the Moscow branch of the London-based hu-
man rights o~ganizat.ion Amnesty International--a
November 18, 1975
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Sakharov's Prize: The Dissidents' View
The award of a Nobel Peace Prize to Andrey Sak-
harov appears to be generating a degree of cohesive
activism among members of the Soviet dissident commu-
nity that may give the regime pause, at least over
the short tern. In the longer term, however, the
dissidents' prospects remain grim.
Last week, 37 dissidents of differing philo-
sophical stripes joined in issuing a statement con-
demning the regime's refusal (as yet unpublicized by
Soviet domestic media) to permit Sakharov to travel
to Oslo next month for the award ceremony. The dis-
sidents pledged support for Sakharov and charged
that the regime's action is proof of its "fear in the
face of the unwavering movement of c3.vil thought and
morality" in the USSR.
The document is the second public declaration of
support for Sakharov and his principles tha`, the dis-
sidents have put out in as many weeks. The first,
signed only by a handful of the mcst prominent names,
was made public on October 30, evidently in response
to the publication by Izveatia of a statement by 72
members of the Academy of sciences condemning Sak-
harov and the Nobel Committee.
The declarations, both of which may have been
drafted and organized by writer Andrey Amalrik,
brought together such figures as reformist, Marxist
historian Roy Medvedev, sculptor Ernst Neizvestny,
former general Petr Grigorenko, poet Aleksandr Ginz-
burg, members of the official writers union Vladimir
Kornilov and Osip Cherny, and .Marisa Bogoraz, wife
of writer A:za'.oly Marchenko. Also among the signa-
tories were J'_,wsh activist Vitaly Rubin ind mathe-
matician Vladimir Albrecht. The latter is the sec-
retary of the L.oscow branch of the London-based hu-
man rights organization Amnesty International.?.,
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The more pessimistic majority see the Kremlir
as willing to use Sakharov's case to make even clearer
than before that the CSCE agreements cannot be cited
by the West to press for change in Soviet domestic
policy. They also point to the Soviet loadership's
recent retrenchment on doctrinal issues as an indi-
cation not only of pre-congress closing of ranks,
but also a reaction to perceived exploitation of hu-
man rights by some in the West to sabotage detente.
In this atmosphere, the dissidents see their future
as dark.
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Romania Sends "Observer" to
Swiss Military Maneuvers
Romania has again broken ranks with its East
European allies, this time, when it sent an "ob-
server" to Swiss military maneuvers last week. Bu-
charest apparently wants to demonstrate the importance
it attaches to CSCE confidence-building measures and
to underscore its determination to resist Moscow's
demands for greater conformity within the Warsaw Pact.
Originally, all five Warsaw Pact military at-
taches accredited to Bern--including the Soviet--
indicated they might attend. Moscow had second
thoughts, however, apparently fearing it might set a
precedent for inviting Western observers to Warsaw
Pact exercises. The Soviet attache asked the Swiss,
who have long invited observer to their exercises,
if they extended this invitation specifically to ful-
fill CSCE obligations.
The Romanians probably calculated that it was
easier to break ranks on the "observer" issue when a
neutral state held the exercises. Bucharest may also
have felt that Soviet equivocation about attending
the Swiss exercises presented a convenient opportunity
to be present. Last month the Romanians did not send
an observer to NATO maneuvers in West Germany, al-
though there were earlier signs that they would. At
the time, a Romanian diplomat noted the "repercussions
would be too great," and alleged the Soviets were
"twisting arms."
A Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs official
handling COCE affairs later said that Romania hoped
for more "national"--not NATO--invitations in the
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gested that the West "bombard" the East with as many
maneuver notifications as possible in order to get
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Warsaw Pact Defense Ministers Meet
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the meeting of Warsaw Pact
etense ministers now being held in Prague is "rou-
tine and of no special significance." The two-day
session, expected to end today, will probably con-
sider, past and future training exercises. The last
similar meeting was held in Moscow in January, and
the ministers have usually timed their annual ses-
sions for the winter months when exercise activity
slackens. The recent meeting of the Warsaw Pact
military council in Bucharest was also routine, and
set the agenda for the current meeting.
November 18, 1975
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Polish Party Plenum Due Thursday
The Polish Party Central Committee meets on
Thursday to complete plrns for the seventh party con-
gress which convenes on December 8. Some changes in
Politburo membership will probably be made at the plenum
or, more likely, at the congress, but no major altera-
tions in the Gierek leadership or its policies are
expected.
Those members of the Politburo most likely to
be dropped are Franciszek Szlachcic, who was removed
from the party secretariat in 1974 for excessive
nationalism and personal ambition, Cultural Mi..ister
Jozef Tejchma, and former planning chief Miec;yslaw
Jagielski who has lost some of his extensive in-
fluence after a severe heart attack.
The plenum will probably fccus on how to pro-
ceed with raising food prices and coping with the
persistent meat shortages that have caused wide-
spread grumbling since early this year.
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The Politburo's decisions on these sensitive
economic issues will be explained to local party 25X1
officials, but they will probably receive lit~t:,',e
if any publicity in the media.
November 18, 1975
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A New Constitution and the 25th Party Congress,
Time is growing short for Soviet party boss Brezh-
nev to fulfill his 1972 promise that a new constitution
would be submitted for nationwide discussion before
the 25th party congress. On balance, the evidence sug-
gests he will not make it.
The question of a new constitution has been hang-
ing fire since 1959 when it was first proposed by
Khrushchev. Brezhnev has publicly associated himself
with the project and indeed heads the 95-member cons-
mission charged with drafting the document. When
Brezhnev last spoke on the subject publicly, in 1972,
he said that a new constitution was needed to reflect
the changes that have taken place in Soviet society
since the present constitution was adopted in 1936.
November 18, 1975
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as even more pessimistic, X1
saying early this month that a new draft would not
until late next year or early 1977.
laimed that the commission drafting the
document had to deal with many difficult arguments.
In developments possibly related to a new con- 25X1
stitution, the Soviet press reported in October that
a Supreme Soviet Commission met to examine the ues-
tion of the USSR draft law on citizenship.
The customary discussion in scholarly journals
and the press of a draft constitution. has not even
begun, nor is there any evidence that a draft has
been sent to the republic Supreme Soviets for re-
view and discussion. The Soviets have been close
followers of this long-established procedure when
presenting an important document to the public.
Customarily a draft is published and a call for a
nationwide discussion issued; some of the suggestions
made during this lengthy public discussion are in-
corporated in the final draft document. There is,
in short, a determined effort to milk such an affair
for maximum publicity before it concludes with
adoption by the Supreme Soviet. The ongoing prepara-
tions for the party congress would seem to preclude
initiation of a constitutional debate at this time.
Next year, however, the Soviets will mark the
40th anniversary of the present constitution, and
given the penchant of the leadership to mark decade
November 18, 1975
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anniversaries with some pomp, it is possible that
another start on the constitution may be announced
at the Congress, and there may be some statement of
general principles.
November 18, 1975
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Czechoslovak Foreicn Minister's Tour d'Ilorizon
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Foreign Minister Chnoupok's major foreign policy
speech to the Federal Assembly on November 11 was less
sycophantic toward the Soviets than his last major par-
liamentary address on October 13, 1972.
Despite the decreased adulation accorded the
Soviet Union in his recent address, Chnoupek paid
proper obeisance to the basic tenets of Soviet for-
eign policy, including the "Brezhnev Doctrine." in
short, he said nothing to which Moscow might object.
The differences between Chnoupek's speech this
time and his earlier one probably are a result of a
growing sense of self-confidence of both the regime
and the foreign minister himself. Although Prague
has not completely shed the pariah image it gained
in the post-Dubcek period, its foreign policy has
scored major successes over the past three years.
Chnoupek, with some pride, emphasized CzechG;;lovakia's
increasing acceptability, ns he ticked off the number
of foreign contacts, new ncernational documents, and
countries with which Prague has established relations.
Chnoupek takes personal credit for the "foreign policy
wiccesses" achieved since he became foreign minister
in December 1971. In fact, he appears to have done
so well that, by some accounts, he is slated to move
up into the party presidium.
On balance, Chnoupek seemed to be promoting an
image of a sovereign country that follows a co-
ordinated foreign policy. His personal style and
polish may have made some elements of the address
appear newer than they were. Parts of his speech
were clearly aimed at the foreign diplomats who were
conspicuously invited to attend. His remarks on the
implementation of CSCE, foreign trade offices in
Czechoslovakia, and the reunification of divided
families were deleted in the local press coverage.
November 18, 1975
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Are the Soviets Miffed with the Afghans?
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chief of state Pod orn will visit Kabul in the naar
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and the an an an-
nual basis and Afghan President Daoud was in Moscow
in June 1974. Pod orn 's 25X1
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cern is probably to take a first-hand look at the
Daoud government since the President's purge of
leftist Cabinet members in August.
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November 18, 1975
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Albanian Purges Have Not Affected
Top-level Ificrarchy
The widespread purges that are reportedly
sweeping the Albanian bureaucracy have evidently not
affected the top party leadership. On November 17,
a special session of the People's Assembly met to
draft a new constitution. All Politburo members
were present,'including party chief Enver Iloxha--who
is still politically very active despite whatever
ailments he may have.
Opening speeches at the assembly session strong-
ly suggest that Hoxha will obtain ratification of the
reform measures he had apparently ad(,-)trd in order
to strengthen his own and the party's hold over the
government's administrative apparatus and to reduce
excessive bureaucracy.
On the eve of the session the party's official
paper, Teri I PopuZZit, published a lead editorial
written by Ramiz Alia, the Albanian party's chief
ideological spokesman. Alia's ringing endorsement
of I1oxha's policies clearly signaled to the party
faithful that regardless of their unsettling effect
on domestic and foreign policy the recent personnel
changes have the endorsement of top leaders.I
November 18, 1975
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CHRONOLOGY
November 11 Bulgarian Foreign Minister Mladenov
begins a three-day, official visit
to Yugoslavia. I-- I
Premier Kosygin confers with acting
Libyan Foreign Minister Durdah in
Moscow.
US-Hungarian Economic Council concludes
a two-day meeting, its first, in
Budapest.
USSR Supreme Soviet's planning and
budgetary committees convene in the
Kremlin to hear reports on the 1976
economic plan by Gosplan chairman
Baybakov and on the 1975 and 1976
state budgets by Finance Minister
Garbuzov.
Foreign Minister Chnoupek outlines
Czechoslovak foreign policy in a
speech to the Federal Assembly at
Prague. F77 I
Yugoslav party secretary for ideology
Kurtovic addresses a meeting of party
propagandists in Belgrade; Kurtovic
announces that Cominformists will be
tried soon and makes a thinly veiled
allusion to Soviet interference in
Yugoslavia's internal affairs.
A three-hour session in East Berlin
on a possible FRG-GDR judicial
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this topic befo7e next March.
assistance agreement ends "with no
prospect of agreement yet"; the two
sides do not plan to reconvene on
USSR "temporarily" suspends relations
with Uganda.
Brezhnev confers with visiting West
German President Scheel; also
participating in the meeting are
Foreign Ministers Gromyko and
Genscher. School has a second
meeting with President Podgorny.
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Prime Minister Moro.
Hungarian Premier Lazar begins an
official visit to Italy accompanied
by Foreign Trade Minister Biro avid
Deputy Foreign Minister Nagy; Lazar
has two private talks with Italian
USSR, GDR, and Romania promptly
grant diplomatic recognition to the
MPLA's Peoplets Republic of
Angola."
November 12 USSR officially refuses the request
of dissident physicist Andrey Sakharov
for permission to go to Norway to
receive his Nobel Peace Prize;
Soviets announce they revoked last
January the citizenship of dissident
Vladimir Maksimov, a prominent writer
now living in Paris.
Czechoslovak Premier Strougal begins
a three-da official visit to
France.
GDR Foreign Minister Fischer completes
a three-day, official visit to
Sweden.
November 18, 1975
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November 13 Portuguese Foreign Minister Mobo
Antunes, citing "the repercussions
of the political situation" in
Lisbon, cancels his official visit
to Czechoslovakia, which was to have
started tomorrow.
Foreign Minister Genscher returns
to Bonn, but FRG President Scheel
continues his state visit to the
USSR.
Visiting Hungarian Premier Lazar is
granted a 45-minute audience with
Pope Paul Vi.
North Vietnamese party chief Le Duan
concludes an official visit to
Poland and begins one to Romania;
in Warsaw, the two sides signed a
five-year economic coo er,ation
agreement. F7 I
November 14 Politburo member Kirilenko and
candidate-member Ponomarev confer
with a visiting party-government
delegation from the Congo.
Romanian President Ceausescu confers
with visiting North Vietnamese party
Polish DepLty Premier Wrzaszczyk con-
cludes a two-day, official visit to
the USSR for talks on economic
cooperation, having met today with
Premier Kosygin and three Soviet
deputy premiers.
Radio Moscow's domestic service
reports another stern demarche was
November 18, 1975
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November 14 made to ChLna by the USSR "only
the other lay" regarding the Soviet
helicopter crow seized in March of
last year.
Syrian Prime Minister 1lyyubi con-
cludes an official visit to Romania.
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Portuguese Communist party leader
Cunhal begins a visit to Hungary.
November 15 Niger Foreign Minister Djermakoye
concludes a four-day, official visit
to Romania.
Hungarian Defense Minister Czinege
ends a six-day official visit to
Austria.
FRG President Scheel returns to
Bonn from his state visit to the
USSR.
Soviet economic delegation leaves
Moscow for a,: official visit to
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Somalia.
November 16 Warsaw Pact officials arrive in
Prague for a regular meeting of the
alliance's defense ministers
Iran for a four-day, official visit.
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November 18, 1975
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November 17 USS Bigelow begins a six-day, offi-
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cial port call at Rijeka, Yugoslavia.
Czechoslovak Foreign Minister
Chnoupek begins ?a four-day, official
visit to the Netherlands.
Politburo candi"'ate member Demichov
concludes an official visit to Czech-
The "editorial commission" seeking
to complete preparations for the
pan-European Communist party con-
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ference convenes in East Berlin.
Ugandan diplomatic relations.
Tass announces restoration cf Soviet-
November 18 Deputy Foreign Trade Minister Grishin
arrives in Cairo for a one-week,
official visit concerning debt re-
scheduling and other aspects of
Soviet-Egyptian economic relations.
Italian President Leone begins a one-
week state visit to the USSR.
FUTURE EVENTS
November 20 French Foreign Trade Minister Segard
to begin an official visit to the
USSR for talks on energy matters.
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Polish Central Committee to meet.
Romania's Grand National Assembly
to convene in Bucharest.
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November 21 Secretary of Agriculture Butz to begin
a three-day official visit to Romania.
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Secretary of Agriculture Butz to
begin a three-day, official visit to
Hungary. F7 I
November 24 Bulgarian party/state leader Zhivkov
to start a five-day visit to West
Germany. F7 I
Romanian President Ceausescu to begin
a three-day visit to Kuwait; he may
also visit other Persian Gulf states.
Soviet-Norwegian Barents Sea con-
tinental shelf talks to resume.
November 25 Secretary of Agriculture Butz to
begin a four--day, official visit to
Poland.
late Ncvem- Yugoslav Foreign Minister Minic to
ber make an official
Netherlands.
visit to the
USSR to launch a satellite containin
US biological experiments.
December i Turkish Prime Minister Demirel to
begin a three-day, official visit to
Bulgaria.
November 18, 1975
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December 1 CPSU Central Committee expected to
convene in Moscow for a plenary
meeting. F77 I
December. 2 Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sabah to
be in an official visit to the USflR.
USSR Supreme Soviet to convene in
Moscow.
early Decem-
ber
Foreign Minister Gromyko to make
an official visit to the UK.
US-Soviet committee on nuclear energy
cooperation to convene in Washington.
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December 3 Bulgaria's Sixth National Assembly tr
convene its 15th session. 25X1
Czechoslovak Foreign Minister Chnoupek
to begin a one-week, official visit
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December 4 West German Foreign Minister Genscher
to begin a two-da official visit to
Bucharest. F_ I
December 8 Polish part congress to convene in
Warsaw.
Yugoslav Foreign Minister Minic to
begin a two-day, official visit to
November. ' 1975
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Nobel Peace prize to be awarded--
undoubtedly in al:-oentia--to
Sakharov at Oslo; Soviet economist
Kantorovich to receive his Econom cs
prize at Stockholm.
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December Romanian party secretary Andrei
to make an official visit to Israel.
Brezhnev to mark his 69th hi ri-hd i r
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November 18, 1975
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