CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001300260001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 20, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 11, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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11 October 1953
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
pOCUMENTNO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ~~,,a.-----~
C# DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED Tp; TS S C
NEXT R6VIEEN DATE: 2 ~ o q.__
AUTH: HR 702
DP.TE:~C?L7~2~ RtVIFWEr~: -~-
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
TUP SECRET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
00266a~1 $A
? ~ British action in Guiana may influence Latin American UN v '
(page 3), ottng
FAR EAST
2. Chou En-lai's political conference proposal (page 3}.
3. Coup against Rhee believed unlikely (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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a
(page 5), n ~ rench claimed
angson raid reportedly less successful th
F
NEAR, EAST -AFRICA
Ofl field in southeastern Turkey recorded as a ma'or reservoir
(page 5). ~
?. Comment on Syrian elections (page 7).
8. Kenya officials pessimistic over elimination of Mau Mau (page 8).
EASTERN EUROPE
W' Comment on Yugoslav reaction to Tr'
Neste demarche (page 8},
WESTERN EUROPE
erman .delegate progress made on EPC at Rome (page 10).
12.
LATIN AMERICA
Copper strike threatened in Chile (page 10).
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GENERAL
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1. British action in Guiana may influence Latin American UN voting:
A Venezuelan official and the ambassac ors
from. uba, Ecuador and Argentina reportedly have made statements
favoring the liquidation of the "colonial system in America:'
e nQnse - overnin territorial issues are debated,
Latin American reaction to the Guiana
situation has- shown a strongly national-
istic tone which may have its effect in
the UN when the Tunisian-Moroccan and
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Comment: Last year Cuba, Ecuador and
Venezuela. joined Brazil and other Latin American countries in sponsor-
ing amild resolution on North Africa designed to give the French time
to undertake reforms in the area. The French, confident of defeating 25X1
any Arab-Asian proposal, have asked the Latin Americans not to take 25X1
any initiative on the issue this year,
FAR EAST
2. Chou En-lai's political conference proposal:
25X1 A I I Chinese Communist premier Chou En-lai's
10 October message to the UN secretary-general proposes meetings
between Communist and American representatives at Panmunjom to
decide the time and place of the Korean political conference and, "more
important," its composition. Chou specifically. reaffirms the Communist
demand for the participation of "neutral nations" in the conference itself.
The only modification of Chou's position of
13 September is the withdrawal of the demand that Chinese Communist
and North Korean representatives be invited to conduct "yoint negotia-
tions" at the UN General Assembly. The current statement waters
down, but does not withdraw, the 13 September demand for settlement
of the composition question before discussing the time and place.
_3_
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Chows message does not reflect any
Sino-Soviet disagreement on the canfer~nce. A Polish UN delegate
.told an American official on 5 October that the USSR favors atwo-
phase conference, t. e. , preliminary negotiations on procedure to
be followed by the conference itself. Such a procedure would lend
itself to the familiar Communist delaying tactics.
Coup against Rhee believed unlikelyo
juncture. It points out that police and possibly army support would
be needed, and the president has successfully removed Yi supporters
from key positions in both organizations.
The American embassy in Seoul reports
that in desperation supporters of Yi Pam-
sok might attempt to unseat President Rhee,
but that such action is unlikely at this
Commenta Contrary to the embassy's
views, General Chong Il-kwon,4 commander of South Korea's II Corps,
.reportedly stated in late September that Yi stiYl could determine the
actions of the army, and that there is danger of a coup by elements
of the I Corps. There is no other evidence to indicate that an army
coup is likely.
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5. Langson raid reportedly less successful than French claimed:
n
evacuate vehicles aid other supplies with the result thatlaut matic
rifles were the only important stocks at the depot. Considerably
less. than 1, 000 tons of enemy materiel was destroyed, in contrast
to the figure of 5,000 tons which was given to the press.
Comment: The Langson raid was widely
acclaimed as a successful manifestation of a new aggressive policy
instituted by General Navarre. The commander in chief carried out
only one other operation of six which he reportedly planned during
the summer rainy season, and it was even .less successful.
had no signifbcant effect pn Viet Minh capabil deSeen expected, and
A security leak gave the e
t'
the French High
ommissariat in Saigon told the assist-
ant US army attache on 8 October that the
French raid on Langson last July was not
as successful h
NEAR EAST -AFRICA
6. Oil field in southeastern Turkey recorded as a major reservoir:
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Oil reserves at the Raman field in south-
eastern Turkey (see map,. po 6) are now
estimated at 400,000,000 barrels, enough
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to support for over 35-years the nearb Batman refiner which has
a daily capacity of 7, 500 barrels,
Turkey's plans for exploiting the Kaman oil reservoir,
ormerly cautious, are now proceeding at full speed.
Comment: This is the first evidence that
Turkey may have significant of resources. In 1952 the proven reserves
of this same, field were estimated as 70,000,000 barrels.
Sharply increasing oil requirements have
become a major factor in Turkey's foreign expenditures. On the basis
of this latest estimate, the Raman field should be able to supply roughly
25 percent of Turkey's petroleum requirements, and thus reduce the
drain on Turkish dollar .:earnings.
7. , Comment on Syrian elections:
The rigged. election on 9 October of a
yrian parliament at least superficially completes the restoration of
constitutional rule promised by General Shishakli. when he seized power
in December 1951. He now possesses the prestige and constitutional
machinery necessary for implementing domestic reforms and foreign
policies.
He may be expected to push through parlia-
ment aseries of agricultural, .commercial and financial reforms. He
is also likely to renew efforts to obtain sizable economic and military
assistance from the United States, as well as a loan from the World
Bank, for which legislative approval is needed. He will probably now
resume his efforts to get higher oil revenues from the Iraq Petroleum
Company.
The majoraty of Syrians are relatively
indifferent to President Shishakli's dictatorship, but the disgruntled
politicians and extremist. elements, currently checked by his police
controls, are a constant threat to his position.
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 High Kenya officials are reportedly
pessimistic 'about prospects of elimi-
nating the Mau Mau. They are said to
be extremely concerned over the secret
-8-
8..Kenya officials pessimistic over elimination of Mau Mau
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least one report.
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e rea wt arise i t e Mau Mau resorts to sabotage of com-
munications facilities and mass strikes, as has been suggested by at
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Comment on Yugoslav reaction to Trieste demarche:
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society's continuing ability to intimidate Africans in Kenya and over
.further indications that the Mau Mau is spreading beyond the Kikuyu
tribe. The security situation. in Nairobi is reportedly now worse
than ever.
Comment: The deterioration of security
in Nairobi and the continuing ail~ure o`f increased military operations
to suppress the Mau Mau .are now reversing the wave of optimism which
followed the appointment of Sir George "Erskine as commander in a;hief
of -the East Africa command last June.
Yugoslavia's opposition to the American-
British demarche on Trieste was emphatically reaffirmed on 10 and 11 Octo-
ber, when Tito warned that Italian aggression in Zone A would be met by
all measures at Yugoslavia's disposal under the United Nations Charter, in-
cluding the use of .armed force. He warned that Yugoslav troops would enter
Zone A the moment Italian troops moved into the zone. These threats are
obviously designed to disrupt plans for the replacement of Allied troops by
.Italian forces.
i
To support this. firm position, all military
leaves -have been canceled and Tito has affirmed that units of the Yugoslav
army have already entered Zone B to reinforce the garrison there. The
American embassy in .Belgrade has evidence, as yet unconfirmed, of troop
~?ov~~ments toward Zone B in the vicinity of Ljubljana.
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By these belligerent gestures, Tito is assum-
ing astand from which he will find it extremely difficult to retreat. The
emphasis which Belgrade ~a,s placed on the provisions of the Italian Peace
Treaty and the principles of the United Nations Charter suggest~~_.however,,
that these military steps are intended to prepare the- ground for a Jugoslav
appeal to the United Nations on the grounds that the Ang1o~A~merican plan
constitutes a threat to the peace.
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11, German delegate sees progrees made on EPC at Romeo
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predicted that its final report would contain no compromnses jeopardiz-
ing the supranational principle of the community.
r
Walter Hallstein, chief German delegate,
conceded that the meeting of the European
Political Community at Rome had been
"disappointing in some aspects," but flatly
Hallstein added that the conference agreed
to postpone the previously scheduled Hague meeting until late November,
thus enabling working level diplomats to resolve some of the dilfferences
between the various participants.
Comment: At the Rome meeting, it became
clear that the French represent fives wanted to water down the supra-
national powers of the EPC executive.
Since Franee and West Germany will probably
negotiate on the Saar issue before the Hague meeting, it is possible
that the French may reduce their demands for a weak EPC executive if
Chancellpr Adenauer grants concessions on the Saar. French Socialists,
whose votes are needed by the government for EDC ratification, will
simultaneously be pressing their government for a stronger EPC execu-
tive.
LATIN AMERICA
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12. Copper strike threatened in Chile:
with the workers prnor to a settlement of their various problems with
the Chilean government.
percent wage increase and additional benefits which would amount to
as much more. The companies claim that they are unable to negotiate
The Copper Confederation workers at the
American-owned mines in northern Chile
have called a strike for 12 Qctober unless
the companies meet their demands fora 75
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Comment: The northern mines produce
about 65 percent of Chile's coppery With present government expendi-
tures .running from 10 to 15 percent over 1953 estimates, any further
loss of xevenue from copper would- seriously weaken Chile's already
shaky economy.
The Chilean government's attitude toward
this striks threat is not .known, but a state of eme~cgency has already
been declared in this area as a ~Cesult of a nitrate workers strike.
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