CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001500220001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 6, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. ?Z 7
CLASS. CHANGED TO. TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: QQ 9
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
E) DECLASSIFIED
DATE: 1t2 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DOS review(s) completed.
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
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1. Communists may bring up status of Laos and Cambodia at Geneva
(page 3).
3. USSR reported pressing Afghanistan to accept aid (page 4).
5.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French ask American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu (page 7).
SOUTH ASIA
7. Ceylon cabinet considers scrapping trade agreement with Peiping
(page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Mounting Israeli belligerency increases chances of serious conflict
(page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
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(page 8).
9. French sources see Juin?s dismissal as severe setback for EDC
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GENERAL
1. Communists may bring up status of Laos and Cambodia at Geneva:
The Communists may be planning to
discuss the status of Laos and Cambodia
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at Geneva,
Viet
Minh propaganda is giving heavy play to the unity among the "demo-
cratic governments" of Indochina, and states that the revolution,
instead of being depicted as affecting only Vietnam, is being portrayed
as primarily Indochinese.
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this show of solidarity 25X1
2.
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can only strengthen the Co'mmuntst pot on n view of the undeniable
division of purpose among French Union members.
Comment: The Viet Minh has for several
years sponsored. dissident groups in Laos and Cambodia and referred
to them as "governments." Neither Moscow nor Peiping has recognized
these "governments," but they may demand that spokesmen. of these
groups take part in the Geneva conference.
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3. USSR reported pressing Afghanistan to accept aid:
and is seeking ways to postpone Afghanistan's reply.
The Soviet embassy in Kabul has been
pressing Afghanistan to accept: "fantasti-
cally large" economic and technical aide
according to the Afghan deputy foreign
minister. He implied that Foreign Minister Naim is greatly worried
Comment: Moscow is apparently trying
to make sure that Afghanistan will not join in Middle East defense
planning, and to counteract the effects of Pakistan's participation.
This Soviet "offer" to Afghanistan may
presage similar pressure on Iran and other Middle Eastern states.
Soviet offers of economic and technical aid could also be used by
Moscow as concrete evidence of its "peaceful intentions" in contrast
to Western military planning in the area.
Afghanistan signed an agreement with the
USSR in January providing for a $38500,000 credit and Soviet technical
assistance for grain processing and storage.
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4.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
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6, French ask American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu.
General Navarre has reported to Paris
that the situation at Dien Bien Phu is now
in a state of "precarious equilibrium'
The Viet Minh is bringing up its last available
reinforcements, which will far outnumber any fresh troops the French
can drop in by parachute. He believes that a renewal of the assault by
reinforced Viet Minh forces is probable by the middle or end of the week.
French foreign minister Bidault on 4 April
asked Ambassador Dillon for American air intervention at Dien Bien Phu.
At the same time, Bidault told the ambassador that the chief of the French
air staff believed such American action could lead to Chinese air attacks on
delta airfields.
The foreign minister further said that the fate
of Southeast Asia and that of the Geneva conference now depend on the
outcome at Dien Bien Phu.
SOUTH ASIA
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7. Ceylon cabinet considers scrapping trade agreement with Peiping
The Ceylonese cabinet has been discussing
the possibility of scrapping Ceylon's five-
year rubber-rice barter agreement with
Communist China, according to Agriculture
Minister J. R. Jayewardene. He told the American ambassador on 2
April that Ceylon cannot consume or sell all the rice it receives from
China in return for its rubber shipments, and that the present surplus
of 50,000 tons is not marketable at home or abroad.
Jayewardene added, however, that the deal
with China was still profitable in view of the high price Ceylon obtained
for rubber, and he hoped that the United. States would help Ceylon
"materially" if the agreement were abrogated.
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Comment: The agriculture minister's
comments are an open invitation for an American offer of economic
assistance in return for Ceylon's abandonment of the agreement with
China, now in its second year. World rice surpluses and Ceylon's
improved food situation make this agreement less attractive, and may
lead the Ceylonese to try to drive a harder bargain in their annual price
negotiations with Peiping this fall.
The drawbacks apparently are not yet serious
enough, however, to alter Ceylon's contention that the United States must
make up most of the difference--$17,000,000 in 1953- between the world
price of rubber and the price paid by Peiping if the deal is to be scrapped
completely.
NEAR EAST m AFRICA
Consul General Tyler reports from Jerusalem
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iate against the Arab states have increased
dangerously since 1952. He states that the
British, who are usually well informed, are
sufficiently concerned to be registering their subjects. Tyler believes
that if there is another incident in which an Israeli is killed, Tel Aviv
will probably retaliate as it did at Nahhalin.
Comment: With the Arab Legion alert on
the border, a confused inci en,-where responsibility cannot be quickly
determined, may result in hostilities on a larger scale. Sharett thus
may not have enough time to prove the effectiveness of his moderate
policy toward the Arab states.
WESTERN EUROPE
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8. Mounting Israeli belligerency increases chances of serious conflict:
9. French sources see Juin's dismissal as severe setback for EDC:
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The French government's disciplining of
Marshal Juin will cause a severe setback
for EDC,
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French veterans
and the general public will now show a much stronger anti-EDC attitude.
General de Gaulle pressed Juin recently to act
as a rallying point for French nationalists.
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25X1 some members of parliament are already discussing the
possibility of having a senator or deputy vacate his seat so as to give
Juin an elected office in which he could make antigovernment speeches
freely.
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Comment: Press reaction to the assault
on Premier Laniel and Defense Minister Pleven in Paris on 4 April
suggests that public opinion is rallying to the support of the government
against the political agitation of military leaders. Suspicion of the
marshal's political ambitions can be expected to temper any endorsement
in the assembly of his all-out opposition to EDC..
As a result of his dismissal, Juin may be
more susceptible to urgings that he attempt a coup. It is quite unlikely,
however, that he could obtain sufficient support to overthrow the govern-
ment.
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