CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017700010001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 21, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 28, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret.
28 November 1970
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CQ4MP79T00975A01 77000100
No. 0285/70
28 November 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
WARSAW PACT: Leaders may meet to discuss the course
of East-West negotiations. (Page 1)
ROMANIA - COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking's loan almost
certainly has more political than economic signif-
icance. (Page 3)
INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: A conference at The Hague
will try to work out an anti-hijacking convention.
(Page 4)
IAEA: The special committee reconvenes in Vienna
tomorrow. (Page 5)
GUINEA: Conditions have largely returned to normal
in Conakry. (Page 6)
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ARAB STATES: Syria joins union (Page 9)
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC - FRANCE: Relations (Page 9)
TURKEY: End of parliamentary impasse (Page 10)
TURKEY: Bombings (Page 10)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Monetary union (Page 11)
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WARSAW PACT: There are indications that War-
saw Pact leaders may meet next week, in advance of
the 'NATO ministerial meeting, to discuss the course
of East-West negotiations concerning Europe.
The Polish Foreign Ministry has suddenly post-
poned a visit of the Austrian foreign minister, and
East German party boss Ulbricht postponed a visit
to Romania. Both events had been scheduled for
2 December. Most diplomatic observers in Warsaw
believe the main subject of the conference will be
East German party boss Ulbricht's contention that
the pace of detente, which to him largely means
positive responsiveness in Communist Europe to
West Germany's Ostpolitik, is too fast.
There are rumors that the meeting was arranged
by East European leaders who were gathered in Buda-
pest this week for the Hungarian party congress.
Ulbricht, who did not attend the congress, presum-
ably was informed of the decision by Soviet Foreign
Minister Gromyko, who made a quick trip to East
Berlin on 25 November.
As if to underscore Ulbricht's displeasure,
on the day following the Gromyko visit, the East
German delegate to the Hungarian party congress
repeated Pankow's maximum demands on Bonn in tones
not designed to encourage Bonn negotiators, who
were preparing for the first session of their work-
ing level. talks with the East Germans on 27 Novem-
ber. The speaker said that "prerequisites" existed
for successful negotiations with the West, but
only, he hinted, if the USSR and the other social-
ist states used their strength together to solve
"new problems and tasks." He indicated his party's
approval of the Soviet and Polish treaties with
West Germany, but largely on the grounds that these
pacts confirm the sovereignty of East Germany. So-
viet party boss Brezhnev claimed only that these
treaties protect "the legal interests" of the Ger-
man Democratic Republic.
(continued)
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SECRET
If the East German delegate's speech was a
true reflection of Ulbricht:'s position, the Warsaw
Pact meeting will have to work out a solid front
on the pace and course of East-West negotiations,
and the four-power and East: - West German talks on
Berlin, and on whether East: Germany's claim of the
right to have a decisive voice on the course of
normalization of relations between West Germany and
Pankow's allies should be accepted.
28 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ROMANIA - COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking's long-term,
interest-free loan to Bucharest almost certainly has
more political than economic significance.
The amount of the loan and the specific con-
tents of the agreement, signed on 25 November in
Peking by Romanian Deputy Premier Gheorghe Radulescu,
were not disclosed, although Radulescu reportedly
claimed in a speech that it included "supply of
equipment and installations for whole projects."
The Romanians and Chinese clearly indicated that
the agreement is intended to give tangible evidence
to their increasing political ties. This is the
first aid agreement of this kind that the Chinese
have concluded with a Warsaw Pact state in over ten
years, and as such, adds emphasis to Peking's con-
tinuing efforts to improve its position vis-a-vis
the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe.
The Chinese had already displayed their will-
ingness to help the Romanians with $20 million worth
of aid following Romania's floods in May and June.
Radulescu's six-day visit to Peking followed a con-
siderable exchange of delegations to and from Peking
and Bucharest since early last summer. The Chinese
have capitalized on these visits to make remarks
implicitly anti-Soviet. Although the Romanians have
refrained for the most part from associating them-
selves with these provocative statements, they have
not rejected them.
In terms of Bucharest's foreign policy the new
economic aid agreement with China will help balance
both Romania's earlier signature of a new treaty of
mutual assistance and an economic investment agree-
ment with Moscow, and Ceausescu's recent unprece-
dented trip to the US. The Bucharest leadership
may well have considered that because of its own
relatively favorable relations with Moscow, along
with the currently improved atmosphere between Mos-
cow and Peking, the time is right to move Romania
even closer to a neutral position within the Commu-
nist world. F7 I
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INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: An international con-
ference convening at The Hague Tuesday will try to
complete work on the convention on the unlawful
seizure of aircraft, but there are some difficult
problems.
The US hopes in particular to strengthen the
extradition and prosecution provisions of the draft
convention to increase its deterrent effect. A
specific aim would be to foreclose the possibility
that a hijacker claiming political motivations
might escape punishment altogether. A number of
countries are troubled by the US proposals, how-
ever, regarding them as an infringement of the
right to grant asylum. Similar proposals received
little support at a recent: meeting of the legal
committee of the International Civil Aviation Organ-
ization.
Another controversial. issue is the all-states
formula for accession, which is strongly favored
by the US in order to ensure the widest possible
adherence to the convention. West Germany, how-
ever, has taken vigorous exception to the provision,
maintaining that the East - West German negotia-
tions have reached a most crucial phase and that
the opening of any treaty to Pankow's signature
at this time could alter their outcome.
Since the two hijackings of civil aircraft
from the USSR to Turkey, the Soviets have moved
from the role of a relaxed bystander sympathetic
to Arab sensitivities to one of a hard-line oppo-
nent of all forms of aerial hijacking. Last week
they worked in the UN General Assembly against any
weakening of a relatively strong resolution adopted
without opposition. Moscow supported the provision
that interference with civil aviation be condemned
"whatever the pretext or motive" and sought a more
specific reference to extradition. It can be ex-
pected to support the US extradition-prosecution
initiative at The Hague and, of course, the all-
states formula.
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IAEA: How to finance the safeguards required
by the Nonproliferation Treaty will be one of the
most controversial issues before the special com-
mittee of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), which reconvenes in Vienna tomorrow.
The committee has been making substantial pro-
gress in developing a position on the safeguards
agreements that nonnuclear-weapon states adhering
to the NPT must negotiate to assure that fission-
able materials are not diverted from peaceful uses.
The financing question is a most important one,
however, since it will influence how much interna-
tional inspection of nuclear facilities there will
be.
The less developed countries will try to avoid
any significant increases in their IAEA assessments,
maintaining that they should not be burdened by the
anticipated increase in inspections, most of which
will be carried out in the more advanced nations.
India, which did not sign the NPT, has been playing
on these concerns. There has also been some con-
cern that acceptance of the US-UK voluntary offers
to open their nuclear facilities to inspection
could double the cost of the safeguards effort. As
a fallback position, the US could be willing to pay
a slightly higher percentage of the IAEA's costs
to facilitate the inspection program, but the other
advanced countries may balk at doing so.
Any reduction in-the anticipated level of in-
spection of commercial US nuclear facilities be-
cause of IAEA financing problems could arouse the
sensitivities of Japan in particular. Tokyo, which
has signed the treaty but has not ratified it, has
taken a hard line against "excessively" close IAEA
inspection, claiming that Japan is being treated
in a discriminatory fashion.
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GUINEA: Conditions have largely returned to
normal in Conakry following last Sunday's commando
raid, but anti-Portuguese fervor is still building
elsewhere in Africa.
Although roadblocks and identity checks were
still in evidence, Conakry's main thoroughfares
have been reopened, and schools, businesses, and
government offices are resuming normal activity.
There are extensive signs of physical damage, how-
ever, and army headquarters in downtown Conakry is
reported to be completely destroyed. Guinean forces
are reliably reported to have suffered at least 100
killed in the fighting.
The first known physical attacks on Portuguese
nationals and property occurred on 25 November in
Santa Isabel, capital of Equatorial Guinea. A num-
ber of Portuguese were seriously beaten, and Portu-
guese-owned residences and businesses were systemat-
ically sacked and destroyed. The rioters, mostly
youths, apparently enjoyed official sanction, inas-
much as police officers present during the disorders
made no effort to check them. In earlier demonstra-
tions in Ivory Coast and Nigeria, students protest-
ing Portuguese and alleged NATO involvement in the
raid on Conakry were dispersed by the police.
Logistic and other difficulties continue to
impede the dispatch of direct military aid to
Guinea by African countries in response to President
Toure's continuing appeals. Although Sierra Leone
has set up a small military base camp inside Guinea,
no other country has as yet sent troops. Nigeria
has provided arms, but it has not yet determined
how to transport to Conakry the force it pledged
to send. An Algerian mission that visited Conakry
to study the situation, perhaps with specific refer-
ence to logistics and routing problems, has returned
home.
(continued)
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President Toure has downgraded the importance
of the special UN mission now in Conakry to inves-
tigate the raid. Toure asserted that the facts of
the raid, including Portuguese involvement,.were
already well established and criticized the UN for
not immediately dispatching the airborne force t
Guinea had requested. 17
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NOTES
ARAB STATES: Syria has joined Egypt, Sudan,
and Libya in a four-power union, broadening the fed-
eration efforts the latter three countries started
last year in working toward a greater degree of
inter-Arab cooperation. This action, most certainly
calculated by Syrian leader Asad to generate support
for his regime, was high on the list of the plans
he announced after his takeover in mid-November.
Real political and military integration of the now
quadripartite union seems even less likely than
under the triune, but closer economic and cultural
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CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC - FRANCE: President
Bokassa has climaxed his recent campaign to improve
relations with Paris by replacing Foreign Minister
Kombot-Naguemon with a pro-Western appointee. Be-
ginning over a year ago, Kombot had engineered, with
Bokassa's blessing, a sharp turn to the left, in-
cluding the establishment of relations with most
Communist countries and an anti-French posture that
irritated Paris--the chief aid donor. Kombot's
policy failed to develop any significant new aid
sources--Bokassa's primary objective--and in Octo-
ber Paris let it be known that unless the Central
African Republic reversed its course, no new aid
commitments would be forthcoming.
(continued)
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TURKEY: The month-long parliamentary impasse
has been solved by the choice of a relatively un-
known and uncontroversial figure as Speaker. Prime
Minister Demirel's political image, both within the
ruling Justice Party and the government, however,
has been damaged, perhaps seriously. As Parliament
now turns to the business at hand, including such
major items as the national budget and at least six
motions of censure against the Demirel government,
there is no assurance that the prime minister can
hold his slim majority together. Every piece of
controversial legislation, of which the proposed
opium licensing bill will be one, constitutes a
potential pitfall which could topple the government.
TURKEY: With two bombing incidents in Ankara
yesterday, members of the Revolutionary Youth Feder-
ation (Dev Genc) appear to have launched their
threatened bombing campaign against widely scattered
US facilities in Turkey. Dev Genc, a radical social-
ist youth organization dedicated to fostering a so-
cialist state in Turkey, views the US presence in
Turkey as one of the major deterrents to its cause.
Although numbering perhaps only a few hundred, mem-
bers of Dev Genc have developed a strong influence
on Turkey's college and univers'ty campuses;!
L-litly are e ieve to have Deen responsible for some
of the previous bombing attempts against US Property
in Turkey.
(continued)
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The permanent representa-
tives of the Six are drawing up specific proposals
for the first stage of EC monetary union. The recom-
mendations, to cover the 1971-1973 period, will be
considered by the EC Council of Ministers on 14 De-
cember. The Dutch and West Germans would like to
spell out the eventual political and institutional
requirements of economic and monetary union, but
Paris prefers to avoid any such commitment at this
time. Whether the members will be able to institute
the first stage by 1 January remains to be seen, but
they now appear willing to play down their familiar
doctrinal differences to reach agreement on the ini-
tial steps.
28 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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