GRIM NEW INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT RELEASED ON USSR STRATEGIC ARMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-01315R000400390116-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2004
• Sequence Number: 116
• Publication Date: April 1, 1979
• Content Type: MAGAZINE

Approved For Release 2005/01/12 CIA-RDP88-01315R000400390116-1
ARMED FORCES JOURNAL. INTERNATIONAL
April 1979
Grim NvO teJligence L" 4/i 2 . o t N t a Cntl !I 3-s
On US SR 5t '&ttgko A,r,'ms
A NEW NA'T1C1'N:1I. INT'F:l.l,u;E;tir'1:
ESTIMATE, NI1= I I-?-8."paints adarke.r
picture" of Soviet strat:gic arms pruort.-5:
than its predecessor, complet,d in the fall
of 1977, informed Administration sou:cz:s,
have told AFJ. The highly classified tlew
assessment is nicknamed "N IE Eleven and
Three-Eights,"
According to sources who took part in
preparing the assessment and are
intimately familiar with its final content, it
contains "nothing new or startling, but
shows things moving more rapidly than
before." Specifically. "the Minuteman
problem is coming faster," according to
one source, a reference to the land-based
missile's increasing vulnerability to a
.Soviet first strike because "the whole I
accuracy picture" of Soviet ICBMs is
"changing dramatically." Contributing to
Minuteman's earlier than expected
vulnerability is the fast rate at which the
USSR has been "fractionating"its missiles,
that is, adding greater numbers of
warheads to them.
Sources say the new assessment projects
much uncertainty on Soviet force
loadings," how many warheads of what l
type each missile carries. "We don't know
how they're loaded; we can't look under the
nose-cone." Under SALT 11, the Soviets as
well as the US would be prohibited from
deploying land-based intercontinental r
ballistic missiles with more than ten
warheads each. However, a New York
Tme,s report of March 14th by Richard
Blurt says that the CIA has evidence the
Soviets have been adapting their largest
missile, the SS-18, to carry 14 warheads.
The SS-I8 was tested more than a year
ago, in October of 1977, with a new;
warhead called "Mod 4" that
demonstrated an accuracy of 0.15 nautical
miles, or less than Y 0 meters. The!
Defense Department tells AFJ that it hash
no evidence the Soviets have deployed
ICBMs with an accuracy better than 5(i)1
meters. t' rel
Approved For Release 2005/01/12 : CIA-RDP88-01315R000400390116-1