CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020700050001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 14, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
N2 042
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14 December 1971
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No. 0298/71
14 December 1971
central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Situation report. (Page 1)
WEST GERMANY: Brandt government promptly submits
Eastern treaties for ratification despite criticism
of inter-German agreements. (Page 4)
YUGOSLAVIA: Arrests accompany crackdown on Croatian
nationalists. (Page 6)
COSTA RICA: Figueres determined to override opposi-
tion to opening of Soviet embassy. (Page 7)
GREECE: Papadopoulos may appoint more military of-
f cers to civil service posts. (Page 8)
CHINA - SIERRA LEONE: Peking has offered economic
and military aid. (Page 9)
BELGIUM: Military service may be shortened (Page 10)
SUDAN-CHINA: Sudanese delegation (Page 10)
URUGUAY: Measures to combat balance of payments
problem (Page 11)
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Kushtia " Jaydebpil
nnrrn
Magura, Daudkand1
'Jessore Chandpur
D
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r INDIA-PAKISTAN:
On the East Pakistan battlefront, an Indian
spokesman claimed yesterday that Indian forces
would have Dacca under siege within 48 hours.
Senior Pakistani officers reportedly thought the
attacks on the city might begin even sooner. New
Delhi claims that its main force, which is approach-
ing Dacca from the northeast, has reached the last
river crossing some six miles from the capital.
However, the Indians have reportedly been meeting
increased Pakistani. resistance at that point. An-
other Indian column is approaching the city from
the north and has reportedly reached the town of
Jaydebpur, about 12 miles from the capital. Both
of these columns have apparently been reinforced
with airlifted troops. A third Indian column has
not yet been able to cross the Meghna River at
Daudkandi, 22 miles southeast of the capital. To
the south, the Indians claim that units advancing
on Chittagong are less than 20 miles from that
city.
(continued)
14 Dec! 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Nayachor*I
Hyderabad
1'!VEST
PAKISTAN
RANN OF KUTCH
Lahore
~tilM
4. Indian attack
4- Pakistani attack
Road
Railroad
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C
On the western front, neither side has made
any important gains in the past few days. The Pak-
istanis, however, may be preparing to attempt a new
offensive in the Chhamb sector. Western correspond-
ents have reported seeing heavy Pakistani military
traffic moving toward the front in that area on 12
December. The Indians, meanwhile, are moving up
reinforcements in order to prevent the Pakistanis
from advancing eastward from Chhamb into the Kash-
mir Valle
IT he Pa istanis hold Chhamb but have
not been able to push across a river that Indian
troops have been defending immediately east of the
town. The Indians are anxious to keep the Pakistanis
from advancing to Akhnur some 18 miles east of
Chhamb, where they could cut the highway that serves
as a key transportation and supply route between
northern India and Kashmir.
Indian criticism of the US is increasing. Mrs.
Gandhi., speaking in New Delhi on 12 December, was
strongly critical of the US in all but name. She
expressed irritation at a "far-away country which
says to keep quiet about Bangla Desh" and at reports
that some country says it has some agreement or
treaty with Pakistan." US officials in Calcutta
report that the tempo and virulence of anti-American
demonstrations there have increased markedly in the
past few days and that this trend is likely to con-
tinue. In Islamabad, meanwhile, some 2,000 Paki-
stanis gathered at the airport on 11 December and
jeered at Soviet citizens being evacuated from the
country.
At the UN last night, the Soviet Union, as ex-
pected, vetoed the cease-fire - withdrawal resolution
proposed by the US. The UK and France abstained
as they had last week in the votes on similar oro-
posals.
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WEST GERMANY: The Brandt government promptly
submitted its Eastern treaties for ratification,
despite reservations in some quarters that in the
inner-Berlin and inter-German agreements initialed
Saturday government negotiators settled for less
than ideal terms.
Agreement in the inner-Berlin talks became
possible when the West Berlin Senat, under pressure
from Bonn to reach an agreement, decided that the
compromises already reached with the East Germans
were not likely to be improved upon without further
delay in the negotiations. The Berlin Social Demo-
crats approved the Senat's decision. Since the
Social Democrats are in the majority in the Berlin
House of Representatives, they should be able to
defeat any attempt by the opposition Christian
Democrats to reject the agreement. This break-
through cleared the way for initialing of the inter-
German agreement on transit.
Although the inner-Berlin agreement will fa-
cilitate visits by West Berliners to East Germany
and East Berlin, the agreement is vulnerable to
continuing criticism that the visiting rights of
West Berliners are in some respects less than those
of West Germans. Berlin's major political parties,
including the Social Democrats, forced postponement
of the initialing on 4 December over aspects of
this question.
officials in Bonn and West Berlin are attempt-
ing to head off further criticism by characterizing
both agreements as less than ideal but a beginning
for future negotiations that will relax tensions
rising from the "unnatural conditions" existing
between the two German states. Government offi-
cials also point to the provisions for joint com-
missions set up to clarify interpretation and im-
plementation as a means for further normalization
of relations.
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The two German governments are expected to
sign formally by the weekend, following an exchange
of accompanying documents between the two countries
and the Four Powers. The agreements will not enter
into force, however, until the signing of the final
protocol of the Four-Power Berlin accord of 3 Sep-
tember. This is expected to take place in three to
four months, more or less simultaneously with ratifi-
cation of last year's treaties with Moscow and Warsaw.
The Brandt government, anxious to get on with im-
plementation of its Eastern policy, submitted the
treaties for ratification yesterday.
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YUGOSLAVIA: Zagreb police arrested approxi-
mately 30 peoplje over the weekend in the wake of
disturbances arising from the current crackdown on
Croatian nationalists.
Fourteen students were arrested Saturday and
charged with instigating "the unconditional over-
throw of social and state order and of representa-
tive bodies" for their part in the recently ended
Zagreb student strike. Another 14 were arrested
Sunday in the aftermath of several incidents at
the city's main square and at youth hostels where
the Yugoslav news media report there were public
calls for a strike against the university and for
demonstrations in the street.
Croatian officials also have admitted the
arrest of a journalist, Bruno Ante Busic, whose
articles in Hrvatski Tjednik (mouthpiece of Croa-
tian nationalists-)"inflamed national hatred and
discord among our peoples." Elsewhere in Croatia,
party organizations have wasted little time de-
nouncing the alleged nationalist excesses of cer-
tain leaders and in the coastal city of Zadar four
officials resigned late Sunday, joining the Croat
Republic party chief and her three close associates
who quit earlier that day in deference to Tito's
call for a purge of the party leadership. No re-
placements as yet have been announced.
Zagreb authorities, determined to use all
means necessary to prevent the situation from get-
ting out of hand, have announced that they will
intervene in all cases of disturbances of public
order. It remains to be seen whether the authori-
ties will be able to prevent further outbursts.
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bE-
COSTA RICA: President Figueres is determined
to override opposition to the opening of a Soviet
embassy in Costa Rica.
In a televised speech on 9 December, Figueres
defended his decision of two weeks ago to accredit
two Soviet diplomats, replying point by point to
the sharp criticism that has followed. Figueres
repeated many of his old arguments, including Costa
Rica's need to dea:L with the Communist world in
this "era of negotiations," but his major argument
focused on the economic advantages that diplomatic
relations would bring.
He announced plans to manufacture aluminum in
Costa Rica using Soviet hydroelectric power equip-
ment that would be financed by coffee exports. The
deal, which would take care of coffee surpluses for
the "next five or six years," hinges on "normalizing"
relations between the two countries, according to
Figueres. The aluminum plant scheme is an old one
that is still far from realization, but it is pos-
sible that some small purchases of Soviet equipment
have been negotiated that could lead to early coffee
sales.
Figueres said he was willing to include the
issue of a Soviet presence in a plebiscite covering
other questions, but only after relations with the
USSR are normalized.
A demonstration held on 11 December to protest
the establishment of diplomatic relations was peace-
ful. A scheduled counter demonstration by Communists
and other supporters of the Figueres move was post-
poned until today, thus avoiding possible clashes
between. the two groups.
Although protests by conservatives, anti-Com-
munists, and opposition politicians have been strong,
they have not yet reached the level that forced
Figueres to back off from a similar plan last July.
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GREECE: Prime Minister Papadopoulos may turn
increas ni gly to the military to fill civil service
posts in the months ahead.
Regime efforts to bring ex-politicians into
the government have failed so far, largely because
most of them still refuse to support the regime
fully. Papadopoulos has replaced several civilian
officials of uncertain loyalty with military men
in the past two years.
Although the changes have improved bureaucratic
efficiency, civilian employees, particularly in the
Foreign Ministry, are concerned about their careers.
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Papadopoulos,
a seeming y astute judge of his colleagues, will
probably continue his juggling act between civilian
and military personnel. The prime minister will be
strongly influenced by the fact that the military
is his primary source of support.
In addition, it is rumored that Papadopoulos
may be considering changing the government from a
constitutional monarchy to a republic. A statement
apparently made by Papadopoulos that the elimination
of the monarchy would be necessary before elections
could be held was leaked by the regime's press spokes-
man in mid-November. Papadopoulos' reported plan is
said to have the support of the important military
leaders who have long opposed the return of King
Constantine. The rumors, however, may be designed
to test public opinion.
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CHINA - SIERRA LEONE: Peking offered economic
assistance and a imCr i! t' ed. amount of military aid during
the visit to China last summer by a Sierra Leonean
delegation, when recognition was announced, according
to recent information.
A finance official in Freetown said that the
Chinese offered $40 million in economic aid to be
repaid over a 50-year period. In addition, the Chi-
nese will extend $1.7 million in credits, one half
of which is to be used for road repairs. At least
35 Chinese agricultural technicians will be working
in the country by January, probably on rice produc-
tion projects. These technicians will partially
replace the Nationalist Chinese who left after Free-
town recognized Peking last summer.
The president of Sierra Leone reportedly has
said that China also would provide several helicopters
and gunboats free of charge. A small shipment of
arms and ammunition, which arrived in Freetown last
month, probably was covered by the same agreement.
I I
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BELGIUM: The two political parties engaged
in forming a government, following last month's
national elections, have agreed in principle to a
reduction in the period of military service. The
Socialists, who are negotiating a government pro-
gram with the more powerful Social Christians, cam-
paigned for an eventual six-month tour. Current
discussions focus on a reduction from 15 to 12 months
if served in Belgium, and 12 to 10 if served in West
Germany. Defense expenditures do not command broad
public support; Belgium was the only NATO member
that failed this year to make its full contribution
to the European Defense Improvement Program.
SUDAN-CHINA: A delegation headed by Vice
President and Defense Minister Khalid Hasan Abbas
is en route to Peking for an official visit. The
Sudanese may seek military assistance in addition
to the generous economic aid already extended by
Peking in part to compensate for the apparent de-
cline in Soviet military aid following the coup
last July. China's arms production capabilities,
its own defense requirements, and its other foreign
arms commitments, however, will restrict the scope
of any new military aid agreement. The net effect
may be to create opportunities for Khartoum to re-
turn to its traditional Western sources, a tendency
that had been evident in the economic field even
before last summer.
(continued)
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URUGUAY: With elections over, the government
is trying of combat the deteriorating balance of
payments situation. Although Uruguay is still un-
willing to devalue the peso formally, most foreign
transactions are now being made at various depre-
ciated rates. Beef exports, for example, are being
encouraged by the use of a rate 50 percent above
the official rate, while most imports are being dis-
couraged by a rate double the official one. The
government has further tightened import controls by
increasing surcharges and prepayment requirements
and by extending the total ban on capital goods
imports until 31 March. The higher cost of imported
goods will be reflected in further increases in the
cost of living index, which even, before the new
restrictions was expected to rise near 60 percent
next year.
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Secret
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