CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024800090003-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 29, 2003
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: July 11, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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State Department review completed
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11 July 1973
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11 July
Central Intelligence Bulletin
FRANCE: Pompidou expresses
disarray.
essimism over European
PORTUGAL: Portuguese prepare position for talks
on renewal of Azores agreement.
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*FRANCE: PRESIDENT POMPIDOU HAS REPORTEDLY EX- I
PRESSED DEEP PESSIMISM OVER THE MONETARY CRISIS, THE
DISARRAY OF WESTERN EUROPE, AND FRENCH INABILITY TO
ORTRAY
CHANGE THE SITUATION, GOING SO FAR AS TO P
WESTERN EUROPE AS BEING ON THE BRINK OF A RAPID SLIDE
INTO OOFINLANDIZATION.00
SEVERAL JOURNALISTS, WHO MEET REGULARLY WITH
POMPIDOU, HAVE RECENTLY REMARKED IN ALMOST IDENTICAL
TERMS ON THE PRESIDENTOS CURRENT MOOD. THEY SAY
POMPIDOU SEES THE DOLLAR CRISIS AS GENERALLY DEBILI-
TATING FOR THE WEST, NOT ONLY BECAUSE IT ENDANGERS
RESOLUTION OF TRADE ISSUES BUT ALSO BECAUSE IT EN-
COURAGES INTENSE CONGRESSIONAL PRESSURE FOR US TROOP
REDUCTIONS IN EUROPE. THIS, PLUS SUSPICION THAT THE
US AND USSR HAVE AGREED TO BAR ATOMIC WEAPONS FROM A
EUROPEAN CONFLICT, CAUSE GRAVE DOUBT OVER US WILLING-
NESS TO DEFEND WESTERN EUROPE.
POMPIDOU FEELS THESE DOUBTS CREATE AN OOEVERY
MAN FOR HIMSELF'd PSYCHOLOGY THAT COULD EVENTUALLY
PROPEL WEST GERMANY INTO NEUTRALITY. THE SOVIETS,
HE SAYS, HAVE EVERY INTENTION OF EXPLOITING THESE
VULNERABILITIES. THE FRENCH PRESIDENT IS PARTICU-
LARLY FRUSTRATED BY FRANCEOS LACK OF CONTROL OVER
EVENTS.
POMPIDOU'S REMARKS TO THE NEWSMEN CORRESPOND
TO LONG-STANDING FRENCH CONCERNS. THESE APPARENTLY
HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY THE RECENT EMPHASIS ON RELA-
TIONS BETWEEN THE SUPERPOWERS, AND PARTICULARLY BY
THE SUBSTANCE OF BREZHNEV'S SUMMITS IN WASHINGTON
AND PARIS. THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF AN IMPEND-
ING SHIFT IN FRENCH POLICY, BUT IN RECENT WEEKS
FRANCE HAS BEEN REVIEWING ITS STANCE ON INTRA-
EUROPEAN ISSUES, ESPECIALLY AS THESE INVOLVE TIES
WITH AND AMONG THE SUPERPOWERS. POMPIDOU INSTRUCTED
FOREIGN MINISTER JOBERT TO .OWAKE PEOPLE UP TO THE
WEST'S INSECURITYOO AT THE CSCE MEETINGS IN HELSINKI
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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LAST WEEK. HE MAY HAVE STRESSED HIS CONCERN IN OR-
DER TO INSPIRE THE NEWSMEN TO TAKE UP THE CRY IN
HOPE THAT THE OTHER EUROPEANS WOULD RESPOND WITH
FIRM STANDS ON THE ISSUES IN QUESTION, PARTICULARLY
Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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*PORTUGAL: LISBON OFFICIALS ARE MANEUVERING
FOR ADVANTAGE BUT ARE ALSO HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
FALLBACK POSITION FOR TALKS NEXT MONTH ON RENEWAL
OF THE AZORES BASE AGREEMENT.
THE PRESENT AGREEMENT PERMITS THE STATIONING
OF US FORCES AT LAJES FIELD UNTIL FEBRUARY 1974,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL SIX MONTHS EXTENSION WHILE RE-
NEWAL OF THE AGREEMENT IS DISCUSSED. WHEN THE MAT-
TER TER WAS LAST NEGOTIATED IN 1977? THE US AGREED TO
EXTEND A $30-MILLION LOAN UNDER THE PL-480 PROGRAM,
$1 MILLION FOR EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN
PORTUGAL, AND NON-MILITARY EXCESS EQUIPMENT WORTH
$5 MILLION. THE PORTUGUESE WERE GREATLY DISAPPOINTED
AT THE SIZE OF THE US QUID PRO QUO AND ARE ESPECIALLY?
DISSATISFIED BECAUSE THE US HAS NOT COME UP WITH EX-
CESS EQUIPMENT THAT LISBON IS WILLING TO ACCEPT.
FOREIGN MINISTER PATRICIO TOLD SECRETARY ROGERS
LAST WEEK THAT MORE DIRECT QUID PRO QUO WOULD BE RE-
QUIRED UNDER ANY NEW AGREEMENT, AND LISBON WOULD BE
PREPARED TO CLOSE OUT THE BASE IF THE US COULD NOT
OFFER MORE DIRECT COMPENSATION. THIS COULD TAKE
THE FORM, HE SAID, OF US SUPPORT FOR PORTUGUESE
"PROBLEMS," BY WHICH HE MEANT US DIPLOMATIC SUP-
PORT FOR PORTUGAL"S EFFORTS TO RETAIN ITS AFRICAN
TERRITORIES. LISBON HAS SOUGHT SUCH SUPPORT IN EAR-
LIER RENEWALS OF THE BASE AGREEMENT.
IN A CONVERSATION WITH A US SENATOR IN LISBON
LAST WEEK ON EXTENDING THE AGREEMENT, PRIME MINISTER
CAETANO STATED THAT IF THE US CONGRESS LACKS SUFFI-
CIENT INTEREST IN THE BASE TO APPROVE A SUITABLE
AGREEMENT, THEN THE US MUST LEAVE. IN THE ENSUING
DISCUSSION OVER THE VALUE OF LAJES TO NATO IN THE
FIELD OF ANTISUBMARINE WARFARE, CAETANO IMPLIED
THAT LAJES MIGHT BE OFFERED AS A NATO BASE FOR USE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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IN PEACETIME IN LIEU OF LIMITING IT TO THE US AS
IN THE PRESENT AGREEMENT. THIS PROPOSED SOLUTION
COULD CAUSE A STORM IN NATO, HOWEVER, WHERE THE
DUTCH AND THE SCANDINAVIANS MIGHT RAISE OBJECTIONS
TO A LARGER NATO ROLE FOR AN UNDEMOCRATIC COUNTRY.
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*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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