CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010038-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
26 August 1974
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 26, 1974
CONTENTS
CYPRUS: Little progress expected in diplomatic sphere.
P age 1)
PORTUGAL: President Spinola has an edge in power contest.
Page 5j
PORTUGUESE AFRICA: Lisbon is close to major settlements
with rebel organizations. (Page 7)
ETHIOPIA: Military committee compels Prime Minister to
make cabinet changes. (Page 11)
ARGENTINA: The Montoneros expect to be outlawed.
(Page 13
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 14)
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 26, 1974
The response to Moscow?s proposal for an enlarged
conference on Cyprus involving all Security Council mem-
bers and the interested parties to the dispute has been
mixed but generally negative. Greece and the Greek
Cypriots are expected to announce their formal but qual-
ified agreement to the proposal today, but Ankara, which
thus far has kept silent on the plan, is expected to re-
ject it. The fact that the key countries are advocating
two different solutions--Greece the Soviet UN proposal,
and Turkey a reconvening of the Geneva talks--bodes ill
for any immediate movement in the diplomatic sphere.
Britain, which had been working to win Greek agree-
ment to reopen the Geneva negotiations, initially gave
a chilly reception to the Soviet plan. London now re-
portedly says, however, that it will not oppose such a
proposal if it is acceptable to the other interested
parties. The US mission to the UN believes that the
plan is not likely to win acceptance in the immediate
future unless there are new Turkish provocations on
Cyprus.
Archbishop Makarios, in what may be an effort to
inject himself back into the picture, offered a compro-
mise formula. Under his plan, discussions would be re-
convened under UN auspices and would involve the five
permanent Security Council members as well as the parties
directly involved.
A number of meetings among the concerned parties
have taken place in the last several days and more are
scheduled. Cypriot President Clerides, meeting on Sat-
urday with Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis, is reported
by the press to have agreed to place strict controls on
paramilitary forces in Cyprus, particularly the right-
wing EOKA-B. The two leaders also decided that Greek
regular army officers who serve in the National Guard
and who were associated with the coup that deposed
Makarios should be recalled to Greece very soon.
Clerides stressed that there was complete agreement
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 26, 1974
between Athens and Nicosia on future policy toward the
island. The-Cypriot President made clear that Turkish
"concessions" were not substantial enough to warrant-a
reconvening of the Geneva talks.
Clerides' statement that Greek Cypriots would con-
duct guerrilla warfare if necessary to restore their
rights and his acceptance of the Soviet proposal led
Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash to cancel a sched-
uled meeting between the two. Denktash told the US am-
bassador in Nicosia, however, that he may still be will-
ing to meet Clerides.
UN Secretary General Waldheim has also been on the
move. After conferring with Prime Minister Karamanlis
on Sunday, he flew to Nicosia and will later meet with
Turkish officials in Ankara as well before returning to
Athens. Waldheim will concentrate on the role and man-
date of UN peace-keeping forces on the island and on the
plight of the refugees. He is also expected to discuss
the implications for convening a conference along the
lines of the Soviet plan.
In Athens, the Karamanlis government has taken
additional measures to consolidate its position. Former
strongman Brigadier General Ioannidis, along with sev-
eral other senior officers passed over for promotion,
was retired on Saturday. Pensions were abolished for
former ministers who held their posts without having
been elected as deputies.
The statement on August 22 by newly appointed
Greek army commander Ioannis Davos will also be seen
as a plus for Karamanlis. Davos stressed that the army
at all levels should be exclusively concerned with mil-
itary problems. The US embassy in Athens interprets
Davos' remarks as a strong pledge to the government
that the army will "stay in the barracks" and out of
national policy-making.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 26, 1974
Despite the general popularity of such moves as the
military reshuffle that brought Davos to the fore and
the Greek withdrawal from military participation in NATO,
Karamanlis still has to contend with the frustrations
arising from Greece's inability thus far to make any
headway on the Cyprus dispute. Two senior Greek Foreign
Ministry officials have expressed deep concern to the US
embassy about-the current deterioration in Greek-American.
relations as a result of the Cyprus crisis. They stressed
that the US should remember that Karamanlis wants to
avoid irreparable damage to Athens' relations with the
US and Western Europe but that the Prime Minister has
to contend with national frustrations which result in
placing the blame for Greek policy failures on the coun-
try's traditional allies.
According to one of the officials, the Greek gov-
ernment in the coming months will be asking the US to
renegotiate the modalities of many of its agreements
with Athens, some of which--such as the status of forces
agreement--were termed "anachronistic" by the official.
Recognizing that cooperation with the US is in Greece's
best interests, Karamanlis wants only to "restructure"
cooperation with Washington but not "dismantle" it.
In Cyprus, too, there is continued hostility toward
the US but no further major anti-American outbursts.
Even the murder of Ambassador Davies has been greeted
with reserve by some who feel the US "had it coming"
because of its alleged pro-Turkey tilt. The demonstra-
tions scheduled by leftist leader Vassos Lyssarides for
Saturday failed to materialize, but another protest--
this one about the refugees and not anti-American in
tone--was expected yesterday.
In Turkey, an aide considered to be the closest
policy adviser to Prime Minister Ecevit has said that
Turkey will insist on a permanent zone to guarantee
the security of the Turkish Cypriot community. He added
that the zone must be no smaller than 28 percent. The
US embassy in Nicosia, assessing Turkish intentions,
says Ankara has carefully limited its operation to win-
ning enough territory to ensure that it will be in a
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 26, 1974
predominant position to dictate the future status of
Cyprus. The embassy believes Turkey wants a two-
canton confederal' system and will trade territory in
return for a transfer of the populations. The embassy
also believes Ankara will make every effort to hold on
to Famagusta port or, at a minimum, to insist on the
Turkish community's right to import freely from the
mainland. This could also be Ankara's position on the
Nicosia airport.
Militarily, the situation on the island has been
quiet and no major cease-fire violations have been re-
ported over the weekend. Senior UN officials, however,
report that Turkish troops are continuing to apply pres-
sure, including threats of violence, to force UN eace-
keeping troops out of northern Cyprus.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
PORTUGAL
August 26, 1974
President Spinola appears to have a slight edge in
the continuing contest for power with the Armed Forces
Movement.
The current dispute centers on Spinola's request
for more authority. He feels that the final decision-
making power is spread too widely within the government
and wants the Armed Forces Coordinating Committee to be
downgraded or eliminated entirely. Spinola's threats
to resign two weeks ago stemmed from frustration over
his inability to execute his policies under the present
arrangement.
Military officers are being polled as to whether
the committee should be disbanded and Spinola given a
vote of confidence by the military. This move would
allow Spinola to implement the movement's programs as
he sees them by using the hierarchical structure of the
armed forces and the government. In the past, he has
had to contend with direct supervision of government
decisions by the committee to ensure fulfillment of the
movement's program.
One of the factors which may work in Spinola's fa-
vor is the rift within the Armed Forces Movement. The
provisional government has announced that the committee
offices are to be moved from a government building to
the headquarters of armed forces Chief of Staff Costa
Gomes. Major Vitor Alves, one of the three key leaders
of the committee and a supporter of Spinola, explained
to an embassy official that the committee's monitoring
function is no longer necessary because members of the
movement are now in the cabinet. He added that the
move is to facilitate the incorporation of the commit-
tee into the armed forces structure.
General Otelo de
Carvalho, representing the more radical elements of the
movement, has thrown his weight against dissolution of
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 26, 1974
the committee. When the Armed Forces Movement announced
its support of Spinola in the press on August 20, Otelo
retaliated the following day with a false statement de-
nying that any meeting had been held to authorize such
support. Spinola faces particularly strong opposition
from the Portuguese navy, which reportedly feels that
the Armed Forces Movement's program can be carried out
without him.
The great majority of the officers in the armed
forces appear to be politically neutral, but feel that
they must side with Spinola in a showdown. The Presi-
dent will also benefit from General Costa Gomes' support
against the committee, and this reportedly is the decid-
ing factor for many officers.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
PORTUGUESE AFRICA
August 26, 1974
After several months of negotiations, Lisbon appears
on the verge of major settlements with rebel organizations
in Portuguese Guinea and Mozambique that will set the
stage for the territories' independence.
The Algerian Foreign Ministry announced on Sunday
that Portuguese officials and leaders of the "Republic
of Guinea-Bissau" will sign an agreement in Algiers today
on the transfer of power to the rebel government. The
two sides have held several secret negotiating sessions
in Algiers since late June. The Portuguese news agency
speculated on Saturday that the two sides would announce
the territory?s independence on September 12.
In Mozambique, the acting governor-general yesterday
officially announced that an interim government, com-
posed presumably of Portuguese officials and leaders of
the rebel Front for the Liberation of Mozambique, would
be established "within the next few days."
The Portuguese ambassador to the UN told US embassy
officials in Lisbon on Friday that President Spinola has
accepted a plan for a transitional government for Mgzam-
bique that was recently worked out between Foreign Min-
ister Soares and rebel leaders in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Another round of talks to work out final details is
scheduled to take place in early September, probably in
Lusaka, Zambia.
According to the ambassador, the agreement calls
for a provisional government that will include a Portu-
guese high commissioner and a Front prime minister.
The Front will be given a two-thirds majority in the
provisional cabinet. The territory will be granted full
independence in June 1975.
After some initial hesitation, Lisbon has been
forced to accept the fact that the Front is the only
organization of any consequence in Mozambique and that
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the idea of a popular referendum for the territory, as
earlier suggested by President Spinola, is unrealistic.
Although some anti-Front political organizations are be-
ginning to emerge, they are not strong enough, singly or
collectively, to challenge the Front's dominant position.
Their presence, however, can be expected to add to the
general political confusion that is certain to attend an
extended period of transition.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 26, 1974
Ethiopia's dominant Armed Forces Coordinating Com-
mittee yesterday compelled Prime Minister Mikael to make
a number of cabinet changes and has arrested several
additional high-ranking officials, including one ousted
cabinet minister. The committee also appointed a gov-
ernor-general for Eritrea sympathetic to its recently
announced conciliatory policy toward that province and
took a symbolic step to reduce further the Emperor's
authority by nationalizing his palaces.
Last month the able but stiff-necked civilian
Prime Minister angered the military committee by includ-
ing in his cabinet four ministers who were objectionable
to the committee. Mikael now has dropped three of the
four from the cabinet and has given the fourth a lesser
ministry. The changes had been anticipated for some
weeks. The military committee earlier was reported to
have demanded the arrest of all four ministers for cor-
ruption, but only one has been arrested.
The new governor-general of Eritrea is a civilian.
He replaces a military officer who was considered by the
committee a major obstacle to new policy initiatives
aimed at ending the decade-long revolt. Last week the
Ethiopian government announced that Minister of Defense
Aman would soon visit Eritrea to recommend far-reaching
new programs.
Nationalizing the Emperor's palaces appears to be
only symbolic, inasmuch as the committee has already
stripped the 82-year-old leader of his crown council
secretariat and intelligence organization and has ar-
rested many of his aristocratic coterie.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 26, 1974
ARGENTINA
Increasing conflict between conservative and left-
ist factions within the Peronist movement has caused
many observers to predict that Argentina's largest po-
litical organization will break up in the near future.
A leader of the Montoneros, the most militant Peronist
youth organization,, recently indicated, however, that
the Montoneros have no intention of defecting, even
though he foresees that the group will be outlawed as
the government continues to move to the right.
If the military chiefs and Lopez Rega,
declare the
group illegal, Montonero lea ers apparently do not in-
tend to break formally with the Peronist movement or
to go underground "officially." One spokesman for the
Montoneros has expressed opposition to the confronta-
tion tactics used by the outlawed People's Revolutionary
Army, saying that they precipitate indiscriminate re-
prisals by security forces against all leftist organiza-
tions. He indicated that although the Montoneros may
be forced to join with other groups in a "war of liber-
ation," the organization has sufficient funds and arms
to retain its institutional integrity. He said that
while the Montoneros admire the Cuban revolution, Cuba
has not provided them with material assistance.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 26, 1974
Before Peron's return to power, the Montoneros
were the principal Peronist terrorist group operating
in Argentina. Although they have become increasingly
opposed to the orientation of the government, there may
be differences of opinion over strategy within the lead-
ership. Nevertheless, Montonero leaders have maintained
their pragmatic socialist orientation, in contrast to the
dogmatic Marxist approach of other guerrilla organiza-
tions. Because the Montoneros--who claim to have 15,000
members, of whom 2,500 can be considered potential com-
batants--have wide support among slum dwellers, rank-
and-file workers, and students, it is to their advantage
to maintain their position as the revolutionary vanguard
of Peronism even if they are forced underground
Malaysia: Prime Minister Tun Razak's National
Front coalition was returned to office with an over-
whelming majority in the country's first general elec-
tion in five years. With election results still com-
ing in, the coalition has already won about a four-
fifths majority in the parliament. Voting was peace-
ful, in contrast to the 1969 elections which set off
communal rioting.
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