NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010034-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 34
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National 1 ntel l igence
Bulletin
State Dept. review
completed.
Top Secret
N?_ 639
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STAT
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 7, 1974
CONTENTS
USSR: Brezhnev delivers speech at celebration of 25th.
anniversary of the East German state. (Page 1)
ETHIOPIA: Tensions remain high. (Page 4)
PORTUGAL-SPAIN: Madrid alarmed over ascendancy of left-
ists in Portugal. (Page 6)
ITALY: Political leaders consult today on government
cr sis. (Page 7)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 8)
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 7, 1974
General Secretary Brezhnev spoke in East Berlin yes-r
terday in celebration of the 25th anniversary of the Ger-
man Communist state.
Much of his 70-minute speech was dedicated to the
event at hand and underscored the .importance of both
Germanies to Soviet policy. Brezhnev mentioned West
German Chancellor Schmidt's scheduled visit to Moscow
late this month and cited approvingly Schmidt's pledge
to continue the Ostpolitik of Willy Brandt.
The Soviet leader appeared to be calling for diplo-
matic stability with regard to Berlin. He emphasized
the importance of the Quadripartite Agreement on the
city to relations between Moscow and Bonn and warned
against West German attempts to obtain special advan-
tages" in West Berlin or to make the city an object of
a "political game." The latter references appear ~o be
in .reaction to Bonn's recent establishment of a federal
environmental office in West~Berlin.
In private talks with East German party chief
Honecker, Brezhnev is expected to give special attention
to each government's relations with West Germany.
Brezhnev recited the gamut of Soviet arms Control
proposals without showing any signs of give in the
USSR's positions. As anticipated, he stressed the nego-
tiations an European security and cooperation at Geneva.
As he did in a recent speech during the Moscow visit of
Hungarian party chief Kadar, Brezhnev placed no time
limit for the conclusion of the conference and did not
call for a summit-level conclusion to the negotiations.
Regarding China, Brezhnev chastized its Maoist lead
ers but said that Moscow would continue to try to normal-
ize relations with Peking.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 7, 1974
Brezhnev was the only Communist party chief at the
East German celebration. He was accompanied by Foreign
Minister Gromyko and Defense Minister Grechko, bath mem--
bers of the Politburo.
Presumably, the absence of other Communist party
chiefs was intended to emphasize the special relation-
ship between East Germany and the USSR. Five years ago,
at a similar celebration, all the East European party
chiefs but the unwanted Romanian were on hand.
Today marks the entry into force of a new East.Ger-
man constitution.- It discards the old document's hope
for eventual reunification of Germany and declares in-
stead an "eternal" alliance with the USSR.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 7, 1974
Tension remained high in Addis Ababa this weekend,
as more troops moved into the Ethiopian capital. As of
Saturday, according to the US embassy, efforts were
still being made to reach a compromise among the vaxi-
ous military factions and avoid an armed confrontation.
The identity of the opposing groups is still not
clear and the allegiances of key military elements are
still in doubt. Military movements have continued, but
largely at night. Such moves have been hard to follow
since the curfew remains in effect.
The military authorities in Asmara, the capital of
the northern province of Eritrea, announced yesterday
that the security situation had "worsened" and imposed
a dawn-to-dusk curfew. Late last month, there were in-
dications that the Eritrean Liberation Front, which
controls most of the countryside, was planning to renew
terrorist operation in Asmara.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October ~, 1974
PORTUGAL-SPAIN
The Spanish government is alarmed over what it views.
as the significant boost the Portuguese left received as
a result of former president Spinola's resignation last
week.
An official of the Spanish Foreign Ministry has
told the U5 embassy that Madrid does not believe the
leftists have asserted full. control in Lisbon, but it
was clear to him that they were in the ascendancy. He
noted that the increasingly unstable conditions in Por-
tugal had, for the first time, led to a significant flow
of refugees to Spain.
The official also indicated that the Portuguese
situation would serve to strengthen the position of cer-
tain Spanish right-wing politicians who oppose increas-
ing democratization in Spain.
Meanwhile, the celebration in Portugal of the 64th
anniversary of the republic passed without incident.
Both President Costa Gomes and Prime Minister Gonsalves
appeared in public and delivered short speeches. Gon-
salves praised Costa Gomes as "the most illustrious mil-
itary man in Portugal" and the guarantor of social and
domestic peace in the country. He also referred to
last week's crackdown on the rightists, maintaining
that the unity of the people and the armed. farces had
prevented "reactionaries" from endangering the progress
made since the overthrow of prime minister Gaetano last
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 7, 1974
Italian President Leone today begins consultations
with political leaders prior to naming a candidate to
succeed Prime Minister Rumor. Rumor, the Christian
Demorratic leader who resigned last week, will remain
in office as a caretaker until a new cabinet is formed.
Party leaders have already begun to take stock. In
their initial public statements, all of the governing
parties. emphasized the gravity of th.e situation, but
they were careful not to foreclose the possibility of
forming a new center--left coalition.
There is little enthusiasm for holding a new parlia-
mentary election as proposed by Social Democratic leader
Tanassi in his anti--Socialist outburst last week that
triggered the government's collapse. The dominant Chris-
tian Democrats argue that an early election would not
help solve the country's economic problems. The Social-
ists agree, but they are sticking to their demands for
changes in tli.e economic stabilization program--particu-
larly the easing of credit to mi.nim.ize the increased un-
employment that will develop as th.e austerity measures
take hold.
A breach opened in the Social Democrats' ranks when
the party's elder statesman, Giuseppe Saragat, dissented
from Tanassi`s call for an election. Saragat character-
ized the center-left alignment as the "ideal barrier"
against the Communists.
The Communists, meanwhile, have rejected a new elec-
tion as a move that would paralyze the country. Predict-
ably, they have urged a "new departure" that would give
them more influence in the gaverning process.
The fall of the Rumor government has not yet had a
direct impact on efforts to deal with Italy?s mounting
economic problems, although it would appear to be only
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National Intelligence Bulletin
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a matter of time. Prior to Rumor's resignation, organ-
ized labor had requested a meeting with top government
and management officials to discuss union demands for
higher wages and benefits. Labor's patience will proba-
bly begin to wear thin if efforts to organize a new gov-
ernment are protracted--especially if unemployment be-
gins to rise sharply.
Prospects for labor peace were set back last Friday
when Fiat, Italy's largest private employer, reduced the
work week for one third of its employees from 40 to 24
hours. Fiat's move followed a breakdown i,n negotiations
with labor over the companv's desire to reduce production.
China: Premier Chou En-lai has returned to the hos-
pital he left on September 30 to host a National Day ban-
quet. Yesterday, he met with the visiting president of
Gabon in the hospital. The Premier reportedly is recu-
perating from an operation last month that may not have
been related to the heart problems which hospitalized
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