NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027300010016-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2006
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: December 27, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
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~r~tlOr'1+a~ ~11tE'S~IgG1"11C1~ B-l.,'f~~~lr"!
December 27, 1974
CONTENTS
EGYPT: Armed forces chief of staff named new war min-
.'ster. (Page 3)
ISRAEL: Prime Minister reaffirms Israel's refusal to
withdraw completely from Golan Heights. (Page 4}
FRANCE-IRAN: saris to support Iranian bid to EC.
image 5
FRANCE: Former foreign minister Jobert launches new
political movement. (Page 7)
LAOS: Disgruntled soldiers continue occupation of
border town. (Page 1:3}
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National lntelligen~ce Bulletin
December 27, 1974
Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Abd al-Ghani
Gamasy was appointed yesterday to succeed Egypt`s war
minister, Field Marshal Ahmad Ismail Ali. Ismail died
Wednesday in London, where he had been undergoing medi-
cal treatment.
Gamasy had been rumored as the likely successor
since it became known last summer that Ismail was suffer-
ing from cancer.
Maj. Gen. Muhammad Ali Fahmi, commander of Egypt's
air defense forces, has been prominently featured with
Ismail in the Caira press lately, and he could be Gamasy's
replacement as chief of staff.
Although Gamasy is somewhat more outspoken and in-
dependent than Ismail, his appointment is not likely to
bring a change in Egyptian military policy. That will.
continue to be the responsibi]_ity of President 5adat.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 27, 1974
Prime Minister Rabin has brought his public position
on peace closer to that of the. hard-line elements in his
party by reaffirming Israel's refusal to withdraw com-
pletely from the Golan Heights under any circumstances.
In a speech to a Labor Party meeting on December 25,
Rabin said that he would not seek peace at any price and
that he would not agree to withdrawal from the Golan,
even if it "is required to obtain postponement of war."
Rabin has studiously avoided commenting in recent months
on prospects for any further Israeli-Syrian disengage-
ment, although he has hinted abliquely in the past that
he would consider negotiating an interim agreement with
Syria.
Rabin apparently was goaded into his latest state-
ment by Moshe Dayan's barbed comment last week that "a
policy of avoiding war at all costs" would mean coming
down from the Golan Heights. The US embassy in Tel Aviv
comments that Robin`s compulsion to respond to Day an
attests to the constraining influence that Day an and
other members of the "old guard" still exercise on offi-
cial policy.
Even if Rabin intended his statement merely as a
domestic fence-mending gesture, it reinforces the im-
pression that at present Israel regards further military
disengagement with Egypt as the only avenue open in ad-
ditional step-by-step negotiations. The Syrians can be
expected to use the statement to press Egyptian Presi-
dent Sadat mare strongly not t,o proceed with unilateral
talks with Israel.
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Natir~nai Intelligences Bull+~tin
FRANCE-IRA.N
December 27, 1974
France has agreed to support Iran's bid for a pref-
erential trading arrangement with the EC; according to
the communique issued following French Prime Minister
Chirac's visit to Iran last weekend.
The decision marks a change in French policy and
could provide the impetus necessary to conclude an agree-
ment between-the EC and Iran next year. The decision
reportedly was made after "very difficult discussions,"
in which the Iranians exerted strong pressure. In the
communique following the recent visit of Italian Presi-
dent Leone to Iran, Italy also noted its support for a
new EC economic agreement with Iran, but the Italians
apparently resisted any public commitment to a prefer-
ential arrangement.
Denmark has been pressing hard among the Nine for
favorable~treatrnent for Iran, but so far it has met con-
siderable resistance. Several EC members have expressed
fear that Arab oil producers would resent any preferen-
tial agreement granted Iran and would seek agreements
on similar terms. The Danes hope that their efforts
in the EC on Iran's behalf will create an atmosphere
favorable to expanded bilateral relations.
EC members have also been aware of strong U5 oppo-
sition to a preferential agreement. The EC Commission
had in fact "pledged" that the community would not ex-
pand its Mediterranean preferential agreements to in-
clude peripheral countries such as Iran. The French,
defending their commitment to Iran, now imply that the
Commission had no authority to make such a pledge.
West Germany may support France if Bonn's specific
request for duty-free entry of refined Iranian petroleum
products into the EC is met. Iran has agreed to award
West Germany a contract to construct a large petroleum
refinery, contingent upon Sonn's efforts to secure con-
cessions on preferential treatment. West Germany has
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 27, 1974
been seeking this joint project as part of its drive
to develop secure and diversified sources of oil. The
Commission and most of Germany's partners have been op-
posing preferential treatment for Iranian oi:1 products,
in part be-cause of the difficulty in explaining such
treatment in GATT, but also because of an anticipated
excess in refinery capacity within the community by 1978.
Bilateral French negotiations with Iran parallel
high-powered approaches to Arab, countries over the past
few months as Paris strives to ensure a steady supply
of oil and to redress the substantial deficit in the
balance of trade with the oil-producing countries. Lat-
est press reports indicate that Chirac returned with
$7.7 billion in industrial orders--$4.4 billion more
than he had expected.
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Natianal Intelligence Bulletin December 27, 1974
F1~NCE
Former French foreign minister Michel Jobert an-
nounced on December 24 the official birth of his new
political movement--the Movement of Democrats.
The movement's structure and program will not be
formulated until early in the new year, but Jobert has
already declared that his group will not be tied down
by "doctrines or ideologies. The movement will adapt
to the political situation "as it develops."
Jobert's objective, according to Paris radio, is
the next legislative election, to be held sometime be-
fore the end of 1978. Even a splinter group winning no
more than 3 or 4 percent of the vote would give Jobert
a disproportionate influence in the delicate balance
that now exists in France between right and left.
Jobert is fishing in left-center waters with his
liberal criticism of domestic policies, but his strong-
est appeal has- been to Gaullist militants, who identify
with hi.s emphasis on French independence and dignity
and his sniping at President Giscard. The Young Gau,l-
lists--mavericks from the parent party--have already de-
clared their sympathy for Jobert, as have many left-
leaning Gaullist deputies and officials. Defeated Gaul-
list presidential candidate Jacques Chaban-Delmas re-
portedly is in contact with the farmer foreign minister
and has had kind words to say about him.
The recent takeover of the Gaullist party by Prime
Minister Chirac has added to strains within that party.
The party's national congress, scheduled for late Febru-
ary, may turn into a showdown between tame Gaullists
who support Giscard and disgruntled hard-.liners and mil-
itants. Jobert stands to benefit from any schism.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 27, 1974
assumed that he would form a party to give himself a
political base. Over the summer his criticism of Gis-
card's policies grew increasingly sharp and gradually
expanded from foreign policy to include economic issues.
Jobert also began a circuit-riding tour to address mid-
dle-class audiences. In the wake of these talks, local
businessmen and students have formed "committees of sup-
Ever since Jobert announced on June 11 his desire
to "loosen up French politic a]. life," it has been widely
port" for the former fareign minister.
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~Olati~na~l Intelligen~~ Btallt~tir~
December 27, 1974
Tropps from a former non-communist irregular battal-
ion are continuing to occupy the Mekong River border
town of Ban Houei Sai and several nearby villages in the
remote northwestern Lao province of Houa Khong. This is
the second time in less than three months that disgruntled
soldiers have fo2cibly occupied the province capital.
In addition to the economic grievances--salaries,
rice rations, and corrupt commanders--that prompted
their earlier seizure of Ban Houei Sai for three days in
early October, the irregulars this time a.re making polit-
ical demands that suggest Pathet Lao instigation and in-
volvement. The new demands include:
--government acceptance of Lao Communist leader
Souphanouvong's 18-point national political program;
--dissolution of the dormant, rightist-dominated
National Assembly (a move long sought by the Pathet
Lao) as well as repeal of all laws passed by the
assembly, including the ban on opium cultivation;
--"neutralization" o:E Ban Houei. Sai and the rest
of Houa Khong Province. This call probably en-
visages the kind of point Lao army - Pathet Lao
military presence that exists now in Vientiane and
Luang Prabang.
There are numerous reports that some Pathet Lao
troops, along with a group of radical student activists,
are helping the irregulars occupy Ban Houei Sai. These
reports are plausible, as forces of both sides in this
area belong to the same Lao Theung tribe and are sta-
tioned opposite one another at a cease-fire demarcation.
point close to Ban Houei Sai. The opposing forces co-
exist very compatibly, and the Pathet Lao lent moral
and propaganda support to the irregulars' prev~.ous move
against the town.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 27, 1974
In a meeting yesterday with US Ambassador Whitehouse,
Prime Minister Souvanna seemed well informed about the
situation at Ban Houei Sai. He placed much of the blame
for the current problem on non-communist Defense Minis-ter
Sisouk na Champassak for failing to redress the earlier
grievances of the irregulars--particularly their demand
that the notoriously corrupt and incompetent local Lao
army commander be removed.
The Prime Minister said he has ordered the command-
er's immediate cashiering, but it is unlikely that this
belated action will, by itself, ease the present diffi-
culties.
For the moment at least, Souvanna seems to favor
the negotiating tack, and his earlier orders to the
Royal Lao Army to reoccupy Ban Houei Sai have apparently
been put aside. The Prime Minister told Ambassador
Whitehouse that he planned to dispatch non-communist
Interior Minister Pheng Phongsavan to negotiate with
the Ban Houei Sai dissidents on his behalf.
There are reports, however, that the rebels-have
refused to meet with Pheng. Instead, they are said to
have agreed to meet with a joint delegation of commu-
nist and non-communist officials that is to arrive in
Ban Houei Sai today. The delegation includes represent-
atives of the Joint Central Commission--the coalition
goverrunent o~ana~zat3cr^-~'==~-cr=ihle- f.or maintzining
peace in the kingdom..
If the PathE:t L~~c WE:x E ~ r c E:E~d aCti.vely st i.rring up
the situation in Bari f c
.seem to be the fairl~~ r
grievances of thE: 1_oc;~ ~
uEi ~ ~ ~.hE;ir objecti~ E: Would
arx c ~ c r E: of_ exploitinc the
~ x c ~ F ~, ~irad embarrassi.r g tyre
Royal Lao Army, r-athex
tY ~.r : c x a.c:usly attE=mpti ng to
undermine the 19':'3 Lac
pe ~.c'r ~ c c;c:rds P
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