NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028900010024-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: May 14, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday May 14, 1976 CI-NIDC 76-114C
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
(Security Classification)
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Top Secret
'Aar Aff'Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff
CIA-RDP79T00975A02899PoV0bb r e t
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday May 14, 1976
he NID Cable is for the purpose
ot informing senior US officials.
I The refusal of Christian forces in central
Lebanon to accept a cease-fire may cause a complete collapse
of the truce in Beirut. Fighting in the capital has intensified
every day this week as leftist and Palestinian forces have
retaliated against a Christian drive on leftist-held territory
in the central mountains.
I Fighting in Tripoli between Syrian forces and
Iraqi-sponsored Lebanese and Palestinian units resumed
yesterday after a cease-fire arranged on Wednesday suddenly
collapsed. The Syrians, who now seem intent on eliminating
Iraqi agents and other local troublemakers, are pressing their
attack on a number of leftist strongholds in the area.
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The US embassy in Beirut speculates that the Syrian
campaign may be motivated in part by Syria's obligation to
Prime Minister Karami, who has lost much of his local power
base in Tripoli to several young, leftist leaders.
The embassy has learned that Syrian-controlled
forces are also moving against Iraqi-backed militiamen in Sidon
and Tyre. The trouble in these two southern cities has raised
some concern in Israel that renewed tensions could cause
incidents close to the Israeli border.
I I The deteriorating security situation has prompted
Sarkis to cut short the traditional round of congratulatory
visits and to concentrate instead on engineering a new truce.
His efforts to work out a reconciliation with leftist leader
Kamal Jumblatt apparently are making some headway.
Jumblatt issued another statement yesterday in which
he emphasized his admiration for Sarkis personally and
explained that he had not backed Sarkis in the presidential
campaign only because of Syria's endorsement of Sarkis' candi-
dacy.
We have no new information on Sarkis' contacts
with Christian leaders, who at this juncture hold the key to
salvaging a truce. A new round of rumors in Beirut that
President Franjiyah intends to delay his resignation suggests
that Sarkis may have a difficult time gaining concessions from
the Christian leaders on any new cease-fire pro osals.
I iSyrian President Asad and Jordanian King Husayn
ended their meeting in Damascus without announcing any new
moves toward political or military integration. Their
discussions seem to have served primarily to reinforce the
strong bond that has developed between the two men over the
past year.
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//This personal bond remains the most important fac-
i Itor in the seemingly anomalous alliance between Baathist Syria
and the conservative Hashemite monarchy. Most of the steps taken
thus far to promote cooperation have been more cosmetic than
real, with the exception of some military coordination.//
I ILebanon appears to have headed the list of topics taken
up by sad and Husayn. Husayn strongly supported Syrian mediation
efforts in the joint communique issued at the end of his visit.
row.
demons rations and terrorist incidents today and tomor
Israel's Rakah communist party plans demonstrations
in srae today in memory of Israeli Arabs killed March 30,
when security forces moved against demonstrators protesting
the government's expropriation of land in northern Israel.
The Israelis are bracing for another round of Arab
The Palestine Liberation organization reportedly has
called on the Arabs in the Israeli-occupied territories to
conduct a general strike and hold demonstrations tomorrow
to mark the anniversary of Israeli independence, which occurs
this week according to the Western calendar.
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Prime Minister Rabin's adviser for Arab affairs told US
embassy officers yesterday that Israeli security forces have
been placed on alert. He said they would not be posted in
Israeli Arab villages; the government wants to avoid a
repetition of the March 30 events, when the security forces
in the villages quickly became the targets of Arab violence.
The government has also intensified its effort to round
up suspected Arab terrorists. Terrorist incidents have
traditionally increased on the occasion of the mid-May
anniversary of Israel's independence.
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The South African government has proposed amendments
to the country's already stringent and sweeping security laws
that would significantly increase its executive powers and
further reduce access to the judicial system by individual
South Africans.
During a heated debate in parliament, spokesmen for
the ruling National Party have played upon public concern about
future developments in southern Africa to support the govern-
ment's case for by-passing the judicial process. The spokesmen
argue that broadening executive security powers will tighten
the loopholes exploited by a variety of "radical elements."
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In a private conversation with a US embassy officer,
one National Party deputy maintained that it is necessary to
legislate now what amounts to emergency powers in order to avoid
any delay in responding to security situations when parliament
is not in session.
I The deputy cited the prospect of "problems along the
Angola border," and insisted that authorities in Namibia needed
the new measures to deal with security threats from Namibian
guerrillas.
The Vorster government is likely to press for passage
ot its proposals despite the protests voiced by the two opposi-
tion parties, the English-language press, and some local bar
associations.
The government would have no trouble winning a vote,
since the National Party holds 122 of parliament's 169 seats.
There might also be defections from the opposition ranks, given
the sensitivity of some white South Africans to opposing their
government on national security matters.
I The current parliamentary session will continue for
some wee Ks and the debate is likely to be prolonged.'
The USSR and Israel are continuing their periodic
diplomatic contacts.
Last week,Israeli UN Ambassador Herzog met with Soviet
UN Ambassador Malik to explore Soviet views on a Middle East
settlement. The Israelis say they asked Malik'whether the
Arabs support Soviet principles for a settlement, including
respect for Israel's continued existence within its pre-1967
boundaries.
I The Israeli approach may have been a response to last
month's Soviet declaration on the Middle East and General
Secretary Brezhnev's earlier speech at the Soviet party con-
gress. Both sounded conciliatory notes toward Tel Aviv. The
Soviets, for example, reiterated their willingness to guarantee
Israel's security and said that they have "no prejudice"
against any Middle East state.
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A top Israeli foreign ministry official recently said
that these actions have triggered some speculation in Tel Aviv
about Soviet intentions. He said some Israelis see a change
in tone and content in the Soviet statements, although others
argue that past periods of Soviet moderation have been temporary.
The Israelis said they have not changed their position
that Moscow, having broken relations, should take the initiative
on restoring them.
I Moscow has recently made other small gestures toward
e Aviv. Soviet sports teams are now willing to play Israeli
athletic teams and a small Soviet friendship delegation is
currently visiting Israel. These Soviet actions appear largely
tactical, designed to suggest a degree of Soviet even-handedness
to the West and Israel and to ease the way for Tel Aviv's atten-
dance at a reconvened Geneva conference.
I The Soviets appear to be laying the groundwork both
at home and among the Arabs for eventual resumption of diplomatic
ties, but they continue to stress that movement toward a Middle
East peace settlement is a major prerequisite. Soviet officials
have also said that Israel must act to halt "anti-Soviet provoca-
tions" by Jewish groups, citing "Zionist harassment" of Soviet
diplomats in New York and the Israeli-suppor tt-_d con erence on
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//The Syrians appear to be signaling their intention
to approve another six-month extension of the mandate for the
UN observer force on the Golan Heights. The mandate expires
May 30 . //
the senior Syrian liaison officer to the UN force
has informally told the UN commander that Syria will renew
the mandate. The Asad government reportedly has also given
private assurances to Iran, which has a contingent in the
force, that Syria has decided to approve another extension.//
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between Syrian authorities and UN officials have remained DIA
close as the renewal date approaches. In the past, the Syrians
have tried to avoid contact with UN personnel at such times,
apparently to avoid being drawn out on Damascus' intentions.//
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//The EC foreign ministers are meeting informally
in Luxembourg today and tomorrow to discuss the problem of how
to apportion seats for direct elections to the European
Parliament. The relaxed atmosphere of meetings of this
kind--there are no aides and no agenda--has helped the ministers
to make progress on difficult problems in the past.//
//Despite high-level attention, including discussion
at last month's heads-of-government meeting, the Nine have been
unable to follow through on last December's summit decision to
hold direct elections in 1978.//
I//These pressures increase the likelihood that the
Luxembourg meeting will produce an acceptable compromise.
USSR/ECPC
The Yugoslav and Italian communist parties have ex-
pressed serious doubts that the long-delayed European communist
party conference can be held soon.
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Despite optimistic claims of progress from Moscow and
its loyal East European allies, the Yugoslavs and Italians
stated that last week's preparatory meeting in East Berlin
failed to resolve all inter-party differences.
Party secretary Aleksandr Grlickov, the chief Yugoslav
negotiator, told his party's executive committee in Belgrade on
Wednesday that questions of a "principled and essential" nature
remain to be settled. He said that it will take a major effort
to devise a conference document which all parties can accept
and that the Yugoslav party will not decide whether to attend
the conference until it has studied the document..Grlickov
added that the principle of consensus must not be violated.
I An Italian party leader, as quoted by a leading
Italian newspaper last Sunday, said that differences between
the independent-minded parties and the Moscow-oriented parties
are still so significant that it may be impossible to convene
the conference before September or October. The Italian party,
at a minimum, prefers to postpone a decision on convening the
conference until after the Italian parliamentary elections on
June 20.
Although the Yugoslav news agency released Grlickov's
comments, it cautioned recipients not to dwell on the differ-
ences he had cited, presumably to avoid further angering the
Soviets and their allies.
The East German party, which has borne the brunt of
the drafting responsibilities, has been quick to stress the
need for loyalty to Moscow. On May 6, the day the latest draft-
ing session ended, Premier and Politburo member Willi Stoph gave
a toughly worded speech that touted support for the Soviet party
as the "deciding criterion" of a communist party's revolutionary
credentials.
//An incident on Tuesday has heightened tension in
the lingering British-Icelandic fishing dispute and may
be raised at the NATO ministerial meeting next week.
Iceland will attend the meeting.//
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//An Icelandic patrol boat fired across the
bow of a British trawler attempting to escape. The trawler
was one of six British vessels that had been fishing
about 35 miles west of Iceland.//
//Icelandic patrol boats have fired on and some-
times hit British trawlers in past fishing disputes without
injuring anyone on board. The incident on Tuesday is the
first reported use of live ammunition in the current flareup
of the long-standing dispute.//
//In the past, the Icelandic patrol boats have
been guided by instructions from coast guard headquarters
in Reykjavik. Whether the Icelandic captain in the recent
incident acted independently or on orders is unknown.//
//The absence of a strict Icelandic military chain
o comman and the traditional self-reliance of the former
trawler captains who now command the patrol vessels suggest
that they exercise some independence in conducting their
patrols.//
//The Royal navy has been providing closer protection
to British trawlers since May 5, following threats by the
trawlers to leave Icelandic waters permanently unless London
authorized better naval protection.//
/The navy's more aggressive tactics, which led
almost imme lately to a flurry of incidents, are apparently a
result of a political decision taken last week at the highest
levels of the Callaghan government. Officials in the defense
ministry as well as naval officers have reportedly been reluctant
to participate in what they regard as essentially a political
conflict, but their arguments apparently have carried little
weight in cabinet discussions.//
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According to a recent scientific article, the
Soviets plan to orbit long-term manned observatories. These
complexes will be assembled in space from large individual
sections and serviced by transport ships. The Soviets may
intend to link one or more of their Salyut-class spacecraft
together to form an observatory.
Some of the concepts that would be involved have
already been tested. The recent three-month joint flight of
Soyuz 20 and Salyut 4 successfully demonstrated the USSR's
ability to carry out remote rendezvous and docking--a
technique for constructing and using large space stations.
The Soviets have also conducted two tests of a new
man-related spacecraft that may be a prototype of a ferry and
resupply vehicle. They will probably need a new larger
spacecraft because of the limited transport capability of
the Soyuz, their current vehicle.
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A 680-mile pipeline from the large Taching oil fields
in Manchuria to a nearly finished Chinese port just east of
Dairen is now in operation. The oil port--China's largest--will
be able to handle tankers up to 100,000-tons when finally
completed in July.
The pipeline will ease the burden on the over-worked
rail system and facilitate deliveries of petroleum to foreign
and domestic consumers. The new port was designed as the primary
facility for oil exports to Japan, China's major oil customer.
Both the port and the pipeline have been under construction
since mid-1974.
//Canada's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
jumped to 7.4 percent in April after holding steady at or below
7 percent for several months. The April figure is the highest
monthly rate since 1961 and is likely to revive criticism of
the Trudeau government's economic policies, which stress
curbing inflation. Ottawa has been banking that the impact of
the US economic recovery would spill over into Canada and
lower unemployment.//
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//The government must present its budget for fiscal
year 1976-7-7 to parliament in less than two weeks. Finance Min-
ister Macdonald fears that an expansionary budget, while reducing
unemployment, would lead to a new round of inflation. A more
restrictive budget, however, would increase the risk of
political fall-out from continuing high unemployment.//
//The chances are better than even that Ottawa will
decide on a neutral or slightly restrictive fiscal policy,
relying on current bullish forecasts that there will be satis-
factory economic growth even without government assistance.
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I iPortuguese Socialist leader Mario Soares told Ambas-
sador Carlucci that he had spurned recent offers from both the
Communists and Prime Minister Azevedo to support him in a bid
for the presidency in return for political concessions by the
Socialists.
Soares said he was approached last week by the number-
two man in the Communist Party, Octavio Pato, who offered Com-
munist support for a Soares candidacy in exchange for a Commun-
ist cabinet post following the presidential election on June 27.
Pato stressed that the Communists would accept even
a minor post, their aim being simply to maintain the party's
visibility.
Soares, who has announced plans to try to form a
minority Socialist government, said he flatly refused the
Communist request, indicating to Pato that he had no desire to
become "another Allende."
Since placing fourth in the legislative assembly
election on April 25, the Communists have stressed the need for
a Socialist-Communist coalition. Pato's plea shows how far the
party's fortunes have fallen in the past year. It illustrates
the importance the Communists apparently attach to retaining
a role, no matter how insignificant, in the Portuguese
government.
Another supplicant Soares received this week was
Prime Minister Azevedo, who believes he is being outmaneuvered
in his own bid for the presidency by army chief of staff Eanes.
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On the eve of Soares' announcement of support for
Eanes' candidacy, Azevedo pleaded with him to withhold his
endorsement in hopes of forcing a second-ballot runoff between
himself and Eanes. Snares claims that when he rejected this
request, Azevedo offered to support him for president in an
effort to block the Socialist endorsement of Eanes.
Azevedo's apparent willingness to give up his own
presidential aspirations to support Soares suggests that he
may be part of a "stop-Eanes movement."
I There have been indications that leftist military
o icers, and probably the Communists as well, oppose Eanes'
candidacy. If they are determined to stop him, it could portend
serious trouble during the campaign.
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