NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010004-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: September 2, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Thursd September 2,-1976 .T NTDC 76-20ZD
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National Intelli-enno Daily Cable for Thursday September 2, 1976.
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The NID Cable is for the purpose o in
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situatio
n
Report
Page 1
TURKEY: Sismik i
R
enews Operations
Page 2
Page 3
LIBYA: Qadhafi's
S
peech
NAMIBIA: Independ
e
nce Date Set
Page 5
USSR: Views on Southern Africa
Page 6
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ARGENTINA: Rightist Abuses
MEXICO: Echeverria Outlines Float Policy
Page 7
Page 8
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Lebanese president-elect Sarkis met with Syrian Pres-
ident Asad for five hours during his one-day visit to Damascus
on Tuesday. Neither side has issued a statement on the sub-
stance of their talks, although Sarkis has been quoted as call-
ing Syria's role in Lebanon "positive."
I Damascus radio emphasized that the two leaders
stress e he need to continue Syria's "effort to establish
peace" in Lebanon until the conflict is ended. Damascus radio
also talked about the need to preserve Lebanon's independence
and unity, but this probably is not sufficiently unambiguous
to mollify those Lebanese on both sides who suspect Syria of
planning to annex portions of their country.
I Beirut's leftist radio said Sarkis asked the Syrians
for a p e ge to withdraw their forces so he can begin working
on a solution. It is likely that Sarkis has told Asad that such
a pledge is necessary if he is to have any chance of governing
Lebanon.
The leftist version of the meeting also said that
arcis presented Asad with his own solution to the Lebanese
conflict. Sarkis supposedly advocated reconciliation among all
of the key participants in the Lebanese conflict, but we have
no information about any concrete proposals he may have made.
I he leftists' account suggests that Sarkis may be
pus ing a step-by-step approach to reconciliation that would
concentrate on the more moderate parties on both sides first,
and only at the end bring in the extremists.
It also suggests that Sarkis may be trying to sepa-
rate the Syrian-Palestinian problem from the Lebanese conflict
itself. He is known to believe that the Lebanese cannot begin
to resolve their own difficulties until the Syrians and the
Palestinians have worked out some kind of accommodation.
wlij- ace place soon, although no date has been set.
second meeting between Asad and Sarkis apparently
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The leftist "central political council"--a loose left-
wing coalition headed by Kamal Jumblatt--announced on Tuesday
plans to establish its own "foreign office" with branches in
France, Bulgaria, Libya, Egypt, and Cyprus to deal with infor-
mation, economic, and political affairs. The council also an-
nounced the formation of a bureau of finance and a new 2,000-
man security force.
The military situation has been relatively calm. The
Christians say that they have advanced near Majdalaya in the
north. The Syrians are continuing to consolidate their forces
around Uyun al-Siman in the mountains east of Beirut and near
Jazzin in the south. We are still unable to confirm leftist
charges that the Syrians have sent additional troops into these
areas.
I There were clashes in the commercial district of Bei-
rut again yesterday, and the leftists are saying that they have
made a successful foray into Ayn Rummanah.
TURKEY: Sismik I Renews Operations
Turkey announced yesterday the fourth area of opera-
tion for its research ship the Sismik I. The latest mission,
which began yesterday and is to continue through September 25,
is likely to heighten Greek-Turkish tensions again.
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According to a Turkish navy announcement, the Sismik
I will avoid Greek territorial waters during this mission. The
area of operation delineated in the announcement, however, en-
compasses substantial portions of the Greek-claimed continental
shelf--some of it west of Greek islands along the Turkish coast.
The area comes close at one point to the Greek mainland and
includes zones where Greece and Turkey have granted overlapping
oil concessions.
//The new Turkish move seems certain to delay
e Bilateral negotiations tentatively set for mid-September
by the Greek and Turkish foreign ministers following last week'
UN resolution on the Aegean.
//Greece also is unlikely now to look with
favor on the Turkish demand that the Greeks withdraw their
application to the International Court of Justice for adjudi-
cation of Aegean seabed problems before negotiations begin.
The Greeks had informed the Turks earlier this week they would
be willing to ask the Court to set the matter aside pending
bilateral talks. Athens completed its presentation to the Court
last Saturday.//
//Both sides will be alert to the possibility of
incidents arising from the activities of the Sismik I and a
Greek naval exercise in the northern Aegean, which is scheduled
to continue through September 12.//
Most Greek and Turkish military forces are believed
to be at about normal levels of readiness. In the wake of
yesterday's announcement, Greece and Turkey probably will in-
crease the alert status of some military units.
LIBYA: Qadhafi's Speech
Libyan President Qadhafi, in a speech on the seventh
anniversary of his coup, announced last night that he would
not break diplomatic relations with Egypt.
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Despite his threat a month ago to break relations if
Egypt did not cease its military build-up on the border, Qa-
dhafi asserted that the Libyan people had urged him not to do
so. He would not have hesitated to make the break had the deci-
sion been his, he said, but Libya's "democratic system" took
the decision out of his hands.
Qadhafi made his remarks about Egypt in the course
OT a ong, self-congratulatory exposition on the popularity of
his revolution. The speech seeme(f designed to convince Egypt
and any possible Egyptian-backed coup plotters that his regime
is too soundly based to be toppled.
Qadhafi reserved some harsh comments for Egyptian
President Sadat, noting that Sadat had "stooped to a point that
I would be ashamed to describe jr Arabic," but the speech other-
wise was generally conciliatory. He said he bears Sadat no per-
sonal grudge and, referring directly to Egypt's military
threats, said that Libya would never use its military strength
against Egypt, although it is capable of doing so.
I He announced the release of three Egyptians recently
in Libya on charges of spying for Egypt, and he did
not expel or otherwise threaten Egyptian workers in Libya, as
he had reportedly been planning to do.
Qadhafi was clearly trying to avoid provoking
I gyp into taking either military or political action against
him. The Libyans are in fact more concerned about the possi-
bility of Egyptian action than Qadhafi's breezy dismissal of
the danger would indicate
Qadhafi may not believe that his passive approach
will necessarily deter the Egyptians, but by adopting this
approach he portrays himself to the Libyan people and the other
Arab states as the reasonable party to the dispute and Sadat
as the unprovoked aggressor.
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NAMIBIA: Independence Date Set
The leading white politicians in Namibia have accepted
December 31, 1978, as a target date for the territory to be
fully independent from South Africa, but they still appear to
oppose the UN demand for a popular election before independence.
The annual congress of the Namibian branch of the rul-
ing National Party last week approved the steps toward indepen-
dence proposed in the multiracial constitutional conference that
the South Africans convened last September in Windhoek, the ter-
ritorial capital. On August 18 a committee of the conference set
the date for independence and also called for an interim gov-
ernment to be established after the basic framework for a con-
stitution has been agreed upon.
I I The party congress showed disapproval of proposals de-
signe to meet the criteria for Namibian independence set forth
by the UN Security Council. The primary UN criterion is that the
present constitutional conference, composed of unelected delega-
tions from the territory's tribal and other ethnic groups, be
replaced by a constituent assembly elected under UN supervision.
On Tuesday, according to press reports, a committee
of the constitutional conference agreed in principle to a pro-
posal made by non-white delegates calling for an election before
December 31, 1978, in the presence of UN observers--but not
under their supervision. This attempted compromise apparently
was shelved after the conservative chairman of the Namibian
branch of the National Party expressed reservations.
South African Prime Minister Vorster has not taken a
,
public stand on any of the proposed steps toward independence,
although he has stated that he will not block any measure that
is approved by the whole conference.
The US embassy in Pretoria believes Vorster may take
I
no action until after his meeting with Secretary Kissinger this
weekend and after consultations with the party leadership that
are scheduled for September 10.
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There has been speculation in the South African press
t hat Vorster will urge the white settlers in Namibia to accept
at least some proposals from the non-whites before the UN Secu-
rity Council resumes consideration of Namibia on September 22.
I ISoviet media awe stressing developments in southern
rica, particularly in Namibia. The passing of the August 31
deadline set by the UN Security Council for concrete steps to-
ward Namibian independence prompted increased criticism of South
Africa and its "imperialist" supporters.
I The Soviets have replayed South-West African People's
aniza on and Western criticism of South Africa's plan for
eventual Namibian independence, which the Soviets say is "un-
acceptable" and designed to "perpetuate the occupation of
Namibia." The Soviets warned that the struggle for genuine in-
dependence has entered the decisive stage and that the armed
struggle will intensify under the guidance of SWAPO.
Sam Nujoma, president of SWAPO, said in a press inter-
view t at he needs arms and ammunition to carry on the fight,
but that he was satisfied with his recent visit to Moscow.
According to diplomatic sources in Moscow, Nujoma requested and
was granted additional military aid. Regarding Cuban assistance,
Nujoma said that SWAPO is not planning to follow Angola's example
in using forces from outside the country but added that "the
Cubans are our friends and we expect them to give assistance."
While playing up the militant line., the Soviets have
repeated Vujoma's assertion that he is willing to negotiate
directly with South Africa. In contrast, the Soviets have
attacked recent US and Western efforts to encourage negotiated
settlements of southern African conflicts. Soviet attacks on
these efforts, which it characterizes as a ploy to preserve
traditional imperialist control of the rich natural resources
of the region, seem to indicate Soviet concern that such initia-
tives may be successful.
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ARGENTINA: Rightist Abuses
Leading Argentines are becoming increasingly outspoken
in condemning right-wing abuses of the government's anti-terror-
ist campaign.
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The US embassy reports that it is hearin c it
r
'
i
cism
trom. a wide range of g
political figures churchmen
and even civil servants. Many were content to see,theumilitary,
come to power in March but are now distressed at right-wing vio-
lence. They are alarmed that the government still has not ac-
counted for a large number of prisoners, and the recent upsurge
in indiscriminate killings has convinced many that they have
more to fear from the right than from leftist guerrillas.
Despite expressions o= concern in many circles, there
no organized campaign being mounted against the government,
and expressions of criticism have been cautious.
The leader of the country's second largest
oliti
l
p
ca
party recently signed a declaration that condemned the disap-
pearance of two leading members of the party but only indirectly
indicated the party's belief that the security forces were re-
sponsible.
I Both have since been released, according to a communi-
que. The church is said to be convinced that security officials
were responsible for the recent deaths of five priests alleged to
be leftists and is less inclined to be conciliatory toward the
junta than before the papal nuncio strongly protested the kill-
ings.
President Videla may be trying to curtail abuses. Ru-
ore military reassignments, for example, would shift two so-
called "hard-liners" out of their troop command positions. More-
over, a presidential spokesman last week assured the US embassy
that the perpetrators of the murder of 30 1 leftists the
weekend before would be punished.
MEXICO: Echeverria Outlines Float Policy
Mexican President Echeverria yesterday outlined new
government policies to back up Tuesday's decision to float the
peso.
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He proposed strict government fiscal responsibility
to eliminate excess spending and cut the budget deficit without
reducing needed investment in public facilities, industry, and
social services. To protect consumer purchasing power, Echever-
ria called for price controls on essential goods, export and
excess profits taxes, reduction of tariffs on raw materials
and some other items, and special tax breaks for those who will
suffer most from the effects of the depreciation.
I ITo protect the value of the peso from excessive ero-
:3j-011' T-1 bank will intervene where necessary, relying
on foreign exchange reserves of $1.4 billion and drawing rights
totaling another $1 billion with the International Monetary
Fund and other international financial sources.
The Mexicans hope these measures will hold the line
on import prices, domestic inflation, and severe capital flight
while bolstering export receipts, especially tourist earnings.
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