NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029400010048-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2005
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: October 30, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:.
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
25X1
1
1
1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Saturday October 30, 1976 CI NIDC 76-254C
1
1
1
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
25X1
1
(Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010 48-3
AW AW AW A"r AW AIJ
F
IA-RDP79T00975A0294*0V(8etret 233
(Security Classification)
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
 Approved For Re
25X1
25X1
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday October 30, 1976.
e NID Cable is tor the purpose o into ming
senior US o icials.
CONTENTS
EAST GERMANY: Leadership Changes
Page 1
25X1
LEBANON: Situation Report
SOUTH AFRICA: New Strike Call
JAPAN: Pre-election Unity
BRAZIL: Investment Cuts
NATO: Prepares for CSCE
Page 4
Page 5
Page 6
Page 9
Page 11
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AQ29400010048-3
 Approved ForiRelease 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T0097PA029400010048-3
EAST GERMANY: Leadership Changes
In a surprise shake-up of his regime on Friday, East
German party chief Erich Honecker had himself named head of
state. He also fired Prime Minister Horst Sindermann, replacing
him with Willi Stoph, who had been chairman of the Council of
State--head of state--since 1.973. Sindermann was given the
largely ceremonial post of president of the parliament.
I I These moves, announced by the parliament, were evi-
en y arranged at Thursday's meeting of the party Central Com-
mittee. Honecker now has both of the positions held by his
predecessor, the late Walter Ulbricht. In proposing Honecker's
election as chairman of the Council of State, Stoph said the
move was made because the party general secretary acts for the
nation in decision-making and in representing the state.
In the East European Warsaw Pact countries, all party
chiefs are now heads of state except for Hungary's Kadar and
Poland's Gierek.
Stoph is no newcomer to the premiership. As prime
minister from 1964 to 1973, he was generally regarded as durable
and hard-working but not particularly imaginative. He has had
some serious health problems, and may therefore be only an in-
terim appointee.
I I Sindermann's sudden fall from grace may be partly the
result of East Germany's growing economic problems. At Thurs-
day's Central Committee plenum, Honecker called for meticulous
administration and criticized the state organs for neglecting
the concerns of citizens. The balance of payments may be another
key problem, following record trade deficits with developing
Western countries of $900 million and $1.1 billion in 1974 and
1975, and disappointing results from an "export offensive" in
the West this year.
East Germany has also been hard hit by reduced outputs
of grain, forage, and fodder crops resulting from severe drought.
Much of the imported grain is coming from the West, using up an
unplanned amount of scarce hard currency needed for other eco-
nomic purposes. The poor harvest and continuing short supplies
of fodder have led to shortages of meat and other foodstuffs
and some consumer grumbling.
Approved Fc
 Approved For Rele
25X1 Stoph announced that he will present his new cabinet
and program on Monday. Some ministers whose duties involve the
consumer sector and trade with the West may be replaced.
25X1
25X1
25X1
6xl
25X1
25X1
Approved For Rele4se 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29K00010048-3 25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
 Approved For Relea 00010048-3 25X1
LEBANON: Situation Report
I The Syrians, by allowing the movement of some Pales-
tinian guerrillas south into the Arqub, appear to be trying to
ensure Palestinian cooperation and to rein in their troublesome
Christian allies.
I I Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam met separately with
Lebanese Christian and Palestinian leaders on Thursday in Da-
mascus to encourage both sides to stop fighting in southern
Lebanon. Khaddam reportedly also tried to ease Christian appre-
hensions that Syria has shifted its support to the Palestinians
and again advised the Christians to limit their dealings with
the Israelis.
Syria evidently wants to create a
balance of forces between the Palestinians and Christians in
southern Lebanon in order to gain greater control over both
25X1
25X1
5X1
25X1
Approved For Rel4ase 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0291400010048-3
 Approved For R$
25X1
25X1
Militant black students in Soweto township outside
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, have called for a
five-day strike next week by the area's black industrial
workers. The leaflets calling for the work stoppage carry the
name of the Soweto Students Representative Council, which ap-
parently has played a leading role in student agitation since
the first major riot in Soweto last June.
The most recent stoppage occurred in mid-September.
It lasted for three days and kept three fourths of the black
industrial workers in the metropolitan area away from their
jobs. The high rate of absenteeism apparently was achieved
through advance notices that appealed for black solidarity
against the apartheid system and also warned that the homes
of blacks who went to work would be burned.
I I During two work stoppages in August, violent clashes
occurre etween police and students who were harassing com-
muters. In addition, extensive random fighting flared among
Soweto residents belonging to different tribes after police
encouraged blacks who opposed the strike to attack students.
The latest strike notices reportedly urge blacks to
avoid confrontations with police next week. Even if the strike
leaders intend to repeat tactics that avoided serious blood-
shed last month, another extensive work stoppage, if it mate-
rializes, will involve a high risk of major violence. I
25X1
25X1
25X1 Approved For ~elease 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975
 Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A029#00010048-3 25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
JAPAN: Pre-election Unity
I With Lower House elections only about five weeks
away, e ruling Liberal Democrats have decided to forego a
divisive leadership struggle in favor of pre-election unity.
Opponents of Prime Minister Miki--nearly two thirds
o the party--publicly called last week for Deputy Prime Minis-
ter Fukuda to replace Miki as party president and prime minis-
ter at a special convention that had been scheduled for to-
morrow. Miki's opponents agreed yesterday to postpone the con-
vention until after the election, at least partly because of
sentiment in the party that the leadership issue be resolved
after, rather than before, the election. Miki thus will almost
certainly remain in charge through the election.
onstrates that the balance of power in the party still favors
the Deputy Prime Minister. A serious effort to replace Miki
will probably be made shortly after the election, when by law
the entire cabinet must resign and a new prime minister must
be elected by the Diet.
The endorsement of Fukuda's candidacy, however, dem-
25X1 The Diet has already passed the vital fiscal legis-
a ion on its agenda and will probably be dissolved early next
month. The election is likely to be held on December 5.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0 9400010048-3 25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
 25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved Fo
Brazil is planning to cut public investment next year
in a major effort to curb inflation. Price increases are likely
to exceed 50 percent this year, compared with 30 percent in
1975. Prices have risen despite a tight money policy, soaring
interest rates, and a ceiling on wage increases.
I I Although details still are being worked out, the in-
vestment cuts apparently will affect key areas in which the
public sector is deeply involved--energy, iron and steel,
chemicals, and mining industries, as well as transportation
and other services.
vestors have been selectively reduced since last year. The
state-owned National Economic Development Bank has cut back
loan disbursements to private development projects, originally
slated to reach nearly $4 billion this year.
The private sector, which accounts for more than 80
percent of total fixed investment, has been bearing the brunt
of austerity measures. Tax and credit incentives to private in-
These measures are beginning to reduce excess demand,
but stiff import controls that limit the supply of goods and
sharply increase the cost of imports continue to fuel inflation.
Raw material shortages are becoming severe and black markets
are appearing in some industrial raw materials.
I IBrazil, nevertheless, intends to maintain import con-
trols for at least another year, and may even tighten them
further in an attempt to reduce the current-account deficit. The
deficit is now expected to exceed $6 billion this year, down
only moderately from $6.8 billion in 1975.
that are to produce import substitutes, the cuts could help pro-
long Brazil's dependence on imported goods.
The proposed investment cuts, along with the previous
controls, probably will hold real economic growth to less than
5 percent in 1977. Moreover, by delaying the completion of plants
25X1
Approved Fir Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975
 Approved For Releo
9400010048-3 25X1
I I The government's critical review of public investment
programs has already heightened tensions within the cabinet and
probably is largely responsible for a recent spate of rumors of 25X1
an impending shake-up. Ministers responsible for running state
enterprises will continue lobbying behind closed doors to fore-
stall budget cuts until final decisions are made.
25X1
Approved For R+lease 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO294
25X1
 25X1
Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02V
25X1
25X1
25X1
NATO: Prepares for CSCE
//NATO representatives met in Brussels last week to
try to reach agreement on how to approach the conference in
Belgrade next year that will review implementation of the Hel-
sinki agreement on security and cooperation in Europe. The al-
lies agreed on the need to press for a "full and candid" assess-
ment of the East's record of compliance, but the Europeans
made clear their belief that the US posture on the East's per-
formance is too rigid.//
//The overall Western approach to the review con-
ference reflects an awareness that the meeting can have an im-
portant impact on the future evolution of East-West relations.
Western governments view recent public dissatisfaction with
detente in the West, coupled with the East's marginal record
of compliance, as requiring a candid review of implementation
of the Helsinki agreement.//
25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T0097~
 Approved For ReI4
//The allies expect the East to try to downplay
the con erence and to make countercharges of its own. Accord-
ingly, the West will be seeking to focus the conference on ef-
forts to ensure that the East lives up to its commitments, with
enough new proposals presented to enable the West to retain the
initiative.
//The West's proposals will include some that are
i
intended to gain support for its approach from neutral and non-
aligned countries among the 35 signatories that will attend the
review conference.//
//The NATO meeting in Brussels was preceded by
consultations among the EC Nine so that the eight who are NATO
members came to last week's meeting with an agreed position.
This procedure restored the system of prior EC consultation
employed during the Helsinki conference itself. This does not
signify major differences between the Nine and the other NATO
allies; the EC's paper on the Belgrade conference, for example,
has been accepted as the basis for NATO deliberations.//
//At least since last spring, however, the Euro-
peans have een trying to separate themselves from what they
see as Washington's "all or nothing" approach to Eastern com-
pliance with the Helsinki agreements.//
//The Europeans believe that no action should be
taken that alters the Helsinki agreement, but they insist that
Eastern initiatives not be rejected out of hand. This position
reflects Europe's geographical proximity to the USSR, the desire
of the allies to maintain their independence despite cooling
relations between the superpowers, and a determination to make
the most of Soviet interest in expanding the dialogue with the
West.//
//A report on allied preparations for the Belgrade
ence will be presented to the NATO foreign ministers in
f
er
con
December. Detailed preparations for the conference will continue
through next spring.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Relea4e 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02940b010048-3 25X1
 A roved For Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
0 Top Secret
(Security Classification)
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
Top Secret
(Securit IeI -sal' atF&M Release 2005/01/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29400010048-3
J