NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030200010113-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2006
• Sequence Number: 113
• Publication Date: August 9, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesday August 9, 1977
CG NIDC 77-184C
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0 NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed dommon
0 DIA review(s) completed. Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for
ITne NID cable is for the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
SOUTH AFRICA: Anti-Americanism
WEST GERMANY: Lackluster Economics
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Page 3
USSR - NORTH KOREA: Defense Zone
ETHIOPIA-DJIBOUTI: Troubled Relations
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Page 8
SPAIN: Moderate Party Announced
Page 12
OAU-Ethiopia-Somalia
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South African Prime Minister Vorster's highly criti-
cal speech on Saturday marked a peak in anti-US sentiment, which
has been growing in South Africa since Vorster returned from a
meeting in May with US Vice President MondaZe.
On the day before Vorster's speech, Minister of De-
fense P. W. Botha lectured the US defense attache in Pretoria
on the dire consequences of US policy toward South Africa.
Botha obviously wanted his views transmitted to Washington.
The defense minister said:
--South Africa now distrusts the Western world, particu-
larly the intentions of the US and the UK.
--The US is South Africa's enemy as much as the Russians.
--South Africa will go to war to save itself, (although he
said he meant it as no threat).
--If it comes to armed conflict, South Africa will change
the face of southern Africa.
I Botha described US policy as totally negative. The US,
he said, was demanding black majority rule in South Africa and
"we will never, never agree to that."
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I Vorster's speech and Botha's private remarks are prob-
ably timed to set the tone for a meeting in London late this
week between Secretary Vance, the British foreign secretary, and
the South African foreign minister to discuss a peace plan for
Rhodesia which depends heavily on South African willingness to
apply economic and political pressure on the Rhodesian govern-
ment. Both talks, even so, represent a progressive hardening of
South African attitudes toward the US and its demands for maj-
ority rule, which all sections of white South Africa see as
suicidal for their present society.
Since the Vorster-Mondale meeting, resistance has grown
to de ands for change, abetted by critical comments by South
African officials. There is also a clear strategy to appeal over
the, heads of US government officials to American business lead-
ers, members of Congress, and sympathetic US organizations and
citizens to stop pressing South Africa. The Foreign Minister
visited the US in June with that objective in mind.
I At least one South African newspaper has been running
a ong series of articles on how the US has been trying to
undermine South Africa, and in June, the first anti-American
signs a peared outside Johannesburg.
I
//West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt will meet
ea ing ministers in Hamburg today to discuss the budget and
other economic matters. Bonn has come under increasing pressure
from business and labor to boost the flagging economy in the
wake of the latest disappointing statistics.//
//According to figures released by the Economics
Ministry and the Federal Labor Office, June industrial orders
declined 1.5 percent from May, thus undermining hopes for
strong demand during the second half of the year. Foreign or-
ders, the lifeblood of West German industry, declined most
sharply--6 percent. Coming before the recent sharp rise in the
Deutschemark, the fall-off in foreign orders is particularly
worrisome.//
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WEST GERMANY: Lackluster Economics
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West German industrial production in the first half
of the year was up less than 2 percent over the preceding six-
month period on a seasonally adjusted basis. This suggests that
real overall economic growth this year may not reach 4 percent.
July's unemployment, which totaled 973,000, exceeds
last year's by more than 20,000 and accounts for about 4.3 per-
cent of all wage and salary earners. Unemployment usually rises
during the July vacation period, this year's increase was the
largest since 1974, just prior to the 1974-1975 recession.
//With both coalition parties badly split inter-
nally, agreement on new stimulative measures would be difficult.
Following the recent increase in the turnover tax combined with
some reductions in business taxes, left-wing members of the
ruling Social Democratic and Free Democratic parties, strongly
supported by the unions, sharply oppose further investment in-
centives as advocated by Economics Minister Friderichs. Instead,
they propose more government investment in public works proj-
ects and, if necessary, government action to limit overtime to
spread available employment.//
//If the economic statistics in the fall fail to
show significant improvement, as now seems likely, political
pressures will force Schmidt to take action to retain the sup-
port of his own party. Next year's state elections in Lower
Saxony and Hesse, where unemployment will be an important is-
sue, could ultimately cost him his job. The need to compromise
opposing views within and between the coalition parties would
probably leave Bonn with additional manpower programs as the
least contoversial of possible measures.//
I Schmidt could invoke the Stability and Growth Law
by attributing West German economic troubles to the worldwide
economic malaise. The law permits the government, without par-
liamentary approval, temporarily to lower or raise income taxes
up to 10 percent to restore economic equilibrium.
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I The USSR has indicated concern over last week's an-
nouncemen by North Korea of an offshore defense zone.
Last Wednesday a Soviet embassy official in Washing-
ton asked about the US reaction to the North Korean announce-
ment. He noted that the US and USSR had many common interests
in matters concerning law of the sea, especially regarding the
right of free navigation in international waters. He also ex-
pressed an interest in exchanging information on the North Ko-
rean situation.
Moscow also publicly registered discontent over North
Korea's actions. On Thursday Izvestia carried without comment
a Japanese news agency report quoting the Japanese chief cabi-
net secretary's strong statement opposing the defense zone as
contrary to international law. Krasnaya Zvezda repeated this
coverage the following day. The Soviets traditionally run West-
ern news stories without comment to register their own reaction
while maintaining the appearance of neutrality.
I Moscow's reaction is another example of the Soviets'
continuing problems with North Korea and their difficulty in
reconciling Moscow's stated support for third world positions
with its own interests in law of the sea matters.
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robZems involving the Republic of Djibouti may be-
come another source of friction between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Djibouti's domestic ethnic rivalries have weakened the govern-
ment's authority, and its relations with Ethiopia are worsen-
ing. Ethiopia may try to recoup its influence by subverting the
government, a move certain to provoke a response from Somalia.
Djibouti has not accepted the credentials of the
Ethiopian ambassador-designate, Fitigu Tadesse, who was nomi-
nated soon after Djibouti became independent in June.
I IAn incursion by Ethiopian troops to steal livestock
in a e my led Djibouti President Gouled to cancel the cere-
monies at which he was to receive Fitigu's credentials. Gouled
sent a strong protest to Ethiopian Chairman Mengistu and has
refused to accept Ethiopia's offer to pay compensation.
Gouled also is angry over Fitigu's alleged activities
supporting pro-Ethiopian political groups who are his main ri-
vals. Fitigu was recalled to Addis Ababa on Wednesday for con-
sultations on why relations are strained.
I The tensions caused by the Ethiopian-Somali conflict
have increased ethnic animosities in Djibouti. The Issas, the
main ethnic Somali group in Djibouti, are upset over the plight
of their kinsmen in the Ogaden, and large numbers of Issas from
northeastern Ethiopia have taken refuge in Djibouti. The Issas
believe Ethiopian troops have attacked civilians in retaliation
for guerrilla raids on Ethiopian garrisons, and last month eth-
nic Somalis in Djibouti demonstrated against Ethiopian citizens
in Djibouti.
he ethnic Somalis and the Afars, an ethnic group
with ties to Ethiopia, are feuding over the composition of the
new Djiboutian army. The core of the army consists of Djiboutians
who served with French forces stationed in the territory.
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I IGouled agreed to integrate 300 members of the Front
for the Liberation of the Somali Coast into the army to placate
Front militants and Somalia. The Front was organized and trained
by Somalia, but it now has legal status in Djibouti. Some of
its leaders are members of the legislative assembly and the
cabinet.
I uIn response, militant Afar members of the Djibouti
a era i.on Movement, an Ethiopian puppet organization, are de-
manding to be integrated into the Djibouti army also. Their de-
mand is apparently supported by pro-Ethiopian Afar politicians
whose positions have declined relative to Gouled and other po-
litical leaders supported by Somalia.
Nor are all Front members satisfied with the present
arrangement. A large number of Front militants who have been
denied entry into Djibouti recently gathered in Somalia and
threatened to cross into Djibouti. A committee of Djiboutian
and Somali government officials has so far managed to prevent
the march.
I lAccording to the French ambassador, 75 Front members
:rom Ii outi crossed into Ethiopia in early July and occupied
an abandoned police post on the railroad connecting Djibouti
and Addis Ababa. They were joined by 200 of their comrades.
Pay grievances in the Djibouti army have added to the
government's problems. Djiboutians who served in the French
army are angry over taking substantial pay cuts in the new
Djibouti force. Gouled. late last month announced severe sanc-
tions would be imposed. against troops who threatened not to
perform their duties.
Ethiopia is inclined to interpret Djibouti's diplo-
matic coolness, and its apparent toleration of Somali Libera-
tion Front activities, as evidence that Djibouti is increasingly
coming under Somalia's domination. The Ethiopians may react by
using their assets in Djibouti against Gouled's government.
Ambassador-designate Fitigu has acknowledged to the
US charge on several occasions that Ethiopia. possesses consid-
erable ability to "destablize" Djibouti. Somalia probably has
superior subversive capabilities, however, and would use them
to block Ethiopia's efforts. A direct attack by either is un-
likely while France maintains 4,000 troops in, the territory.
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SPAIN: Moderate Party Announced
I I The governing political alliance of Spanish Prime
Minister Suarez signaled its determination to campaign force-
fuZZy for the municipal elections later this year by forming a
single party.
I I The dozen-odd factions that make up the Union of the
emocra is Center announced the formation last Thursday follow-
ing a meeting of their leaders. Details of the new organization
will be worked out at a party congress sometime this fall.
I I Suarez can now say that he heads the largest party in
Spain, a claim the opposition socialists have used advantageously
since the parliamentary election on June 15.
I No date has been set for the municipal elections, but
a high government official told the US embassy last month that
they would be held before the end of the year. Leftist parties,
in particular the Socialists, are confident that they will better
their performance in the parliamentary election in which they
almost upset the Suarez alliance. The Democratic Center, which
hardly bothered to campaign for the parliamentary election, has
now served notice that it will not be taken by surprise again
and reportedly will press ahead with preparations for the elec-
tion campaign.
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OAU-Ethiopia-Somalia:
The Somali delegation walked out of the Saturday
1
meeting of the Organization of African Unity mediation commit-
tee and refused to return despite pleas from top OAU officials.
The Somali and Ethiopian foreign ministers presented
,
their cases on Saturday. The Ethiopian called for OAU assis-
tance to stop Somali aggression and for the immediate recall
of Somali troops from Ethiopian territory. The Somali claimed
t his country was not a party to the dispute and that the
h
a
t
Western Somali Liberation Front should be represented at the
talks. In addition, he called for an end to Ethiopian colonial-
ism and self-determination in the Ogaden.
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