NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010156-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 156
• Publication Date: January 5, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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en ral
Intelligence 71 1
5 January 1979
State Dept. review completed Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily (Cable)
CONTENTS
RHODESIA: Pressure on Mozambique . . . . . . . . . 1
SPAIN: Reaction to Assassinations . . . . . . . . 2
TURKEY: Government Survives Vote . . . . . . . . . 3
BRIEFS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
USSR
Argentina-Chile
On 8 January the National Intelligence Daily
will change format. It will be distributed to the
same readers and will continue to be coordinated in
the Intelligence Community. Late items, appearing in a
section of Overnight Reports, will be uncoordinated.
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RHODESIA: Pressure on Mozambique
//Over the past month, Rhodesian forces have launched
attacks in Zambia and Mozambique against government in-
stallations and forces that support Rhodesian nationalist
guerrillas. These attacks may reflect a change in Rhode-
sian Government policy stemming from frustration over the
inability of Rhodesian security forces to curtail guer-
rilla activity inside Rhodesia. Until recently, the Rho-
desians have sought to avoid Zambian and Mozambican mili-
tary targets when striking at Rhodesian guerrilla instal-
lations in these countries.// 25X1
//In mid-December, Rhodesian aircraft bombed a Zam-
bian Army base at which Zimbabwe African People's Union
guerrillas are being organized into conventional) armed
and trained battalion-sized units.
//Since early December, Rhodesian forces have at- 25X1
tacked Mozambican Army storage facilities, a military
convoy, and road and rail bridges in an effort to dis-
rupt the flow of supplies to the insurgents.//
Last weekend, Rhodesian jets bombed Mozambican Air
Force facilities at Beira airfield, according to sources
of the US Embassy in Maputo. Damage apparently was light;
civilian flights resumed on the evening of the attack.
Beira airfield has been used as a staging base for flights
to and from Tanzania and Ethiopia shuttling arms, re-
cruits, and trained guerrillas for the Zimbabwe African
National Union.
//Rhodesian security officials have become alarmed
by the increasing infiltration of guerrillas as well as
by guerrilla buildups along Rhodesia's borders with Zam-
bia and Mozambique. The Rhodesian officials have also
noted that their raids have not resulted in any expanded
role for the Soviets and Cubans in those countries. As
the fighting inside Rhodesia expands, and security forces
step up their efforts to disrupt staging and training
operations, the Rhodesian Government is likely to draw
even less distinction between guerrilla and government
installations during raids into neighboring countries.//
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//Anger and frustration are reportedly running high
in the Spanish military in the wake of the assassination
of two Army officers this week by the Basque terrorist
organization ETA. Emotional denunciations of Prime Min-
-ister Suarez and his government, and occasionally even
of the King, have become more frequent within the miZi-
E;ary since the killings, according to a Spanish Govern-
ment official. The US Embassy also reports that senior
members of the King's household are becoming seriously
concerned about the psychological climate within the
rri li tary. //
//Military reactions have been fanned by an ETA
communique issued this week declaring an "offensive"
against Spanish Army leaders. ETA killed two Army offi-
cers in Madrid last summer and a naval officer in the
Basque region in October, but until now the terrorists
have seemed reluctant to launch an all-out campaign
against the military.//
//In a desperate bid to prevent agreement between
Madrid and Basque moderates on regional autonomy stat-
utes, however, ETA has apparently decided to gamble on
provoking military intervention or a harsh crackdown
that would force Basques to choose between the govern-
ment and the separatists.//
The promulgation of Spain's new constitution last
week greatly reduced the possibility of military inter-
vention. Under the old laws, the King had the power to
replace the government, and the generals could have ap-
plied pressure on him to do so. Now, any change of gov-
ernment must be approved by parliament and--though the
majority of military leaders would prefer a more rightist
government--most of them are reluctant to break the law.
I
It is unclear how the armed forces would bear up to
a concerted terrorist campaign--especially if popular
troop commanders were attacked. Military leaders are
aware that imposing martial law on the Basque region
would play into ETA's hands. At a minimum, the military
would be likely to exert intense pressure on the govern-
ment to crack down on the Basques. This course, too,
would carry with it the danger of further polarizing
25X1 forces in the Basque region.
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//The Turkish Government of Prime Minister Ecevit
yesterday survived a motion of censure brought on by the
unrest Zate Zast month that Zed to martial law in 13
provinces. The vote demonstrates that Ecevit remains in
control of his party, but he apparentZy had to pay a
political price for his victory.// 25X1
The National Assembly refused by a vote of 226 to
210 to support a motion accusing the government of gross
negligence during the rioting in Maras that left more
than 100 persons dead. The motion was presented by oppo-
sition leader Suleyman Demirel, who hoped to draw defec-
tors from Ecevit's two-vote majority in the 450-seat as-
sembly.
Ecevit has always kept a wary eye on his left- and
rightwing rivals. Occasionally he has adjusted his poli-
cies slightly to take their views into account. Most of-
ten, however, he has ignored them, feeling safe in the
knowledge that the rank and file supported him.
//With his government under criticism from all sides,
Ecevit probably realized he could no longer either ignore
his rivals or placate them with minor concessions. Al-
though he probably will make some additional cabinet
changes to mollify them, he is not likely to make far-
reaching policy changes. Ecevit remains Turkey's most
popular politician and he knows that none of his rivals
in the party could muster sufficient support to remove
him as party leader.// 25X1
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I
A sizable portion of the Soviet winter grain crop
may have been damaged by freezing temperatures, which
reached -25 degrees Celsius in some areas late last
month. Hardest hit were the northern Ukraine and the
middle Volga valley, which together account for about a
third of the winter grain area. Earlier in December, un-
seasonably warm temperatures and rain melted the protec-
tive snow cover in both regions.
More complete weather data will soon be available,
percent from the previous year.
Problems at planting time last fall had already re uce
the total area sown with winter grains by more than 10
Argentina-Chile
//Chilean naval ships and military aircraft sent to
the Beagle Channel during the buildup there have left
the area, but 8,000 ground personnel remain. The Argen-
tine fleet and air units have also reportedly left the
area; about 25,000 Army and naval infantry troops remain
deployed,
//Both sides in the Beagle Channel dispute are par-
ticipating in efforts to find a peaceful solution, but
neither appears optimistic and they are maintaining
their forces in a state of readiness. Even after the re-
cent withdrawals, the level of forces on both sides is.
significantly higher than it was before the buildup be-
gan about a year ago.//
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