AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE IMPROVEMENT IN INTELLIGENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01554R003400160010-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: June 9, 1977
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/09/25 : CIA-RDP80BO1554RW3400160010-1
9 June 1977
SUBJECT: An Order of Magnitude Improvement in Intelligence
This memo addresses two questions: (1) Why the products of the
Community -- and in particular the CIA -- are shallower, more often
wrong, much less relevant than consumers need and can reasonably expect,
and (2) What a determined Director might do to achieve an order of
magnitude improvement in the quality of estimates and analyses used
in policy-making.
THE SHAPE OF THE PROBLEM
For over a decade, careful reviews of the intelligence Community's per-
formance have been unanimous: The U.S. government is not being well
served by present capabilities and procedures.
-- Repeatedly, Presidents, Secretaries of State, Defense and
Treasury, and their associates have not understood why foreign.
governments were taking certain actions, have acted on the basis
of poor bets about the actions of potential enemies or allies,
and have formulated actions aimed at one objective that in fact
produced counter-productive reactions from foreign governments.
-- Repeatedly, new appointees have been shocked to find that the
level of understanding embodied in intelligence products (for
example, on issues like Brazil's interest in nuclear weapons)
is not substantially deeper than what is available in the
open literature.
-- Repeatedly, reviews of the Community's current intelligence
reporting have found that it is not significantly better than
the best available current newspaper reporting (for example,
certain German and Swiss papers reporting of Yugoslavia, vs. the
Community).
Approved For Release 2006/09/25 : CIA-RDP80BO1554R003400160010-1
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Approved For Release 2006/09/25 : CIA-RDP80BO1554R003400160010-1