SOVIET ICBM AND OTHER BALLISTIC MISSILES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000900040002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 6, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 11, 1957
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved F2- Release 2001/08/0 ' CIA RDP79R0089OA000900040002-2
Icy
FING N
SOVIET ICBM i
08314
A. The intelligence community has re-evaluated its
estima-te* on Soviet ICBM program, advancing t
of probable first operational capability (from 1960-1961)
to some time in the period mid-1958 to mid-1959.
1. This date refers to availability of up
to 10 prototype ICBMs with high-yield nuclear
warheads in hands of trained personnel at
ospieted launching facilities,
A. Characteristics will probably approximate
5,300 nautical miles maximum range, accuracy
bout 5 nautical mile CEP, system reliability of
.bout 30 percent, Possible that as xiaua range
will be t shorter (Army holds at least
-4,500 ales) but in any case sufficient to
reach the U$,
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. Projecting forward, we estimate that taper
tional capability with 100 ICBMs could probably be
Tod about one year after first operational capa-
bility, and with $00 ICBMs about two or at most three
years after first operational capability (i... , mid-1960
to mid-1962)
B B. Re-evaluation is result of impressive Soviet testing since
ghed against background of Soviet ballistic
missile experience and our estimAte that ICBM. program has
very high priority if not actually on "crash" basis.
1. Basic propulsion systems (lot-ton thrust
engines) probably available since 1952 and Soviets now
well on their way toward solution of other ICBM problems.
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C. IRBM of 1, 000 nautical mile maadrn range could
probably become operational in 1958, based on scaling up
of 700-mild missile which we believe probably operational
since 1956.
. our current belief is that Soviets probably
temporarily satisfied with 1, 000 mile missile as their
and are placing top priority on achieving opera-
ICBM.
of the present targets on Lurastan
periphery which we believe the USSR would wish to
attack would be within range of a 700-mile missile fired
from within the Bloc; most would be within range of a
1, 000-mile missile.
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+ober P "....it s~oba r *mad have ready for aeries '..
do in Wxvut 1963 (or at the earliest possible date in 1960) an
yield nuclear warhead and a C of roughly 5 nautical
2 0 RL*grW 1.955 No now estimate that as soon as 1960-1961 the
'USSR could have reams for aeries produation an IC IN of 5500 nautical
mile range* with a large yield n .ear ,azrhead and a CE' of r
5 nauticAl miles,"
Caste estimate as in December 1955, noting that at
this date
94961) first unit could probably be ready for opera..
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