PROXMIRE RELEASES CIA REPORT ON SOVIET ECONOMY, WASHINGTON, D.C.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001404110053-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 6, 2008
• Sequence Number: 53
• Publication Date: November 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Approved For Release 2008/03/06: CIA-RDP88B00443R001404110053-6
Proxmire releases CIA report on Soviet Economy, Washington, D.C.
Senator William Proxmire,.Democrat, Wisconsin, released
today a new CIA report on economic trends in policy developments
in the Soviet Union. The study, prepared by the Office of Soviet
Analysis, CIA, was submitted by Mr. Robert Gates, Deputy Director
for Intelligence, together with testimony presented to the
subcommittee on international trade, finance, and security
economics of the joint economic committee. Proxmire is Vice
President of the subcommittee..
Proxmire stated in a statement from his Washington office;
"The study presents the results of the CIA's latest study of
the Soviet oil industries and Soviet energy projections into the
1990's, reviews the recent performance of the economy, and
provides new revised estimates of the Soviet defense spending."
"According to the CIA, Soviet economy actually has picked up
somewhat in the present year and the CIA now forcasts a growth
rate of 3.5 to 4 percent for 1983. However, the CIA has not
changed its estimate that Soviet GNP will average only about two
percent growth annually for the next several years."
"The improvement is due in part to improved weather during
the past year, in part due to Andropov's campaign for greater
discipline."
"In contrast with earlier estimates, energy is no longer
considered to be a serious constraint on economic growth during
the 1980's. "
"The CIA now believes the Soviet Union has avoided the
downturn in oil productiion that was once predicted. Oil
production is expected to continue growing, level off by the
middle of the decade, then decline slowly until 1990."
"The revised defense estimates show that the total cost of
defense since 1976 has risen by only two percent a year, compared
to the four to five percent annual growth rate previously
estimated. The slowdown in the growth rate is due to the
leveling off of military procurement since 1976."
"The slowdown, "Proxmire said, "of Soviet defense growth
rates has profound significance that has not yet penetrated
policy circles."
"In one sense, the CIA's new estimates demonstrated that the
Soviet defense program is very large and still growing, although
at a slower rate than before."
"But Moscow has not been expanding its effort at the rapid
rate that was once believed. Its slowed its defense expansion
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beginning about seven years ago, a fact that the Soviets
neglected to communicate and the West failed to detect."
Proxmire continued, "My own view of the Soviet economy is
that we in the West tend to magnify its weaknesses and to
overlook its strengths."
"The Soviet Unioin won't collapse or even stagnate for very
long just because they have an economic system we do not like."
"It's as important that we accurately assess Soviet economic
capabilities as it is that we accurately assess Soviet military
capabilities."
Copies of the CIA report USSR: Economic Trends and Policy
Developments," may be obained from the Joint Economic Committee,
Publication Department, G-O1 Dirksen Senate Office Building,
Washington, D.C., 20510, or by calling [phone].
Approved For Release 2008/03/06: CIA-RDP88B00443R001404110053-6