SIS SABBATICAL - (SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 26, 2008
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 17, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
~L\_439
MEMORANDUM FOR : Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA : Director of Personnel
FROM : Robert M. Gates
Deputy Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT : SIS Sabbatical
1. Action requested-
proposal submitted b
7d SIS sabbatical
2. Background: is in his twentieth year with the
Agency. In 1965 he started as an analyst in the Foreign Missiles and
Space Analysis Center(FMSAC). FMSAC has, through several iterations,
evolved to OSWR In 1970 .
in CRES
After a one-year tour to the Department of Ener
i
gy
n
assigned to his present position as chief of th IPC S IOU
then
d three
formal education is in aerospace engineerin
ha
i
g,
v
ng attended the
Universities of Colorado, Southern California, and Minnesota where
he received the Ph.D. in 1962. Befo g to the Agency he worked
at Lockheed Missiles and Space
He was a visiting professor
3. Staff position: In his proposa is quite correct
in stating that over the years there has been a search for a better
way to make procurement decisions on new collection systems, and that
so far this search has been unsuccessful. I agree also that the obsta-
cles are largely managerial, not technical. While the entrepreneurial
approach has served us quite well by and large, we cannot continue to
RQPPT
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
25X1
LOA I
2 All
25X1
LOA I
2J;~ I
 Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
rely solely on the old methods. Satellite systems are becoming more
costly and more multi-purpose, so that with anticipated funding con-
straints we w T have fewer kinds of systems and each decision will
be much more critical to our overall capabilit . How
ake these
decisions is a vital and far-reaching issue. suggested
W7
approach is risky, in that it is not at all clear to what extent the
methods of industry can be effectively transferred to government. But
the cost is low, and the potential payoff is great, certainly much
ter than many PEIs which can cost 30 to 40 times more. Furthermore,
is well qualified -- in terms of background, training,
exper fence and capability -- to undertake such an investi ation. I endorse
His sabbatical proposal and recommend your a
r
val
pp
o
Robert M Gates
Attachment:
SiS Sabbatical Request
/q/ :Tn1+n W. . 1iofl
2 7 DEC 1984
Deputy Director of Central intelligence
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
 Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
SUBJECT: SIS Sabbatical ~
Distribution:
Original - Addressee
1 - Director of Personnel
1 - Official personnel folder
1 - DDI Personnel
1 - IPC Staff (ch rono)
1 - IPC Staff (Klaimon
DDI/I PCStaff/
5 December 1984)
crPnrT
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
PAGE 3
 Approved For Release 2008/03/26 CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
v~.arr ~r. o
? DEC 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR : Deputy Director for Intelligence
THROUGH : Associate Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM
t-niet, a
SUBJECT : SIS Sabbatical Request(U)
1. This memorandum presents for your consideration a sabbatical
program directed at the problem of making responsible decisions regarding
the procurement of major new collection systems. This program will focus
on the management aspects of this problem, primarily by examining how
successful senior managers in the private sector accomplish decision
making, and how these processes might be transferred to government oper-
ations. I request your endorsement, signified by signing the accompanying
transmittal memorandum to the DDCI. (U)
2. From time to time over the past twenty years the DCI and other
senior Community managers have expressed interest in improving the way
in which collection program decisions are made. The usual response is the
development of some scheme whereby intelligence analysts are asked their
opinion, together with an aggregation process to provide an overall sense
of value. Of course, the collection program managers normally do talk to
the analysts when new collection concepts are being proposed. But in keep-
ing with the entrepreneurial approach of the collectors, only affirmative
responses are recorded and reported. This usually works fine as long as
funding constraints do not force program trade-offs. It is only when
difficult choices are in the offing, or when it is evident that wrong
decisions were made in the recent past, that a comprehensive process of
analyst polling is sugpested. This is the situation in which we now
find ourselves.
RPVTi 25X1
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
 Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
vvvnAm^ l I
3. No conceptual, and few practical, obstacles stand in the way
of a quick, reliable, and accurate process for involving the analysts
in collection system evaluation. A complete set of requirements is poten-
tially available through the Future Intelligence Requirements Forecast.
Modern computer applications, with relatively straight-forward software
developments, will allow individual analysts to register their judgments
of the actual or anticipated collection contribution of any or all avail-
able or Dronosed systems. Aggragation can be accomplished in almost real
4. What then stands in the way of applying such a process to actual
decisions? Only senior managers' reluctance to use the results. A past
director of a national program office put it very clearly and succinctly.
After being a participant in the design and implementation of an analyst-
polling process, when the final judgment did not match his intuitive
choice, he asked "What do the analysts know, anyway?" And his final deci-
sion was based on his own intuition
5. So the real problem is not one of involving the analysts. We know
how to do this, and it certainly must be part of any process. Rather, the
problem centers on devising a way to involve the managers; to have them
agree to use, and to actually use, the analysts' judgments as to the
value of collection. We need to find a way to encourage senior collection
managers to admit that the analysts, when given sufficient information,
really do know what they are talking about. Indeed, we must make the
managers believe that only the analysts can realistically judge collec-
6. None of this is straight-forward; much of it may not even be
possible. But there are significant benefits to be gained if even a
partial solution can be found. I feel it is worth the risk of a small
investment. Consequently, I propose a sabbatical program to examine how in-
dustry makes key programmatic decisions, and to develop a parallel decision
concept for the Intelligence Community. This will involve visits to a num-
ber of successful private companies and interviews with the senior officials
to determine how they think through their major decisions, what staff support
is provided, how confidence in staff judgments is maintained, how conflict-
ing recommendations are handled, and how decisions are implemented and
progress monitored. I will also take several courses in program management
at a local university.
7. A major task will be to find a measure of collection value which
is analagous to the profit measure used in industry. I will not, however,
develop a specific process for obtaining analyst involvement. This is
already being addressed by CRES and the IPC Staff. Rather, I will
describe a process which starts with aggragated analysts' views and
carries these through to an NFIP decision by the DC].
nrnnr
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
 trnnrr
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
.1 1
PAGE 3
8. The attachment provides details of the sabbatical program, which
will extend for eleven months and cost approximately $20,000 in addition
to my salary. If successful the results will have broad and significant
benefit to the Community for many years to come. This will of course depend
not only on my report, but also on the willingness and ability of Community
officials to implement a set of procedures which will make arbitrary decisions
more evident and therefore more difficult. Upon completion of tho ca batical
I would expect to be assigned to lead the implementation team)
SFP.Rrr
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
SIS Sabbatical -
1. OBJECTIVE - to develop a management concept which will use analyst
judgments to make collection system procurement decisions.
2. SUB-TASK - to devise a measure of collection utility, analagous to
the profit measure of industry, for cost-benefit decisions.
3. DURATION - eleven months, commencing mid- January 1985.
4. COMPANIES TO BE VISITED -
a. The Boeing Company
b. Digital Equipment Corporation
c. General Electric Company
d. Hewlett Packard
e. IBM
f. Lockheed Missiles and Space Company
g. Texas Instruments
h. 3M
5. COURSES TO BE TAKEN - George Washington University
SPRING, '85
E. Ad. 231 Program Management
E. Ad. 255 Administration of Research and Development
SUMMER, '85
E. Ad. 269 Elements of Decision Making and Problem Solving
E. Ad. 297 Problems in Engineering Administration
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
 Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3
FALL, '85
E.Ad. 281 Systems Analysis and Management I
E.Ad. 288 Technology Issue Analysis
E. Ad. 386 Advanced Topics in Management
6. COST ESTIMATE -
a. Travel - one visit to each of the eight companies, with
follow-up trips to fo
ur companies.
12 trips of 5 days each
air fare, @ $500 each trip
lodging, @ $300 each trip
meals, @ $100 each trip
car, @ $200 each trip
b. Study -
21 semester hours of courses @ $198 each
books - 7 courses @ $75 each
incidental fees at GWU
C. Supplies and services -
supplies from the stock room
computer services from standard programs
d. Total cost = $18,033
$6000
3600
1200
2400
$13200
$4158
525
150
$4833
no extra charge
PAGE 2
Approved For Release 2008/03/26: CIA-RDP89B00423R000400610002-3