FRAMEWORK FOR A U.S. NEGOTIATING APPROACH

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000300470005-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 2, 2006
• Sequence Number: 5
• Content Type: MISC

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FRAMEWORK FOR A U.S.
NEGOTIATING APPROACH
State Dept. review completed
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FRAMEWORK FOR A U.S.,
NEGOTIATING APPROACH
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PURPOSE
BEGIN DISCUSSIONS ON THE FRAMEWORK OF AN OPENING START POSITION.
CENTRAL QUESTION
WHAT ELEMENTS OF STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES DO WE WANT TO REDUCE?
CORROLLARY
TO WHAT LEVELS DO WE WANT TO REDUCE?
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 STRATEGIC ARMS
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.EDUMON ..L., BASIC OBJECTIVES OF A U.S. POSITION
? MILITARY SUFFICIENCY
STRATEGIC STABILITY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
POLITICALLY PLAUSIBLE
VERIFIABLE
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WHAT SHOULD BE REDUCED?
UNIT OF ACCOUNT
BALLISTIC MISSILE WARHEADS
LAUNCHERS
MISSILE THROW-WEIGHT
WARHEAD WEIGHT.
BOMBERS
BOMBER ARMAMENT
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CRITERIA FOR UNIT
OF ACCOUNT SELECTION
EASILY UNDERSTOOD
WIDE SUPPORT
DEALS WITH IMPORTANT ASYMMETRIES
TOUGH BUT PLAUSIBLE
PROTECT ALLIED INTERESTS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH INF
VERIFIABLE
FLEXIBLE AND DURABLE FRAMEWORK
FOR NEGOTIATIONS
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 STRATEGIC ARMS
REDUCTION TALKS
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THE STRATEGIC BALANCE
1982
9500
U.S.
7500
U.S.S.R.
5.1
415
INVENTORY SALT
MISSILE ACCOUNTABLE
WARHEADS MISSILE
WARHEADS
SNDVs MISSILE BOMBERS
--------------
THROW. WEIGHT
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 STRATEGIC ARAB
REDUCTION TALKS
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AGENCY APPROACHES
WARHEADS
LAUNCHERS
THROW-WEIGHT
BOMBERS
1) HEAVY-MISSILE:
STATE
YES
YES
REDUCTION
YES
(59000)
(1,500)
2) ICBM WARHEAD
(250)
REDUCTION
ACDA
YES.
NO
WARHEAD
YES
(4,000)
WEIGHT LIMIT
(250)
OSD
'YES
NO
REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE
(4,000)
TO U.S. LEVEL
(250)
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 STRATEGIC ARMS
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REDUCTION TALKS
UNIT OF ACCOUNT
WARHEADS
LAUNCHERS
THROW-WEIGHT
WARHEAD WEIGHT
BOMBERS
BOMBER ARMAMENT
ANALYSIS
CRITERIA , '
EASILY UNDERSTOOD
- WIDE SUPPORT
DEALS WITH IMPORTANT ASYMMETRIES
TOUGH BUT PLAUSIBLE
PROTECT ALLIED INTERESTS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH INF
VERIFIABLE
FLEXIBLE AND DURABLE FRAMEWORK
FOR NEGOTIATIONS
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FOCUS FOR DISCUSSIONS
How does our choice of units of account help us to achieve significant reductions and
also protect our military requirements?
How does our choice of units of account build or undercut support for the President's
strategic modernization program and for the defense program as a whole?
What is the political environment surrounding START? How does the choice of units of
account build or undercut support for the U.S. position:
- with the public?
- in Congress?
- with our Allies?
Is continuity with SALT I and SALT II good or bad?
How does verification bear on the choice of the U.S. negotiating proposal?
Are some proposals more resilient than others? What is the relationship between our
negotiating position and the likely course of the negotiations?
Do we require equality In every important measure of strategic capability? What are the
requirements of Public Law 92-448?
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 SECRET
WEAPONS
20000-r
15000-
10000
5000
82
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US WEAPONS
FIVE YEAR DEFENSE PROGRAMS
MISSILE WARHEADS
84
86
88 90
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91
SECRET
 SECRET
WEAPONS
82
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USSR WEAPONS
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
(FORCE 1)
TOTAL
MISSILE WARHEADS
84 86 88 90 91
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SECRET
WEAPONS
20000
15000
10000
5000 t
82
TOTAL US WEAPONS
MISSILES AND BOMBERS
IF AGENCY START PROPOSALS FULLY
IMPLEMENTED BY 1991
84 86
88 90 91
SECRET
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