TRANSMITTAL OF CIA ANALYSIS OF 1974/75 GRAIN SITUATION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030045-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 37
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 45
• Publication Date: September 11, 1974
• Content Type: MF

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Approved For Release 2007/02/08 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030045-6
 S
MICRU
ONLY
11 ScpL. tuber 1974
instructions apply. 1 - D/NE
Acting c1liez
industrial Nations Division
Office of I:conc is Research
State' Dept. review completed J. - C/RE
1 - I/NA 1 - D/SA
1 - I/JP 1 - S/EC
1 - D/LA
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Agriculture release /
1 - U/SR
Approved For Release 2007/4'~~85~fQ875R00190003J0045;6
M"-10R7s!WU'1 FOR: flr. Philip DuSault
international air3 Division
Office of llanagc:a%,nt and Budget
SUBJECT : Transmittal of CIA analysis of
1974/75 Grain Situation in
Selected Countries
In response to your request of 23 August we are
trans:zi.tti ng c -m update of the report sent to you on 16 July.
The fornat, coverage and countries reviewed are similar to
the 16 July report. Queries concerning this report shc:uld
be directed to
Attache e t:
As stated
Distribution: (S-6376)
Orig. & 1 - Addressee
1 - D/OER
1 - D/I
On file Department of St/P
1-sar'R
 """" 'Appi`dVbd'FOr Release 2007/02/05 :'CIA-RDP8&T0O875ROO1900030045=&
C 11 F!DEfITiL
The Grain Situation in Selected
Countries for FY 1975
Agricultu:e and Materials Branct
Office of Economic Research
Central Intelligence Agency
9 September 1974
Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030045-6
 The Grain Situation in Selected
Countries i.-,or FY 75
CONHDENTIPL
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Approved For Release 2007(0 is H~nq$P/,T1g0875R001900030045-6
Introduction
This report updates an earlier .ersion* based on
information available since early July on grain production
and trade prospects for key "swing" countries and on grain
import needs of potential US Food Aid Program (PL-480)
recipients in fiscal year 1975. The swing countries include
Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Western Europe -- major
western exporters of wheat -- and the USSR, PRC, Eastern
Europe, and India -- potential. disruptive factors in the
grain market. Potential PL-480 recipients considered in the
report (in addition to India) are Bangladesh Burma, Cambodia,
Egypt, Indonesia, Morocco, Pakistan, Philippines, Sahel,
South Korea, South Vietnam, and Sri Lanka. While most of
the analysis deals with wheat, the import demand for coarse
grains -- especially corn -- is reviewed where important
because of deterioration in the 1974 US production situation.
Principal Findings
1. The 1974/75 world grain situation has tightened and
prices have strengthed during the past 2 months for several
reasons.
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 Approved For Release 2007 91414 i.6 tf_6F 8, D875R001900030045-6
?The US grain production estimate was cut
39 million tons.
?USSR wheat output was cut 7 million tons by CIA.
?A drop of over 1 million tons in the C:::nadian
Wheat Board estimate of this year's wheat crop
and transport strikes have reduced Canada's
potential grain export capability for FY 75.
?The USSR has reportedly turnecl down India's
request for 2 million tons of wheat.
?Wc.r1d rice production is now projected by USDA
to be several million tons below last year.
2. The production shortfalls and transport difficulties
are reflected in a reduced export availability for wheat among
most foreign exporte-s as well as the US. We estimate this
drop at 6.8 million tons from our July 15 estimate, as shown
in the following table, to 56 million tons. This quantity
is 5 million tons less than the 61. million tons exported in FY 74.
Wheat and F'.our Exports by Selected Count_.ies
(Million Metric tons)
FY 73 F
Y 74 Forecast FY 75
July 15 Sept. 9
Argentina
3.5
1.1
3.4
3.0
Australia
5.5
6.0
8.0
8.7a/
Canada
15.6 1
1.5
12.5
11.5
W. Europeb/
7.3
6.5
7.0
4.0a/
USSR
1.3
5.0
5.0
4.0
US
32.0 3
1'.0
26.9
25.8S/
TOTAL
65.2 6
1.1
62.8
56.0
a/ Mid-point of range
b/ Excluding intra EC 9 trade
r./ Based on USDA forecast of 950 million bushels
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 Appr' ved'F0r R21ease'2007/02%08-: CIA-RDP85T00875R001900-030645-6'
CONFID~.k 1Irll
The total available for export could be increased
by another one or two million tons if US stocks are permitted
to fall and/or the final wheat harvest is larger than
now estimated. For Western Europe, however, the estimate
of 4 million tons may he on the high side if demand for feed
wheat exceeds current projections.
3. A number of uncertainties continue to cloud the ,
demand side of the grain market. The two most important
are (1) the extent to which depressed demand for meat in
developed countries and high grain. prices will lower total
feedgrain requirements, and (2) whether the size and quality
of grain stocks held by the -USSR will forestall sizeable
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imports in FY 75.
4. Production prospects in India have not improved
and grain import requirements may be closer to 7 million
tons than our earlier 'estimate of 5 million tons. India. will
need foreign help to finance part of this larger amount.
5. Among other potential aid recipients, grain import
needs appear to have risen in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and
South Korea. Th:; grain situation or ability to finance
imports has improved in the case of Indonesia, Morocco, Pakistan,
Philippines, and Sri Lanka. Egypt continues to exaggerate
grain import requirements which suggests a stockpiling effort.
CONFIDENTIAL
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The "Sewing Countries"
(Major Exporters and/or importers)
1. Argentina
2. Australia
3. Canada
4. Western Europe
5. Eastern Europe
6. USSR
7. PRC
B. India
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Argentina
Assuming normal growing conditions the 1974/75 wheat
harvest beginning in December should be about 7.5 million
tons, 20 percent above last year. Higher support prices
have induced an expansion of the area sown to wheat to
the 3.972 level of 5 million hectares. On the other hand,
output of the two principal feed grains, corn and sorghum,
are expected to be down by at least 10 percent.
Despite an overall net reduction in total grain output,
large carryover stocks should provide export availabilities
of both wheat and feed grains in FY 75 well above the
previous year.
Million tons
Production Exports Export Anticipated
1973/74 1974/75 FY 74 Availability Actual
FY 75 Shipments
FY 75
Wheat 6.2 7.5 1.1 3.4 3.0
Sorghum 6.0 4.8 3.0 2.7 2.7
Corn 10.0 9.4 5.1 5.5 4.9
Actual grain shipments will fall me 10 percent below estimated
availabilities because of inadequate transport and storage
facilities. Grain shipments from the 1973/74 crop to central
elevators are currently running 1 million tons behind schedule
with about 3 million tons of corn still in rural areas. About
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