IRAN-IRAQ AND DANGER OF A WIDER WAR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200020008-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: November 14, 1980
• Content Type: MF

25X1 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200020008-6
Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200020008-6
 Approved For'oWeleaseT26D7ft012Ht1CSI-RIdI #aBO102000200020008-6
Washington, D. C. 20505
MORI review(s)
completed.
ALERT MEMORANDUM
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Security Council
SUBJECT: Iran-Iraq and Danger of a Wider War
Recent attacks by Iranian aircraft on Kuwaiti border installations
raise the possibility that Tehran is now prepared to widen the war in
order to stop Arab aid to Iraq. I believe the greatest danger--should
Iran continue this course of action--is the possibility that Kuwaiti or
other Arab oil facilities will become targets for Iranian attacks.
0
STANSFIELD TURNER
TOP SECRE
Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200020008-6
 TOP SECRET 25X1
Approved For'Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP83B010000200020008-6
14 November 1980
ALERT MEMORANDUM*
IRAN-IRAQ: Danger of a Wider War
The Iranian airstrikes near Kuwaiti border installa-
tions on 12 November and possibly 5 November have increased
the danger of a wider war in the Persian Gulf. While it
is not certain that these strikes were intended actually
to hit targets within Kuwait, their purpose was clearly
to intimidate the Kuwaitis. Tehran may now be willing to
use selective military action against Kuwait and possibly
other gulf states to discourage them from aiding Baghdad.
The airstrikes apparently were intended to discourage Kuwait from
continuing its current transshipment of Iraqi goods. Tehran has fre-
quently warned the Arabs that support for Iraq will lead to Iranian
reprisals.
became clear that Iraq would not achieve a quick victory, the Kuwaitis
and other gulf countries began trying to play down their support for
Iraq, but both Iraqi pressure and Arab nationalist sentiment compel them
to continue providing substantial aid to Baghdad.
The Alert Memorandum is an interagency publication issued by the
Director of Central intelligence on behalf of the Intelligence
Community. Its purpose is to ensure that senior poZicymakers are
aware of impending potential developments that may have serious
implications for US interests. It is not a prediction that these
developments will occur. This memorandum has been coordinated at
the working level with CIA, DIA, NSA, State/INR, and Army.
Approved For Relea 292F Fq
 Approved For`lCelease 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP83BO102 000200020008-6
If Tehran decides to widen the war by escalating its
attacks on Kuwait or striking other gulf states, the United
States could become more directly involved in the conflict.
US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia, would very
likely request additional security assistance from the United
States. I
There is also a danger that US forces in the area could
be attacked--either deliberately or in error--by the Iranians.
Tehran has already accused the United States of supplying in-
telligence collected by the AWACS aircraft to Iraq. Addition-
ally, Iranian officials have reported that the US
naval facility in Bahraill lb dlUlll~ Baghdad. Tehran also
believes that the United States has concluded a secret agree-
ment with the United Arab Emirates requiring American assist-
ance in the event of an Iranian attack.
If the gulf Arabs ignore Tehran's warnings, Iran could
launch further strikes, perhaps against oil installations.
The Iranian Air Force retains a capability to do this all
along the gulf littoral. Iran's more aggressive military
attacks on Iraqi oil installations during the past week
have already made the risk of another explosion in world
oil prices much greater. Given the indefinite suspension
of exports from both Iran and Iraq, the market has no
further room to absorb even small additional interruption
of supplies from the other gulf countries. II
The Soviets are concerned that a wider war would
lead to closer US cooperation with the area's conserva-
tive Arab states and an expanded US military presence.
The Soviets probably would therefore give additional
support to efforts already under way to end the conflict.
Moscow would also likely renew its proposal for joint
discussions on the security of international maritime
and oil traffic. I I
2
Approved For Release 2007/02/03 . - Llr-u[ B01027R000200020008-6
TOP SECRET
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200020008-6
Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200020008-6