NIE 72.1-1-76: RHODESIA AT THE CROSSROADS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91M00696R000200020022-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: October 1, 1976
• Content Type: MF

S E C R E T
Approved For Release 2004/05/13 : CIA-RDP91 M00696R0DG200020022-9
MEMORANDUM FOR: Richard Lehman, D/DCI/NI
, NIO/SSEAAF
SUBJECT NIE 72.1-1-76: RHODESIA AT THE CROSSROADS
1. In view of the rapidly changing events in Africa, we
propose to reorganize -- and largely rewrite -- the first draft
of the NIE on Rhodesia. The Director of INR, Hal Saunders, who
traveled with Dr. Kissinger on the latter's recent African trip,
has given us comments on the first draft and has suggested a
number of questions that should be addressed in a reorganized
draft. He has also expressed the view that we should proceed
with the estimate now, at a deliberate pace, rather than postpone
it for several months in the hope that the prospects for
negotiations will become clearer. He believes that the estimate
should be completed by around mid-November. In addition, Hal
thinks that we should steer clear in this estimate of discussing
the negotiating tactics of various countries or the prospects for
particular negotiating courses, and should stress instead the more
basic factors affecting a possible political solution and the
consequences of success or failure thereof.
2. Attached is a new outline of the estimate, with proposed
drafting responsibilities indicated in parentheses after each
topic. The outline and drafting assignments were discussed at a
meeting of representatives of the various agencies on 30 September,
and it was understood that some portions of the estimate would
not require a complete redrafting of the previous version.
3. The NIO proposes the following tentative schedule for
production of the estimate:
22 October Draft contributions due to the NIO.
29 October Draft of whole estimate to be sent by
NIO to all agencies.
8 November Coordination meetings begin.
18 November Consideration by the NFIB and issuance
of estimate.
S E C R E T
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It was recognized by all hands at our 30 September meeting that
developments in Africa could force changes in this schedule.
4. Two representatives at the 30 September meeting, those
of CIA's Office of Current Intelligence and of the Navy, registered
objections to proceeding with the estimate at this time. They
felt that it would be difficult and perhaps impossible to prepare
a useful NIE until the prospects for and course of a negotiated
settlement became clearer. The representatives of other agencies
felt that it was feasible, despite the difficulties, to go
forward with the estimate as outlined under the tentative schedule
presented above.
5. NIO recommendation: That we proceed with the estimate as
proposed in paragraphs 1-3 above and in the attached outline, and
that we follow the general guidelines suggested by the Director
of INR.
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6 August 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR: Steering Group Members
All NIOs
1. There are wide variations in the content of the footnotes
used in IIMs to indicate who prepared the Memorandum and at what
level it was coordinated. I do not want to put us into a strait
jacket, but I believe it would be useful if we could achieve a
somewhat more standard format for such footnotes. I would also like
to work out agreed upon procedures to ensure that IIMs have been
appropriately cleared as indicated in the footnote before they are
issued in final form.
2. Please designate one person from your office to
who will be my representative, to serve on a short-term
wor ing group to look into this matter. The group will convene
after Labor Day.
Richard Lehman
Deputy to the DCI for National Intelligence
Distribution:
1 - each addressee
?-1.-- Steering Group File
1 -- D/DCI/NI Chrono
1-RI
1 - AEO/NI
1 - EO/NI
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