PERIODIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT ON SOVIET INTENTIONS AND ACTIVITIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91T01172R000400200004-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2002
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: July 27, 1950
• Content Type: IR

Approv Release EN1I f EDP91 T0~1 8000400200004-3
PERIODIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT ON
SOVIET INrEPJTIONS AND ACTIVITIES
?om: 20 July 1950
To : 26 July 1950
Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2
Department of the Army
Washington 25., D. C.
27 July 1950
No, 4.
1. U.S.S.R. SITUATION AT M ND OF PERIOD
a The Soviet Union is in the advanced stages of preparation for
war and could initiate offensive operations with no additional
warning;, Reliable intelligence on Soviet intentions to go to
var in the near future is lacking,
b, There is no reliable information that an attack on Taiwan is
imminent.
co Recent indications point to a continuation of Soviet prepared-
ness mea3urea, especially in the field of stockpiling and
Communist Party activities,
2, SOVIET-COMMUNIST OPERATIONS DURING PERIOD
a, Summary.--Ji"here is no reliable information that an attack on
Taiiian is imminent. Preparedness measures in Europe are
continuing but there is no irxication of imminent hostilities,
The U.S.S.R. is intensifying; efforts to secure industrial raw
materials, There have been several reports of unusual Communist
Party preparations.
b. Operations of enemy component elements.
(1)
(2)
Document No. ----------`'
No Change In Class. ^
movements In South China, Reconnaissance has not
need reports of unusual concentrations of Junks in
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Ruth.: R 70-R
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KOREA.--See current situation reports,
CHINA.-The shelling of Quemoy may be a preliminary to
an attack on Taiwan, There is no new information on
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(3) JAPAN.-The Soviets have not accounted for some 30U.,000
Japanese prisoners of war who might be utilized far
an attack on Japan., but there has been no indication
of a Soviet intent to attack Japan.
(4) GERRMY.-airfield construction in the Soviet Zone has
been accelerated and Soviet jet aircraft have been
reported over the U.S. Zone. Recent troop movement
into Germany has exceeded departures but there is
insufficient evidence to indicate a buildup of units
above peacetime strength.
(5) BALKAT:IS.-There are no reliable indications that an att.:,ok
on Yugoslavia., Greece or Turkey is imminent,
(6) GENERAL.--The U.S.S.R. has intensified its efforts to
secure, rubber and other strategic raw materials during
1950, There is come evidence of increased Communist
preparations for sabotage and of unusual Communist
Party preparations in Western countries. There have
been a number of reports of Soviet and Communist
activities scheduled to be completed in the fall of
1950 which may indicate a further Soviet move of some
type at that time
3 V See Tab "A", attached.
4o SOVINT CAPABILITIES.--Soviret capabilities to attack Japan have
increased as the result of the movement of U.S. forces from
Japan to Korea. There has been no apparent cha-%*e in Soviet
capabilities in Europe or the Rear East,
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TAB LAa
ESTIMATE OF SOVIET INTENTIONS TO 00 TO WAR IN TIM IM DIATE FUTURE
Proceedings of the IIP Steering Committees 26 July 1950
to Soviet Intentions in the Far Easte
a. In China, there is no reliable new evideee of Chinese
Communist troop movements either northward towards Manohuria or into
the Fukien area opposite Taiwune The shelling of Quemoy may be a
preliminary to an attack on Taiwan, as the Nationalist garrison there
would be of some hindramoe to Commn2lnist forces moving from Amoy, but
it is not necessarily a preliminary action presaging an iniodiate
attack on Taiwan. Reports of a large concentration of junks moving
northward up the South China coast were not confirmed by U. S. Naval
observation,, although there have been recent reports of a general
northward movement of junnks. Aerial rsoomnaissance of Ooastal waters
opposite Taiwan also failed. to reveal asW large or unusual conoontra'
tion of junks, although this observation does not necessarily preclude
a general buildup of boats. along the Fukien ooasto A U. S. Naval
reconnaissance plane was attacked by an unidentified fighter plane over
the Taiwan Strait on 25 Julys The Chines. Com=aniat radio has again
reiterated the Communist intent to attack Taiwan, quoting a statement
of Chan Ti, Corms= der of the Tbird Field Art , that this Amy has the
mission of liberating Taiwan and is intensively preparing to do soo
Weather for operations in the Taiwan Strait would not be favorable
after about 15 September.
b. An unconfirmed report states that a People m5 Liberation
Government is to be established in Japan on 15 Auguste A previous
report had stated that a Liberation Government for Japan was being
established in North Korea and that several members of the Japanese
Commmist Party had gone to Korea. The Japanese polio* are at present
unable to locate nine members of the Japanese Commuunist Politburo.
The Soviets still retain same 300.000 Japanese prisoners of war who
might be utilised to spearhead an attack on Japan as a "Liberation
Ari f," but that the* has been no evidence that the Soviets are training
or organising the Japanese as oomplete military units. Some recent
reconnaissance by Soviet planes over Japan has been reported*
a. There have boon a few recent and unconfirmed reports that
an attack on Judo China is imminent, but there continue to beano poeitive
deferred
indications of it, Intensified operations in Indo China may
until an attack on Taiwan is under way or possibly until autumn.
de There is little now evidence of intensified Communist
activity on the Burma border, although ans report has been received of
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Chinese Coariunist military preparations on the border. Because of the
presence of Chinese Nationalist troops in Burma, an excuse for Coamwnist
intervention exists.
*0 From the foregoing, it is concluded that,
(1) There is no reliable evidence that a Chinese Com mmist
attack on Taiwan is immnine nt,
(2) There is no evidence of a Soviet intent to attack
Japan, although Soviet capabilities to do so have been increased by the
diversion of U. S. forces from Japan to Korean
(5) Intensified military operations against Ind. China and
Burma do not appear to be i' inent, although the Chinese aomomoonists
possess the oapabiii1r for such action.
(4) There is no now ovidenos of a Soviet intent to enplay
their own forces in overt military oporati ns in the Far East.
2, Soviet Intentions in Western Europe and the Balkanse
and 111
a* In Germany, work has been accelerated on seven large alz%.
field runways, and it is expected that all of these will be completed by
1 October 19509 The Soviets will then have tsentr airfields in Germany
capable of sustaining jet fighter operations. The count of jet aircraft
in the Soviet Zone of Germ any is now 349, a slight iwrlease over a month
ago. During early July, there wars two reported instances of the flight
of Jet aircraft, presumably Soviet, over the U. S. Zone, possibly for
reoonnaissanoe purposes. There has been a gradual Increase in Soviet
mobile radar stations in Germany and an increase in sotivity of these
stations, probably training,
b. Available information, based an partial coverage of rail
lines in Eastern Germany, indicates that the number of new Soviet troops
entering Germany during May and June exceeded the number departing. It
is thus possible that there has been an increase in total troop strength
in Germany and that units are being brought up above peacetime strength,
Present information is unsufficient to wept this, ho ever, particularly
as there has been evidence of a gradual deenobilisation of troops inn
Germany during the past several months. In Austria, there was also a
somewhat larger incoming movement of troops during June than departures,
but information there is also insufficient to establish that a buildup
of units is ooourr?ing,,.
o, There Is now additional evidence that Soviet reserve officers
are being assigned to service in Germany ehioh supports previous inform
tion that callups of reserve officers have been increased during recent
nontins, Fragmentary information indicates that spring Inductions in the
U.S.S.R. inoldded previously deferrod personnel of the 1928 olaas as
wall as normal call-ups of the 1930 olass, It is probable that some
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members of the 1931 class, which is now registered in the U.S.S.R., Will
be called up by the fall of 1950.
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00 Investigations by the U. S. Ar1r Attache and other Western
Attaches have produced no substantiation of rumors that Soviet troops
are disposed on the southern border of Bhngary Opposite Yugoslavia. Ob-
servati one of the two Soviet divisions in Mngary continue to reveal no
unusual aotivii? or movement towards the Yugoslav border..
f. In Rmania, ,there is some additional, although unconfirrmed,
ftformation which indicates that there have been increased military
shipments into the Rumanian Banat during recent weeks, and increased
arrivals of Soviet troops and equipment in Eastern Rumaniae
g. There is no new informtion from Bulgaria of unusual troop
movommnts. While there appears to have been a considerable amount of
military movement in Bulgaria during the past several weeks, there is
still no evidence that this is other than training activity, The call-
up of a number of reserve officers and NCOQs is established*
he Reliable observations in Yugoslavia have not revealed a
reinforcement of Yugoslav border units, evacuation of civilians from
the border area, or other activity which would indicate the Yugoslavs
believe an attack to be imminent.
I. Construction has begun on double-tracking of an East-West
rail line in northern Poland which will bypass Rarsawo Work is s will
under w in southern Poland on a principal Eastul'aest highway which
be a firstwolaas military highway when completed. In Huogary& reliable
observation indicates little additional progress since MW on a new rail
line in the Northeast near the Soviet and Czechoslovakian borders.
jo From the above it to concluded that,
(1) There continues to be no evidenee of iuinent hostilities
against Western Europe, but there are continuing indications of prepara-
tions for such action.
(2) There is no new evidence of intensified preparedness
for Immediate military action in the Balkan,.
(3) An attack in either of these areas could occur without
additional warning.
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So General Indications of Soviet Intentionso
as Analysis of recent evidence of Soviet strategic purchases
abroad indicates an intensification of efforts to procure industrial
raw materials either for war stockpiling or for immediate expansion of
war production. The following recent indications of this policy are in
line with mew similar reports received in recent months,,
(1) Soviet monthly purchases of natural rubber during 1950
have exceeded monthly averages during 1949. it continued at the present
rate, rubber purchases during 2950 will reach a total of 180,000 tons,,
as oaapared with an estimated axmuat oonsumptian of 73,000 tons of natural
rubber.
(2) A report, as yet unaonfirmeda states that the British
are planning to import 400 tons of nimonic alloys from the U. S. for
trans-shipment to the U. S. S. A. These alboye are used in jet engine
productioao
(3) The reported shipment of 40,000 flasks of mercury from
Spain to Israel, if oonfirmod, would surely indicate re-export to the
U.BoS.R., as this amount vastly jormlss
p cure large ~
were reports several months ago
amounts of mercury from Spain.
ba There have been a number of recent reports of unusual
Communist party activities, including possible preparations for an its
tensified sabotage program.
(1) An unconfirmed report states that directions
will coon be is sated to Communist parties pan or world-+wido sabotage,
particularly of material for the Korean war. The press has reported
recent articles in Pravda to the effect that the Stockholm peace appeal
is a call for action to prevent the shipments of war material* The
British have stated that a recent explosion of =munition barges at ports-
mouth was the result of deliberate sabotage, and there has been rile in-
stance of amateurish sabotage of a munitions train in the U. S. Despite
those attempta, however, there is no apparent plied Commuinist sabotage
under way throughout the world as yet,,
(2) The French (ezreral Staff is cancelling its autuen
maneuvers as the result of a report that there will be Communist disorders
of appreciable siso in Francs between October and December. Eighty
Communist deputies of the French National Assembly have. recently requested
passports and some of them have reportedly also obtained Czech visas.
170 of the total of 181 Communist and fellowotravelling deputies in France
now hold valid passports, although only a few have departed France,, (French
passports are valid for two years and are renewable.) All Communist Party
leaders in France have received instructions to be back at their posts by
15 Septembaro
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(3) A vwTD official re ently stated in Finland that there
is to be a world, ddo boycott of U. S o shiPPLg on 6'6 00tobor0
(4) A recent report that the U.S.S.R. is withdrawing its
funds from U. Be banks is in error. There have been no funds have been
withdrawals of Soviet fluids in the U. S., although these
gradually reduced over the post several years. A further report that
Soviet Maids in Europe are being transferred to Switserland is under in-
vestigeation.
c? In addition to the reports cited above, there have been some
other reports during recent months suggesting that various Soviet prepara-
tions were to be completed by the aut;sml of 19600 In Ger ? in addition
to the airfield construction prograam, there have been reports that ex-
tensive oom