THE SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM (INFORMATION AS OF 1200 EST) 11 SEPT 1963

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00429A001400060001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 23, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 11, 1963
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
THE SITUATION IN
SOUTH VIETNAM
(Information as of 1200 EST)
JCS, DOS review completed with no
further redactions. 11 Sept 1963
PREPARED FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.
FURTHER DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION
CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT AUTHORIZED.
LLEGIB
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11 September 1963
THE SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM
(Information as of 1200 EDT)
SUMMARY
An assessment by Ambassador Lodge concludes that
the Diem regime is going under, and that the US should
take speedy action to dissociate itself and use what-
ever sanctions are available to bring about Diem's
replacement without affecting the war effort.
The US Country Team in Saigon, however, was unable
to agree on a unified assessment of the situation.
Our Station Chief and a MACV representative dissented
on grounds: that the summary of the prevailing situa-
tion was overgeneralized. General Weede feels the
existing situation still permits progress in the war,
and the Station Chief feels direct action aimed at
the regime will cast the US in the role of a colonial
power.
A senior CIA official visitng Saigon feels that
in view of the overcharged atmoshpere in Saigon it
would be best to restore a normal relationship with
the regime, to buy time for whatever actions may be
found necessary in more dispassionate appraisal.
The regime.'is compiling detailed information on
its opposition, and is warning military officers
against any more contact than necessary with US
officers.
The English-language Times of Vietnam today
charged "certain official circles" n. Was ington with
planning an anti-Diem "maquis" in Central Vietnam.
Madame Nhu may continue from Belgrade to.Rome
in an attempt to see the Pope. Archbishop Thuc,
having failed to gain an audience, has already left
Rome en route to the US.
Security forces in Saigon appear to have checked
student agitation, at least temporarily.
Viet Cong activity has stepped up in the delta,
but it is too early to attach any special significance
or establish a pattern.
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11 September 1963
1. ASSESSMENTS
1. Ambassador Lodge estimates that the situation
is worsening daily, an that the Diem "ship of state
is slowly sinking." He feels that the time has come
for the US to dissociate itself from the regime and
to use what sanctions we have to bring about its fall
and installation of a successor. He believes that
the disaffection evident in the cities cannot help
but spread widely through the military and affect
the war effort.
The ambassador feels that aid to the Diem
regime should be suspended, and recommends that Wash-
ington should decide the best procedure for doing
this without impeding the war effort. He recommends
that US dependents be evacuated, and that a quiet
program be undertaken to keep the Vietnamese Army
supplied.
Lodge feels speedy US action is essential
because the situation may rapidly get out of hand
to the extent that only the Communists would be in
a position to act.
2. A Countr Team meeting on 10 September was
unable to come up with a unified assessment of the
situation for transmission to Washington. The Station
Chief and Maj. Gen. Weede (MACV) were in minority
dissent against what they felt was a dangerous tend-
ency for generalized indictments of the regime's
weaknesses and failings.
The Station Chief points out that a large
part. of the US civilian mission in Saigon is
strongly and emotionally opposed to the regime--as
are US press representatives there--while most of
the US military in Vietnam feel we can still make
progress in the war as things are.
The Station Chief argues that if the US is
forced to show its hand in action aimed at the Diem
regime, we risk assuming the appearance of a colonial
power, as did France, with resultant major advantages
to the enemy.
3. A Senior CIA Headquarters officer now in
Saigon takes note o e emotional atmosp ere in Saigon
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and advises against hasty action. He recommends. bring-
ing about a modus vivendi with the Diem regime, in
order to buy time for establishing a solid capa-
bility in case appraisal in a more dispassionate
climate of opinion concludes that overthrow of the
regime is essential.
He feels that any hasty or inconclusive
measures against the Diem regime at present would
only further divide South Vietnam, diffusing the war
effort and making the country increasingly vulnerable
to Communist machinations.
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II. THE REGIME
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Saigon now is also asking
provincial authorities for statistics on students
who have violated the law.
2. The Diem regime continues on guard against
foreign influence among the Vietnamese military.
The Vietnamese Joint general Staff has sent notices
to all senior military officers warning'of possible
approaches from foreign agents, and directing that
any such approaches be reported. Complying officers
I
orders have been given to air force officers to have
as little contact as possible with American military
advisers.. US field reports indicate general reserve
toward Americans on the part of Vietnamese officers
in all branches since the crisis.
3. Madame Nhu, while in Beirut on 10-11 Sep-
tember, remained incommunicado in her hotel room.
The'Italian Foreign. Ministry says that according to
the Italian ambassador in Saigon, Madame Nhu may
come to Rome to see the Pope after attending the
IPU meeting in'Belgrade. Ambassador Reinhardt is
trying to contact appropriate Vatican officials
to seek Vatican information and views on the Viet-
namese problem.
e ome today e a es w ou v g
for e n
had an audience with the Pope.
4. Security forces in Saigon appear to have
student demonstrations under control, at least for
the moment. The number of students still under de-
tention is not known, but most of those arrested
probably have been released to the custody of their
Archbisho Thuc
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parents. Ambassador Lodge comments that the exag-
gerated rumors circulating in Saigon--to the ef-
fect that students are being beaten and tortured--
are indicative of the public's readiness to think
the worst of the government and police.
Government charges of Communist provocation
behind the student unrest remain unsubstantiated,
although the student movement has been a prime Com-
munist target, and there has undoubtedly been some
infiltration.
The US consul in Hud reports some student
agitation in the northern city as of 10 September,
but apparently no arrests as yet.
5. The English-language Times of Vietnam charged
today that anti-Diem exile leader Nguyen Ton Hoan in
Washington is working with "certain American official
circles" on plans to overthrow Diem. The Times says
the plans call for establishing a guerrilla force
composed largely of military deserters in Central
Vietnam to oppose the regime.
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III. OPPOSITION
1. Diem's chief Buddhist critic,Tri Quang, now
in asylum in the US Embassy, told US officials today
that he had made up his mind well before the 8 May in-
cident in Hue to carry out an anti-Diem campaign. Tri
Quang said he had been looking for an opportunity to
launch his campaign and had found it in government re-
strictions against flying the Buddhist flag, the im-
mediate cause of the Hue incident.
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IV. MILITARY SITUATION
1. Viet Cong activity in the IV Corps area south
of Saigon has picked up in the past few days, but it
is not yet possible to attach any special significance.
There have been at least three major engagements be-
tween ARVN forces and Viet Cong regulars since Monday.
On 9 September government forces using armored
carriers successfully attacked a Viet Cong concentra-
tion southeast of Saigon. Yesterday two district capi-
tals near the tip of Ca Mau Peninsula were overrun by
two Viet Cong units, reportedly of battalion size. Of-
ficial reporting is lacking on the casualties involved,
but government reinforcements including marine and air-
borne elements have regained the towns.
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