THE SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM (INFORMATION AS OF 1300 EDT) 17 SEPT 1963

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00429A001400060006-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 5, 2004
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: September 17, 1963
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
:Ae~nWMLPL--l
THE SITUATION IN
SOUTH VIETNAM
(Information as of 1300 EDT)
17 Sept 1963
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17 September 1963
THE SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM
(Information as of 1300 EDT)
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L._ Troops,are somewhat less in evidence in Saigon,
and the majority of the arrested Buddhists have prob-
ably been released from custody.
prisoners suspected of active
plotting or of contacts with the Viet Cong will be
kept in jail, and that the regime will keep substan-
tial security forces in and near Saigon to maintain
order and guard against coup attempts.
There are continuing reports that Nhu may ask
for the withdrawal of US advisers and seek an ac-
commodation with Hanoi. 25X1
Ito tell him that key gen-
erals will not tolerate such a deal. He says the
generals have asked for several cabinet posts.
25X1 and Diem more sensitive to outside opinion, more
cognizant of their dependence-on the military, and
aware that they can neither revert fully to the status
quo ante nor rely on pure repression to deal with
the domestic unrest.
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the crisis has probably made Nhu
Madame Nhu has told the press in Belgrade that
she will reach New York about 1 October, and does
not expect to confer with any high officials in
Washington. Her intervening travel plans are un-
clear, and the length of her stay in the US depends
on a cross-country speaking tour and her "whim."
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I. ASSESSMENTS
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1.
substantial security forces will be maintained in
Saigon despite'the lifting of martial law, to guard
against unrest or possible coup attempts.
most of the Buddhists
arrested in recent weeks now. have been released,
but that prisoners suspected of coup plotting or
of connections with the Viet Cong will be kept
in custody.
Diem and
Nhu probably are not as insensitive to US and world
opinion as some observers thinkj prob-
ably are aware that they can neither revert to the
situation as it existed before the Buddhist disorders,
nor cope with internal dissatisfaction by pure re-
pression. the two leaders are aware
of their increased dependence on the military,
while military leaders at the same time are becoming
aware of their ability to influence the regime.
officials in Saigon
now consider it virtually impossible that Diem and
Nhu can be separated, or that Madame Nhu can be
silenced for any period of time.
2. has told 25X1
Ambassador Lodge that he considers US withdrawal from
South Vietnam "unthinkable," and that even the North
Vietnamese would be ready to settle for less.
feels that if Hanoi can ob-
tain a trade agreement assuring it an adequate rice
supply from South Vietnam, the DRV would agree to
call off the guerrilla war in exchange for assurances
that it would not be attacked by the US. (Comment:
North Vietnam's food situation is not so desperate
that its leaders would settle for continued US
presence. Such negotiations, furthermore, would
provide some delicate moments for the North Viet-
namese, who maintain publicly that they have no
control over the Viet Cong guerrillas.)
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II. THE REGIME
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1. Troops remain in evidence in key Saigon
population centers such as schools and markets, but
have been withdrawn from some government building
and utilities.
other airborne battalions in the vicinity has been
reduced from 100% to 50%, but they remain in stand-
by reserve near Saigon.
that one of the two airborne battalions on duty
in Saigon has been pulled out. The alert for two
while general officers still are acting w thin
legality," they are increasingly concerned over
evidence that Nhu may be negotiating for an accommo-
dation with North Vietnam, Nhu has told
some general officers that
Polish Commissioner Manelli has presented a pro-
posal for trade between the two Vietnams which is
being studied.
the generals have asked
Diem for several cabinet posts and were told they
would be answered after'.the 27 September election.
if the generals are turned. down
they will press in "other directions," and, will
not go along with Nhu on any program for neutraliza-
tion or accommodation with Hanoi.
Istudents and faculty at
the ARVN artillery school nearby are "very dis-
turbed," claiming that the regime has lost touch
with the people. Personnel at the school are re-
ported to be listening to VOA and BBC as the only
available sources of valid news about South Vietnam.
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IV. MILITARY SITUATION
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1. Viet Cong, apparently in battalion strength
of about 400 men, last night attacked four hamlets
in the delta, according to press reports. The ham-
lets called in air support for attacks on guerrilla
assembly points and withstood the assault, although
two were reported still under attack at daybreak.
Press reports said an estimated 100 Viet Cong had
been killed, but did not indicate how the defenders
could have made a body count.
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1. Commenting on Pravda's 15 September edito-
rial on South Vietnam, the mbassy in Moscow notes
that there are some "interesting omissions" in com-
parison with earlier Soviet pronouncements concern-
ing a peaceful solution in Vietnam. Neither Moscow's
statement last May nor the current Pravda article
called for immediate withdrawal of 'forces, but
the Pravda piece omits earlier references to pro-
vision- n the 1954 Geneva agreements for unification
of Vietnam through general elections, and to a pos-
sible neutral zone in Southeast Asia including South
Vietnam.
The embassy believes Moscow may wish to
dissuade Hanoi, Peiping, or the Viet Cong's Libera-
tion Front from steps which might upset what the
USSR probably regards as a favorably developing
situation. Moscow may also have little taste at
present for policies or moves which could increase
Chinese Communist influence in the area.
2. South Vietnam's disaffected Foreign Minis-
ter Vu Van Mau left India for Switzerland on 15
September. He and his family have been given US
visas.
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