NEPAL: TURMOIL IN THE HIMALAYAS (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00942A001100110001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 21, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 1, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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Assessment ORCON
Center
Nepal:
Turmoil in the Himalayas (u)
Research for this report was completed
on 20 June 1979.
The author of this paper is
Near East and South Asia Division, Office of Political
Analysis. Comments and c ueries are welcome and
should be directed to (u)
This paper has been coordinated with the National
Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asia,
the Directorate of Operations, and the Office of
Central Reference. Additional informal review was
received from the Office of Scientific Intelligence and
the Department of State. (u)
25X1A
Secret
PA 79-10258
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NOCONTRACT (NC)
PROPIN (PP)
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ORCON (OC)
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NOFORN-NOCONTR. CT-
ORCON
Nepal:
Turmoil in the Himalayas u)
25X6
Key Judgments The violence that has shaken the Hindu Kingdom of Nepal for the last two
months is an explosive manifestation of the social, political, and economic
frustrations that have been accumulating for nearly two decades. Tttes-
frustrations, coupled with an apparent shift in government policy in late
1978 and early 1979 toward greater repression of Nepal's banned political
parties, gave impetus to the efforts of some students and politicians to
coordinate the country's disparate political forces into one mass moven;ent.
The opposition is composed of a variety of political factions that only rarely
cooperate. It has no single leader, but B. P. Koirala, the aging and ailirg
leader of the banned Nepali Congress Party, has been a central figure i 1 the
recent unrest. Koirala is a political moderate who has long advocated a
reconciliation that would retain the monarchy but transfer the King's
powers, by stages, to a democratically elected government. Other, mor
radical factions of the opposition seek to end the monarchy. (c)
Young King Birendra, hoping to restore stability and perhaps give the
impression that the monarchy is above politics and government, has
announced several major concessions to his opponents. Hardliners in the
palace and government, whose influence would be lessened by any chance in
the present government system, see Birendra's concessions to the demonstra-
tors as a sign of weakness. If sufficiently threatened, they could attemrt--
perhaps with the assistance of conservative army officers-a palace coup to
install Birendra's younger brother, Prince
Gyanendra. Face wi ac ua or po entia threats to his position from
opponents within and without the palace, Birendra must steer a difficu t
course between compromise and firmness. His most dangerous tack.
however, would be one that portrayed indecisiveness. (s)
Continued instability in Nepal will cause concern in Nepal's giant
neighbors, but the situation would have serious international ramificatirms
only if India and China intervened. (s)
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ORCON
Key Judgments
The Setting
The King and the Palace Guard
The Politicians and the Parties
Recent Events
The Outcome
Iran in Miniature?
The Outlook
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NOFORN-NOCONTRACY-
ORCON
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