ADDRESS GIVEN BY MR. J.C.A. FAURE AT THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SEED CRUSHERS CONGRESS COPENHAGEN, JUNE 1952

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 21, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 1, 1952
• Content Type: SPEECH

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ADDRESS
Mr. J. C. A. FAURE
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SEED CRUSHERS
CONGRESS
DOPE THAGEN, JUNE 1952
ESz 8,a, ~u
RETURN TO CIA
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ADDRESS GIVEN BY MR. J. C. A. FAURE AT THE
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SEED CRUSHERS
CONGRESS, COPENHAGEN, CPYRGHT
JUNE. 1952
MR. CHAIRMAN, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,
To-day I propose to follow very closely the order I adopted at Brighton in reviewing events of the
past year.
Last June we considered together the supply position in the world and the prospects for 1951.
We also examined the reasons for the phenomenal rise in prices which started the previous year.
Since last June we have had a very heavy fall in values and I propose now to examine the reasons
for this decline. Actually the reasons are so obvious to us all that I need hardly repeat them. They are,
of course, increased world supplies and over-bought positions in nearly all consuming countries. The
purpose of this address however, is to show you figures and to see what we can learn from them.
WORLD PRODUCTION.
In my concluding paragraph last year I said " If these optimistic hopes of crops in the United States
are realised and if the olive oil production should be restored to more normal size, then I think we shall
have gone a long way in overcoming the post-war shortage of oils and fats."
These optimistic hopes were realised beyond all expectation and I say, without hesitation, that world
scarcity of oils and fats is a thing of the past. Admittedly, total world production is not fully back to
the pre-war per capita level, and we have not entirely overtaken the increase in world population, though
very nearly so. Yet, taking into account the large production of synthetic detergents, and allowing for a
moderate reduction in purchasing power due to currency difficulties, the figures will show that we are
faced this year with a substantial surplus, not only in the U.S.A., but also in Europe.
I should point out at this stage, as I did once before, that we can only look at the world position
in general terms. Any calculation of world production for instance must be very approximate and is
useful more as a basis of comparison from year to year than as an exact assessment. The figure I take is
based on a detailed consideration of production in each country and checked with end consumption
levels wherever possible. It is an attempt to show " visible " production, that is to say deductions have
been made in the case of oilseed crops such as groundnuts which are directly consumed as food as well as
deductions for sowing.
1951.
First, we should look at the estimates that I made in 1951. I forecast total. world production at
23,170,000 tons ; this turned out to be 23,410,000 tons. Following my previous custom I again kept to
the conservative side. The later estimates are therefore nearly 240,000 tons more than I calculated.
Following the very large increase in exports in 1950, 1 did not allow for a further rise in 1951 and
considered that a maintenance of the high level of 5,379,000 tons in 1950 (since adjusted upwards to
5,445,000 tons) was all that could be reasonably expected. I was over cautious-1951 exports amounted
to 5,613,000 tons which was 238,000 tons more than I had allowed for and 168,000 tons greater than in
1950. This increase on 1950 was accounted for by larger shipments of soya beans and soya bean oil,
both from the U.S.A. and China, also by copra and coconut oil, lard, whale oil and sperm oil. There
were reductions in groundnuts, olive oil, palm oil and palm kernels. Copra and coconut oil alone showed
an increase of 226,000 tons as oil.
Before turning our attention to 1952 prospects, I think it will be useful to examine in greater detail
the imports into Europe during 1951, and try to see if the figures confirm the general belief that the heavy
buying early in 1951 left most countries with surpluses that were not needed for immediate consumption.
Please refer to Table A.
A year ago at Brighton I indicated that if European consumption levels in 1951 were at the 1950
level there would still be an additional 300,000 tons from world export supplies available to Europe for
stock or increased consumption. T able A shows that excluding the three olive oil countries, Spain,
Portugal and Greece, stock additions amounted to 202,000 tons whilst there was a rise in consumption,
largely accounted for by Germany, U.K. and France.
I believe that most European buyers bought less than their current consumption requirements during
the second half of 1951 and in this way reduced their stocks. Stocks were probably a good deal higher
in the middle of 1951 than at the end of the year, but it is not practicable to show mid-year fires.
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CPYRGHT
Now let us look at 1952. World production is estimated at about 24,300,000 tons. This may again
prove to be conservative. It is 920,000 tons greater than in 1951. Production this year should give a
per capita supply of 21.9 lb. per annum. This is still ?4 lb. below pre-war. World production would
need to be 500,000 tons greater to restore the pre-war per capita supply. Yet if we take into account that
stocks in Europe have increased between 1st January, 1950 and 31st December, 1951, by 600,000 tons,
that stocks in the United States are also at a high level and further, that synthetic detergents have probably
replaced oils and fats to the tune of about 400,000 tons, then I think we can conclude that total supplies
available this year are actually in excess of the pre-war per capita.
I estimate world exports at 5,736,000 tons or 123,000 tons larger than in 1951. The comparatively
small increase in exports when related to the 920,000 tons increase in production is explained by the very
large olive oil crop of 1951, which is mainly consumed within the producing countries themselves. In
estimating world exports this year I was faced with a difficulty I had not previously encountered. Until
this year we have had a shortage in world oils and fats ; consequently any supplies that became available
were automatically assumed to become exports. An exception was made in the case of dollar oils and
fats. Here the export surplus was based realistically on supplies and ability to buy from dollar areas.
In 1952 we are faced with a surplus and it can no longer be assumed that whatever becomes available
will be automatically exported.
For the purpose of this study I have taken the total estimated supplies available as exports. I must
ask you, therefore, to treat these as supplies available, rather than actual exports, Let us now examine
the exports. We will take the United States first.
Last year I mentioned that I expected the net export balance to be the same as in 1950, namely,
350,000 tons. Total exports of primary oils and fats were 1,024,000 tons, to which must be added 30,000
tons secondary products such as fatty acids and cooking fats. Retained imports totalled 490,000 tons,
leaving a netexport balance of 564,000 tons. This was 214,000 more than I had forecast. In 1952 the
United States should have at least the same surplus available for export as in 1951. In arriving at the
world export figure of 5,736,000 tons, I have assumed a contribution from the U.S.A. similar to that of
last year. I calculate that in 1952 the United States will have available for export a total of 1,040,000
tons and that America will import 480,000 tons, making a net exportable balance of 560,000 tons.
Turning to exports from other parts of the world we find that the estimates for 1952 show increases
over last year among others for groundnuts, olive oil, palm oil, fish oil and whale oil. The increases in
the aggregate amount to 426,000 tons. There are reductions amounting to 303,000 tons in the estimates
for butter, copra, linseed, and a few other vegetable oils. After two successive crop failures the current
Nigerian groundnut crop is estimated at 395,000 tons, more than three times the previous crop. However,
rolling stock only suffices for transporting 280,000 tons to the ports. Nigerian shipments of groundnuts
this year will, therefore, be limited to this quantity. It is good to know that there will be a carryover into
1953 of 115,000 tons of groundnuts from the present crop. Shipments of soya beans from Manchuria
so far this year have not been as large as they were at this time last year, but there are indications that
ships continue to be chartered for soya beans and other cereals, and it is too early to assume that total
exports from the Far East will be much below those of last year. Copra is likely to show a decline on
last year's high total of 1,300,000 tons as oil. Indonesian estimates are down : the Philippines are also
likely to make smaller shipments due mainly to poor demand from the United States and the dollar
shortage in Europe. Palm oil exports are expected to show an increase of nearly 90,000 tons. The
increase is to a very large extent due to improved conditions in Sumatra. Linseed shows the heaviest
decline of 164,000 tons below last year.
As will be remembered, the Argentine took full advantage of last year's rise to unload her accumulated
supplies of oils on to Europe. This applies to both linseed oil and sunflower oil. Her sunflower crop
which at one time looked very promising is now estimated at only 850,000 tons, but the greater part will
be needed for domestic consumption. The linseed crop, estimated at 300,000 tons, is probably the
lowest on record, and is about one-sixth of the average pre-war crop. With this small production and
the low prices compared with last year, the Argentine position is not very enviable.
Before leaving the exports, I suggest that we examine the European situation in more detail on the
same lines as we did for 1951, and l would refer you to Table B. Here _I have shown domestic production
in European countries, plus net imports, and also estimated actual consumption. It will be seen that
for the 16 Western European countries the annarent total soh v avnilah1e th;c 3;c fQX4 ac+ "
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tons, against estimated imate actual consumption of tons. This indicates that at the end
of this year there should be a further addition to stocks of 309,000 tons. This addition is practically all
the result of record domestic olive oil crops. At the bottom of Table B you will see a further interesting
statement. In this I have taken the world's exports and deducted the estimated requirements of importing
countries other than Europe. This leaves a balance available for shipment to Europe of 4,180,000 tons.
Table B gives the estimated import requirements as 3,650,000 tons. You will see that there is an estimated
surplus of 530,000 tons for Europe over and above Europe's requirements. This is all the more
remarkable, as we have seen from Table B that the estimated import requirements allow for an increase
to stocks of 309,000 tons. These estimates show that the apparent surplus over European real con-
sumption in 1952 may be 839,000 tons. The surplus of 530,000 tons includes the net exportable balance
from the U.S.A. It would seem in the circumstances that Europe does not strictly need to import oils
and fats from the U.S.A. in 1952.
I do not think Table C needs any comment except to say that it forms the foundation of the
estimated actual consumption in Tables A and B.
Tables E, F and G give details of the world's exports by commodities, areas, groups of commodities
and of the individual commodities and their origins. These individual estimates are of necessity mainly
guess work, but in the past the aggregates have not been too far out.
I do not propose in this address to deal in detail with the situation in the United States as Mr. Daniels
of the Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, who is much better qualified, is giving us a talk on his country.
However, as a world review of oils and fats would be incomplete without a brief reference to America,
I have again provided in Tables H and I, details of production estimates of all oils and fats in the U.S.A.,
both for calendar and crop years.
It is well known that the U.S.A. production in recent years has been greatly in excess of her domestic
requirements. Present indications are that at least for the next 18 months the United States will continue
to have substantial surpluses available for export. I would particularly draw your attention to the
present high stock levels shown in Table I.
Mr. Chairman, my review has come to an end and I will not weary you any longer with statistics
and figures but before closing may I see if it is possible to draw any conclusions : no doubt everyone of
us will be able to draw his own, but you may be interested to hear my personal views.
In the first place I should point out that the enormous increase in world production since the war
is by no means equally distributed over the wide range of commodities, neither over all areas. The
United States are producing large quantities of liquid vegetable oils, of which Europe is still short, but
on account of the dollar shortage this gap cannot be filled from the U.S.A. As is known, Europe is still
short of groundnuts and we see this reflected in the price to-day. There is, furthermore, a serious shortage
outside the U.S.A. of linseed, and the drying oil industries have been obliged to turn to substitutes such as
soya oil and fish oil, to name but two of the more important. I am told that these are quite satisfactory
but there remains a very definite preference for linseed oil. If we succeed therefore in finding a range
within which prices of sterling oils and fats may reasonably be expected to fluctuate within the next
12 to 18 months, then these groups that I have just mentioned may remain outside that range. I believe
for instance that U.S. cotton oil and soya bean oil, which are to-day less than double the pre-war price,
may keep below the sterling range that I am going to suggest.
One thing seems to stand out clearly and that is with total world supplies being equal to, or in excess
of, effective world demand, there can be no excuse for a return to a range of five to eight times pre-war
levels when expressed in sterling. If it were not for the reduced purchasing power of the pound, prices
should revert to pre-war levels.
I have been trying to find some index which expresses accurately the international purchasing value
of the pound in relation to pre-war, but I found it impossible in practice. Last year I took the cost of
living index in the United Kingdom which showed a comparison of about two to one, that is #2 last year
equalled #1 pre-war-I do not think this represents truly and accurately the international purchasing
power. This cost of living index includes, wages, services, etc., which are affected by subsidies and relates
mainly to internal conditions in the United Kingdom.
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I have, therefore, discarded the two charts that I presented last year but I am now showing another
which is based on the " Statist " Wholesale Price Index. This is made up of 45 different raw materials
in the United Kingdom and includes :-
Vegetable foods (wheat, barley, maize, etc.).
Animal foods (beef, mutton, pork, butter, etc.).
Sugar, tea, coffee.
Minerals (iron, copper, tin, lead, coal).
Textiles (cotton, wool, jute, etc.).
Sundry materials (hides, leather, tallow, palm, olive and linseed oils, petroleum, soda, nitrate,
timber, etc.).
Although this index also does not entirely satisfy me for several reasons which I will explain I have
decided to show this chart in my address to-day, as I think it may help us in arriving at reasonable prices
for oils and fats that we may expect for the next 12 to 18 months. The two principal reasons why I feel
this " Statist " Index does not accurately reflect the special conditions of the oil and fat markets are first,
that there are several commodities in the list that are still in severe short supply, and second, that several
of the commodities are subject to long-term bulk contracts, and these prices in certain instances do not
represent current market values.
The cost of living index in the United Kingdom, which gives the two to one ratio, does not represent
oils and fats world c.i.f. values, as the basis of this index is too low for the reasons I have explained.
On the other hand, I believe that the " Statist " Wholesale Price Index, which you will see from the chart
is about four times pre-war, appears too high. It would follow that for oils and fats we could look for a
range somewhere between the two indexes. It is my personal view that a reasonable range of prices
to look for, now that scarcity is behind us, and provided there areno serious political disturbances, is
between three and four times the pre-war level. In determining the pre-war level we should not take the
" lows " of 1932, which were exceptional, nor the " highs " of 1937 which reflected U.S. crop failures.
A fair basis would be the average five year period, 1934/1938.
Mr. Chairman, I need hardly mention that I am not suggesting that prices in future must remain
within this range. There may be very good reasons for prices temporarily dropping below or rising above
this range. But if they do, the reasons will need to be examined very closely.
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TABLE "A"
ESTIMATED TOTAL EUROPEAN OIL AND FAT SUPPLIES IN 195.1
In Terms of Oil or Fat Equivalent
Metric Tons (000)s
Difference
between
Indigenous
Retained
Exports
Net
Apparent
App.
Estimated
Production
Imports
Domestic
Imports
Supply
Supply and
Actual
Materials
Available
Actual
Consump-
Consump-
tion
tion
1. U.K.... ... ... ...
99
1,587
4
1,583
1,682
+ 62
1,620
2. Eire ... ... ... ...
51
22
neg.
22 .
73
+ 1
72
3. Netherlands ... ...
154
*290
60
230
384
+ 59
325
4. France ... ... ...
417
507
5
502
919
+ 69
850
5. Belgium ... ... ...
92
150
neg.
150
242
- 3
245
6. Switzerland... ... ...
34
81
neg.
81
115
+ 5
110
7. Denmark ... ... ...
176
75
131
- 56
120
- 10
130
8. Norway ... ... ...
95
t90
(80)
10
105
+ 5
100
9. Finland ... ... ...
56
20
neg.
20
76
+ 1
75
10. Sweden ... ... ...
178
84
70
14
192
- 13
205
11. Germany (Western) ...
493
688
neg.
688
1,181
- 19
1,200
12. Austria ... ... ...
57
80
neg.
80
1.37
-I- 17
120
13. Italy ... ... ... ...
383
222
7
215
598
-+- 28
570
ToTAL-13 COUNTRIES ...
2,285
3,896
357
3,539
5,824
+202
5,622
14. Greece ... ... ...
58
11
2
9
67
- 43
110
15. Spain ... ... ...
235
74
31
43
278
- 22
300
16. Portugal ... ... ...
72
30
7
23
95
- 15
110
GRAND TOTAL-
16 COUNTRIES
2,650
4,011
397
3,614
6,264
+122
6,142
* Netherlands : Includes domestic production of Whale oil (17).
t Norway : 45 recorded plus 45 Whale oil for domestic usage.
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CPYRGHT
FORECAST OF EUROPEAN OIL AND FAT SUPPLIES* IN 1952
In Terms of Oil or Fat Equivalent
Metric Tons (000)s
Difference
between
Indigenous
Retained
Exports
Net
Apparant
App.
Forecast
Production
Imports
Domestic
Imports
Supply
Supply and
of Actual
Materials
Available
Actual
Consump-
Consump-
tion
tion
1. U.K.... ... ... ...
110
1,465
5
1,460
1,570
+ 20
1,550
2. Eire ... ... ... ...
54
20
neg.
20
74
- 1
75
3. Netherlands... ... ...
159
180
50
130
289
- 41
330
4. France ... ... ...
427
450
5
445
872
+ 2
870
5. Belgium ... ... ...
95
160
neg.
160
255
-
255
6. Switzerland ... ... ...
34
70
neg.
70
104
- 6
110
7. Denmark ... ... ...
175
90
130
-40
135
-
135
8. Norway ... ... ...
116
90
85
5
121
+ 16
105
9. Finland ... ... ...
60
15
neg.
15
75
-
75
10. Sweden ... ... ...
185
90
55
35
220
+ 10
210
11. Germany (Western) ...
518
750
neg.
750
1,268
- 2
1,270
12. Austria ... ... ...
60
60
neg.
60
120
-
120
13. Italy ... ... ...
520
165
15
150
670
+ 70
600
T0TAL-13 COUNTRIES ...
2,513
3,605
345
3,260
5,773
+ 68
5,705
14. Greece ... ... ...
170
-
5
- 5
165
+ 40
125
15. Spain
760
15
95
- 80
680
+180
500
16. Portugal ... ... ...
126
30
10
20
146
+ 21
125
GRAND TOTAL-
16 COUNTRIES
3,569
3,650
455
3,195
6,764
+309
6,455
1952 WORLD EXPORT SUPPLIES IN RELATION TO EUROPEAN IMPORT REQUIREMENTS
Metric Tons (000)s
Forecast of total world exportable supply ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 5,740
? requirements of importing countries other than above European countries ... ... 1,560
Balance available to above European countries ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 4,180
Estimated European import requirements for actual consumption ... ... ... ... ... 3,650
Balance available ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 530
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EUROPE : OILS AND FATS
CPYR(3iiTAILED ANALYSIS OF CONSUMPTION FORECASTS AND PER CAPITA LEVELS 1951 AND 1952
YEAR 1951
YEAR 1952
Total
Per
Total
Per
Metric Tons
Capita
Population
Metric Tons
Capita
Population
(000)s
(lbs.)
(000,000)s
(000)s
(lbs.)
(000,000)s
1. U.K. ... ... ... ...
1,620
70.7
50.5
1,550
67.3
50.8
2. Eire... ... ... ... ...
72
53.7
3.0
75
55.1
3.0
3. Netherlands ... ... ...
325
69.8
10.3
330
69.9
10.4
4. France ... ... ... ...
850
44.4
42.2
870
45.1
42.5
5. Belgium ... ... ... ...
245
59.4
9.1
255
61-1
9.2
6. Switzerland ... ... ...
110
51-1
4.8
110
51-1
4.8
7. Denmark ... ... ... ...
130
66.5
4.3
135
68-3
4.3
8. Norway ... ... ... ...
100
66.9
3-3
105
69.6
3 ?3
9. Finland .... ... ... ...
75
40.7
4.1
75
40.5
4.1
10. Sweden ... ... ... ...
205
63-8
7.1
210
64.9
7.1
11. Germany (Western) ... ...
1,200
54.2
48.8
1,270
56.8
49.3
12. Austria ... ... ... ...
120
38.3
6.9
120
37.8
7.0
13. Italy ... ... ... ...
570
27.0
46.6
600
28-2
46.9
TOTAL-13 COUNTRIES ... ...
5,622
51 ?4
241.0
5,705
51-8
242.7
14. Greece ... ... ... ...
110
31-9
7 -6
125
35-9
7.7
15. Spain ... ... ... ...
300 1
23-3
28.5
500
38-4
28-7
16. Portugal ... ... ... ...
110
28-2
8.6
125
31-7
8-7
GRAND TOTAL-16 COUNTRIES
6,142
47.4
285.7
6,455
49 4
287 8
TABLE " D "
WORLD OIL AND FAT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS : SUMMARY OF SALIENT STATISTICS
Pre-War
1950
1951
1952
Forecast
World Supply
World Production-M. Tons (000)s ... ... ... ... ...
21,587
23,203
23,410
24,330
Population (millions) ... ... ... ... ... ...
2,130
2,400
2,425
2,450
per capita-lbs. ... ... ... ... ...
22.3
21-3
21-3
21-9
per capita deficit on pre-war-lbs. ... ... ... ...
Amount required to restore pre-war per capita-M. Tons (000)s...
-
-
1.0
1,120
1.0
1,170
0.4
500
Total World Exports
World Exports-M. Tons (000)s ... ... ... ... ...
5,829
5,445
5,613
5,736
of which-
` Hard ' Currency Areas-M. Tons (000)s ... ... ...
740
1,822
2,008
1,985
` Soft' ? ? ? ? ... ... ... ...
5,089
3,623
3,605
3,751
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TABLE " E "
CPYRGHT
WORLD EXPORTS OF PRIMARY OILS AND FATS
PRE-WAR
1951
(Average
1949
1950
PARTLY
1952
1934-38)
ESTIMATED
FORECAST
BY COMMODITIES
Copra and Coconut Oil ... ... ... ...
1,057
1,020
1;074
1,300
1,222
Palm Kernels ... ... ... ... ... ...
320
359
375
339
352
Palm Oil ... ... ... ... ... ...
447
492
496
446
535
Groundnuts ... ... ... ... ... ...
826
545
507
430
521
Soya Beans ... ... ... ... ... ...
432
283
267
425
420
Cottonseed ... ... ... ... ... ...
189
129
158
116
133
Linseed... ... ... ... ... ... ...
572
248
400
412
248
All other Vegetable Oils ... ... ... ...
523
334
594
490
609
Butter (fat content) ... ... ... ... ...
500
361
387
372
346
Lard ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
173
313
277
365
355
Tallow, etc. ... ... ... ... ... ...
162
292
367
309
320
Whale Oil (including Sperm) ... ...
507
446
428
484
510
Fish Oils (including Liver) ... ... ... ...
121
72
115
125
165
TOTAL ABOVE ... ... ... ... ...
5,829
4,894
5,445
5,613
5,736
U.S. retained imports above commodities ... ...
960
450
555
490
480
Quantity available to Europe and rest of World ...
4,869
4,444
4,890
5,123
5,256
BY PRODUCING AREAS
' Hard ' Currency Areas :-
United States of America ... ... ... ...
100
948
856
1,024
1,023
Other America (excluding Argentine and Uruguay)
133
210
160
135
145
Philippines ... ... ... ... ... ...
348
422
513
563
516
Portuguese Africa ... ... ... ... ...
62
94
100
89
94
Belgian Congo... ... ... ... ... ...
97
185
193
197
207
TOTAL ABOVE ... ... ... ... ...
740
1,859
1,822
2,008
1,985
Soft ' Currency Areas :-
Argentine and Uruguay ... ... ... ...
577
210
489
478
271
British West Africa ... ... ... ...
455
581
570
454
549
French West and Equatorial Africa... ... ...
298
237
247
228
260
Other Africa ... ... ... ... ... ...
212
126
201
114
142
India and Ceylon ... ... ... ... ...
589
209
250
287
305
Malaya ... ... ... ... ... ...
132
105
116
114
131
Indonesia ... ... ... ... ... ...
529
367
331
438
469
Australasia and British Oceania ... ... ...
369
337
328
332
311
China and Manchuria ... ... ... ...
742
89
183
190
199
Other Countries (incl. Europe) ... ... ...
679
328
480
486
604
Whale Oil (Antarctic and Arctic) ... ... ...
507
446
428
484
510
TOTAL ABOVE ... ... ... ... ...
5,089
3,035
3,623
3,605
3,751
GRAND TOTAL ._ ... ... ... ...
5,829
4,894
5,445
5,613
5,736
Sources : Pre-war to 1950 : Compiled from official statistics. 1951 Official statistics and Unilever estimates.
1952 Unilever estimates.
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
TABLE " F "
SUMMARY OF WORLD EXPORTS OF OILSEEDS, OILS & FATS
CPYRGHT Metric Tons (000)s (in Terms of Oil)
ACTUAL
PARTLY ESTIMATED
FORECAST
1934-38
1950
1951
1952
` Edible ' Type Oils
Cottonseed ... ... ... ...
189
158
116
133
Groundnut ... ... ... ...
826
507
430
521
Soya Bean ... ... ... ...
432
267
425
420
Sunflower ... ... ... ...
26
121
115
98
Sesame ... ... ... ... ...
69
29
22
26
Olive ... ... ... ... ...
136
134
68
155
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
1,678
1,216
1,176
1,353
` Palm ' Oils
Coconut ... ... ... ...
1,057
1,074
1,300
1,222
Palm Kernel ... ... ... ...
320
375
339
352
Palm Oil ... ...
447
496
446
535
Babassu... ... ... ... ...
12
19
21
21
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
1,836
1,964
2,106
2,130
Industrial Type Oils
Linseed ... ... ... ... ...
572
400
412
248
Rapeseed ... ... ... ...
51
45
59
70
Oiticica ... ... ... ... ...
4
10
10
10
.. ... ... ... ...
Tung
80
81
40
52
.
Castor ...
81
123
92
117
Other Vegetable Oils ... ... ...
64
32
63
60
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
852
691
676
557
Animal Fats
Butter (fat content) ... ... ...
500
387
372
346
Lard ... ... ... ... ...
173
277
365
355
Tallow, etc. ... ... ... ...
162
367
309
320
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
835
1,031
1,046
1,021
Marine Oils
Whale (including Sperm) ... ...
507
428
484
510
Fish (including Liver)... ... ...
121
115
125
165
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
628
543
609
675
GRAND TOTAL ... ... ...
5,829
5,445
5,613
5,736
Sources : 1934-38 Calculated from official statistics.
1950
1951 Official statistics and Unilever estimates.
1952 Unilever estimates.
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CjfMJ3,90o?~R000700280001-3
CPYRGHT
WORLD EXPORTS OF OILSEEDS, OILS & FATS
ANALYSIS BY COMMODITIES
Metric Tons (000)s
ACTUAL
PARTLY ESTIMATED
FORECAST
1934-38
1950
1951
1952
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Cottonseed & Cottonseed Oil
U.S.A. ... ... ... ...
-
-
10
64
6
29
10
40
Argentine ... ... ... ...
5
-
-
13
-
9
-
15
Brazil ... ... ... ... ...
79
18
-
2
-
10
-
5
Anglo-Egyptian Sudan ... ...
85
-
98
3
119
5
80
5
Egypt ... ... ... ... ...
358
10
-
5
-
1
-
-
Kenya & Uganda ... ... ...
81
-
50
1
33
-
50
-
Portuguese Africa ... ... ...
1
-
35
-
30
-
30
-
Other Africa ... ... ... ...
25
-
26
2
26
2
40
2
Turkey ... ... ... ...
3
-
21
-
26
1 -
30
-
China & Manchuria ... ... ...
82
10
-
1
-
3
-
5
Pakistan ... ... ... ...
-
-
134
-
75
-
100
-
Other Countries ... ... ...
68
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
787
47
374
91
315
59
340
72
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
1
89
1
58
1
16
1
33
Groundnuts (Decort.) & Groundnut Oil
U.S.A.... ... ... ... ...
--
-
24
18
23
29
20
15
Argentine ... ... ... ...
3
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil ... ... ... ...
5
Mexico ... ... ... ...
-
-
10
-
5
-
-
-
Nigeria ... ... ... ...
234
-
316
4
144
4
280
5
Other British W. Africa ... ...
44
-
50
-
45
-
50
French Equatorial & W. Africa ...
453 1
2
210
71
200
55
240
75
Portuguese Africa .. ... ...
48
-
35
1
30
2
35
2
Anglo-Egyptian Sudan ... ...
4
4
-
11
-
15
-
Belgian Congo ... ... ...
5
-
I.
5
-
7
-
10
Other Africa ... ... ...
16
-
1
5
5
5
5
5
China & Manchuria... ... ...
182
32
77
16
70
20
70
20
India ... ... ... ...
846
7
98
31
37
55
40
60
Indonesia ... ... ... ...
18
7
24
-
15
5
15
5
Other Countries
-
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
TOTAL
1,853
48
851
151
591
182
771
197
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
826
5
07
4
30
5
21
Soya Beans & Soya Bean Oil ...
U.S.A.... ... ... ... ...
21
- 3
520
136
670
221
670
220
China & Manchuria... ... ...
2,078
77
256
3
550
5
500
10
Korea ... ... ... ... ...
100
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil ... ... ... ... ...
-
-
21
-
20
-
15
Other Countries ... ... ...
34
-
5
5
-
5
-
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
2,233
74
802
139
1,245
226
1,190
1
230
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
43
2
26
7
42
5
42
0
10
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999Vfi&,CWeqt8~o-00/4n 3ROO0700280001-3
CPYRGHYORLD EXPORTS OF OILSEEDS, OILS & FATS-ANALYSIS BY COMMODITIES
Matrir Tnnc 4
ACTUAL
PARTLY ESTIMATED
FORECAST
1934-38
1950
1951
1952
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Sunflower Seed & Sunflower Oil
Argentine ... ... ... ...
4
-
-
103
-
85
-
65
Tanganyika ... ... ... ...
-
-
9
-
7
-
5
-
Union of South Africa ... ...
-
-
-
5
5
3
-
-
Turkey ... ... ... ...
-
-
11
-
22
-
60
-
Eastern Europe ... ... ...
69
7
-
6
-
5
-
5
Other Countries ... ... ...
1
5
5
2
-
15
-
15
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
74
12
25
116
34
108
65
85
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
26
1
21
1
15
98
Sesame Seed & Sesame Seed Oil
Nicaragua ... ... ... ...
--
-
7
-
5
-
5
-
El Salvador ... ... ... ...
-
-
7
-
3
-
5
Nigeria ... ... ... ...
13
-
15
-
i l
-
15
-
Other Africa... ... ... ...
29
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
China & Manchuria ... ...
84
-
16
-
10
-
10
-
Turkey ... ... ... ...
2
-
2
-
2
-
5
-
Other Countries ... ... ...
12
2
3
-
5
-
5
-
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
140
2
60
-
46
-
55
-
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
69
29
22
26
Olive Oil (Edible & Inedible)
Greece ... ... ... ...
11
1
2
5
Italy ... ... ... ... ...
1
-
Portugal ... ... ... ...
1
5
4
5
Spain... ... ... ... ...
57
46
31
95
French Africa ... ... ...
56
82
25
45
Near East Countries ... ...
11
-
5
5
Other Countries ... ... ...
-
-
-
-
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
136
134
68
155
Copra & Coconut Oil
Mozambique ... ... ...
35
-
43
2
40
2
40
2
Seychelles ... ... ... ...
5
-
6
-
5
-
5
-
Zanzibar ... ... ... ...
13
-
-
8
-
5
-
5
Ceylon ... ... ... ...
71
61
19
77
18
110
20
100
Indonesia ... ... ... ...
493
8
336
1
545
-
500
-
Malaya ... ... ... ...
87
40
5
57
-11
69
-
70
Philippines ... ... ... ...
292
160
702
71
772
77
700
75
Sarawak & British North Borneo ...
11
-
36
-
25
-
30
-
Fiji Isles ... ... ... ...
30
-
10
10
15
11
10
12
Papua & New Guinea ... ...
79
-
69
-
80
-
80
-
W. Samoa ... ... ... ...
12
-
14
-
15
-
15
-
Tonga Isles ... ... ... ...
12
-
15
-
20
-
15
-
0. British Oceania ... ... ...
37
-
40
-
47
-
45
-
French Oceania ... ... ...
24
-
23
-
28
-
30
-
Other Countries ... ... ...
50
-
25
2
30
-
30
-
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
1,251
269
1,343
1
228
1,629
-1
274
-
1,520
264
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
1,0
57
1,0
74
1,3
00
1,2
22
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For-Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
TABLE " G "-continued
CPYRG4YRLD EXPORTS OF OILSEEDS,` OILS & FATS-ANALYSIS BY COMMODITIES
ACTUAL
PARTLY ESTIMATED
FORECAST
1934-38
1950
1951
1952
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Palm Kernels & Palm Kernel Oil
Nigeria ... ... ...
333
-
417
353
-
380
-
Other British West Africa ... ...
83
-
77
-
75
-
80
-
Belgian Congo ... ... ...
78
-
84
15
86
17
85
20
French Africa ... ... ...
144
-
134
-
115
-
100
-
Portuguese Africa ... ... ...
21
-
35
-
35
-
35
-
Liberia ... ... ... ...
9
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
Indonesia ... ... ... ...
36
-
24
-
17
-
25
-
Malaya ... ... ... ...
6
-
9
-
12
1
10
1
Other Countries ... ... ...
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL
711
-
800
15
713
18
735
21
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
3
20
3
75
3
39
3
52
Palm Oil
Nigeria ... ... ... ...
137
176
152
170
Other British West Africa ... ...
2
2
3
3
Belgian Congo ... ... ...
60
130
130
135
French Africa ... ... ...
37
20
25
25
Portuguese Africa ... ... ...
5
17
15
15
Liberia ... ... ... ...
1
2
2
2
Indonesia ... ... ... ...
171
97
73
130
Malaya ... ... ... ...
34
52
46
55
Other Countries ... ... ...
-
-
-
-
TOTAL ... .. ... ...
447
496
446
535
Babassu Kernels & Babassu Oil
Brazil... ... ... ... ...
19
-
15
10
10
15
10
15
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
12
19
21
2
1
Linseed & Linseed Oil
Canada ... ... ...
-
-
77
8
37
-1
45
5
U.S.A. ... ... ...
-
-
90
11
95
8
60
20
Mexico ... ... ... ...
-
-
22
-
10
-
20
-
Argentine ... ... ... ...
1,541
-
139
206
180
252
20
100
Uruguay .. ... ...
73
-
1
23
10
20
30
20
French North Africa ... ...
8
-
44
2
5
-
20
-
Turkey ... .. ... ...
1
-
22
-
9
-
20
-
India ... ... ... ... ...
249
-
67
6
19
19
25
25
Other Countries ... ... ...
34
-
15
1
15
-
20
-
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
1,906
-
477
257
380
298
260
170
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
5
72
4
00
4
12
2
48
Oiticica Seed & Oiticica Oil
Brazil... ... ... ... ...
-
4
-
10
-
10
-
10
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
4
10
10
10
12
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
TABLE " G "-continued
FJ~ORLD EXPORTS OF OILSEEDS, OILS & FATS-ANALYSIS BY COMMODITIES
ACTUAL
PARTLY ESTIMATED
FORECAST
1934-38
1950
1951
1952
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Seed
Oil
Castor Beans & Castor Oil
Brazil... ... ... ... ...
92
-
84
25
50
30
70
30
Belgian Congo ... ... ...
-
-.
2
-
2
-
2
-
French Africa ... ... ...
4
-
3
2
-
3
Portuguese Africa ... _ ... ...
5
-
17
-
10
-
15
-
India ... ... ... ...
51
6
73
20
11
26
20
30
Other Countries ... ... ...
31
1
15
-
15
-
15
7
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
183
7
194
45
90
56
125
67
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
81
1
23
92
1
17
Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil ...
Sweden ... ... ... ...
-
-
41
15
85
14
90
15
Argentine ... ... ... ...
12
1
_
-
China... ... ... ... ...
27
-
2
2
10
2
10
2
India ... ... ... ... ...
33
1
-
10
1
5
10
10
Turkey ... ...
-
1
Other Countries ... ... ...
22
17
6
-
-
-
5
-
3
-
5
-
3
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
94
18
50
28
101
24
115
30
COMBINED TOTAL (as OIL) ...
5
1
4
5
5
9
7
0
Tung OR
Argentine ... ... ... ...
r-
8
9
10
China... ... ... ... ...
80
72
30
40
Other Countries ... ... ...
-
1
1
2
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
80
81
40
52
Other Vegetable Oilseeds & Oils (in
terms of Oil)
Brazil... ... ... ... ...
China & Manchuria (incl. Perilla)
-
51
4
12
5
3
5
5
India ... ... ... ... ...
Other Countries ... ... ...
13
5
11
35
20
30
20
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
64
32
63
60
Actual
Fat
Actual
Fat
Actual
Fat
Actual
Fat
Butter
Weight
Content
Weight
Content
Weight
Content
Weight
Content
Denmark ... ... ... ...
149
125
156
131
139
117
135
113
Eire ... ... ... ... ...
Netherlands ... ... ... ...
23
47
19
40
3
65
3
54
56
47
55
46
Norway ... ... ... ...
Sweden ... ... ... ...
-
23
-
19
4
14
3
12
3
27
3
22
3
24
3
20
U.S.A. ...
2
2
4
3
3
3
Argentine ... ... ... ...
8
7
9
8
8
7
6
5
Australia ... ... ...
100
84
65
54
37
31
15
12
New Zealand ... ... ...
140
118
140
118
165
139
170
143
Other Countries ... ... ...
105
88
2
2
3
3
1
1
TOTAL
595 1
500
460
387
442
372
412
346
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3 -
TABLE " G "-continued
WORLD EXPORTS OF OILSEEDS, OILS & FATS-ANALYSIS BY COMMODITIES
CPYRGHT Metric Tons (000)s
ACTUAL
PARTLY ESTIMATED
FORECAST
1934-38
1
950
1951
1952
Lard
Denmark ... ... ... ...
12
3
13
10
Netherlands ... ... ... ...
6
5
6
5
U.S.A. ... ... ... ... ...
100
237
335
330
Argentine ... ... ... ...
8
27
8
5
Other Countries ... ... ...
47
5
3
5
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
---173-_--
--
277 -
---
--
365
355
Other Edible & Inedible Animal Fats
(Tallow, Greases, etc.)
Denmark ... ... ... ...
11
13
8
10
U.S.A. ... ... ... ... ...
-
247
246
250
Argentine ... ... ... ...
62
50
10
15
Uruguay ... ... ... ...
9
5
5
5
Australia ... ... ... ...
30
20
15
15
New Zealand ... ... ... ...
27
32
25
25
Other Countries ... ... ...
23
-
--
-
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
-- ---
162
-
367
--
-
309
-
320
Fish Oils (including Liver Oils)
Norway... ... ... ... ...
46
(50)
(65)
(95)
Iceland ... ... ... ... ...
27
15
20
20
Canada & Newfoundland ... ...
I t
12
11
10
Falkland Isles ... ... ... ...
-
-
1
2
Union of S. Africa ... ... ...
--
5
5
10
Japan ... ... ... ... ...
34
6
8
10
U.S.A. ... ... ... ... ...
-
18
7
10
Other Countries ... ...
3
9
8
8
TOTAL .. , ... ... ...
121
115
125
165
Combined
Whale
Sperm
Whale
Sperm
Whale
Sperm
--
--
Whale Oil (including Sperm Oil)--
-- - -
---
--
---
--
-
--
Production taken as exports
Norway ... ... ... ...
200
168
11
160
22
166
24
U.K. (including S.A. expedition) ...
204
95
9
86
13
92
14
Netherlands ... ... ... ...
-
13
1
15
2
16
3
France ... ... ... ...
16
7
12
5
10
Portugal ... ... ... ...
-
-
2
1
4
1
2
U.S.S.R. ...
3
18
10
19
10
24
11
Union of S. Africa ... ... ...
--
6
3
10
5
10
5
Japan ... ... ... ... ...
25
28
6
26
8
36
13
Falkland Isles . ...
20
24
1
24
1
24
1
Germany ... ... ...
14
-
-
20
9
16
8
Other Countries ... ... ...
41
12
5
25
5
25
4
TOTAL ... ... ... ...
507
380
I
48
393
91
415
95
COMBINED TOTAL ... ...
507
428
4
84
5
10
GRAND TOTAL (as OIL) ...
5,829
5,445
5,613
5,736
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDF$3-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
TABLE " H "
STATEMENT SHOWING PRODUCTION OF OILS AND FATS (Domestic Materials)
CPYRGHT IN THE U.S.A.
(Including Oil Equivalent Domestic Oilseeds Exported)
CALENDAR YEARS
Average
Preliminary
Forecast
1937/41
1950
1951
1952
Butter (actual weight) ... ... ...
1,003
752
656
625
Lard and Rendered Pork Fat ... ... ...
881
1,200
1,320
1,350
Edible Tallow, etc.... ... ... ... ...
96
79
66
70
Soya Bean Oil ... ... ... ... ...
204
1,026
1,229
1,155
Cottonseed Oil ... ... ... ... ...
668
729
641
790
Groundnut Oil ... ... ... ... ...
40
76
90
68
Maize Oil ... ... ... ... ... ...
70
112
105
100
Olive Oil ... ... ... ... ... ...
3
1
1
2
Inedible Tallow and Greases ... ... ...
529
1,036
1,020
1,020
Fish and Marine Oils ... ... ... ...
108
74
62
50
Linseed Oil ... ... ... ... ... ...
126
372
378
295
Tung Oil ... ... ... ... ... ...
1
11
4
8
Other Industrial Oils (including Cod Liver) ...
8
14
15
30
GRAND TOTAL (including Water Content of
Butter) ...
3,737
5,482
5,587
5,563
GRAND TOTAL (excluding Water Content of
Butter) ... ... ... ... ...
3,543
5,335
5,459
5,440
Oil Equivalent of Oilseeds Exported (incl. above)
Soya Beans ... ... ... ... ...
14
85
109
110
Cottonseed ... ... ... ... ...
-
1
1
neg.
Groundnuts ... ... ... ... ...
-
10
10
8
Linseed ... ... ... ... ... ...
-
32
34
20
TOTAL ... ... ... ... .?.. ...
14
128
154
138
I
Pre-war to 1951 Based on U.S. Dept. of Agriculture statistics.
1952 Unilever forecast.
"
TABLE 441
U.S.A.: OIL AND FAT SUPPLIES
(OIL OR FAT CONTENT)
Metric Tons (000)s
CROP YEARS BEGINNING OCTOBER 1ST
1950/51(a)
1951/52(b)
1952/53 (Forecast)(b)
Production from Domestic Materials (including Oil
Equivalent Oilseeds Exported) ... ... ...
5,454
5,436
5,400
CALENDAR YEARS
1950
1951 (Preliminary)
1952 (Forecast)
Production (as above) ... ... ... ... ...
5,335
5,459
5,440
Stocks at beginning ... ... ... ... ...
948
869
1,031
? ? end (c) ... ... ... ... ... ...
869
1,031
say 1,030
Stock Pile (addition to) ... ... ... ... ...
say 100
say 70
say 50
Net Exports ... ... ... ... ... ...
347
570
560
Apparent Supply for Consumption (d) ... ...
4,878
4,537
4,710
Population (millions) (e) ... ... ... ... ...
151.2
153.3
155.5
Apparent per capita Supply (tbs.) ... ... ..
71.1
65.2
67.0
(a) Based on U.S. Dept. of Agriculture figures.
(b) Unilever estimates.
(rl Pxrlndiny etnek nilr
(d) Adjusted for military procurement ; stock
changes of secondary products, etc.
((p Pnpulation excludes armed forces overseas.
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-F3bP83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
CPYRGHT
INDEX OF CERTAIN OIL AND FAT PRICES (STERLING
EDIT) I
RELATI
T
it
PRICES
N
ON
O U
Y/iLEN
WHOLESALE
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OIL
WHALE OIL
Lj_ kit I-
MALAYAN
COCONUT OIL
-------- 1_7
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Lu;fIItrt'1ALE PRICE INDEX
1 11tt I i i I i i
TT -t --k T 1939 1940 1941 104A 1Q47 10,10 1- 1951 1952
IN m'
-- - AN. JUNE DEC. JUNE
Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDI 83-00423R000700280001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3
- Approved For Release 1999/09/10 : CIA-RDP83-00423R000700280001-3