THE SOVIET MILITARY ESTIMATES: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001400010015-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 29, 2006
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: March 13, 1969
• Content Type: MEMO

CENTRAL I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
SUBJECT: THE SOVIET MILITARY ESTIMATES: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS
A. Major military estimates
11and l -14 )
should be bound, at least i ittally, . as separate sections
in single looseleaf binder..
1. Eventually, it may be possible to merge these sections
B. Each major estimate should be completely re-done annually
for formal USIB consideration; that is, it should be
re-printed, but it need be modified only as required.
1. In addition, ONE should periodically (every 3-4+ months)
review these estimatesfor,purposes of updating and
bookkeeping changes.
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2. Minor changes made between-complete re-doe should be
cleared by USIB reps and subject to telephonic
concurrence; major changes would get Memo-to-Holders
treatment.
C. Complete revisions of the major estimates should be spaced
3-4+ months apart in order to spread the workload more
evenly through the year and to allow for more manpower
to be brought to bear on each successive estimate.
D. Each major section of the NIPP should be produced
concurrently with the corresponding NIB so that the
whole package
can be tabled simul-
NIB and NIPP
taneously for USIB consideration.
A. Each of the three major force estimates should be produced
in an All-Source.and Top Secret RD version. (NIE 11-14,
in a Secret version as wen.)
Be Much of the detail now appearing in the NIE's, such as
tables and prose descriptions of weapons will be relegated
to the NIPP; dross-references to the NIPP should appear
in the NIE'o.
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C. All text will be eliminated, :from the NIPP except
for the cautionary introductory section; instead the
NIPP will contain cross-references to the relevant
NIE's.
1. The TS ED versions of the estimates will serve
as companion pieces to the corresponding NIPP
sections, and vice versa; the two should be
distributed together and to the same recipients.
D. This division Of labor sw111 result in a shortening
of the NIPP, but not necessarily of the NIE's;
because the NIE's will become semi-permanent docu-
ments, we should like to include background and
historical data now excluded to save space.
A. It is beyond the power of this office to unseat the three
service intelligence chiefs from the USIB, nor is it
necessarily desirable.
1. This office, however, can and should make strong
representations to the DOI that they be deprived of
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voting rights; they would still be allowed to contribute
to the NIE'a and to participate as observes at the
B. ONE chairmanship of the reps meetings should be more
rigorous.
1. Substantive discussions should be limited to resolving
minor differences and to identifying the most
important substantive issues; "editorial" changes
should be left to the discretion-of the ONE staff.
2. The DIA representative. should be officially recognized
as spokesman for the service agencies; Army, Navy,
and Air Force reps should be permitted, however, to
register views peculiar to the services.
should support the ONE text; important substantive
changes should be made at the reps level only after
referral back to the BNE for consideration.
The Chairman and all other ; ONE representatives
C. For the major military estimates,, an intermediate level
of coordination should be set up between the reps' level
and the USIB.
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1. A meeting would be called to consider the cleaned-up
text that normally would go to USIB.
2. It would be attended by senior estimates officers
of the various agencies and chaired by the D/NE
Representatives would hav.o.'eonsulted their principals,
be empowered to speak for them, and be prepared to
table proposed changes or dissenting footnotes.
4+. ONE representatives would have discretionary authority
to accept revisions or footnotes.
A new draft would then be issued for USIB consideration,
which ideally would focus upon any changes recommended
by the DCI after his final review of the paper.
D. The CIA Member ofUSIB should have the option of footnoting
or DD/NE.
an estimate he disputes,
1. In the case of substantive disagreement between ONE
and an Agency component a'. CIA reservation would be
recorded in the draft estimate,
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E. To avoid any further degradation of estimative language
and, more particularly, to avoid the thoughtless
watering down of firm ,judgments,,. ONE should work to
obtain formal community agreement on Kent's lexicon.
1. This might be accomplished by a prefatory section in
the one-volume version of the NIE's which sets forth
the ground rules (as in the opening section of the
F. ONE should take action to make, its product more responsive
1. A series of conferences with major consumers (e.g.
Systems Analysis, the NBC.bteff, ` etc.) would start
the ball rolling, after which contact couldbe
maintained on a less formal basis.
NIPP).
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