THE ECONOMY AND SCIENTIFIC MANPOWER RESOURCES OF THE SOVIET UNION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP71T00730R000100010039-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 1999
• Sequence Number: 39
• Publication Date: January 31, 1956
• Content Type: REPORT

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THE ECONOMY
AND
SCIENTIFIC MANPOWER RESOURCES
OF THE SOVIET UNION
AnAddress Delivered by
ALLEN W. DULLES
to the
INDUSTRIAL ASSOCIATES
of the
CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
New York City
31 January 1956
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THE ECONOMY
AND
SCIENTIFIC MANPOWER RESOURCES
During the more than quarter of a century that has passed since
the consolidation of Stalin's power position in 1928, the Soviet Union
has risen from the status of a relatively underdeveloped country
to unquestioned rank as the second largest economy in the world.
This growth, even the more remarkable considering the destructive
effects of World War II, has been achieved by the transfer of
millions of workers from agriculture to urban occupations. At the
same time a prodigious effort has been made to educate large numbers
of Soviet citizens in modern skills and technology, and an unusually
large portion of total national product has been devoted to investment.
We estimate that 23 percent of Soviet gross national product goes
directly into capital investment--the base for expansion of future
military capabilities. Only 15 percent of our own gross national
product is used for capital investment purposes. By such means, the
USSR has obtained a very rapid expansion in industrial output. As a
logical result, the welfare of the population has been treated as a
minimum requirement in planning and as a residual in plan execution.
Two examples makes this clear:
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First, while capital goods output was rising over tenfold,
agricultural production failed to match even the growth of popu-
lation, indicating a decline in living standards.
Second, plan goals for heavy industry are usually surpassed,
while the correspondingly modest goals for consumer goods are
chronically underfulfilled.
At the present time the total output (gross national product) of
the USSR is more than a third that of the United States and about three-
quarters again as large as that of the third largest economy, the United
Kingdom. In general, Soviet production of capital goods and basic
materials forms a larger proportion of their total output than does
equivalent production in the United States. For example, despite a
gross national product only one-third as large, Soviet production of
coal and of machine tools today is about equal to that of the United
States; at the same time, USSR output of automobiles is less than one-
eightieth of our own.
My people have read with interest your publication Resources of
the World. As applied to the Soviet Union, the problem of food
availability appears to be more difficult of solution than the problems
of raw material, energy resource, and technical manpower scarcities.
Both historical review and current analysis of Soviet economic policy dis W
dl o s e greater determination and success in coping with the latter
three problems than in increasing the adequacy and variety of their food
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In their struggle to provide an adequate and varied diet the Soviets
have inaugurated their "new lands" program to increase grain supplies.
Whether or not this program will in the long run meet with the hoped
for success remains a big question. The lack of adequate rainfall
makes success doubtful. Soviet land resources are not unlimited as
pointed up by Soviet experience this past year in seeding areas to
grain that are even now being abandoned to return to grass. The in-
crease in acreage will eventually reach its limit and alone cannot be
expected to solve the problem of feeding an ever-increasing population.
If the Soviet ever expect to fulfill their promises of a more varied
and high quality diet for their people, they must invest heavily in agri-
culture and related industries. They must greatly increase the avail-
ability of fertilizers and special purpose machinery for tilling and
harvesting corn, vegetables and other crops as well as machinery re-
quired in developing their animal industry.
Even with, a maximum effort of expanding acreage and heavy invest-
ment in the means of production, it is probable that the increasing
population will overtake availabilities and the Soviets will be forced to
increase their imports of quality foods.
The recently announced Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-1960) continues
the traditional Soviet policy of emphasizing expansion of heavy industrial
output. The accompanying chart shows their industrial production in
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billions of dollars as compared to that of the United States. As can be
seen, total Soviet industrial production in 1960 will be nearly two-
fifths as great as that of the United States. By contrast, in 1950 Soviet
industry was only one-fifth as large as that of the US. To maintain
this rapid rate of growth, the USSR must stress labor productivity
even more heavily than in the past. The two-thirds Increase in invest-
ment and the preoccupation with technology indicated in the new Plan
underscore the vital role Soviet officialdom has accorded to investment
as the chief factor in continued rapid growth. Although Soviet industry
and the Soviet economy as a whole may experience a somewhat slower
rate of growth in the next five years than in the immediate past, expan-
sion both in the total Soviet output and in the industrial component of
total output will substantially exceed the rates forecast for the United
States.
Developments in the USSR over the next five years will significantly
strengthen the Soviet's war supporting potential. It is expected that the
output of the electronics industry, which contributes many essential
items required in high performance military equipment (including
guided missiles), will be tripled or quadrupled. Also, in the field of
special heat resistant alloys where the Soviet have done so much funda-
mental research, the new five year plan calls for a sixfold increase in
production.
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We see no evidence of any weakening in the Soviet leaders' deter-
mination to implement the master plan under which their economy is
operating. It is the clear intent of the Soviet leaders to overtake and
surpass American production and they fully appreciate the role of
science and technology in the attainment of this goal. This was clearly
stated by Lazar Kaganovich, First Deputy Chairman of the Presidium.
of the Council of Ministers, who said:
Only through the wide and rapid introduction of the
newest achievements of our own and world-wide science
and technology can we reach a level of productivity higher
than that of capitalism, which is necessary for the victory
of communism.
The persons upon whom the USSR imposes this ambitious objective
are men and women who have been highly trained for their scientifyc-
technical task. Since they first entered school they have received
training which emphasized science, and they have been offered no
electives. Every Soviet high school graduate has received five years
of training in physics, five in biology, four in chemistry, ten in mathe -
matics, and a year of astronomy. Compare this program with that of
American high school students. Less than ten percent of our high
school graduates have taken as much as a year of physics and chemistry,
and only three and a half percent take any advanced mathematics such its
solid geometry or trigonometry. Recently, Soviet schools have increased
the number of practical subjects such as machine operation and practice
farming at the expense of the humanities.
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Beyond the high school level, the Soviet student may attend three
types of higher educational institutions:
(1) Specialized engineering and technical colleges--about 180
in the physical sciences--which offer four- to five-year courses in
such specialized fields as machine building and construction. These
schools are sponsored by the various ministries, and they supply
engineers and specialists trained for the purposes of the respective
ministries.
(2) About 24 polytechnical institutes, which offer four- to
six-year courses in broad technical fields.
(3) Thirty-three universities, which offer courses of five to
five and a half years emphasizing broad and fundamental knowledge.
Most university graduates enter teaching, but the better students in
the sciences are funneled into research.
Two advanced degrees may be granted the Soviet student after
graduate study: the Kandidat degree, which is roughly comparable to
our Ph. D., and the Doktor degree, which is an advanced degree with
no counterpart in the United States. In 1954, about 9,400 Soviets
received Kandidat degrees, and about 9, 000 Americans received
Ph. D's. ; about. 8,100 of the Soviet degrees were awarded in scientific
fields, as compared to 5, 000 of the U. S. degrees. Thus, about 85
percent of Soviet Kandidat degrees, as compared with about 55 percent
of U. S. Ph, D's., are awarded in the natural sciences.
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The USSR now has about two-thirds the number of scientists that
the U. S. has in the research and teaching aspects of physical and
biological sciences; 175, 000 versus 265, 000. In research alone, the
USSR has about half the U. S. number; 120, 000 versus perhaps
210, 000.
Soviet colleges receive about 500, 000 students and graduate about
250, 000 each year. Total U. S. entrants and graduates are about 10
percent higher, but the Soviet train a far greater proportion in the
sciences than we do. This is the key to the outlook for the future. In
1955 about 60 percent of graduating full-time Soviet students were in
scientific and technical fields compared with about 25 percent in the
U. S. In 1955, the Soviet Union graduated from all schools about 80, 000
in the physical sciences and engineering and about 50, 000 in the life
sciences. In the U. S. about 37, 000 were graduated in the physical
sciences and 35, 000 in the biological sciences. At this greater rate of
graduation in sciences--now 130, 000 annually in the Soviet Union as
opposed to 72, 000 in the U. S. --the Soviets will attain an imposing
advantage in numbers of scientists and engineers in a few years' time
if they and we continue at our present rates.
Usefulness to the state is the dominant criteria governing the
directiondd students into the various curricula. The state thus con-
trols by admission to advanced training the numbers of physicists,
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chemists, and so on. Similarly, upon completion of his education,
the fledgling Soviet scientist is offered positions according to state
needs. All attempts to favor selection of "proletarians" were
abandoned at the end of 1935.
Women comprise a much larger proportion of college graduates
in the USSR than in the U. S. In the USSR, women compose about 50
percent of the student body of higher educational institutions, as
compared to about 25 to 35 percent in the U. S. In the field of
education as much as 70 percent of each country's graduates are
women. In health fields a comparably large proportion is occupied by
Soviet women, while in engineering and agricultural fields, those in
which there are a negligible number of U. S. women, Soviet women
constitute a substantial minority. Soviet women professionals are
employed largely in industry and teaching--about 35 percent of all
teachers in higher educational establishments are women.
For promising students, a state-financed education in science
is a likely prospect. As rewards for hard work and success, the
aspiring scientists can look forward to high rank expressed in terms
of preferential treatment in salary, housing, and perquisites. State
prizes worth several thousands of dollars await many kinds of out-
standing scientific accomplishments.
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Technicians and skilled labor are also important in the Soviet
scientific-technical effort. The Soviets are more apt than we to
obtain their foremen and skilled labor from their educational system
than from practical experience in industry. Supporting technicians are
drawn from the same elementary schools that supply college entrants.
Seven-year education is compulsory and nearly universal. Over
recent years, only about 10 percent of students entering the first grade
have graduated from the tenth grade. Most students, before reaching the
tenth grade, have been absorbed into factory and trade schools, which
supply skilled labor, and into technicums, which are schools roughly
comparable to our technical high schools, conducting three to four
years of specialized training. Short-term technicums are now being
established to accommodate the demand for skilled technicians from
among the increasing numbers of ten-year school graduates who cannot
be admitted to universities or colleges.
Between 1914 and 1954 about 1. 2 million skilled laborers were
trained in specialized semi-professional schools, and an additional
600, 000 since 1.949 have been trained in extension courses. This
respresents a dramatic effort on the*part of the USSR to overcome a
deficiency in skilled supporting manpower.
Let us now look at the Soviet scientific research effort which is
supported by the scientists and skilled technicians we have been
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talking about. The Soviet scientific research effort is organized
along the following three general lines:
(1) Both fundamental and applied research are conducted by the
Academy of Sciences, USSR, and the academies of sciences of the
constituent Union Republics. Responsible directly to their respective
councils of ministers, they have no true counterparts in the West.
They account for one-tenth of Soviet scientific manpower and include
many of the Soviet Union's top scientists.
(2) Research institutes of industrial and other economic mini-
stries employ about two-fifths of all Soviet scientists and are roughly
comparable to government, commercial, and private research estab-
lishments and laboratories in the U. S. A notable example is the
Central Aerohydrodynamics Institute which does work comparable to
the laboratories of our National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics.
(3) Higher educational institutions employ the remaining half
of the Soviet scientists as teachers. This segment has recently been
criticized for failing to provide its share of useful research in the way
that American university scientists do.
Research is not as carefully planned and coordinated as might be
expected in a totalitarian economy. There is much parallelism since
each ministry plans its own research program. There is the heavy
hand of bureaucracy as shown by the comment of the vice president
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of the Soviet Academy of Medical Sciences, "We not only organize
badlyr, ,but we :constantly reorganize. " The Academy of Sciences,
USSR, is attempting by a community structure to coordinate activities
on a project basis.
Furthermore, the Communist Party has great power and is an
effective means of insuring coordination in areas of high priority.
We can see the effect of party discipline in such program as atomic
energy, guided missiles, aircraft, and electronics. For example, the
Soviet Five-Year Plan recently announced plans for the construction in
the period 1956-1960 of 2, 000 to 2, 500 megawatts of electrical power
generating capacity using nuclear energy. Under present planp,tlthe
U. S. will construct approximately 800 megawatts capacity in the
same period. Even granting an economic need for this formidable
Soviet goal, we can also see its political expediency and the dramatic
support it gives to Soviet propaganda lines.
On the other side of the ledger, party interference in genetics
during the Lysenko controversy certainly contributed to the Soviets'
sizeable agricultural problems. Generally speaking, however, party
interference has not presented a major obstacle to progressive
research.
Party and government policy assures adequate funds for scientific
research. In terms of gross national product, the Soviet research
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expenditure of about one percent is comparable to our own. A direct
dollar comparison of the Soviet and U. S. expenditures is not feasible,
but there may be less disparity between the research efforts of the
two countries than would be indicated by the 1:3 relationship between
Soviet and U. S. gross national product.
The most universal means of encouraging efficient utilization of
research resources is an effective method for the dissemination of
scientific knowledge. The Soviets have a comprehensive system of
abstracting the world's scientific literature which puts them in an
enviable position to exploit foreign developments. We have examples
of published American scientific articles appearing in Soviet ab-
stracting journals before their appearance in the comparable American
abstracting journals. Such an effective abstracting service makes a
considerable contribution to the direction of the research effort toward
promising investigations and to the elimination of duplication?
Soviet research has achieved some notable results. Its achieve-
ments vary according to the nature of the research itself and accord-
ing to the field of probable application. Generally, Soviet scientists
are quite good in theory; in the theoretical aspects of physics, for
example, the Soviets are on a par with any country in the world, their
theoretical metallurgy is outstanding, and some of their research into
human nervous system, following the Pavlovian school, is qualitatively
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unique. They may tend to lag a bit in experimental work, but there
are enough exceptions here to make such a generalization precarious.
Certainly, we have to give full credit to their development of a ten
billion volt proton synchrotron, the largest particle accelerator in
the world.
Soviet research achievements are incorporated in Soviet technology
through a system of priorities. The Soviet economy does not have the
capacity to absorb research results in all fields as does ours. Greatest
use of research results therefore is made in areas essential to national
power and military strength as opposed to the consumption sector of
the civil economy. The latter has been little affected by scientific
research and development.
In summary, these are the highpoints of this review of the economy
and.scientifxc manpower resources of the Soviet Union:
A. During the post war period, the Soviet economy has
continued to expand at an unprecedented rate.
B. The Soviet leaders realize that the continued expansion
of their economy and thus their war-making potential is dependent on
a continually increasing corps of scientists and engineers.
C. Their pool of highly trained scientists and engineers, now
approximately equal to that of the U. S. , is being increased at a pro-
portionately greater rate than ours--in a few years we may see them
attain a decisive advantage in total numbers.
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. D. A vigorous program of training of specialized technicians
will improve their relative standing in this important category.
E. By the functioning of state control the Soviets are able to
direct the stream of trained scientists into proper channels according
to need.
F. There is no sparing of funds for scientific research.
G. It is the. announced Soviet intention to utilize the best of
available foreign scientific knowledge and they have instituted a large-
scale system for such exploitation.
H. Scientific achievement is encouraged by a system of awards
and special privileges which elevates scientists to the top rung in the
communist version of the socio-economic ladder.
I. The USSR makes full use of the contribution which women
can make to its scientific effort.
These are statements worth pondering.
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CHART WILL BE FORWARDED
AT A LATER DATE
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